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Fact or fiction with six outfielders:



Ryan Braun: Braun entered last season as one of fantasy’s prime uptick players. The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year hit .324-34-97-15 in only 113 games for the Brewers and fantasy owners were drooling at his prospects over the course of a full season. The result? Only a mild increase in Hrs (37) and RBIs (106) and a major decline in batting average (.285). Braun’s numbers were still very good but they weren’t extraordinary, thanks in large part to a rib injury that sapped him of his strength in the second half of the year. Healthy again, he could reach the 40-HR level this season and he’s been a consensus Top 10 preseason pick. Despite last season’s late-season fade, look for Braun to cement his standing as one of baseball’s premier sluggers. FACT.



Vladimir Guerrero: Guerrero played hurt most of last season but still provided a strong average (.303) and solid power (27 HRs/91 RBIs in 143 games). The one thing missing again was stolen bases as he had only five following a 2-SB season in 2007. At age 33, some wonder if Guerrero’s days as a fantasy mainstay are in the past. While we no longer view him as a five-category stud, he can still hit with power and average and he scored 91 runs last year. We’ll take that in four categories and find our SBs elsewhere. He’s not in decline and could be one of this year’s top value picks in the outfield. FICTION.



Jacoby Ellsbury: Ellsburgy was a stolen base machine for the Red Sox last season. He swiped 50 bases in 61 attempts to lead the American League. He also hit .280 and scored 98 runs, giving him strong multi-category value in Mixed Leagues. His SB output declined significantly after the All-Star break (15) and that has some fantasy owners wondering if his 50 SBs last year were a mirage. Only 25 and backed by a terrific offense, we think Ellsbury is the real deal and will again provide plenty of base-stealing juice in 2009. FACT.



Corey Hart

Like Braun, Hart was another Brewer who had fantasy owners salivating heading into last season. A 20-20 player in 2007, his production was on the rise and as a key part of a strong offense, plenty of people believed Hart could be a fantasy star in 2008. He made the All-Star team after hitting .289-15-58 in the first half, but his bat went stone cold down the stretch. He hit just .239-5-33 while striking out 43 times in 255 Abs in the second half. He was lost at the plate and pitchers were able to effectively pitch away from him and force him to chase pitches outside the strike zone. He can still deliver 20-20 production, but it’s looking his 2007 season was his ceiling and he won’t progress beyond that point. FACT.



Bobby Abreu: Abreu spent most of the winter looking for work before signing with the Angels. He’s 35 but he’s reached the 20-20 level eight times in his career, including a .296-20-100-22-100 season last year for the Yankees. It’s become fashionable to project each coming season as the one when Abreu will drop off in terms of production but he continues t deliver a fine average and strong RBI production and quality speed. As a key part of another strong offense, he won’t disappoint in those areas in 2009. Rumors of his demise continue to be greatly exaggerated. FICTION.



Raul Ibanez: Ibanez is one of the more underrated outfielders in the game. He has hit at least 20 HRs in four straight seasons and he’s topped 100 RBIs in the past three. He joins the World Series champs in Philadelphia to give them another potent left-handed bat in their already strong offense. It may take him some time to adjust to a new league but at age 36, he knows the game well and has proven to be a strong hitter. Some are questioning whether Ibanez can continue to provide strong Mixed League production in a new league. We’re not. Don’t expect him to decline this season. FICTION.

Great write-up Tom, but you mention three of my biggest age-related red flags...Ibanez, Abreu, and Vladdy.



Ibanez has been in Philly long enough for people to get a feel for how they are going to value him. In the recent slow drafts, he has been a solid eighth round pick. That is putting him in company with some solid starting pitcher picks and a few other guys like Ethier and Werth. His age puts some risk that I may avoid in the first ten rounds. Doubtful he lasts past the 9th or 10th, but I might have to let him go.



Abreu is too new to his new team for the deal to show up yet in many worthwhile mocks. Where he would play seemed to cause some confusion in the slow drafts as to where to pick him as he went from 4th to 6th round. He is the least risky of the three to me as you probably weren't counting on him for HR anyway. They are talking about hitting him in the two hole with Vladdy behind him, so Runs and BA should not take a hit, but I would not expect him to be in the 20/20 club again and I do not know the numbers on how many #2 hitters hit 100 RBI's last year. Only 29 players did last year and by just looking at the names, most were hitting in the 3/4 hole.



Vladdy has lost his wheels, so he moves from the second round to a 3rd/4th rounders. It wasn't too long ago he was a rock solid early 1st rounder. His home park will always supress his power, so anything over 25 is luck and 20 would not be a stretch. With Abreu in front of him as well as Figgins (if he stays healthy), Guerrero should hit 100 RBI, and with his contact rate, .300 is a good bet, but he also hit 47% of his batted balls on the ground and with the decline is speed, you wonder when his age will catch up to him. Is the BA worth it when you see that there will only be 13 or 15 OF taken by the time he comes by?



I have these guys projected are great solid players who may need some time off from time to time and will give your team great core stats in everything but speed (though Abreu will continue to hold his own). My only real thought (I only get one per day) is that they are going a bit too early for my taste.



[ February 18, 2009, 06:53 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]