How Did KDS Preferences Work Out?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:03 am

I'll use this thread to post some data from NFBC main event leagues since there seems to be a lot of interest in this. I'll do a few more today and hopefully everyone will get an idea of what others were shooting for.

Okay, I just took one league randomly from the 26 main events to analyze the KDS and it was VERY interesting indeed. The average person got a KDS of 7.0, which isn't much better than the random process of 8.0. But the facts were still interesting:

** The top five teams all got their first preference. The bottom six teams all got their worst possible preference as all six teams had their last six choices as 10,11,12,13,14,15, which is exactly how they fell. In fact, not a single team in this league had 10-15 higher than the actual order of 10-15. Not a single team.

** No other team outside of the Top 5 moved positions in this league. The No. 9 team was picked ninth out of the hat and had 9 as their third preference, so they got what they wanted even though KDS didn't make that happen. Here's a look at all 15 teams and the preference they got:

No. 1: 1st KDS choice

No. 2: 1st

No. 3: 1st

No. 4: 1st

No. 5: 1st

No. 6: 6th

No. 7: 7th

No. 8: 8th

No. 9: 3rd

No. 10: 10th

No. 11: 11th

No. 12: 12th

No. 13: 13th

No. 14: 14th

NO. 15: 15th

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:04 am

Here's another one:

** Average KDS preference was 6.8. The team picked second out of the hat moved down past the middle and thus allowed other teams through No. 7 to move up one spot.

** Three teams got their No. 1 preference. Last four teams all got their worst possible preference: 12-15.

The KDS preferences they received were:

No. 1 - 1st choice

No. 2 - 2nd

No. 3 - 3rd

No. 4 - 4th

No. 5 - 5th

No. 6 - 6th

No. 7 - 7th

No. 8 - 8th

No. 9 - 1st

No. 10 - 9th

No. 11 - 1st

No. 12 - 12th

No. 13 - 13th

No. 14 - 14th

No. 15 - 15th

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:16 am

Okay, here's another interesting one:

** The average KDS preference was 6.6. That was skewed because the LAST SIX teams got their lowest possible preference. All six teams had 10-15 in order as their lowest possible preferences and sure enough, each was picked 10-15.

** Three teams got their No. 1 preference. Three other teams got their second preference and one team got their third preference.

** Nine teams got a preference in their Top 7.

Here's a look at each draft spot and the preference they got:

No. 1 - 1st preference

No. 2 - 2nd preference

No. 3 - 3rd preference

No. 4 - 2nd preference

No. 5 - 5th preference

No. 6 - 1st preference

No. 7 - 7th preference

No. 8 - 1st preference

No. 9 - 2nd preference

No. 10 - 10th preference

No. 11 - 11th preference

No. 12 - 12th preference

No. 13 - 13th preference

No. 14 - 14th preference

No. 15 - 15th preference

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:29 am

Here's another, pretty much the same as the others:

** Average KDS was 6.5, mainly because the last four owners got their worst possible preference: 12-15. All four had 12-15 as their final KDS preferences and of course were randomly picked 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th.

** Three owners got their No. 1 preference. Eight owners got a Top 5 preference.

Here's a look at the draft order and the preference they received:

No. 1 - 1st preference

No. 2 - 2nd preference

No. 3 - 3rd preference

No. 4 - 4th preference

No. 5 - 5th preference

No. 6 - 4th preference

No. 7 - 1st preference

No. 8 - 8th preference

No. 9 - 8th preference

No. 10 - 1st preference

No. 11 - 7th preference

No. 12 - 12th preference

No. 13 - 13th preference

No. 14 - 14th preference

No. 15 - 15th preference

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:48 am

If you get drawn very late you still get a pick you didn't want.....nothing changes that

Well almost nothing - I got 12, my 12th choice...but mine was served ala mode - I got Childs at 11

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:49 am

I'm just randomly grabbing these from all of the different cities and on my fifth try I've found the perfect league. Almost everyone got what they wanted here:

** The average KDS preference was 4.5 as only two owners got a preference lower than SIXTH. That was the 12th team, which is picking 12th and had KDS of 1-15 and the 13th team picked randomly who settled at No. 10.

** Three owners got their No. 1 preference. Two owners got their second preference and two more got their third preference.

