Check Out Our Latest Rotoworld.com Column

[Greg Ambrosius]

Our latest NFBC column headlines the Rotoworld.com site this morning:

http://www.rotoworld.com/

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/featur ... leid=32256



Thoughts on the column?

[Greg Ambrosius]

For those who want to read it here:



The lessons learned from the past can be the best road map for the future. That's true in every day life and it's true in fantasy baseball as well.



Each year we learn something new in fantasy baseball and once we have this game figured out it throws us another curveball. This game doesn't just change year to year, it changes month to month, week to week and game to game. To win in fantasy baseball you have to stay in tune with the latest trends and beat your opponents to the punch.



Here is a quick look at the lessons we learned from 2008 and how we can avoid those same traps in 2009:



1. Finding Value In The First Round: You can't afford many mistakes on Draft Day and you certainly can't throw a wild pitch in the first round. Your first round pick must be the foundation of your franchise, so make it a good one. Last year, the first 15 picks in the first round of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship had a few misses. The list included in order: Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Jimmy Rollins, Miguel Cabrera, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Johan Santana, Grady Sizemore and Albert Pujols. Rollins, Crawford and Fielder were the biggest disappointments from the first round and injuries sidetracked A-Rod and Utley.



Who among this year's first rounders could disappoint? Right now our Top 15 shows in order: Ramirez, A-Rod, Pujols, Reyes, Wright, Sizemore, Braun, Cabrera, Rollins, Josh Hamilton, Howard, Mark Teixeira, Ian Kinsler, Evan Longoria and Holliday. While it looks like a solid list, there are no guarantees when it comes to Hamilton, Kinsler, Longoria and even Holliday, who now moves from Coors Field to Oakland's spacious McAfee Coliseum.



2. Picking A Starting Pitcher Early: Last year Johan Santana was so coveted with his move to the Mets that he went 13th overall. In the NFBC, he went as high as SIXTH in one league and no lower than 20th. He wasn't bad, but he obviously didn't deliver Top 15 numbers, instead finishing with 16 wins and 206 strikeouts. Other starting pitchers who went high and were even worse included Jake Peavy (23rd overall), Eric Bedard (41st overall) and Justin Verlander (59th overall). If recent history tells us anything, it's that taking starting pitchers early is risky indeed, especially when you consider that Tim Lincecum went 118th overall and Cliff Lee wasn't even drafted in half of all NFBC leagues last year.



This year, owners are being a little more cautious early, but SPs are still going high. Our most recent ADPs from pay leagues show the following top pitchers going in the early rounds: Santana 24th overall, Lincecum 30th, CC Sabathia 38th, Brandon Webb 50th, Cole Hamels 52nd, Jake Peavy 55th, Roy Halladay 59th and Dan Haren 61st. Will all of them return good value in 2009? History says no way. And who could return the type of value that Lincecum did last year from the 9th-10th round? Zack Greinke is going 129th overall in NFBC pay leagues and has great upside this year, while Matt Cain at 134, Brett Myers at 146 and Ricky Nolasco at 126 sure seem like good bargains.



3. Watch out for the Sophomore Slump: Last year at this time everyone wanted to own one of the top Rookie of the Year candidates from 2008: Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki or Dustin Pedroia. Braun's ADP was 9, Tulowitzki's ADP was 33 and Pedroia's was 188. Braun held his own, Pedroia turned that 13th round pick into an MVP season and Tulo was one of the biggest busts of 2008.



So what should you do in 2009 with the top sophomores? Well, history has proven that not all of them will live up to their top billing, so be careful. Longoria is currently going 15th overall, Jacoby Ellsbury is going 41st, Geovany Soto is going 57th, Joey Votto 58th and Jay Bruce 77th. That's a lot of top sophomores going in the Top 100, so be careful. Some other sophomores to target as bargains could be Joba Chamberlain (104th overall), Jair Jurrgens (224) and even Ian Stewart (279).



4. The Rookies Can Pay Off Big: The 2008 Rookie of the Year winners – Longoria and Soto – were no sure things on Draft Day 2008, but they really came through for their fantasy owners. Longoria even started the season in the minors, but came on strong, while Soto was a top catcher all year long. They were bargains in 2008 as Longoria's ADP was 174 and Soto's ADP was 164.



The top rookies to chase this year are C Matt Wieters of Baltimore and SP David Price of Tampa. Wieters is going 133rd in NFBC pay leagues even though the Orioles have stated he may start the season in the minors, while Price is going 147th overall. Better rookie bargains could be Florida OF Cameron Maybin (going 208th), Texas SS Elvis Andrus (291) and maybe even Toronto OF Travis Snider (303).



5. Beware the Injury Concerns: Last year at this time, there was a concern that Albert Pujols could miss a part of the season to have elbow surgery. His ailing elbow was so bad that there was a concern that he would be shut down after the All-Star break to have surgery and prepare for the 2009 season. As a result, his pre-season value dropped from 5th overall to 15th and he even went in the middle of the second round in some fantasy drafts. But of course none of that happened and Pujols had another MVP season.



Now turn to 2009 and we see Chase Utley in the same situation. He had off-season surgery on his hip and he could be out as long as June 1. Of course, he says he's going to be ready for Opening Day and the Phillies are saying that he should miss no more than a month. With that mixed news, Utley is going anywhere from 7th overall to 27th, with his ADP currently at 18. He could be the Pujols-bargain-of-2009 if he is healthy on Opening Day, but before seeing him this spring I'm laying low on this gamble.



B.J. Upton is another top star who is being discounted slightly in some leagues because there's a concern that he won't be ready for Opening Day after having off-season shoulder surgery. He's going 19th overall and has gone as low as 27th, but for the most part people believe he will be healthy in 2009 and approach a 30-30 season. I like him a lot this year.



These are some of the lessons we learned in 2008. There's no guarantee that any of these will repeat in 2009, but at least we have five factors we can look at and make the tough decisions when these players come up again on Draft Day. Good luck everyone.



[ February 26, 2009, 09:37 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

[Raskol]

Nice column, Greg.



Re: Johan--mlb.com is reporting this morning that he has been scratched from his Friday start due to elbow soreness.



Anytime I see the words "pitcher" and "elbow" in the same sentence in the spring, I begin dropping them down my list....

[sportsbettingman]

I'd like the column even more if you deleted the last sentence in each paragraph!



~Lance

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I'd like the column even more if you deleted the last sentence in each paragraph!



~Lance Who's this fence sitter lurking on our boards? Lance, come join us for some fun in Sin City. I know you're studying baseball and not really watching "One Flew Over the Cukoo's Nest" at night. I'm buying drinks at the Flamingo pool again.



See ya in three weeks in the sportsbook before the pool.