NFBC Message Boards

We're happy to welcome our friend and NFBC participant Todd Zola from FantasyBaseball.com to our message boards for a chat session today. Todd will be here at 2 p.m. ET so bring your questions and we'll have plenty of fun as we gear up for the weekend and get closer to selling out the 2008 NFBC.

Todd, What do you think is the weakest postion this year? Other than Catcher.

Todd, I'm kinda heavy. OK I'm fat. Today is my birthday. Really! Where do I go to buy pants?

Are the results of auction drafts so dependant on the "call out" order that the only value that can be discerned is when similar players are called out fairly close to each other?



If an entire draft reversed its call out order...do you think the prices on many upper tier players could change extremely or only slightly due to money available?



Has the trend in popularity of auction drafting been rising as fast as you thought it would, why or why not?



~Lance

I've got some time, so I will knock off a few early.



What do you think is the weakest postion this year? Other than Catcher According to our current projections, it is second base, BUT there are ample second baseman in the pool to get a player with positive value, so I do not recommend reaching for one early in the name of scarcity. There is a big difference between a scarce pool and a weak pool. Second base is a WEAK pool, not scarce. Basically, there are a ton of mediocre to below mediocre 2B.



Here is a chart showing the breakdown of the positive NFBC pool based on our latest numbers:



POS

#

HR$

RBI$

SB$

BA$

R$

TOTAL



C

30

$2.15

$2.06

$0.84

$1.57

$1.78

$8.40



1B

24

$4.04

$2.88

$0.42

$3.40

$2.90

$13.64



2B

27

$1.99

$1.86

$2.13

$2.82

$2.06

$10.87



3B

21

$3.15

$2.09

$2.67

$3.25

$3.37

$14.52



SS

22

$2.59

$3.08

$3.98

$4.63

$2.38

$16.67



OF

86

$3.40

$2.78

$2.31

$2.26

$2.60

$13.35

Hey Todd!



What is the draw to AL or NL only leagues?



Is it being able to "game" a weaker draft pool?



Is it easier for the specialist to win? (the advantage over newcomers being great)



Is it more tradition based?



It is nice to see guys that don't even get drafted in mixed leagues have solid values in these "segregation" leagues!



~Lance

I'm kinda heavy. OK I'm fat. Today is my birthday. Really! Where do I go to buy pants? For those employed, Casual Male XXL

For those not so employed, Walmart

There has been alot of talk about Pujols on these boards. At one point are you taking him?

What is the draw to AL or NL only leagues? For me, it is the fact you have to be familiar with the entire 25-man roster and also stay on top of roster movement.



In addition, I think more emphasis needs to be placed on the draft with respect to risk-taking, especially pitching, as you margin of error is smaller as the replacement pool is not nearly as plush as mixed leagues.



The downside is one or two injuries and you can be FUBAR.



I DO NOT believe single leagues are "harder". The quality of your fellow competitors dictates the level of competition, regardless of the format.

Which of these closers do you like and which ones are you avoiding?



Valverde

F. Cordero

Saito

Rivera

Wagner

Hoffman

Jenks

There has been alot of talk about Pujols on these boards. At one point are you taking him? Pre-injury speculation, Pujols was my number 2 pick. This was based on the fact that I do not buy into the protection argument, though his R and RBI will take a hit. I also believe you can get SB later and I give BIG points to consistency and track record. Last year, Pujols was #1 for me, with ARod #2.



Fast forward to now. In his favor is Pujols has been playing with the injury for a couple of years, so if he can withstand the pain, he can produce. Additionally, he was a "history" of worrying us in the spring, recall the plantar fascitis scare a couple of years ago.



My current thinking is to lump him in with the other "risky" first rounders. Not necessarily in this order, I would pass on him for Holliday, ARod, Wright, Utley, Cabrera, Rollins, H Ramirez and Reyes. So at 9 he is in play for me.

What is your opinion on this fairly new trend of playing regular season games out of country? (MLB and NFL)



Is it just to sell more cable subscriptions/PPV, or are they trying to lure players to the US???



They are not going to create a franchise in Japan or Deep Mexico/central America (and add even MORE flying hours to an already ridiculous amount)...so what's the deal?



It's G-Damn Un-American! (John Wayne)



~Lance

Which of these closers do you like and which ones are you avoiding? Valverde -- wonderful 2007 aside, performance and health risk



F. Cordero -- one of my favorites as he usually can be had at below value. His peripherals are usually better than his actual results and to me, that is more fluke.



