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Slow starts for these guys or injuries/old age for Guillen and Ortiz and being overrated for Phillips? I sure hope these guys get it goin cuz I have them in a lot of leagues this year.... WAKE THE **** UP, GUYS!!!

Agree big time that Brandon Phillips was going way too high.I had no interest in him unless he went in the 6th or 7th round which doesnt happen.His on base percentage last year 309 is putrid.People are paying for his 2007 season but i think he's closer to a 20 20 guy with a bad Bavg.Ortiz is another guy i stayed away from and even passed on him in the 6th round of the ultimate and never even considered him.Guillen is getting older and injuries hurt him last year.Even now the Tigers are dh his ass just so he cant get hurt in the outfield.

I think all three will be close to there numbers last year just maybe a little worse.

6th or 7th round for brandon phillips!?! cmon now even if you say his ceiling is 20/20 (which i think is not) he's worth much more than a 6 or 7 round pick with that production from the 2B position.

Still you can get so many middle men late in drafts that will be close to Phillips.Look at Hudson who was going in the 2o's or Aaron Hill same rounds.

Yeah Phillips might hit 5 more homers but why take this guy in the 2nd round when you can get alot of value much later.Even Iwamura ,Asdrubal Cabrera,Guzman,Bartlett are off to much better starts.I would rather take the stud hitter like Bay ,Youk,Rameriz,Markakis in the 2ndround and take my chances with an upside middle man in round 20.

Second base was deep this year with plenty of late round gambles .Maybe the 6th round for Phillips is to late but he is still going way too early and not wasting my 2nd round pick on a middle infielder who doesnt hit for bavg.

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Still you can get so many middle men late in drafts that will be close to Phillips.Look at Hudson who was going in the 2o's or Aaron Hill same rounds.

Yeah Phillips might hit 5 more homers but why take this guy in the 2nd round when you can get alot of value much later.Even Iwamura ,Asdrubal Cabrera,Guzman,Bartlett are off to much better starts.I would rather take the stud hitter like Bay ,Youk,Rameriz,Markakis in the 2ndround and take my chances with an upside middle man in round 20.

Second base was deep this year with plenty of late round gambles .Maybe the 6th round for Phillips is to late but he is still going way too early and not wasting my 2nd round pick on a middle infielder who doesnt hit for bavg. You warned me and advised against it...I should have listened. (Phillips in 2nd)



We'll see if he's a total bust...or just off to a bad start.



Watching him...I'm not liking his style much at all. Cocky and arrogant even while cold as ice.

As of April 21, 2008 These were Phillips numbers:



.250 9R 1HR 5RBI 1SB



dont forget he missed almost all of september with an injury. The guy will get hot and turn it on and the numbers will be there at the end. Besides the lower AVG and 4 less Runs scored he is exactly on pace from last year.



Not time to panic...yet

Hey Lance yeah i dont think he will be a bust but just not will improve on those 2007 numbers.He does bat clean up so i would expect atleast 80 runs and 80 rbi's with a 260 avg if your lucky.So it will come down too how many homers and steals.And if it is a bad year 15 homers and 10 to 15 steals.

Orlano Hudson will have better numbers by the end of the year. Crazy , i dont think so .

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Agree big time that Brandon Phillips was going way too high.I had no interest in him unless he went in the 6th or 7th round which doesnt happen.His on base percentage last year 309 is putrid.People are paying for his 2007 season but i think he's closer to a 20 20 guy with a bad Bavg.Ortiz is another guy i stayed away from and even passed on him in the 6th round of the ultimate and never even considered him.Guillen is getting older and injuries hurt him last year.Even now the Tigers are dh his ass just so he cant get hurt in the outfield.

I think all three will be close to there numbers last year just maybe a little worse. I agree with you Eddie - and while I did draft both Ortiz (once) and Phillips (once) in earlier SAT drafts - I am very happy that I resisted the urge in the Main.

I don't think you can discount enough losing Dunn in that lineup. Sure he struck out a lot and his average sucked; but his presence made the other players better. Without him, players like Phillips would not do as well. Then add the other things already said, and Phillips was one guy I avoided completely as he would almost certainly not make it to a round that he deserved.

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by eddiejag:

Still you can get so many middle men late in drafts that will be close to Phillips.Look at Hudson who was going in the 2o's or Aaron Hill same rounds.

Yeah Phillips might hit 5 more homers but why take this guy in the 2nd round when you can get alot of value much later.Even Iwamura ,Asdrubal Cabrera,Guzman,Bartlett are off to much better starts.I would rather take the stud hitter like Bay ,Youk,Rameriz,Markakis in the 2ndround and take my chances with an upside middle man in round 20.

