question for the advanced??

MichiganFantasyTeam · Post by **MichiganFantasyTeam** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 1:31 am

I am new to playing fantasy on this site, I just have a few questions.

I don't understand why people pay so much Fantasy Money for free agents like Peter Moylan, Mark Lowe, Acosta, etc?

Is a couple saves worth that much of your Free-Agent money or are people trying to get lucky...hoping that people like this will be the closer for the rest of the year?

I have no room to talk, as I am in 14th place in my league. I would just like some advice for a newbie.

Also, would you guys recommend keeping minor league players (rasmus, maybin, kershaw) on your team if you were doing as bad as me?

Sould I be worried this early in the year?

Have you seen people do so poorley at the beginning and finish 1st at the end?

I know I have alot of questions, I would greatly appreciate everyones advice.

Thanks,

Kevin

Da bears · Post by **Da bears** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:01 am

Originally posted by k27orourke:

I am new to playing fantasy on this site, I just have a few questions.

I don't understand why people pay so much Fantasy Money for free agents like Peter Moylan, Mark Lowe, Acosta, etc?

Is a couple saves worth that much of your Free-Agent money or are people trying to get lucky...hoping that people like this will be the closer for the rest of the year?

I have no room to talk, as I am in 14th place in my league. I would just like some advice for a newbie.

Also, would you guys recommend keeping minor league players (rasmus, maybin, kershaw) on your team if you were doing as bad as me?

Sould I be worried this early in the year?

Have you seen people do so poorley at the beginning and finish 1st at the end?

I know I have alot of questions, I would greatly appreciate everyones advice.

Thanks,

Kevin Its a long season and there have been a ton of injuries already and quite a few slow starts by alot of the big name players. I'm in first in my main event league but know (wish the season had ended yesterday

) that so much can happen between now and the end of the year. But yeah you can still win your league, because remember its only April.

The thing with minor league players is that you never know...but if you are right like with Braun last year it could put you over the top in your league. However it is tough to roster more than one of these guys especially if you have injuries.

Saves are hard to come by, and any chance to pick up a few extra saves here and there may be well worth the money, but I just spent $150 on Moylan in one league and just got burned so what do I know about spending FA money on closers.

Anyways I hope this helped and good luck with your season.

[ April 16, 2008, 08:13 AM: Message edited by: Da bears ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:06 am

Good topic.

FAAB on closers - usually the best buys are the guys u can get for a few bucks.

"Bad" early start - If u have good players who are performing badly, wait it out. If u have bad players who are performing badly, the time to get concerned is now.

Minor leaguers - hit or miss. People like to think ALL of them will do good if given a chance. This is not true. Most will hog up a valuable roster spot and the "underperform" when called up.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:18 am

Agree with Gek that tomorrow's $250 closer is $1 today.

Why pay so much, though?

1. When new guys do great, injured guys don't always win jobs back. It is often more than just a few saves.

2. Injured guys don't always come back. I assume that 15 days on the DL for an elbow injury might just as soon be 60 or all year.

3. If you lost one or two closers in the first month already and are only earning 1 point in saves, you are desperate for any saves you can get THIS week.

4. If you subscribed to Shandler's theory that saves are not worth anything during the draft, you are now earning 1 point in saves and they're worth a whole lot more to you.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:40 am

Originally posted by k27orourke:

I am new to playing fantasy on this site, I just have a few questions.

I don't understand why people pay so much Fantasy Money for free agents like Peter Moylan, Mark Lowe, Acosta, etc?

Is a couple saves worth that much of your Free-Agent money or are people trying to get lucky...hoping that people like this will be the closer for the rest of the year?

I have no room to talk, as I am in 14th place in my league. I would just like some advice for a newbie.

Also, would you guys recommend keeping minor league players (rasmus, maybin, kershaw) on your team if you were doing as bad as me?

Sould I be worried this early in the year?

Have you seen people do so poorley at the beginning and finish 1st at the end?

I know I have alot of questions, I would greatly appreciate everyones advice.

Thanks,

Kevin On spending bigs bucks for FA "new" closers, generally no they do not bring value. You hit the nail on the head in that people will put big bids out there for people they think have a chance to hold the job for a while. With 30% or 40% of the closer roles overturning every year, there will always be ample opportunity to be tempted for the closer du jur.

I have spent big bucks on potential closers twice. The first time was when Matt Herges was a can't miss closer in SF a few years ago. Big bust. The other was recently with Acosta. I left the draft short saves and steals, so I will be chasing closers pretty much all year. I think Acosta could be the Braves closer for a while as Soriano is just not a sure thing to stay healthy. We will see.

I agree with others here that the best closer is the one you had your eye on and stashed on your bench two weeks before they got hot. It is a cheaper route, but one you can take only if your team is healthy and you have a spot or two to commit to closers-in-waiting.

