How was your First Half?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:24 am

Thirteen weeks in and we are at the official mid-point in the 2008 NFBC. In a injury-filled first half that taught us more about “anal fissures” than any of us ever wanted to consider, where is your team and better yet, what are your 2nd half prospects?

As for the Kings, I finish the first half way too close to the middle of the pack to be satisfied, though at least I have moved to the “good” side of the line. I won’t say that I am close enough to see a money position in my league yet, but at least I am close enough to worry about buying binoculars.

On my offense, my cornermen are doing pretty good. Generally, you want your players to average out by the end of the year about 75-80 Runs and RBI’s, 20 HR’s, a .280 BA and about 10 SB. For the three CM positions then, at the half, I should be looking to have about 110-120 Runs and RBI’s, 30 HR’s, a .280 BA and about 15 SB’s collectively. With Aramis Ramirez and Conor Jackson leading the way, I am sitting at 130 R, 134 RBI, 30 HR, .286 BA and 7 SB. I have tanked SB, so being light there does not bother me so much, but note that six of those are from Jackson, good numbers for a First Baseman and something I definitely will file away. I wonder how much better my numbers overall at CM would have been with a healthy (giggle) Hank Blalock. If (big if) he comes back and lights up the latter summer months like he did last year, I see plenty of upside here as I do not think AmRam or Jackson are going anywhere. I have filled in my CM position in Blalock’s absence with Lamb first, then Millar. Lamb is gone and Millar is average at best, so no real upside here though his power numbers in Baltimore might spike a bit with the summer heat. Also, Billy Butler has just been call back up, so if I can avoid another injury bug here, I view these three roster spots as having some serious upside. I also have Chad Tracy, which is nice insurance for Jackson, but I am not sure how long I can have that luxury with Millar and Butler already on the roster.

For the other three-man tandem, my middle infield spots have been anchored by Chase Utley. That is the good news. The bad news is he will never replicate his first 313 AB with his next 300+ AB, but I will still take it. Overall, my MI left the first 13 weeks with 127 R, 125 RBI, 33 HR, .286 BA and 10 SB. Most of the stats are Utley-driven, but Orlando Hudson is holding his own and has the upside to really produce decent numbers. At 30 years old, we are probably seeing his prime, but I can hope. Yuniesky Betancourt has been a disappointment partially hidden by Utley’s great first half. I generally like young (26) players especially when they are entering their third full season of MLB experience, but there has been no improvement in his OBP, which was marginal at best, and as a matter of fact, is right now worse than his prior two years. His BA does seem to heat up in the second half, but I am not sure he will contribute to the counting stats this year. I have no other options as I am overloaded at the CM position. I keep looking at the FA pool, but there is not much there. Overall, if I walk out of the season’s second half with duplicate numbers to the first half, I will be very satisfied. I expect, however, a little regression.

I have three catchers on my roster right now and so far, this position has been a huge drain on my team. Drafting Ramon Hernandez and Kenji Johjima was supposed to get me close to the per-player average (except steals) but both have disappointed so far. Hernandez has shown signs of life, but Johjima has been at least partially supplanted by Jeff Clement. I have Jeff Clement. My best hope is that Clement becomes a poor mans Brian McCann. If Johjima could get hot, and Clement actually hit, I could use Clement at UT. As it stands right now, my catchers have contributed 38 R, 48 RBI, 9 HR, .229 BA and 2 SB. Not what I expected. I have no where to go but up.

My draft plan was to concentrate early and often on outfielders. The players I picked for my starting five (Vlad Guerrero, Abreu, Hawpe, Dye, and DeJesus) looked real good to me in March. April to mid-May, not so much. Vladdy, Dye, and DeJesus have gotten hot of late and I am not so concerned any more. I am nearly on track with 194 R, 208 RBI, 57 HR, .287 BA and 22 SB. My problem is, since I ditched SB, I need these guys to overproduce, especially in the other counting stats. I am not sure I can get more than the (very good) norm out of Vladdy, Abreu, and Dye, so I am pinning my hopes on DeJesus and especially Hawpe. DeJesus is playing better than he has, but there is only so much I can expect out of him. It would certainly help if I get a very good if not monster second half out of Hawpe.