Second base was deep this year with plenty of late round gambles .Maybe the 6th round for Phillips is to late but he is still going way too early and not wasting my 2nd round pick on a middle infielder who doesnt hit for bavg. You warned me and advised against it...I should have listened. (Phillips in 2nd)



We'll see if he's a total bust...or just off to a bad start.



Watching him...I'm not liking his style much at all. Cocky and arrogant even while cold as ice. [/QUOTE]Phillips is playing like he's Lastings Milledge's dad.



[ April 21, 2009, 04:05 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by eddiejag:

Still you can get so many middle men late in drafts that will be close to Phillips.Look at Hudson who was going in the 2o's or Aaron Hill same rounds.

Yeah Phillips might hit 5 more homers but why take this guy in the 2nd round when you can get alot of value much later.Even Iwamura ,Asdrubal Cabrera,Guzman,Bartlett are off to much better starts.I would rather take the stud hitter like Bay ,Youk,Rameriz,Markakis in the 2ndround and take my chances with an upside middle man in round 20.

Second base was deep this year with plenty of late round gambles .Maybe the 6th round for Phillips is to late but he is still going way too early and not wasting my 2nd round pick on a middle infielder who doesnt hit for bavg. You warned me and advised against it...I should have listened. (Phillips in 2nd)



We'll see if he's a total bust...or just off to a bad start.



Watching him...I'm not liking his style much at all. Cocky and arrogant even while cold as ice. [/QUOTE]Phillips is playing like he's Lastings Milledge's dad. [/QUOTE]I just cut Lastings in a KEEPER league of all leagues! I'd had enough of his act, and am wiping my feet of him.



He's tearing up the minors to a tune of .187 avg! :rolleyes:

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Still you can get so many middle men late in drafts that will be close to Phillips.Look at Hudson who was going in the 2o's or Aaron Hill same rounds.

Yeah Phillips might hit 5 more homers but why take this guy in the 2nd round when you can get alot of value much later.Even Iwamura ,Asdrubal Cabrera,Guzman,Bartlett are off to much better starts.I would rather take the stud hitter like Bay ,Youk,Rameriz,Markakis in the 2ndround and take my chances with an upside middle man in round 20.

Second base was deep this year with plenty of late round gambles .Maybe the 6th round for Phillips is to late but he is still going way too early and not wasting my 2nd round pick on a middle infielder who doesnt hit for bavg. Eddie,



I think you make some great points. A Hill was high on my list this year (and last year but that didn't work out too well!). I think you lose 20-25 steals but I thought you could gain 10 to 15 pts in batting avg. Also, you could make the same arguement for OFs that you make for 2B. Not too sure about Iwamura even with his hot start but there were definitely some late round values. The only thing is I think there are always late round values at every position. Last year, I took Youk in the 14th rd and Huff in the 23rd rd. This year, I actually drafted 2b and SS early and drafted Lowell in the 18th and Overbay in the 23rd. So it can work both ways or at least I think it can.

Eddie - I think I need a lesson in valuation theory because I'm looking at both Hudson's and Phillips numbers from the last few years, and my novice evaluation has Hudson nowhere near Phillips. You're a better fantasy player than I am, so I'm probably overlooking something.



HR's -



Hudson consistently around 10-12 HR's each year, now moving from a hitters park to a pitchers park.



Phillips is right around 25-30 (when factoring in missed time due to injury in 2008) and stays in GABP.



Runs - Hudson seems to trail Phillips by a couple dozen on avg. here



RBI - Hudson trials by about 20 or so.



SB's- Hudson posted merely single digit SB totals every season of his career except in '07 when he peaked at 10. Now at age 31, those low totals will at best stay the same, no surprise if they disappear. While Phillips(28 years old), barring injury, would appear to be a lock for 25 SB's(he's never posted less with full playing time after moving to the NL)



Avg. - Hudson MIGHT have an advantage here, but I'm not so sure. If you look at his BA away from his comfy environs in Phoenix, he's a .275-.280 hitter on the road the last 3 years(.287 the last 2).





Another concern surrounding Hudson, in my mind, was the fact that he broke a bone in his wrist last year, and the same wrist was still bothering him late in spring training.



It just seems to me that at 2B, after Phillips the talent falls off a cliff, unless you're content to go with a no speed guy like Uggla.



[ April 21, 2009, 10:49 PM: Message edited by: Liquidhippo ]

From the guy who has Rollins, Phillips and BJ Upton, it is early. Way early. One or two hot games and Phillips will be right back to the "he projects ( )" land rather than all the overrated talk.



