Crazy's top 10 overrated picks of 2009.......
Posted: Sun Feb 15, 2009 8:00 pm
#1 - Evan Longoria 1st/2nd round - He made a very big splash last year to the tune of .272-27-85 in only 122 games. I feel many are literally prorating his numbers over a full season to come up with a projection, and that's fine but if you want to do that his BA comes with it.
There is a slight negative I saw last year. His strikeout rate is pretty alarming. If he strikes out 150-160 times, I can't see a big BA increase. He needs to get that under control. Paying a 1st rounder for a player who's never played a full season is pretty ridiculous. He obviously has superstar potential in upcoming years but let's see him do it first, then you can make a more logical decision on him. The first round is for proven commodities. Let's say he hits .275-35-110 in 2009, how much better is that than Aubrey Huff's 2008? It's not.
He should be a 3rd rounder based on his lack of experience and lack of a track record. You're paying for the hype. Hunter Pence had similar hype and similar first year numbers albeit with 50 points higher in BA and disappointed greatly the following year. I'm not saying Longoria won't live up to 1st round status in 2009, I'm saying it's unlikely he does. And that alone should make you stay away from him.
2. Dustin Pedroia ADP 22nd pick Pedroia seemed to come out of nowhere last year. He showed very little power in the minors and the stolen bases was probably the most shocking stat. You've got to think his MVP season is higher than anything you can reasonably expect in 2009. His base projection is more important, maybe .300-11-60-90 runs - 10 steals. Solid numbers for a 2b but in the 2nd round he could be a big disappointment.
3. Ian Kinsler - 1st rounder - I love Kinsler, don't get me wrong. I loved him in the 3rd round last year, he had an excellent season until he got hurt. If he showed me 150+ games 2 years in a row, I'd highly recommend him in the 1st. He could be a .310-25-100-35 steal 2nd baseman with a full year. An MVP-type player. But unfortunately, he's averaged 125 games played the last two seasons. There's risk there. Why take that kind of risk in the first round? You should wait until much later before taking injury risks Let me repeat what I said earlier, I love him in a full season.
4. Alexei Ramirez - Incredibly hard to project his numbers for 2009. That should be the best reason to stay away from him. He's a good player with good potential, he broke out big time in the 2nd half with 14 homers, 48 rbi's in only 67 games. But he hit only .269 in that half. The negative is his plate discipline, or lackthereof. He had 18 walks total, 10 walks in his first 400 at-bats last year. It's tough to score runs when you almost never get on base via walks. The positive for him is he could have 600 at-bats in 2009 if he stays healthy. He will have shortstop eligibility early as well. But it's the uncertainty of what kind of player Ramirez will be that is risk alone. Why he's going as early as the 3rd round I have no idea. You're hoping for something, what I don't know, a miracle?
5. Curtis Granderson - 5th round - I don't get it. I won't comment much although I won't ever draft him. I'll never trust that BA even with his .280 career average. And he only does one thing you can really count on, and that's score runs in bunches.
6. Matt Holliday - 1st round - I've lost my voice talking about how overrated he is. He's so overrated that people actually think he's a value pick in the 2nd round. He's not. He should go in the 3rd/4th round. If you told me for a fact he would have 20 or less stolen bases, he's maybe a 5th rounder. There's a player going in the 6th round who might end up being werth more.
7. Josh Hamilton - Show me twice and I'd be happy to take him in the 1st round.
8. Rich Harden - With his injury history, if you take him as your 2nd pitcher in the 8th round it's incredibly risky, if you take him as your 1st pitcher you're an idiot.
9. Matt Wieters - 10th round is where he's being taken. Seems too early to take a chance on a rookie catcher who's team will stress defense and calling a game over hitting. Rookie catchers rarely adjust well early in their career. They do say he's "Mauer with power". :rolleyes: A future star, yes, top 5 catcher in 2009, most likely not. Clement had similar dominance last year in AAA and you saw what he did when he was brought up. And to top it off he might start the year in the minors. I promise my 10th round pick will not need more seasoning or experience.
10. Howie Kendrick - My guess is he'll be on the overrated list for another couple seasons until people finally get it. His BA and 15 stolen bases won't help if he's hitting 4 homers. He'll be at the magical age of 27 this year, maybe he breaks the 100 game barrier and finally hits more than 5 homers.
honorable mention goes to Aubrey Huff, Cliff Lee, Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion.
The reason I make this list is it gets rather frustrating to see these guys picked so early time and time again. I'm not saying none of these guys will end up producing at a high level this year, I'm saying the risk outweighs the reward.
