Crazy's top 10 reasons Matt Holliday won't be a top 15 outfielder
Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 6:30 am
#1 - His move away from Coors Field . Says Major League Baseball, “The ball still travels 9% farther at 5,280 feet than at sea level. It is estimated that a home run hit 400 feet in sea-level Yankee Stadium would travel about 408 feet in Atlanta and as far as 440 feet in the Mile High City."
#2 - Lack of power on the road
For his career spanning 5 seasons, Holliday has almost doubled his homerun output at home (84) compared to on the road (44). In fact, he has never, not once in 5 seasons EVER demonstrated more than 25 homer power (prorated) on the road. His road homerun output from rookie year to present is 4, 7, 12, 11, 10. Had he ever shown 15-18 homeruns on the road just once I might think it would be possible for him to hit 30 homers outside of Coors. In all fairness to Holliday, he only had 2 full seasons out of 5 (more question marks) so it would be more accurate to list what he’s done overall on the road for his career. In 339 road games he has 44 homeruns. To put this in a little perspective Ryan Howard has hit literally twice as many homeruns on the road in in 44 fewer road games. Holliday hits 20 homers per 162 games on the road for his career. Does that mean he’s a 20 homerun hitter outside of Coors? Well, yes and no. Some players just play better at home. It could be the comfort factor. The only problem is Holliday has never shown much power on the road, not once. My best guess is he’s an 18-25 homerun hitter depending on the park he calls his home. I still think if you put him in Texas or Cinci he’s a 25 homerun hitter tops. In the Coliseum, maybe 18-22 homeruns. It can’t help he’s playing half his games in the Coliseum.
#3 - Lack of rbi production on the road
Matt has never demonstrated an ability to hit many rbi’s on the road. This could be attributed to not having a strong lineup around him but then again, he did not have a problem while he was playing at Coors Field. His rbi’s on the road from 2004 to present are 21, 35, 36, 55, 29. Again, to be fair, it’s more accurate to list what he’s done overall on the road as he has missed a quite a few games in past years. In 339 games on the road he has 176 rbi’s. Now, per 162 games on the road he hit about 80 rbi’s.
#4 - His road BA says he‘s no .320 hitter
Those of you looking at his .319 career average as a barometer need to look further. His .357 BA at home has driven that career BA way up. Matt has a career BA of .280 on the road. Since 2004 to present these are his BA’s on the road - .240, .256, .280, .301, .308. Here he has demonstrated an upward trend on the road which bodes well for him next year. I’m seeing anywhere between a .290-.310 hitter this year.
#5 - Runs scored on the road
Matt is a great base runner, but his on-base percentage on the road is less than stellar at .348. I know there has to be atleast a few people who are surprised by that. It’s not bad by any means, but not as high as you would think. He has shown a pretty even home/road split in regards to overall walks. His overall on-base percentage has been driven up by his high BA at home. He has shown a 68 point difference between BA and on-base percentage regardless of hitting at home or on the road. For his career on the road, in 339 games, he has 194 runs or roughly 95 runs per 162 games. Pretty solid.
Ok, I shouldn’t have put this one on the list but since I already crunched the numbers……
#6 - Stolen Bases - Holliday surprised us all last year by stealing 28 bases in only 139 games. Is this the new Holliday? At 29 years of age I’m not so sure. I see what he did the previous 4 years overall - 3, 14, 10, 11 and it makes me think it’s more an aberration. The other thing is Billy Beane’s philosophy of stealing bases or lack thereof. I’m predicting 10-15 steals next year. He does have a high career sb% but I don’t see the team even wanting him to run much.
#7 - He now has the pressure of carrying the A’s without the skill set to do so. Can he handle not being the player most thought he was?
#8 - Lack of quality lineup around Holliday could be difficult for him to produce at a star level.
#9 - If you agree (you might not) that Holliday’s road production is a fairly accurate barometer for his overall value based on his never demonstrating big production on the road in any year then he could be a .300-18-80-95 run - 10-15 stolen base outfielder. He also strikes out on the road on average of 130 times per 162 games. It’s not exactly what you’re looking for in a #3 hitter. His situation reminds me a little of when the Giants got Aaron Rowand after a big year in Philly (I’m not comparing them as players, Holliday‘s on another level) and then demonstrated the true player he was. I think this year will be a true showing of the value of Matt Holliday. He’s one of the most overrated players this year in fantasy baseball, well baseball in general. He’s a 2nd rounder who should be going in the 5th round.
#10 - He is now hitting in one of the better pitcher’s parks in all of baseball on a regular basis. ‘Nuff said.
Some will argue that home numbers are generally better, and they are. In 2008, players in home games managed a 4% to 5% increase in BA, homeruns, runs scored and ops. Holliday’s increases are much more than that.
Which projection do you think will be more accurate?
Shandler’s projection: .315-29-108-116 runs with 17 sb’s (I don’t believe he includes park factors)
ESPN projection: .305-25-100-104 runs with 16 sb’s (Tristan Ashcroft says “that should be your lowest expectation this year)
Baseball-reference.com has a way of neutralizing a player’s statistics, removing ballpark factors and has Holliday from 2006-08 as averaging .312-29-98-101 runs with 16 steals. (I don’t believe it’s accurate by any means)
Crazy’s 2009 projection: .295-18-85-90 runs - 12 stolen bases - or 18th best outfielder in 2009
Or Denard Span with +7 homeruns and 20 rbi’s. Probably not what you’re looking for in a 2nd rounder.