A lot of the late teen, early twenties round MI are just that, adequate third MI for your team. Won't help you much, won't hurt you much, won't win you much.



Last year, there were about 92 players who hit 20+ HR. How many hit 20+ HR AND stole 20+ bases? Nine...all OFers except Hanley and Phillips. How many had 25 and 25, which is certainly in Phillips range? Four. Pretty elite company.



And Phillips is showing improved plate patience, which can only help his BA in the long run. He has nine walks this year already and he only had 39 all of last year which was his career high. His .261 2008 BA is the anomoly compared to his first two years of full time duty (.276 and .288).



I may end up all wet because I sure have been before, but I think Phillips was a draft time (and is now) great, low-risk gamble. It is early.



[ April 22, 2009, 06:14 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Hey Liquid Hippo , let me try to explain 2nd base this year.Phillips had his monster 2007 and then 2008 he had 9 less homers and 9 less steals with a 261 bavg and a 309 obp.Phillips also hit 222 in triple a in 2005.It's funny how Phillips is viewed different by fantasy owners.In the ultimate Phillips went 2nd round pick 11.In the main i was up in the 3rd round pick 6 and Phillips was still on the board and i never thought of him ,he went pick 9 in the 3rd round just 3 pick's from you.Jayson Bay was your pick which is solid value.

Every year you have to give up a position when drafting it's impossible to get every position.I felt this year that waiting on your middle men was the way to go this year.With the exception of Kinsler and Utley i wouldnt take a middle man.

In the main i was targeting my middle positions late in the draft.I was able to get Felipe Lopez in the 15th Asdrubal Cabrera in the 18th and Iwamura in the 25th.In the Ultimate i got Orlando Cabrera in the 18th ,Asdrubal Cabrera in the 21st round and Orlando Hudson in the 23rd round.I know its early but look at the value getting those three that late.Here is a couple others who went at good value in the ultimate ,Aaron Hill 18th,Freddy Sanchez 25th,and Bartlett 20th round.

I guess it's not just Phillips it's really waiting a little later this year for your middle infielders ,too many fantasy owners panic if they dont have there middle guys by round ten.

Also with my prediction of Hudson having a better fantasy year than Phillips i get to seethe first 2 weeks so Hudson is off to a great start.Also if Hudson stays in that2 spot he will have a career year if he stay's healthy.After two and a half weeks here they stand.

Hudson 393 avg 2 hr's 8 rbi's 14 r's 4 sb's.

Asdrubal 333 avg 1 hr 7 rbi's 11 r's 2 sb's

Phillips 1 hr 5 rbi 1 sb under 200 bavg.

I know it's early but if these guy's just fall a little short behind Phillips it really comes down to the round you get your middle infielders.

Hey Liquid Hippo , let me try to explain 2nd base this year.Phillips had his monster 2007 and then 2008 he had 9 less homers and 9 less steals with a 261 bavg and a 309 obp.Phillips also hit 222 in triple a in 2005.It's funny how Phillips is viewed different by fantasy owners.In the ultimate Phillips went 2nd round pick 11.In the main i was up in the 3rd round pick 6 and Phillips was still on the board and i never thought of him ,he went pick 9 in the 3rd round just 3 pick's from you.Jayson Bay was your pick which is solid value.

Every year you have to give up a position when drafting it's impossible to get every position.I felt this year that waiting on your middle men was the way to go this year.With the exception of Kinsler and Utley i wouldnt take a middle man.

In the main i was targeting my middle positions late in the draft.I was able to get Felipe Lopez in the 15th Asdrubal Cabrera in the 18th and Iwamura in the 25th.In the Ultimate i got Orlando Cabrera in the 18th ,Asdrubal Cabrera in the 21st round and Orlando Hudson in the 23rd round.I know its early but look at the value getting those three that late.Here is a couple others who went at good value in the ultimate ,Aaron Hill 18th,Freddy Sanchez 25th,and Bartlett 20th round.

I guess it's not just Phillips it's really waiting a little later this year for your middle infielders ,too many fantasy owners panic if they dont have there middle guys by round ten.

Also with my prediction of Hudson having a better fantasy year than Phillips i get to seethe first 2 weeks so Hudson is off to a great start.Also if Hudson stays in that2 spot he will have a career year if he stay's healthy.After two and a half weeks here they stand.

Hudson 393 avg 2 hr's 8 rbi's 14 r's 4 sb's.

Asdrubal 333 avg 1 hr 7 rbi's 11 r's 2 sb's

Phillips 1 hr 5 rbi 1 sb under 200 bavg.