Now, if you happen to be in one of my drafts, feel free to disregard everything you've read here. Just think of this as Crazy talk.
[ February 16, 2009, 02:02 AM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]
There is a slight negative I saw last year. His strikeout rate is pretty alarming. If he strikes out 150-160 times, I can't see a big BA increase. He needs to get that under control. Paying a 1st rounder for a player who's never played a full season is pretty ridiculous. He obviously has superstar potential in upcoming years but let's see him do it first, then you can make a more logical decision on him. The first round is for proven commodities. Let's say he hits .275-35-110 in 2009, how much better is that than Aubrey Huff's 2008? It's not.
He should be a 3rd rounder based on his lack of experience and lack of a track record. You're paying for the hype. Hunter Pence had similar hype and similar first year numbers albeit with 50 points higher in BA and disappointed greatly the following year. I'm not saying Longoria won't live up to 1st round status in 2009, I'm saying it's unlikely he does. And that alone should make you stay away from him.
2. Dustin Pedroia ADP 22nd pick Pedroia seemed to come out of nowhere last year. He showed very little power in the minors and the stolen bases was probably the most shocking stat. You've got to think his MVP season is higher than anything you can reasonably expect in 2009. His base projection is more important, maybe .300-11-60-90 runs - 10 steals. Solid numbers for a 2b but in the 2nd round he could be a big disappointment.
3. Ian Kinsler - 1st rounder - I love Kinsler, don't get me wrong. I loved him in the 3rd round last year, he had an excellent season until he got hurt. If he showed me 150+ games 2 years in a row, I'd highly recommend him in the 1st. He could be a .310-25-100-35 steal 2nd baseman with a full year. An MVP-type player. But unfortunately, he's averaged 125 games played the last two seasons. There's risk there. Why take that kind of risk in the first round? You should wait until much later before taking injury risks Let me repeat what I said earlier, I love him in a full season.
4. Alexei Ramirez - Incredibly hard to project his numbers for 2009. That should be the best reason to stay away from him. He's a good player with good potential, he broke out big time in the 2nd half with 14 homers, 48 rbi's in only 67 games. But he hit only .269 in that half. The negative is his plate discipline, or lackthereof. He had 18 walks total, 10 walks in his first 400 at-bats last year. It's tough to score runs when you almost never get on base via walks. The positive for him is he could have 600 at-bats in 2009 if he stays healthy. He will have shortstop eligibility early as well. But it's the uncertainty of what kind of player Ramirez will be that is risk alone. Why he's going as early as the 3rd round I have no idea. You're hoping for something, what I don't know, a miracle?
5. Curtis Granderson - 5th round - I don't get it. I won't comment much although I won't ever draft him. I'll never trust that BA even with his .280 career average. And he only does one thing you can really count on, and that's score runs in bunches.
6. Matt Holliday - 1st round - I've lost my voice talking about how overrated he is. He's so overrated that people actually think he's a value pick in the 2nd round. He's not. He should go in the 3rd/4th round. If you told me for a fact he would have 20 or less stolen bases, he's maybe a 5th rounder. There's a player going in the 6th round who might end up being werth more.
7. Josh Hamilton - Show me twice and I'd be happy to take him in the 1st round.
8. Rich Harden - With his injury history, if you take him as your 2nd pitcher in the 8th round it's incredibly risky, if you take him as your 1st pitcher you're an idiot.
9. Matt Wieters - 10th round is where he's being taken. Seems too early to take a chance on a rookie catcher who's team will stress defense and calling a game over hitting. Rookie catchers rarely adjust well early in their career. They do say he's "Mauer with power". :rolleyes: A future star, yes, top 5 catcher in 2009, most likely not. Clement had similar dominance last year in AAA and you saw what he did when he was brought up. And to top it off he might start the year in the minors. I promise my 10th round pick will not need more seasoning or experience.
10. Howie Kendrick - My guess is he'll be on the overrated list for another couple seasons until people finally get it. His BA and 15 stolen bases won't help if he's hitting 4 homers. He'll be at the magical age of 27 this year, maybe he breaks the 100 game barrier and finally hits more than 5 homers.
honorable mention goes to Aubrey Huff, Cliff Lee, Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion.
The reason I make this list is it gets rather frustrating to see these guys picked so early time and time again. I'm not saying none of these guys will end up producing at a high level this year, I'm saying the risk outweighs the reward.
Now, if you happen to be in one of my drafts, feel free to disregard everything you've read here. Just think of this as Crazy talk.
[ February 16, 2009, 02:02 AM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]