For those who are bored waiting for the season..
Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 2:15 pm
NFBC Draft Slot One Game Planning
I’m going to take a look at draft position number one. I’m assuming Alex Rodriguez will be the first pick. If you would like someone else, you can follow the draft slot where the player was selected. By taking A-Rod, you have an edge in homeruns, runs, and RBI. He should be a plus in batting average and help out in the steals category.
On the 2/3 turn you will have many different way to go. Are you a balance player? Do you want more power? Are there any players from scarce positions available? Are you intrigued by any starting pitcher?
I really don’t think Santana or Peavy make it to you, but if they did. You would have to ask yourself: if I take a pitcher, what kind of player will be available in the round where you most likely would draft your first starter? Would Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Beckett be better than Michael Young and Jake Peavy? The question could even harder than that because you might not be deciding between two players who play the same position. I would be surprised if Santana made it to the 2/3 turn. If he did, you have to be ready to adjust your game plan. I can’t see myself pulling the trigger on Peavy. I think he is a great pitcher, but he will always go too early for my draft style. In the back of my head, I think he is going to break down one of these years. The same could have been said about Pedro Martinez in his prime, but I had no problem going after him. I guess if you have had success drafting a player, it is easier to go back to him.
If you want to go for power on the 2/3 turn, it will be available for sure. You will have your choice of a few first basemen. Troy Tulowitzki looks like the best middle infielder with power. Unless Lance Berkman makes it to the turn, Travis Hafner, Derek Lee and Justin Morneau offer the most power as first base. It’s nice to grab the power, but I think I would pass on it to build a balanced team.
I think Alexis Rios or Nick Markakis have the best balance of age, speed, power, and average. It might be a little harder to believe that Markakis will run which might make it harder to draft him. Russell Martin is hot commodity this year. He is getting draft anywhere in the second round. If he made to the turn, I would have to consider him. My target two players would be Rios and Martin. I could see Rios getting over 25 homeruns and 25 steals. Many fantasy players don’t like to draft a catcher early, but Martin offers a chance at 20 homeruns and 10+ steals. I really think he will be gone by the turn, but I have to game plan with him as a possibility.
If a better player like Carlos Lee or even Carlos Beltran made it to your pick. It is automatic pick. If an outfielder made it, most likely Martin is gone. I think I would still take Rios with whoever slid to me. If everyone else is gone, I might lean toward Derrek Lee. I think there is a drop off at first base after Adrian Gonzalez. Lee would offer a couple of steals at first in addition to the power. I would have to take Gonzalez on the 4/5 turn because I don’t think he will make it back to me on the 6/7 turn. After that the best first baseman would be Helton, Delgado and Loney. All of these players will have less power except for Delagado. Delgado has more risk because of age. All of these players will come into play if you draft Martin.
I going to move forward with assumption I have Rodriguez, Rios, and Lee after my first three picks. I’m short on speed and have no middle infielders. I would be looking for Kinsler, Furcal, Figgins, Cano, and Mauer. Kinsler will offer a package of 20/20 with a lower batting average. Furcal could get 15/40 and hit for average. Figgins is a tough player because he only qualifies at third base. He will steal the most bases and could hit around 10 homeruns. There is always the chance he could qualify at SS or 2nd at some point in the season. He has the most value at one of those positions. Joe Mauer is a better player than Russell Martin, but he has yet to show power and he hasn’t stayed healthy. Cano would be a top second baseman who hasn’t shown any speed at this point. He would be drafted higher if he could bat in the top three of the Yankee’s lineup. My best bet would be to take Furcal and hope for a bounce back year. He is a player you will have to watch in the mock drafts. I think if you try to finesse him on the 6/7 turn, you could get burnt. Each draft will be different. I had a draft against top players and none of these players made it to the 4/5 turn. If they are all gone, Adam Dunn and Chris Young (AZ) will be there. While both players offer negative batting average, they do have interesting skills. Dunn is all power and good for 40 homeruns. Young could hit over 25 homeruns player and steals 25 plus bases. I don’t think the team is structured to take both players. It might be worth a shot to take Young if you felt as though he could hit over .260. It is a gamble for sure and you could be sacrificing your pitching staff be drafting him. My first choice would be Furcal because he plays short and has the most speed. Kinsler would be the next choice. If they both made it, I would have to jump at it. I think Furcal is a 50/50 shot at being there on the 4/5 turn. I have seen him go a lot later which would be a steal. If you don’t get a middle infielder here, the choices will start to get thin. If you believe in Weeks, I don’t think he make it back. Kendrick should be there on the 6/7 turn if you believe he is ready to step up. After that Lugo might offer the most steals, you might need to grab him in the 11th round. You can find a serviceable SS with power later on, but you will have tough time finding a base stealer with some power. I think the next 4 rounds will set up your team.
