NFBC Message Boards

Todd Zola, master of Mastersball.com and an NFBC and NFFC Charter Member since 2004, will hold our first live chat tomorrow night at 7 ET. Todd is a master of breaking down numbers and finding a way to just finish out of the money, so bring your questions here!!! Nah, just kidding as he's the defending champ of the Las Vegas $1300 NL Auction League.



Let's load up this thread and give Todd some questions ahead of time so that he can come prepared. Todd, hold the answers until tomorrow night. Thanks for doing this live chat with us and thanks to anyone who stumps him with a good question.

Todd - how long do you think Brandon Lyon holds the closer's job in Detroit?



Assuming the Tigers have 35 saves, give us your breakdown of how they are distributed:

Lyon X

Rodney Y

Zumaya Z

Dolci ?

others ?

Todd,



Everyone always talks about sleepers and value picks...based on the ADP, who do you see as being he biggest REACHES this season?

Scott, what is it about Scott Kazmir that has him dropping to around 120 in recent drafts?? He was a rising star after leading the AL in strikeouts in 2007 and now he's worse than yesterday's news? Was it the start on the DL, the poor post-season or just the fact that he struggled to get through six innings with each start? And how much of that had to do with his early season injury and delayed start?



I'm off the Kazmir bandwagon, but when he's still there at 100 I'm struggling to resist. I see bargain...I STILL see bargain...but I seem to be alone. Tell me why.

Todd,



I think most NFBCers can draft a solid team in rds 1-10 of the main. While the draft cannot be won alone through the first 10 rounds, it can be lost in my opinion. It appears that what separates the best NFBCers from the pack on draft day is finding gems that return tremendous value. Taking last year as an example, players like Youkilis drafted in the 14th rd that returns 4th rd value.



Examining the previous minor and major league statistics (especially 2007) for Pedroia and Youkilis, did the breakout season that each player enjoyed in 2008 surprise you? Were there any trends in the stats that fellow nfbc'ers could've/should've picked up on??



I had my reasons for drafting Youkilis but I did not see Pedroia's breakout coming at all. My co-manager says that there was no way to look at Pedroia's previous stats and know that such a breakout was coming in 2008. Maybe if you look at the positive trends in slugging and ground ball/fly ball ratios, maybe you could argue you foresaw a breakout. Do you agree/disagree and why?



Thanks,

Rich, Nashville TN

Lifetime Standings: 104th place

Todd,



What are your thoughts on KDS right now for the main? Top 5, middle, or end?



Any players you don't like in the first or second rounds that might be overvalued? Longoria at the end of the first rd seems too early.

When I say this years Josh Hamilton? Who is the first person that pops in to your head? Every year a new face jumps in to the first round give me your best guess for who that guy is in 2010?

Todd:



What effect will this years WBC have on the players taking part, specifically the pitchers? Will they be at any more risk to either injury or burnout as the season goes forward? Will these added games play into your decisions at the table come March? Injuries aside, of course.





Thanks, KM



[ February 04, 2009, 08:21 AM: Message edited by: Sack ]

Todd, Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts with us and congratulations on the launch of your new web site. How about explaining to us what we can expect with a pay subscription.



Are you going to be a speaker at Shandler's First Pitch Forums this year? If so which cities will you be at?



You've said in the past that you don't use draft/auction software during a draft/auction, why is that?



In the auction format do you have a strategy for the players you nominate for bidding?



There seems to be more statistical data available every year to evaluate players with, it can be as complex as a person chooses to make it, what are the stats that you consider significant other that your basic 5x5?



Thanks in advance.



Terry Haney

Todd



In an auction league especially are there any team building strategies that you have tried or wanted to try that you think could be successful?



Such as

LIMA

Punting average

Overspend on pitching



Or do you agree with the usual 190/70 dollar splits???



Thanks

Tim

Todd,



I'm in Atlantic Canada, an hour east of East Coast time. In my local league there appears to be a bias against players the farther away they are from me by timezone. This bias is mild in the draft, but seems very pronounced on the waiver wire. It might be because we're sitting around watching Sox, Yankees, Jays, and when the in-game highlights cut in, they're rarely of West Coast teams, as those games start later.



Is there a general fantasy bias against players who play on the West Coast among fantasy owners on the East Coast and Midwest, or is my league just weird?

Todd,



Thanks for the insight. Anyone can draft a catcher whose last name begins with "M", but what second catcher(s) does your IBM BladeCenter QS22/LS21 Cluster, PowerXCell 8i 3.2 Ghz/Opteron DC 1.8 GHz Super Computer tell you could actually have a chance to help a Main Event team this year?