Main Event ADP prediction: 21st pick or 7th outfielder taken off the board.
If my projections are close, in the low, you might have the 21st best outfielder with the 21st pick in the draft.
Good luck.
#2 - Lack of power on the road
For his career spanning 5 seasons, Holliday has almost doubled his homerun output at home (84) compared to on the road (44). In fact, he has never, not once in 5 seasons EVER demonstrated more than 25 homer power (prorated) on the road. His road homerun output from rookie year to present is 4, 7, 12, 11, 10. Had he ever shown 15-18 homeruns on the road just once I might think it would be possible for him to hit 30 homers outside of Coors. In all fairness to Holliday, he only had 2 full seasons out of 5 (more question marks) so it would be more accurate to list what he’s done overall on the road for his career. In 339 road games he has 44 homeruns. To put this in a little perspective Ryan Howard has hit literally twice as many homeruns on the road in in 44 fewer road games. Holliday hits 20 homers per 162 games on the road for his career. Does that mean he’s a 20 homerun hitter outside of Coors? Well, yes and no. Some players just play better at home. It could be the comfort factor. The only problem is Holliday has never shown much power on the road, not once. My best guess is he’s an 18-25 homerun hitter depending on the park he calls his home. I still think if you put him in Texas or Cinci he’s a 25 homerun hitter tops. In the Coliseum, maybe 18-22 homeruns. It can’t help he’s playing half his games in the Coliseum.
#3 - Lack of rbi production on the road
Matt has never demonstrated an ability to hit many rbi’s on the road. This could be attributed to not having a strong lineup around him but then again, he did not have a problem while he was playing at Coors Field. His rbi’s on the road from 2004 to present are 21, 35, 36, 55, 29. Again, to be fair, it’s more accurate to list what he’s done overall on the road as he has missed a quite a few games in past years. In 339 games on the road he has 176 rbi’s. Now, per 162 games on the road he hit about 80 rbi’s.
#4 - His road BA says he‘s no .320 hitter
Those of you looking at his .319 career average as a barometer need to look further. His .357 BA at home has driven that career BA way up. Matt has a career BA of .280 on the road. Since 2004 to present these are his BA’s on the road - .240, .256, .280, .301, .308. Here he has demonstrated an upward trend on the road which bodes well for him next year. I’m seeing anywhere between a .290-.310 hitter this year.
#5 - Runs scored on the road
Matt is a great base runner, but his on-base percentage on the road is less than stellar at .348. I know there has to be atleast a few people who are surprised by that. It’s not bad by any means, but not as high as you would think. He has shown a pretty even home/road split in regards to overall walks. His overall on-base percentage has been driven up by his high BA at home. He has shown a 68 point difference between BA and on-base percentage regardless of hitting at home or on the road. For his career on the road, in 339 games, he has 194 runs or roughly 95 runs per 162 games. Pretty solid.
Ok, I shouldn’t have put this one on the list but since I already crunched the numbers……
#6 - Stolen Bases - Holliday surprised us all last year by stealing 28 bases in only 139 games. Is this the new Holliday? At 29 years of age I’m not so sure. I see what he did the previous 4 years overall - 3, 14, 10, 11 and it makes me think it’s more an aberration. The other thing is Billy Beane’s philosophy of stealing bases or lack thereof. I’m predicting 10-15 steals next year. He does have a high career sb% but I don’t see the team even wanting him to run much.
#7 - He now has the pressure of carrying the A’s without the skill set to do so. Can he handle not being the player most thought he was?
#8 - Lack of quality lineup around Holliday could be difficult for him to produce at a star level.
#9 - If you agree (you might not) that Holliday’s road production is a fairly accurate barometer for his overall value based on his never demonstrating big production on the road in any year then he could be a .300-18-80-95 run - 10-15 stolen base outfielder. He also strikes out on the road on average of 130 times per 162 games. It’s not exactly what you’re looking for in a #3 hitter. His situation reminds me a little of when the Giants got Aaron Rowand after a big year in Philly (I’m not comparing them as players, Holliday‘s on another level) and then demonstrated the true player he was. I think this year will be a true showing of the value of Matt Holliday. He’s one of the most overrated players this year in fantasy baseball, well baseball in general. He’s a 2nd rounder who should be going in the 5th round.
#10 - He is now hitting in one of the better pitcher’s parks in all of baseball on a regular basis. ‘Nuff said.
Some will argue that home numbers are generally better, and they are. In 2008, players in home games managed a 4% to 5% increase in BA, homeruns, runs scored and ops. Holliday’s increases are much more than that.
Which projection do you think will be more accurate?
Shandler’s projection: .315-29-108-116 runs with 17 sb’s (I don’t believe he includes park factors)
ESPN projection: .305-25-100-104 runs with 16 sb’s (Tristan Ashcroft says “that should be your lowest expectation this year)
Baseball-reference.com has a way of neutralizing a player’s statistics, removing ballpark factors and has Holliday from 2006-08 as averaging .312-29-98-101 runs with 16 steals. (I don’t believe it’s accurate by any means)
Crazy’s 2009 projection: .295-18-85-90 runs - 12 stolen bases - or 18th best outfielder in 2009
Or Denard Span with +7 homeruns and 20 rbi’s. Probably not what you’re looking for in a 2nd rounder.
Main Event ADP prediction: 21st pick or 7th outfielder taken off the board.
If my projections are close, in the low, you might have the 21st best outfielder with the 21st pick in the draft.
Good luck.