If I pass on hitting, I should be able to get a top closer and a starter of my choice on the 4/5 turn. If I wait until the 6/7 turn, I will have to choose from the leftovers. The early draft I did 16 starters were gone by the time the 6/7 turn rolled around. There were only 7 closers drafted at the point. In March, I believe the closer will go earlier in the fourth round. It will help you in two ways. I think it will push back the middle infielders where you have a shot at one on the 4/5 turn and it will push back a few starters to the 6/7 turn. I guess the biggest question will be: who do you want as your ace? I believe there should only be 4 or 5 starters gone by the 4/5 turn. If there are more taken, you know your choices will be less on the 6/7 turn. After reviewing all my options, I would want the Furcal 1st and Kinsler 2nd. I would push my pitching back to solidify my infield. If I get only one, I would then take my first choice at ace. If starters started to go early, I would take my advantage at closer. If the middle infielders were gone, I would to choose between taking a starter and closer or best available outfielder and my choice of starter or closer. Hart, Pence, and Young are the three best choices. Young has the most upside in speed and the most downside in batting average. Pence looks to have the most upside in batting average and should steal the least. Hart should be in the middle in both areas. I’ll take a stance that I get Furcal and say Beckett.
After 5 rounds, I have myself down for 105 homeruns, 400 runs, 360 RBI, and 80 steals. I think my batting average is above .284 for sure. I don’t have a lot of room for low average players at this point in the draft. If I could have 100 homeruns and 100 steals after 4 batters, I would think I would be building a solid base. As Beckett as my ace, I feel pretty good. But I know I need a solid base behind him.
On the 6/7 turn, I need to see who is available at closer and middle infielder. Weeks might offer the extra speed I need, but he might be a negative in batting average. Howie Kendrick might have a nice balance of power, speed, and average. He hasn’t shown the power or the speed he had in the minors so you will have to be betting on the come. If he is slotted to bat second in the Angel’s line-up, the decision is easier. My other options for a bat would be taking an outfielder. There will be some young players will upside (D. Young, M. Kemp, B. Hawpe, J. Francour, or S. Victorino), recovering from injury (J. Bay, V. Wells, and G. Sheffield), and a couple of last year’s bums (A. Jones and N. Swisher).
When I review my options at closer, I’m not overly excited. There is a chance that Francisco Cordero or Takashi Saito could make it. The best option after that would be Wagner, Street, Valverde, and Jenks. I think I would snatch up Cordero if he made it. Saito is interesting, but I really don’t want to draft Broxton in the 15th or 16th round. There is something about Wagner that bugs me. He would be the best available for sure. I wouldn’t think anyone is hot after his backup. I can tell by looking at a completed draft that I’m most likely going to take two closers over the next 5 rounds. I don’t want to chase closers in waiting all year. If I can get it right on draft day, I can commit minimal free agent dollars and only one reserve roster spot for a third closer or one closer in waiting.
When I look at the last draft I did, I can see a run at starting pitching coming. I have to ask myself if I would prefer my choice of the next ten pitchers or can I live with who ever is left over. There is a lot of talent in those ten pitchers. I can’t say for sure who the best of the group is.
I can see looking back that if I missed on Furcal, I’d prefer a Papelbon or Putz on the 4/5 turn. I can even look back further and say if I took Kinsler or Furcal on the 2/3 turn, would I be able to get Konerko or Gonzalez on the 6/7 turn? Both turns are very difficult. After reviewing my options, I’ll take Wagner and Kendrick. There is a chance an outfielder or starter makes it back to me.