I know it's early but if these guy's just fall a little short behind Phillips it really comes down to the round you get your middle infielders.

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Hey Liquid Hippo , let me try to explain 2nd base this year.Phillips had his monster 2007 and then 2008 he had 9 less homers and 9 less steals with a 261 bavg and a 309 obp.Phillips also hit 222 in triple a in 2005.It's funny how Phillips is viewed different by fantasy owners.In the ultimate Phillips went 2nd round pick 11.In the main i was up in the 3rd round pick 6 and Phillips was still on the board and i never thought of him ,he went pick 9 in the 3rd round just 3 pick's from you.Jayson Bay was your pick which is solid value.

Every year you have to give up a position when drafting it's impossible to get every position.I felt this year that waiting on your middle men was the way to go this year.With the exception of Kinsler and Utley i wouldnt take a middle man.

In the main i was targeting my middle positions late in the draft.I was able to get Felipe Lopez in the 15th Asdrubal Cabrera in the 18th and Iwamura in the 25th.In the Ultimate i got Orlando Cabrera in the 18th ,Asdrubal Cabrera in the 21st round and Orlando Hudson in the 23rd round.I know its early but look at the value getting those three that late.Here is a couple others who went at good value in the ultimate ,Aaron Hill 18th,Freddy Sanchez 25th,and Bartlett 20th round.

I guess it's not just Phillips it's really waiting a little later this year for your middle infielders ,too many fantasy owners panic if they dont have there middle guys by round ten.

Also with my prediction of Hudson having a better fantasy year than Phillips i get to seethe first 2 weeks so Hudson is off to a great start.Also if Hudson stays in that2 spot he will have a career year if he stay's healthy.After two and a half weeks here they stand.

Hudson 393 avg 2 hr's 8 rbi's 14 r's 4 sb's.

Asdrubal 333 avg 1 hr 7 rbi's 11 r's 2 sb's

Phillips 1 hr 5 rbi 1 sb under 200 bavg.

I know it's early but if these guy's just fall a little short behind Phillips it really comes down to the round you get your middle infielders. eddiejag, do you really think Hudson will have a better year than Phillips. Granted, Phillips BA could be around .260-270 range, but 2007 30/30, 2008 would have been around 25/25 with solid rbi's and runs. I can't see how you can project Orlando Hudson (31 years of age) to have a better season than Phillips. It's unexplainable. I agree with probably 90% of what you say, but this is way off.



Orlando Hudson based on season averages for career (5.42 years) vs Phillips



Hudson: .284-13-70-80 runs - 8 steals



Phillips: .260-20-79-82 runs - 23 steals.



This comparison clearly doesn't do Phillips justice as he has clearly turned the corner after starting his career with a .200 BA and 6 homers and 30 rbi's in his first 130 games.



Last year's stats were a little misleading for Phillips as he absolutely tanked in the 2nd half. His first half (.280-15-58-53 runs - 19 steals) was better than most of Orlando's full seasons in his career. Combine that with the fact Phillips did hit .288 just 2 years ago while hitting 30/30, I don't see Phillips as a bad late 2nd round choice, hindsight's a little different. Of course he's struggling right now so it's easy to downgrade him but it is early.



I'd be pretty shocked if Hudson ended up with more than 80% of his homers, runs, rbi's or steals. Although Hudson will have him in BA by a wide margin.



I do think you're right on with regards to getting MI later this year. I was eyeing Hill amongst others as well late. Hudson is a solid player who won't hurt you in anything but will only be a true positive in BA.



[ April 22, 2009, 07:38 AM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Hey Liquid Hippo , let me try to explain 2nd base this year.Phillips had his monster 2007 and then 2008 he had 9 less homers and 9 less steals with a 261 bavg and a 309 obp.Phillips also hit 222 in triple a in 2005.It's funny how Phillips is viewed different by fantasy owners.In the ultimate Phillips went 2nd round pick 11.In the main i was up in the 3rd round pick 6 and Phillips was still on the board and i never thought of him ,he went pick 9 in the 3rd round just 3 pick's from you.Jayson Bay was your pick which is solid value.

Every year you have to give up a position when drafting it's impossible to get every position.I felt this year that waiting on your middle men was the way to go this year.With the exception of Kinsler and Utley i wouldnt take a middle man.

In the main i was targeting my middle positions late in the draft.I was able to get Felipe Lopez in the 15th Asdrubal Cabrera in the 18th and Iwamura in the 25th.In the Ultimate i got Orlando Cabrera in the 18th ,Asdrubal Cabrera in the 21st round and Orlando Hudson in the 23rd round.I know its early but look at the value getting those three that late.Here is a couple others who went at good value in the ultimate ,Aaron Hill 18th,Freddy Sanchez 25th,and Bartlett 20th round.