My utility position has been the other big anchor holding me down. Broussard failed after an exciting first week and I have not really found a decent UT player (first half numbers 23 R, 22 RBI, 5 HR, .230 BA and 0 SB) and this hurts. Between Millar, Butler, and Clement, I think my second half numbers will be much more respectable.

I spent most of late April and through May wondering what hit me with my starting pitching. I was doing OK, waiting for Kazmir to come of the DL, when BOOM! I get lite up like a gas can for the next four or five weeks. Things have settled down, but I really dug a hole in ERA and WHIP. Guys like Bonser (dropped), Myers, and Penny really hurt my team. I have been able to make some FA moves that have helped. I will start this week Kazmir, Baker, Buehrle, Grienke, Sonnanstine, and Wolf. Buehrle and Wolf have the potential to really have a bad outing, but by and large, they have been excellent in the middle of the rotation. Baker and Sonnanstine have shown some great poise and promise. Kazmir is the star and Grienke seems to be over a bad stretch he was having (needs to watch the long ball). I will fill in with Stults and Eveland depending on match-ups until (if) Penny and Myers get it worked out. Myers may go to the bullpen, but with Lidge pitching so well, this will only hurt me. I need him/wanted him to be my number two and help with the K’s. For the 1st Half, my starters have collectively given me 120 GS, 46 W (38% win percentage…was counting on a little higher), 539 K’s, 4.290 ERA and a 1.342 WHIP. I have been trending in the right direction of late, but I have a lot of ERA and WHIP ground to make up.

I have Francisco Rodriguez and he is keeping me “close” in what I need for Saves. He has, however, been pitching in good luck and I he is not totally healthy. I am trolling for Saves and the pickings are thin. Had Manny Acosta, who I do not think was handled all that well and has now blown up. I have Eddie Guardado hanging around for the Saves CJ can’t get. Like I said, I am trolling. I see downside here.

In short, my offense is more solid than it was when I started the year, because with the exception of Blalock, I am looking healthy, and should be able to field 14 full-timers, many with upside. My starting pitching is trending in the right direction, but I need another source of Saves. Watch out….that cloud of dust in your rear-view mirror just may be this middle-aged fat guy gaining on you!

[ June 30, 2008, 09:29 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 4:25 am

Wayne, are you sure you don't want another one of my corner infielders??

(about one)

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 5:41 am

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

Wayne, are you sure you don't want another one of my corner infielders??

(about one) Naaa...I've gotten all the good ones!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 8:18 am

I think your outfield and rotation look strong going forward and should be a source of strength. I'd say you were probably a little unlucky with Myers and Penny but the fact that you can have a solid rotation *and* bench them in case they perk up should bode well for your pitching going forward.

I think I am just prejudiced against Dye because he sucked here in Oakland, but watching him lately, he continues to be a dynamic player, though I always kind of figured he would fall off the past-his-prime cliff. Nice pick there.

My constructive criticism is that you are continuing to rely too heavily on your favorites. You way, way overvalued your catchers to start with and the fact that you would consider using Jeff Clement for anything other than to spell the other two shows that you value all three of them too heavily now.

Kevin Millar still plays??! Seriously, I had to look him up to find out. I had no idea. I figured he was probably getting 8 at bats a week somewhere and hitting .240. I guess that's what happen when you haven't watched a single Orioles game all season. Anyway, it turns out that he is getting 20 at bats a week somewhere and hitting .240. There is no upside there and rather than trying to figure out whether you'd rather have him at CI or utility and trying to calculate exactly how many homeruns he will hit this summer (over/under 3.2), you should be trying to decide who you will pick up off the pile when you dump him next week.

With Butler in the CI, the only way you get any kind of value from that utility spot is to find a decent free agent.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 10:06 am

Looks like a solid team to me , if you can get another closer in waiting and find that corner infielder this team will move.How many of those guys were taken from the waiver wire.Im guessing Eveland would be one , picking up value off the waiver wire is a big part of this game.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:29 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Looks like a solid team to me , if you can get another closer in waiting and find that corner infielder this team will move.How many of those guys were taken from the waiver wire.Im guessing Eveland would be one , picking up value off the waiver wire is a big part of this game. Actually, I drafted Eveland (I call it my "Tom Lord" pick) but stupidly had him on the bench for that early run. Clement, Millar, Tracy (drafted, dropped, picked up...there is that favorites thing again), Sonnanstine, Stults, and Guardado plus Choo, whom I failed to mention earlier.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:36 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

You way, way overvalued your catchers to start with and the fact that you would consider using Jeff Clement for anything other than to spell the other two shows that you value all three of them too heavily now.