When I arrive at the 8/9 turn, I know I need to take a starter and best available bat. Most likely I’m looking for an outfielder. I’ve been away from this for about a month. I can see some trends that might help me when I look back. I would be surprised to see Furcal make it to the 4/5 turn. He seems to be the wise guy play as short this year. Rickie Weeks is getting a lot of love also. If I want him, I will need to grab him on the 4/5 turn. I will now take Weeks if I miss on Furcal. I think you really need to get lucky if a player like Rich Hill or Jeff Francoeur made it here. I’m convinced Hill is going to have a step up this year and I think Francoeur will hit 30+ homers. I will be looking for these two players, but It might be tough to get either from post position one. In rounds 8-10 there will be a lot of pitchers coming off the board. There are only a couple of desirable players from other positions. Loney and Damon stand out. I read a good thing about Damon. It sounds like he is in good shape. He could be a nice grab here along with Loney if you didn’t already have a first baseman. I’m going to take Damon because I think he will have a bounce back year. I’m a Melky Cabrera fan so there is a good chance I grab him in the 18th round. I think he is a nice young player who has had a 1000 at bats before age 23. If Damon goes down, Melky will move to the top of the order increasing his value. You then would only have to find a player to fill Melkie’s shoes. I might grab Liriano if the reports are good. He is a high upside pick. I will need to follow his status closely. I might have to settle on Brett Myers. I have a feeling I will be at the mercy of my competition here. I’ll take Damon and Liriano for now.
With my 10th pick, I’m a lock to take Rafael Soriano. I think he will be a top 5 closer this year. I drafted him in 2004 and have had him numerous times since. This will be his first chance to shine. He has the closer role and should thrive in it. I could see him being one of the top 3 closer drafted in 2009. He is the best closer in the NL this year.
1) Alex Rodriguez
2) Alexis Rios
3) Derrek Lee
4) Rafael Furcal
5) Josh Beckett
6) Billy Wagner
7) Howie Kendrick
8) Johnny Damon
9) Francisco Liriano
10) Rafael Soriano
If I made a couple of adjustments in my draft order of players, I might end up looking like this:
1) Alex Rodriguez
2) Alexis Rios
3) Rafael Furcal
4) Josh Beckett
5) Rickie Weeks
6) Jeff Francoeur
7) Rich Hill
8) Houston Street
9) James Loney
10) Rafael Soriano
This team looks a little better to me. I think Beckett could be gone by my pick in the 4th round. I like Verlander and Hamels as well. I really think I’m going to take 4 pitchers in the first ten rounds this year. There seems to be more pitching talent, but I think each team will end up with three top pitchers. Are Rickie Weeks, Jeff Francoeur, and James Loney better than Derrek Lee, Howie Kendrick, and Johnny Damon? I see 75/45 compared to 70/40. I like the batting average better in the second combo of players.
[ March 22, 2008, 06:59 AM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]
I’m going to take a look at draft position number one. I’m assuming Alex Rodriguez will be the first pick. If you would like someone else, you can follow the draft slot where the player was selected. By taking A-Rod, you have an edge in homeruns, runs, and RBI. He should be a plus in batting average and help out in the steals category.
On the 2/3 turn you will have many different way to go. Are you a balance player? Do you want more power? Are there any players from scarce positions available? Are you intrigued by any starting pitcher?
I really don’t think Santana or Peavy make it to you, but if they did. You would have to ask yourself: if I take a pitcher, what kind of player will be available in the round where you most likely would draft your first starter? Would Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Beckett be better than Michael Young and Jake Peavy? The question could even harder than that because you might not be deciding between two players who play the same position. I would be surprised if Santana made it to the 2/3 turn. If he did, you have to be ready to adjust your game plan. I can’t see myself pulling the trigger on Peavy. I think he is a great pitcher, but he will always go too early for my draft style. In the back of my head, I think he is going to break down one of these years. The same could have been said about Pedro Martinez in his prime, but I had no problem going after him. I guess if you have had success drafting a player, it is easier to go back to him.
If you want to go for power on the 2/3 turn, it will be available for sure. You will have your choice of a few first basemen. Troy Tulowitzki looks like the best middle infielder with power. Unless Lance Berkman makes it to the turn, Travis Hafner, Derek Lee and Justin Morneau offer the most power as first base. It’s nice to grab the power, but I think I would pass on it to build a balanced team.
I think Alexis Rios or Nick Markakis have the best balance of age, speed, power, and average. It might be a little harder to believe that Markakis will run which might make it harder to draft him. Russell Martin is hot commodity this year. He is getting draft anywhere in the second round. If he made to the turn, I would have to consider him. My target two players would be Rios and Martin. I could see Rios getting over 25 homeruns and 25 steals. Many fantasy players don’t like to draft a catcher early, but Martin offers a chance at 20 homeruns and 10+ steals. I really think he will be gone by the turn, but I have to game plan with him as a possibility.