I rarely spend big bucks on rookies. That means I miss out on guys like Braun, but the likes of him are few and far between. Most rookies that do well in real world baseball don't equal fantasy success. I must admit, though, that I did take the plunge once the first year of the NFBC and spent big on David Wright when he came up. So it can work, but the percentages are against you.

As to starting poorly, many have said before that this is a marathon, not a sprint. It only takes a few players getting hot and all of a sudden you can bust a move. Some of the people who have done well in this format have set their goals on a weekly basis. It doesn't so much matter to them where they are in the standings as long as they are hitting or nearly hitting their weekly goals. In the long run, teams fall by the wayside and the teams that have been managing to their goals seem to rise. The next thing they know, they are siting in money positions.

Good luck!

[ April 16, 2008, 08:41 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

MichiganFantasyTeam · Post by **MichiganFantasyTeam** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 2:42 am

Thanks alot for all the tips and advice.

Alot of it makes sense to me now.

Its really hard to dump a player that is on the DL or minors. I sure don't want it to blow up in my face. You not only have to dump them...but then you have to bid on a new player.

I have had bad luck on some free agents. I picked up guys like,

1. Shumaker--every other outfielder on the team is doing great.

2.Gerald Laird--after he did good

, now he is in a slump.

3.Alan Embree--thought he would take over for Street, Now Street is on Fire!

I have also picked up players that have done well but overpaid for them(Danks, Pelfrey). Who know what the next start will bring me...but I always stay positive, I think it helps

I also have Colby Rasmus on my bench, I have a hard time making room for him. I think about dumping him every week, esp since STL outfielders are doing so great (LUDWICK, ANKIEL, BARTON and Shumaker has been doing ok lately.

What do you guys think about Rasmus?

Could you guys also write-out some of your pick-ups and explain why you picked them up.

JKS · Post by **JKS** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:19 am

k27

I, like you, am new. So far I love the format. The guy in my league who is in 1st place dropped Moylan 2 weeks ago and got him back last week for $301 a day before he went on the DL. So far I have spent under $10 FAAB with acquisitions of Silva, Foulke, Loshe, Edmonds, and Pagan. I can’t bring myself to bid more than I think someone is worth, considering the length of the season and the little faith I have on waiver wire talent. Last week I lost out on Wellemeyer who went for $56 and Johnathan Sanchez who went for $60. Gavin Floyd went for $75. I just don’t see it. Am I correct in believing that once we spend the $1,000 we are done with our free agent acquisitions? That’s what I thought…… Anyway, here is my problem; I have the (without a doubt) the best offense in the league, decent relief, and very little starting pitching. What would you seasoned managers do in that case going forward?

Thanks in advance

JKS

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:34 am

I am sure my answers are same as some of the previous ones. But here goes

Yes you can win your league, but you have to have a solid core now. I have gone from last to first to win a title and I have gone from 2nd to last the following year, so anything can happen and free agents are a very important part of it. This year I had 34 league points a week ago and now I have over 100 in just about a week, so yes anything can happen with the right players

if all 3 minor leaguers are on your roster now, you lose a lot of flexibility. Most teams you will see with one. Rasmus probably wont get a chance as long as the Cards perform and the 4 or 5 man rotation in the OF right now, makes it hard for them. Maybin could be the closest to being called up, once he gets his 50 days or so in the minors for his arbiration issues.

You have to take chances on free agents and try to get a couple the week or 2 before they start playing a significant role to get them cheap instead of paying a premium, like people will this week on Acosta, it could be his job until the All Star break when Gonzalez is due back. Could be good for 10-15 saves.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 12:08 pm

Bobby I literally saw you at #389 last week and now I see you are #74. That is some impressive ship. Even this early, I don't know of anyone who ever made that big a jump in a week. Not sure how the weekly prize eluded you. Anyway, nice job man.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Wed Apr 16, 2008 1:21 pm

I'm playing for the first time this year as well and agree with the point made earlier to try and find guys who you can specualte on or slip thru for small change - I nabbed Fred Lewis for $1 last week and he should perform well enough over the next couple of weeks to make that worthwhile - but the chance is there that he could run with the job and never give it up - conversely in the same week in my other league Lewis went for $117 and Bowker went for $129.

Also, don't forget to look at the history list and try to spoeculate on guys who have just been dropped - they can make good waiver targets.

Bobby J · Post by **Bobby J** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:23 am

Thanks Brian, it was looking pretty sick, finished #21 last week, what a roller coast first 3 weeks, top 5 week 1, bottom 5 week 2 and now up to 69 overall, week 3. Everything came around, I think on Wednesday last week and I am enjoying the ride right now, but it is a long season, but I would rather be in the top 100, then the bottom 100 right now.

Top Dawg · Post by **Top Dawg** » Fri Apr 18, 2008 4:51 am

I like the kids you have on your bench. If you waive them to pick up a slug you will regret it. However, if your active players start to get hurt, the bench will thin out quickly.

If you are in my league, NY5, feel free to waive all 3 kids.

Pete