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I wondered what other guys think about when they pick their KDS?

Do you mostly just think about the first two rounds, figuring that after that drafts are too unique to predict?

Do you go deep into the draft to pick it?

Do you think about where you want to be for runs on starters or closers?

Do you just target a certain first or second round player and go for the pick you can use to get him?



I just wondered what other people think about. I don't think anyone would be giving away their own KDS choices by saying what factors they consider.

Originally posted by freddiezee:

I wondered what other guys think about when they pick their KDS?

Do you mostly just think about the first two rounds, figuring that after that drafts are too unique to predict?

Do you go deep into the draft to pick it?

Do you think about where you want to be for runs on starters or closers?

Do you just target a certain first or second round player and go for the pick you can use to get him?



I just wondered what other people think about. I don't think anyone would be giving away their own KDS choices by saying what factors they consider. Many different theories in my opinion. Some say that the top 4 are so much better than the rest that no matter what happens in round 2, you are ahead of the game by getting Arod, Wright, Ramirez, or Reyes. For me - I like the middle section based purely on being in position to grab value picks as they fall. If your picks are 25 spots apart, hard to do. In the middle your picks are only 15-16 spots apart - lots of players "fall" 15 spots. All that being said - seems like a pick 13 / 18 / 43 / 48 combo this year looks so much more enticing to me than a 2 / 29 / 32/ 59.

Originally posted by freddiezee:



I wondered what other guys think about when they pick their KDS?



Do you mostly just think about the first two rounds, figuring that after that drafts are too unique to predict? No



Do you go deep into the draft to pick it? Yes



Do you think about where you want to be for runs on starters or closers? Yes



Do you just target a certain first or second round player and go for the pick you can use to get him? No


[ March 02, 2008, 05:00 PM: Message edited by: King of Queens ]

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by freddiezee:



I wondered what other guys think about when they pick their KDS?



Do you mostly just think about the first two rounds, figuring that after that drafts are too unique to predict? No



Do you go deep into the draft to pick it? Yes



Do you think about where you want to be for runs on starters or closers? Yes



Do you just target a certain first or second round player and go for the pick you can use to get him? No[/QUOTE]Fred- every guy I have talked to that has had a lot of success like Glenn has does it that way too.

Are we as drafters THAT predictable?



Amazing to me that some consensus draft day ADP/cheatsheet would be followed THAT closely by enough NFBC drafters to be assumed to have real predictability beyond 4 rounds.



You take away the best 60 MLB players...and you can STILL have a solid guess to how the next few rounds will play out?



Amazing.



~Lance

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Are we as drafters THAT predictable?



Amazing to me that some consensus draft day ADP/cheatsheet would be followed THAT closely by enough NFBC drafters to be assumed to have real predictability beyond 4 rounds.



You take away the best 60 MLB players...and you can STILL have a solid guess to how the next few rounds will play out?



Amazing.



~Lance Ummm, yes and yes

Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Are we as drafters THAT predictable?



Amazing to me that some consensus draft day ADP/cheatsheet would be followed THAT closely by enough NFBC drafters to be assumed to have real predictability beyond 4 rounds.



You take away the best 60 MLB players...and you can STILL have a solid guess to how the next few rounds will play out?



Amazing.



~Lance Ummm, yes and yes [/QUOTE]I understand to a degree, Spy...but to say you can predict within 4 draft spots of when you will miss out on a SP or RP run to me is BS.



Sure...you can start or be in on the beginning of a run...but beyond that?



Actually...the more I think about it...you're right.



I still think we are too sheep-like and it disappoints me that we are.



~Lance

Once the "tier one" in each category are drafted...predicting the rest is gonna be filled with surprises IMO.



~Lance

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by Spyhunter:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Are we as drafters THAT predictable?



Amazing to me that some consensus draft day ADP/cheatsheet would be followed THAT closely by enough NFBC drafters to be assumed to have real predictability beyond 4 rounds.



You take away the best 60 MLB players...and you can STILL have a solid guess to how the next few rounds will play out?



Amazing.



~Lance Ummm, yes and yes [/QUOTE]I understand to a degree, Spy...but to say you can predict within 4 draft spots of when you will miss out on a SP or RP run to me is BS.



Sure...you can start or be in on the beginning of a run...but beyond that?



Actually...the more I think about it...you're right.



I still think we are too sheep-like and it disappoints me that we are.



~Lance [/QUOTE]We really are sheep. It is pretty amazing, you can often get extremely close in predicting who you will be able to get for the first 150 picks I have found. Then it begins to get random, but even up to round 15-17 it is often easy to predict.

Since Vegas is "sold out"...maybe we can get the league personnel and KDS done so I can get to that predicting!!!



In my humble opinion...Draft day is comparable to Christmas to a 5 year old...



The day they notify us of who's in our individual leagues is like a friends bachelor party...or a Birthday...great (like turning 21) if you avoid the star drafters...and more like turning 40 or the big five-oh, if you get some stud NFBC ballers in your league.



...and when they announce draft slots...it's like a Halloween! Great if you get your favorite slot...like having young kids and walking the local streets as their eyes are wide open and happy, followed by a Costume Party...but if you get your least favorite slot...it could be more like being home alone...passing out candy to a bunch of "too old to be trick-or-treating punks...with the occasional egging of home!



~Lance

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Since Vegas is "sold out"...maybe we can get the league personnel and KDS done so I can get to that predicting!!!



In my humble opinion...Draft day is comparable to Christmas to a 5 year old...



The day they notify us of who's in our individual leagues is like a friends bachelor party...or a Birthday...great (like turning 21) if you avoid the star drafters...and more like turning 40 or the big five-oh, if you get some stud NFBC ballers in your league.



...and when they announce draft slots...it's like a Halloween! Great if you get your favorite slot...like having young kids and walking the local streets as their eyes are wide open and happy, followed by a Costume Party...but if you get your least favorite slot...it could be more like being home alone...passing out candy to a bunch of "too old to be trick-or-treating punks...with the occasional egging of home!



~Lance Lance, since you're drafting in Vegas, how will you feel if you get your 15th KDS preference AND get stuck in a league with Childs etal?

Exactly like I'd feel if I hid in the dark from trick or treaters as I turned 50 years old all alone on Halloween night, and when I checked to see what the damage from what sounded like eggs hitting my walls was...I notice someone took all the candy from the bowl I left on the front porch...and pooped in it!



BRING IT ON!!!



~Lance

I usually go out 4 rounds. Anything beyond that is way too unpredicatable and would be pure guess and hope on my part.

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Exactly like I'd feel if I hid in the dark from trick or treaters as I turned 50 years old all alone on Halloween night, and when I checked to see what the damage from what sounded like eggs hitting my walls was...I notice someone took all the candy from the bowl I left on the front porch...and pooped in it!



BRING IT ON!!!



~Lance Nah, Childs would go easy on you. At the very least, he'd make sure to leave some Judyfruits in your bowl.

Ha!



Judyfruits!



Very nice!



~Lance

Originally posted by King of Queens:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Exactly like I'd feel if I hid in the dark from trick or treaters as I turned 50 years old all alone on Halloween night, and when I checked to see what the damage from what sounded like eggs hitting my walls was...I notice someone took all the candy from the bowl I left on the front porch...and pooped in it!



BRING IT ON!!!



~Lance Nah, Childs would go easy on you. At the very least, he'd make sure to leave some Judyfruits in your bowl. [/QUOTE]Funny chit there!