If a better player like Carlos Lee or even Carlos Beltran made it to your pick. It is automatic pick. If an outfielder made it, most likely Martin is gone. I think I would still take Rios with whoever slid to me. If everyone else is gone, I might lean toward Derrek Lee. I think there is a drop off at first base after Adrian Gonzalez. Lee would offer a couple of steals at first in addition to the power. I would have to take Gonzalez on the 4/5 turn because I don’t think he will make it back to me on the 6/7 turn. After that the best first baseman would be Helton, Delgado and Loney. All of these players will have less power except for Delagado. Delgado has more risk because of age. All of these players will come into play if you draft Martin.
I going to move forward with assumption I have Rodriguez, Rios, and Lee after my first three picks. I’m short on speed and have no middle infielders. I would be looking for Kinsler, Furcal, Figgins, Cano, and Mauer. Kinsler will offer a package of 20/20 with a lower batting average. Furcal could get 15/40 and hit for average. Figgins is a tough player because he only qualifies at third base. He will steal the most bases and could hit around 10 homeruns. There is always the chance he could qualify at SS or 2nd at some point in the season. He has the most value at one of those positions. Joe Mauer is a better player than Russell Martin, but he has yet to show power and he hasn’t stayed healthy. Cano would be a top second baseman who hasn’t shown any speed at this point. He would be drafted higher if he could bat in the top three of the Yankee’s lineup. My best bet would be to take Furcal and hope for a bounce back year. He is a player you will have to watch in the mock drafts. I think if you try to finesse him on the 6/7 turn, you could get burnt. Each draft will be different. I had a draft against top players and none of these players made it to the 4/5 turn. If they are all gone, Adam Dunn and Chris Young (AZ) will be there. While both players offer negative batting average, they do have interesting skills. Dunn is all power and good for 40 homeruns. Young could hit over 25 homeruns player and steals 25 plus bases. I don’t think the team is structured to take both players. It might be worth a shot to take Young if you felt as though he could hit over .260. It is a gamble for sure and you could be sacrificing your pitching staff be drafting him. My first choice would be Furcal because he plays short and has the most speed. Kinsler would be the next choice. If they both made it, I would have to jump at it. I think Furcal is a 50/50 shot at being there on the 4/5 turn. I have seen him go a lot later which would be a steal. If you don’t get a middle infielder here, the choices will start to get thin. If you believe in Weeks, I don’t think he make it back. Kendrick should be there on the 6/7 turn if you believe he is ready to step up. After that Lugo might offer the most steals, you might need to grab him in the 11th round. You can find a serviceable SS with power later on, but you will have tough time finding a base stealer with some power. I think the next 4 rounds will set up your team.
If I pass on hitting, I should be able to get a top closer and a starter of my choice on the 4/5 turn. If I wait until the 6/7 turn, I will have to choose from the leftovers. The early draft I did 16 starters were gone by the time the 6/7 turn rolled around. There were only 7 closers drafted at the point. In March, I believe the closer will go earlier in the fourth round. It will help you in two ways. I think it will push back the middle infielders where you have a shot at one on the 4/5 turn and it will push back a few starters to the 6/7 turn. I guess the biggest question will be: who do you want as your ace? I believe there should only be 4 or 5 starters gone by the 4/5 turn. If there are more taken, you know your choices will be less on the 6/7 turn. After reviewing all my options, I would want the Furcal 1st and Kinsler 2nd. I would push my pitching back to solidify my infield. If I get only one, I would then take my first choice at ace. If starters started to go early, I would take my advantage at closer. If the middle infielders were gone, I would to choose between taking a starter and closer or best available outfielder and my choice of starter or closer. Hart, Pence, and Young are the three best choices. Young has the most upside in speed and the most downside in batting average. Pence looks to have the most upside in batting average and should steal the least. Hart should be in the middle in both areas. I’ll take a stance that I get Furcal and say Beckett.
After 5 rounds, I have myself down for 105 homeruns, 400 runs, 360 RBI, and 80 steals. I think my batting average is above .284 for sure. I don’t have a lot of room for low average players at this point in the draft. If I could have 100 homeruns and 100 steals after 4 batters, I would think I would be building a solid base. As Beckett as my ace, I feel pretty good. But I know I need a solid base behind him.
On the 6/7 turn, I need to see who is available at closer and middle infielder. Weeks might offer the extra speed I need, but he might be a negative in batting average. Howie Kendrick might have a nice balance of power, speed, and average. He hasn’t shown the power or the speed he had in the minors so you will have to be betting on the come. If he is slotted to bat second in the Angel’s line-up, the decision is easier. My other options for a bat would be taking an outfielder. There will be some young players will upside (D. Young, M. Kemp, B. Hawpe, J. Francour, or S. Victorino), recovering from injury (J. Bay, V. Wells, and G. Sheffield), and a couple of last year’s bums (A. Jones and N. Swisher).