Some of the last people picked out of the computer got one of their top preferences. Here's a look at all of them:

No. 1 - 1st preference

No. 2 - 2nd preference

No. 3 - 3rd preference

No. 4 - 1st preference

No. 5 - 6th preference

No. 6 - 6th preference

No. 7 - 5th preference

No. 8 - 1st preference

No. 9 - 3rd preference

No. 10 - 3rd preference

No. 11 - 6th preference

No. 12 - 12th preference

No. 13 - 10th preference

No. 14 - 6th preference

No. 15 - 4th preference

Cotton1 · Post by **Cotton1** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:11 am

greg, i know im not a big deal on these boards, but i think you should stop being so defensive. i pick 14th, would rather be higher, but thats the way it is. we all have our preferences in terms of draft spots, but not everyone can be in the top 5. i know i am stating the obvious, but some people seem to have forgotten it. my advice, for waht its worth, is forget all this stuff, focus on enjoying the weekend, you deserve it. thou dost protesteth too much. lets all move on and enjoy our long awaited weekend. everyone needs to stop whining!

Bama · Post by **Bama** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:14 am

Originally posted by moon over my hammy:

greg, i know im not a big deal on these boards, but i think you should stop being so defensive. i pick 14th, would rather be higher, but thats the way it is. we all have our preferences in terms of draft spots, but not everyone can be in the top 5. i know i am stating the obvious, but some people seem to have forgotten it. my advice, for waht its worth, is forget all this stuff, focus on enjoying the weekend, you deserve it. thou dost protesteth too much. lets all move on and enjoy our long awaited weekend. everyone needs to stop whining! Greg does this every year and i think it is great insight into peoples thinking about draft slots, so i would say keep up the good work.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 5:22 am

I agree with Bama i enjoy the data,not to mention the boards are quiet and we need stuff,anything.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 7:56 am

Originally posted by moon over my hammy:

greg, i know im not a big deal on these boards, but i think you should stop being so defensive. i pick 14th, would rather be higher, but thats the way it is. we all have our preferences in terms of draft spots, but not everyone can be in the top 5. i know i am stating the obvious, but some people seem to have forgotten it. my advice, for waht its worth, is forget all this stuff, focus on enjoying the weekend, you deserve it. thou dost protesteth too much. lets all move on and enjoy our long awaited weekend. everyone needs to stop whining! Oh, I'm not doing this to be defensive. I LOVE looking at data and we have 30 live draft leagues to look at. I think being as transparent as possible and showing folks as much about the draft spots as possible is always a good thing, whether people are happy or not. I think what we've seen so far is that more than half of the people in the league seem to have gotten a very satisfactory draft pick and 4-5 got picks they didn't exactly want. But if we had left it random, they still would have gotten the same picks.

I'm doing the analysis for fun and my own double-checking and if anyone on the boards likes this, all the better. Nobody knows what leagues I'm looking at, so the data is anonymous but still informative. Enjoy and I'll try to find a few minutes to do a few more between today and tomorrow.

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 8:03 am

I like the fact that we have KDS over the simple random selection of draft spots. Given one of the attractions to this great game is the "control" of managing a fantasy team, KDS at least gives us some feel of choice in the draft order. However, in the spirit of continuous improvement, I am a fan of FAAB bidding for the draft spots. It eliminates the random misfortune of being selected 15th in a year where the perception is being 15th is not favorable. If you end up with your last choice it is because you didn't bid enough. Can't complain about that. The downside, in my estimation, might be the technology for the bidding and the work involved to do make it happen; both signiifcant. From a gaming perspective, we have to make a choice, "which do we value more the draft spot or the FAAB dollars?" This is a strategy decision that I think would be welcomed. Again, I appreciate the fact that we have KDS, just wondering if there is even a better option.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 8:20 am

Originally posted by Asumijet:

I like the fact that we have KDS over the simple random selection of draft spots. Given one of the attractions to this great game is the "control" of managing a fantasy team, KDS at least gives us some feel of choice in the draft order. However, in the spirit of continuous improvement, I am a fan of FAAB bidding for the draft spots. It eliminates the random misfortune of being selected 15th in a year where the perception is being 15th is not favorable. If you end up with your last choice it is because you didn't bid enough. Can't complain about that. The downside, in my estimation, might be the technology for the bidding and the work involved to do make it happen; both signiifcant. From a gaming perspective, we have to make a choice, "which do we value more the draft spot or the FAAB dollars?" This is a strategy decision that I think would be welcomed. Again, I appreciate the fact that we have KDS, just wondering if there is even a better option. I'm glad this will never fly.