I guess it's not just Phillips it's really waiting a little later this year for your middle infielders ,too many fantasy owners panic if they dont have there middle guys by round ten.

Also with my prediction of Hudson having a better fantasy year than Phillips i get to seethe first 2 weeks so Hudson is off to a great start.Also if Hudson stays in that2 spot he will have a career year if he stay's healthy.After two and a half weeks here they stand.

Hudson 393 avg 2 hr's 8 rbi's 14 r's 4 sb's.

Asdrubal 333 avg 1 hr 7 rbi's 11 r's 2 sb's

Phillips 1 hr 5 rbi 1 sb under 200 bavg.

I know it's early but if these guy's just fall a little short behind Phillips it really comes down to the round you get your middle infielders. I still think you can spin this anyway. I can go MI early like I did in the main (Utley rd 1, Alexei rd 3, Tulo rd 6) and find value at ANY position later in the draft.

I thought OF was deeper this year than years past. After rd 15, I liked Hermida, Lind, Kubel, Snider, and even much later Rivera, Gerut, Church, Murphy, C Duncan and even C Ross if you could take the poor avg- just off the top of my head.

You take Bay in rd 3, how much better will he be than Lind? Bay will go 30-100 but Lind I think goes 22-25hr, 90rbi. Less steals but Lind could finish with the better avg.

Just not sold that MI was the place to grab players late. But still good players you list for late value with Hill, Lopez, Sanchez, and Bartlett. Not Iwamura! (it's early).



[ April 22, 2009, 08:06 AM: Message edited by: rkulaski ]

Taking middle infielders this year is just my opinion agreat idea if you can hit a few of those players,Hill,Cabrera,Bonafacio,Hudson,Sanchez .I would rather take Kemp or Markakis in the 2nd round then AlexiRameriz or Phillips in the same rounds.

I also think Hudson this year will be closer to Phillips then you think.Not only will he hit for a much higher bavg Hudson will score more run's this year.Hudson batting 2nd in the best hitting lineup in the national league is huge.If Torre leaves him in the 2 hole then yes im expecting a career year from the O Dog.Yes Phillips will hit more homers and rbi's but the O Dog will win bavg and run's.That leaves stolen bases and Hudson is already ahead 4 to 1.I think batting 2nd with a manager that will let him run i see no reason that Hudson can steal 15 bases.IM just saying when you look at the numbers at the end of the YEAR it's possible that fantasy wise they might be closer then you think.Dont forget im making this prediction after seeing the first couple week's.Actually Asdrubal Cabrera is my sleeper pick of the year as i was able to get him in 6 of my 9 leagues.I love the two positions he play's and his last full year in the minors he stole 23 bases.I also think he has a really nice swing and getting those major league at bats last year got his feet wet.He also hit 306 in the 2nd half with 8 homers.

I just love the Brandon Phillips bashing!



It's reverse karma!



You just KNOW he'll go on a tear now!



Happens all the time!

Brandon Phillips update . Yes he steal's his 2nd base and collected 2 hit's.BUT i noticed he batted 6th in the lineup last night againest a lefty ,Ted Lilly.What's up with that. Stay tuned.

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Brandon Phillips update . Yes he steal's his 2nd base and collected 2 hit's.BUT i noticed he batted 6th in the lineup last night againest a lefty ,Ted Lilly.What's up with that. Stay tuned. Ouch! You are bringing me down, Eddie!

I'm fine with phillips hitting 6th until he finds his groove. Hell 2 hits and 1 SB in the 6 hole is just fine for me. Once he gets on a tear he will move back to cleanup as Edwin cannot hit cleanup all year long.

Originally posted by Dirt Dogs:

I'm fine with phillips hitting 6th until he finds his groove. Hell 2 hits and 1 SB in the 6 hole is just fine for me. Once he gets on a tear he will move back to cleanup as Edwin cannot hit cleanup all year long. Ummm...I have Encarnacion as well...I am screwed!

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Brandon Phillips update . Yes he steal's his 2nd base and collected 2 hit's.BUT i noticed he batted 6th in the lineup last night againest a lefty ,Ted Lilly.What's up with that. Stay tuned. Because he was 0 for his last 21 before last night. In the Suntimes I read that he was moving down to take a little bit of pressure off him and the slump. It was a good call.



I was at the game last night. He fouled off ALOT of pitches and had some good AB's. I told my wife about 30 seconds before his first hit - this guy is due for a hit, he is so close to solid contact. Then, as you would say Eddie, BAM!