Saito -- will go WAY too high for me. He will be drafted based on last year's numbers, which will regress.



Rivera -- sort of a wild card in that some draft him too early based on his name and some late because they fear a slide.



Wagner -- like him, but won't take a closer where he willend up going



Hoffman -- scares the bejeebers out of me, lives off the change and the mph difference between the not-so-much-anymore-heater and the change is dwindling, plus an injury risk.



Jenks -- like F. Cordero, the type of "second" tier guyi target.



[ February 28, 2008, 12:05 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote: Which of these closers do you like and which ones are you avoiding? Valverde -- wonderful 2007 aside, performance and health risk



F. Cordero -- one of my favorites as he usually can be had at below value. His peripherals are usually better than his actual results and to me, that is more fluke.



Saito -- will go WAY too high for me. He will be drafted based on last year's numbers, which will regress.



Rivera -- sort of a wild card in that some draft him too early based on his name and some late because they fear a slide.



Wagner -- like him, but won't take a closer where he will end up going



Hoffman -- scares the bejeebers out of me, lives off the change and the mph difference between the not-so-much-anymore-heater and the change is dwindling, plus an injury risk.



Jenks -- like F. Cordero, the type of "second" tier guyi target. [/QUOTE]

What is your opinion on this fairly new trend of playing regular season games out of country? (MLB and NFL)

The short answer is I honestly don't care, so long as the games are on my TV.



With respect to baseball though, I wish even more focus was put on keeping the better athletes in baseball. I just think it is a real hard sell to an 18-21 year old to spend their summers riding buses between small towns no one has ever heard of.

Since you put alot of stock in consistency, what are your thoughts on Juan Pierre? He has stolen between 45-65 bases the last 6 years, has a sizable contract, and plays for a veteran-friendly manager. However with Andre Either breathing down his neck, are you skeptical he'll be in the lineup enough to produce those #'s? Are there other 'Judys' you'd take before him? Tavares? Bourn? I am assuming that you'd roster a 'Judy', which may be a false assumption.

How can you numbers crunch the following?...



A players goal setting for individual stat targets?



The look in a players eyes. (Like they "get it" or are driven.)



A players good or bad habits, or clubhouse chemistry/leadership?



That something special you can just see/feel when watching a player?



As a number cruncher...how much (if at all) do you sway your player evaluations on stuff that cannot be tracked with numbers?



~Lance

Does Barry Bonds get a start somewhere? What would he be worth?

Todd, who is your "Rollins" type pick this year in Rd 1?

Since you put alot of stock in consistency, what are your thoughts on Juan Pierre? He has stolen between 45-65 bases the last 6 years, has a sizable contract, and plays for a veteran-friendly manager. However with Andre Either breathing down his neck, are you skeptical he'll be in the lineup enough to produce those #'s? Are there other 'Judys' you'd take before him? Tavares? Bourn? I am assuming that you'd roster a 'Judy', which may be a false assumption. Starting at the end, I won't go into a draft planning to roster a Judy, but if the early rounds leave me devoid of speed, I will do it, since I won't reach for speed early just for the sake of getting some.



Pierre worries me from a playing time aspect, because as you suggest, he is remarkably consistent. His contact rate and BABIP are both stable. You'll get your .290 BA, but will it be over 400 or 650 AB?



A trade is not a sure thing, though it is likely. Boston is probably going to move Crisp. Lofton is a free agent, as is Corey Patterson.



While I prefer to take a guy like Victorino earlier, I would consider Bourn and Pierre once the rounds hit double digits.

Are stolen bases still the most valuable in your Projections?

Who was the first to coin the now fun to say "Judy"?

With the way Congress has handled all the b.s. proceedings/wasting of tax dollars, are you at all concerned with how they handle other things in our country?



I know we feel the ramifications of their decision everyday, but to see how they handled everything, it's very scary IMO.

Todd,



Do you think any of these guys will put up better #'s than Randy Winn this year Bruce/Rasmus/Maybin/C.Gomez ?

As a number cruncher...how much (if at all) do you sway your player evaluations on stuff that cannot be tracked with numbers? IF the player HAS this stuff, it should already be reflected in the numbers so to further adjust would be the projection version of double dipping.



That said, I am not a 100% numbers guy.



90% -- yeah, probably.