Since there is no data that proves any spot better than another in baseball, I don't want my draft slots limited in any fashion, ANYWHERE in the draft because some idiots think there is an advantage by blowing their faab to get what they perceive is a more ideal spot.

Random means 8.0

As long as KDS is less than 8.0, then it's better than random. The worst cases this year have been 7.0, as Greg posted and historical is around 4.5. So KDS is working. In some leagues 2-3 people (7.0-4.5) aren't as happy with KDS than last year.

>

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 8:29 am

Hey John

So really, other than people whining and whimpering what is there to gain by this? KDS is better than random, and still people will complain. If Greg gave everyone $100 off their entry fee if they had a moustache you'd still have people complaining they should have gotten $105.

Having said that, maybe letting people waste their FAAB would be a good way to let idiots hang themselves....

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 8:49 am

Originally posted by Asumijet:

However, in the spirit of continuous improvement, I am a fan of FAAB bidding for the draft spots. yes, this is the be-all end-all. with BBDS (Blind Bidding on Draft Slots), there is no one to blame but yourself (as it should be). KDS is halfway along the evolution chart toward BBDS:

Random -----> KDS -----> BBDS

[ March 16, 2009, 02:50 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko II ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 8:57 am

I'm dreaming of the day when a hybrid blind-to-live bidding (or all live) happens each Friday night for free agents!

You can't be there? Set them blindly as usual.

You can be there...live bidding, baby!!!

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:01 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I'm dreaming of the day when a hybrid blind-to-live bidding (or all live) happens each Friday night for free agents!

You can't be there? Set them blindly as usual.

You can be there...live bidding, baby!!!

You'd save about 700 faab each year Lance

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:08 am

Right after finding the perfect KDS league, I found another where it didn't work for those at the bottom of the draft. Here's another random league:

** KDS preferences was 6.9 as eight owners got a preference 8th or lower.

** Three owners still got their first preference, and three others got their second or third preference.

Here's a look at this league with the draft spots and the preference they got:

No. 1 - 1st preference

No. 2 - 2nd preference

No. 3 - 3rd preference

No. 4 - 3rd preference

No. 5 - 1st preference

No. 6 - 6th preference

No. 7 - 1st preference

No. 8 - 8th preference

No. 9 - 9th preference

No. 10 - 10th preference

No. 11 - 11th preference

No. 12 - 14th preference

No. 13 - 13th preference

No. 14 - 12th preference

No. 15 - 10th preference

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:09 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I'm dreaming of the day when a hybrid blind-to-live bidding (or all live) happens each Friday night for free agents!

You can't be there? Set them blindly as usual.

You can be there...live bidding, baby!!!

You'd save about 700 faab each year Lance [/QUOTE]Hell yes I would!

So would most, which could drive up some nice bidding wars on valued players!

Someday, maybe.

I hate all things blind...unless it involves Jessica Alba and a blindfold.

(Sorry, Tom...I meant Vanessa Rousso)

~Lance

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:38 am

Here's another main event league that didn't help those at the bottom of the draft:

** Average KDS preference was 7.1. The last five picks all got a KDS pick 11th or worse, basically where they were randomly picked.

** Three teams got their No. 1 preference. Three other teams got a Top 5 preference.

Here's the draft picks and the preference they got:

No. 1 - 1st preference

No. 2 - 1st preference

No. 3 - 3rd preference

No. 4 - 4th preference

No. 5 - 1st preference

No. 6 - 5th preference

No. 7 - 7th preference

No. 8 - 8th preference

No. 9 - 9th preference

No. 10 - 8th preference

No. 11 - 11th preference

No. 12 - 10th preference

No. 13 - 10th preference

No. 14 - 14th preference

No. 15 - 15th preference

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:50 am

Okay, this is a fun one. Three people in this league got their first preference, with one of them requesting 15 first. Ironically, that person was picked 13th randomly and thus didn't miss getting a higher pick, but at least that owner got what they wanted.

Here's a look at the data from this league:

** The average KDS was 6.0, mainly because the 15th pick got their No. 1 preference.

** Three teams got their No. 1 preference. Eight owners got a preference in their Top 3. 10-14, however, got their lowest possible KDS preference.