.



[ February 04, 2009, 01:36 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

Todd who will be in the Colarado outfield this year.

Seem's a little crowded ,what do you see.

Seth Smith

Brad Hawpe

Carlos Gonzalez

Ian Stewart

Dexter Fowler

Eric Young jr.

Thank's

Eddie - you left out the center fielder

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Todd who will be in the Colarado outfield this year.

Seem's a little crowded ,what do you see.

Seth Smith

Brad Hawpe

Carlos Gonzalez

Ian Stewart

Dexter Fowler

Eric Young jr.

Thank's Add Murton to the list!

Rick Wilton has agreed to join us on Thursday, Feb. 12th at 2 p.m. EST for a live chat. I'll start a separate thread for that chat next Tuesday, so get your injury questions ready. Now let's get the Baseball Mafia guys on the docket for first thing next week. Thanks all.



Tom and I are busy putting out our second baseball magazine this week, but I promise to load more Draft Results on the boards soon. Stay tuned.

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Eddie - you left out the center fielder Todd, who will the Rockies play in center, Spilborghs or Gonzalez?

Todd -

1. How would you rate your overall NFBC success?

2. Are you trying to improve on anything specific (ie prep/management/faab) from last year? If so, what?

3. After 10 years of the NFBC, who do you think will be considered the most feared fantasy baseball player?

Since I am a slow typer, well I type fast but it takes time to correct my typos, I thought I would knock off what is in the queue so those that are here at 7PM can get their answers as close to real-time as possible.



First off, thanks to Greg and Tom for inviting me to host this little chat.



Looking at the questions, I want to remind you that when it comes to playing time related issues, I have no inside sources like others, so I will base my answer on the same reports you all have access to, so please consider it speculation as opposed to having any more credence than your own opinion.



OK, we're off....

T minus 90 minutes for Lord Zola's live chat. C'mon, load a few more questions up for him and then hit him with fastballs tonight. Remember that Todd is great at breaking down number trends, so feel free to ask a few of those.



Okay, Todd, one more for you:



Since 5x5 Rotisserie doesn't take walks into the equation, do you personally believe that OBP should replace BA in our fine game? Why do you think it hasn't been brought up more often as a statistic change that makes sense? Will Roto ever change nationally from BA to OBP??



Secondly, what does OBP do for you when evaluating certain players? Same thing for OPS and even slugging percentage. Do any of those categories help you forecast future production and standout potential? If so, how?

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Todd - how long do you think Brandon Lyon holds the closer's job in Detroit?



Assuming the Tigers have 35 saves, give us your breakdown of how they are distributed:

Lyon X

Rodney Y

Zumaya Z

Dolci ?

others ? I think he holds it so long as he is healthy for a couple of reasons. First is they have shown extreme patience with Todd Jones, who is similar in profile, veteran, throws strikes, doesn't miss as many bats as the dominant closers. Second is if they thought Zumaya or Rodney could do the job, they would not have signed him.



As such, barring injury, I'd expect 25-30 from Lyon, 8-10 from Zumaya, a couple from Rodney and a couple from Dolsi. If Lyon does get hurt, Zumaya should get first shot, again, if healthy.



There was some earlier noise about Bonderman going to the pen, so far just noise.

Originally posted by mikenj46:

Todd,



Everyone always talks about sleepers and value picks...based on the ADP, who do you see as being he biggest REACHES this season? Based on the early ADPs, the two names that stick out to me are Evan Longoria and Dustin Pedroia.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Scott, what is it about Scott Kazmir that has him dropping to around 120 in recent drafts?? He was a rising star after leading the AL in strikeouts in 2007 and now he's worse than yesterday's news? Was it the start on the DL, the poor post-season or just the fact that he struggled to get through six innings with each start? And how much of that had to do with his early season injury and delayed start?



I'm off the Kazmir bandwagon, but when he's still there at 100 I'm struggling to resist. I see bargain...I STILL see bargain...but I seem to be alone. Tell me why. Scott, I mean Greg, you have outlined the reasons to be cautious with respect to Kazmir -- injury concerns and the wildness that spikes his WHIP plus limits his innings, Ks and wins.



What I think is happening is that he is a victim of the nature of the player pool this season. The "second tier" of starting pitching, call it the $11-$20 tier is VERY VERY plush. People see Kazmir in the 6th/7th rounds and also see what else is available at that time and in the 8th and 9th rounds and back off.