When I review my options at closer, I’m not overly excited. There is a chance that Francisco Cordero or Takashi Saito could make it. The best option after that would be Wagner, Street, Valverde, and Jenks. I think I would snatch up Cordero if he made it. Saito is interesting, but I really don’t want to draft Broxton in the 15th or 16th round. There is something about Wagner that bugs me. He would be the best available for sure. I wouldn’t think anyone is hot after his backup. I can tell by looking at a completed draft that I’m most likely going to take two closers over the next 5 rounds. I don’t want to chase closers in waiting all year. If I can get it right on draft day, I can commit minimal free agent dollars and only one reserve roster spot for a third closer or one closer in waiting.
When I look at the last draft I did, I can see a run at starting pitching coming. I have to ask myself if I would prefer my choice of the next ten pitchers or can I live with who ever is left over. There is a lot of talent in those ten pitchers. I can’t say for sure who the best of the group is.
I can see looking back that if I missed on Furcal, I’d prefer a Papelbon or Putz on the 4/5 turn. I can even look back further and say if I took Kinsler or Furcal on the 2/3 turn, would I be able to get Konerko or Gonzalez on the 6/7 turn? Both turns are very difficult. After reviewing my options, I’ll take Wagner and Kendrick. There is a chance an outfielder or starter makes it back to me.
When I arrive at the 8/9 turn, I know I need to take a starter and best available bat. Most likely I’m looking for an outfielder. I’ve been away from this for about a month. I can see some trends that might help me when I look back. I would be surprised to see Furcal make it to the 4/5 turn. He seems to be the wise guy play as short this year. Rickie Weeks is getting a lot of love also. If I want him, I will need to grab him on the 4/5 turn. I will now take Weeks if I miss on Furcal. I think you really need to get lucky if a player like Rich Hill or Jeff Francoeur made it here. I’m convinced Hill is going to have a step up this year and I think Francoeur will hit 30+ homers. I will be looking for these two players, but It might be tough to get either from post position one. In rounds 8-10 there will be a lot of pitchers coming off the board. There are only a couple of desirable players from other positions. Loney and Damon stand out. I read a good thing about Damon. It sounds like he is in good shape. He could be a nice grab here along with Loney if you didn’t already have a first baseman. I’m going to take Damon because I think he will have a bounce back year. I’m a Melky Cabrera fan so there is a good chance I grab him in the 18th round. I think he is a nice young player who has had a 1000 at bats before age 23. If Damon goes down, Melky will move to the top of the order increasing his value. You then would only have to find a player to fill Melkie’s shoes. I might grab Liriano if the reports are good. He is a high upside pick. I will need to follow his status closely. I might have to settle on Brett Myers. I have a feeling I will be at the mercy of my competition here. I’ll take Damon and Liriano for now.
With my 10th pick, I’m a lock to take Rafael Soriano. I think he will be a top 5 closer this year. I drafted him in 2004 and have had him numerous times since. This will be his first chance to shine. He has the closer role and should thrive in it. I could see him being one of the top 3 closer drafted in 2009. He is the best closer in the NL this year.
1) Alex Rodriguez
2) Alexis Rios
3) Derrek Lee
4) Rafael Furcal
5) Josh Beckett
6) Billy Wagner
7) Howie Kendrick
8) Johnny Damon
9) Francisco Liriano
10) Rafael Soriano
If I made a couple of adjustments in my draft order of players, I might end up looking like this:
1) Alex Rodriguez
2) Alexis Rios
3) Rafael Furcal
4) Josh Beckett
5) Rickie Weeks
6) Jeff Francoeur
7) Rich Hill
8) Houston Street
9) James Loney
10) Rafael Soriano
This team looks a little better to me. I think Beckett could be gone by my pick in the 4th round. I like Verlander and Hamels as well. I really think I’m going to take 4 pitchers in the first ten rounds this year. There seems to be more pitching talent, but I think each team will end up with three top pitchers. Are Rickie Weeks, Jeff Francoeur, and James Loney better than Derrek Lee, Howie Kendrick, and Johnny Damon? I see 75/45 compared to 70/40. I like the batting average better in the second combo of players.
[ March 22, 2008, 06:59 AM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]