Here's the data:

No. 1 - 1st preference

No. 2 - 2nd preference

No. 3 - 3rd preference

No. 4 - 4th preference

No. 5 - 1st preference

No. 6 - 3rd preference

No. 7 - 4th preference

No. 8 - 8th preference

No. 9 - 3rd preference

No. 10 - 10th preference

No. 11 - 11th preference

No. 12 - 12th preference

No. 13 - 13th preference

No. 14 - 14th preference

No. 15 - 1st preference

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 10:30 am

Nothing major shaking here, but fun to look at nonetheless:

** Average KDS was 6.4.

** Two teams got their No. 1 KDS preference; 5 teams got a Top 2 preference.

Here's the data:

No. 1 - 1st preference

No. 2 - 2nd preference

No. 3 - 3rd preference

No. 4 - 1st preference

No. 5 - 2nd preference

No. 6 - 5th preference

No. 7 - 7th preference

No. 8 - 5th preference

No. 9 - 6th preference

No. 10 - 10th preference

No. 11 - 10th preference

No. 12 - 12th preference

No. 13 - 11th preference

No. 14 - 14th preference

No. 15 - 7th preference

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Mar 16, 2009 10:34 am

Greg... so far you have posted 9 leagues.

In a random draw, all picks would be 6.7%. 1/15.

I'll update this if you post more, but so far we have....

Last year, 1-3 was probably in the 50-55% range and the bottom three were probably in the 5% range instead of 14% this year.

1 28 of 135 is 20.7%

2 10

3 14 (52 of 135 is 38.5%)

4 7

5 7

6 8

7 7

8 8

9 3

10 10

11 6

12 8

13 6

14 8

15 5

[ March 16, 2009, 04:37 PM: Message edited by: JohnZ ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:26 am

Okay, I have time to look at a handful of other leagues today before I take off for Las Vegas tomorrow morning. Here's a pretty good one to start the day off with:

** Average KDS received was 5.7.

** Three teams got their No. 1 preference and three other teams got their second preference. 10 of 15 teams got a preference in their Top 6.

Here's a look at the draft spots received and their KDS preference:

No. 1 - 1st preference

No. 2 - 2nd preference

No. 3 - 1st preference

No. 4 - 1st preference

No. 5 - 2nd preference

No. 6 - 6th preference

No. 7 - 5th preference

No. 8 - 8th preference

No. 9 - 5th preference

No. 10 - 2nd preference

No. 11 - 7th preference

No. 12 - 12th preference

No. 13 - 13th preference

No. 14 - 14th preference

No. 15 - 6th preference

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:38 am

Here's one league that didn't work well according to the average KDS, even though three owners still got their top preference:

** Average KDS was 7.4.

** Three owners got their No. 1 preference, but from 5-15 everyone got their lowest possible preference except for one owner. And that owner only moved up four spots, thus the low KDS average. This was a league where almost all of the last 10 owners had 1-15 or a slight variance of that from the top few spots.

Here's the draft spots and the preference they received:

No. 1 - 1st preference

No. 2 - 2nd preference

No. 3 - 1st preference

No. 4 - 1st preference

No. 5 - 5th preference

No. 6 - 6th preference

No. 7 - 7th preference

No. 8 - 8th preference

No. 9 - 9th preference

No. 10 - 10th preference

No. 11 - 11th preference

No. 12 - 8th preference

No. 13 - 13th preference

No. 14 - 14th preference

No. 15 - 15th preference

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Mar 17, 2009 7:57 am

This next league was one of the most interesting leagues to look at so far. I don't think a single person in this league had a straight 1-15 KDS and three people had No. 7 as their first KDS preference. Here's how it worked out:

** Average KDS preference received was 5.3

** Two people got their No. 1 preference, three got No. 2 and two got No. 3. Eight owners got a Top 5 preference.

Here's the data:

No. 1 - 1st preference

No. 2 - 2nd preference

No. 3 - 3rd preference

No. 4 - 3rd preference

No. 5 - 5th preference

No. 6 - 2nd preference

No. 7 - 1st preference

No. 8 - 2nd preference

No. 9 - 7th preference

No. 10 - 5th preference

No. 11 - 7th preference

No. 12 - 9th preference

No. 13 - 13th preference

No. 14 - 7th preference

No. 15 - 13th preference