Kevin Millar still plays??! Thanks for the insight. You really think I over-emphasize catchers? I used a 10th round on Jojima and a 16th round on Hernandez. One has been pretty solid, and the other was coming off teh old off-year, so I thought they were reasonable where chosen.

On Millar, until the last couple of weeks, he had been hitting pretty well. He has about 5 HR in 96 AB, which is not too bad from the waiver wire. As recently as week 10, he hit .346 with three HR's. Of course, I had planned on having Blalock back by now!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:44 pm

You really think I over-emphasize catchers? I wouldn't put it that way. You overvalued them. Something like .280 with 40 homers I think for Hernandez and Johjima. Seems like a lot to expect. I never liked Clement and he is hellbent on proving me right. And you are thinking of having the three in your active lineup. I recently drew criticism for going the three of Flores, Iannetta, and Posada--correctly, I was just low on options for a couple weeks--and that seems like a much more reasonable threesome.

Anyway, to clarify, the point is that there is no way one of them should ever play utility for you. I'd try to mix and match the best two and possibly replace one if something comes up.

Also, I think if you reread my post about playing your favorites and then reread what you just wrote about Millar you will see what I mean. He is old, he is in heavy decline, and his BA for this year vs. the last two reads like a third-grade math book on what comes next in this series of numbers.

[ July 01, 2008, 03:54 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 8:49 am

Hey Wayne

We are in similar positions in regards to whip and era. Plenty of points to be had since we are in lower half. Ergo my 1st half. Took Smoltz at 6 and Young at 7, thought that would be a decent 1-2 punch At 4 thought Hafner would have 30 plus HRS which is why I have been struggling with Hrs.Still hopeful on Young returning Hafners return might be too late and I doubt how much power he has left. The 4.27 era's can easily change in 2nd half. Plus I have the CY Young winner in Ricky Nolasco as well as Jared No-hitter and lose Weaver as my new studs.

My team was bit all year time to bite back.With the B and B brothers in Bradley and yes J Bowker and with Kearns healthy in 2nd 1/2 no stopping me now LOL

Good Luck All

Marty

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Jul 01, 2008 1:49 pm

Hey Marty!

For a couple of weeks there, you, Patrick, Rey and I were playing leap-frog but Dave, Chris, and John have really been setting the pace for our league for quite some time. I hope you are right about the stats improvement because I sure would like to get a chance to catch those guys.

By the way, the Philles, in all there infinite wisdom, have sent Myers down to AAA ball. I cannot release him, so there is another dead spot (for a while anyway) on my roster. Maybe he can ride the pine and play "Old Maid" with Blalock! With all apologies to the Eric Byrnes owners, maybe Tracy will have some value now.

Sheep · Post by **Sheep** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 7:13 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I have Francisco Rodriguez and he is keeping me “close” in what I need for Saves. He has, however, been pitching in good luck and I he is not totally healthy. I am trolling for Saves and the pickings are thin. Had Manny Acosta, who I do not think was handled all that well and has now blown up. I have Eddie Guardado hanging around for the Saves CJ can’t get. Like I said, I am trolling. I see downside here.

Opps, wrong drop this week.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Jul 03, 2008 7:19 am

Originally posted by Sheep:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I have Francisco Rodriguez and he is keeping me “close” in what I need for Saves. He has, however, been pitching in good luck and I he is not totally healthy. I am trolling for Saves and the pickings are thin. Had Manny Acosta, who I do not think was handled all that well and has now blown up. I have Eddie Guardado hanging around for the Saves CJ can’t get. Like I said, I am trolling. I see downside here.

Opps, wrong drop this week. [/QUOTE]You got that right. While I was watching the Rays/Red Sox game last night I saw the scroll and had a real Homer Simpson moment. Doubt I will get him so cheap again.