Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 12:45 am
The Marlins said that they're demoting Ricky Nolasco.
I didn't even need to watch the game to find out that info.
I didn't even need to watch the game to find out that info.
NFBC Message Boards
https://nfbcforums.sportshubtech.com/
Nolasco
https://nfbcforums.sportshubtech.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=4124
Page 1 of 1
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 12:50 am
What are his peripherals?
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 1:27 am
Cant believe how bad he's been and was trying to get him in every league.In 7 main events i got him in two leagues and one league being the ultimate.
Im 14th in era and whip so i wont miss him,also have Gavin Floyd and sat him this week and of course he throw's a gem. IM SICK.....
Im 14th in era and whip so i wont miss him,also have Gavin Floyd and sat him this week and of course he throw's a gem. IM SICK.....
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 1:42 am
Originally posted by G-X:
What are his peripherals? G-X:
peripherals can change quickly if there is an injury. Nolasco looked to be a victim of some bad luck earlier this year. HOWEVER, his last two starts are:
K/9: 7.9
BB/9: 4.8
HR/9: 4.8
Small sample size of innings, but does include 2 starts.
This spring I heard (through research, not watching any bloody game
) Nolasco got pulled from a game or game situation when a trainer rushed out and looked at his elbow.
I filed that away and managed to stay clear of Nolasco on all my teams this year. Remember, Nolasco doesn't have a good history with injuries.
[ May 23, 2009, 07:43 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko II ]
What are his peripherals? G-X:
peripherals can change quickly if there is an injury. Nolasco looked to be a victim of some bad luck earlier this year. HOWEVER, his last two starts are:
K/9: 7.9
BB/9: 4.8
HR/9: 4.8
Small sample size of innings, but does include 2 starts.
This spring I heard (through research, not watching any bloody game
) Nolasco got pulled from a game or game situation when a trainer rushed out and looked at his elbow. I filed that away and managed to stay clear of Nolasco on all my teams this year. Remember, Nolasco doesn't have a good history with injuries.
[ May 23, 2009, 07:43 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko II ]
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 4:24 am
at the shandler symposium he did state "stay away" from nolasco...the injury specialist said "he has horrible mechanics" and "he is an injury waiting to happen".....tttaaaddddaaaaaa!!!!
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 5:00 am
Originally posted by eddiejag:
Cant believe how bad he's been and was trying to get him in every league.In 7 main events i got him in two leagues and one league being the ultimate.
Im 14th in era and whip so i wont miss him,also have Gavin Floyd and sat him this week and of course he throw's a gem. IM SICK..... I was hot on his trail as well. I got him in my 10x10 league (his peripherals are even more important in this structure) and posted on the message board during the draft that "I waited 6 months to draft him"...hallelujah.
Some have said before the season that an injury occurring was a possibility. I still thought he had a chance to be one of the best pitchers in the National League this year if he stayed healthy. Boy was I wrong.
edited: Just read RT's post. That's where I read the possibility for injury, in the "bible".
[ May 23, 2009, 11:03 AM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]
Cant believe how bad he's been and was trying to get him in every league.In 7 main events i got him in two leagues and one league being the ultimate.
Im 14th in era and whip so i wont miss him,also have Gavin Floyd and sat him this week and of course he throw's a gem. IM SICK..... I was hot on his trail as well. I got him in my 10x10 league (his peripherals are even more important in this structure) and posted on the message board during the draft that "I waited 6 months to draft him"...hallelujah.
Some have said before the season that an injury occurring was a possibility. I still thought he had a chance to be one of the best pitchers in the National League this year if he stayed healthy. Boy was I wrong.
edited: Just read RT's post. That's where I read the possibility for injury, in the "bible".
[ May 23, 2009, 11:03 AM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 5:34 am
I guess there could've been someone in the main who went Kazmir-Nolasco-Harden as their top 3 starters.
I have to admit also that I thought Nolasco was going to have a solid season and definitely would've drafted him as my #2 starting pitcher this year. It just seemed like every draft I was in, someone drafted him earlier than I was willing to. In our main, I think he went 8th rd.
I have to admit also that I thought Nolasco was going to have a solid season and definitely would've drafted him as my #2 starting pitcher this year. It just seemed like every draft I was in, someone drafted him earlier than I was willing to. In our main, I think he went 8th rd.
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 5:39 am
Unless you accept a direct correlation between results and health, there's no evidence that Nolasco is hurt. And while some clubs aren't exactly at the cutting edge (no pun intended) of preserving player health -- and yes, the Marlins do in fact have a poor track record of keeping their pitchers healthy -- I find it hard to believe that the club would keep running him out there if they knew he was hurt. And why would they send him to the minors instead of putting him on the DL, if there was even a suspicion he was hurt? His velocity has been consistent all season long, and conistent with last year, and his K/9 rate shows that he still has "stuff". But having watched him pitch this year, it's clear that he hasn't had command... he's had plenty of guys behind in the count and failed to put them away because, with two strikes, he'd throw some fat hittable pitch.
Yes, I did draft Nolasco in a few leagues, so I do admit some bias here. But I think the connection being made between his performance and his health is a knee-jerk response being made without any evidence.
Yes, I did draft Nolasco in a few leagues, so I do admit some bias here. But I think the connection being made between his performance and his health is a knee-jerk response being made without any evidence.
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 5:49 am
ok...he just sucks this year!!!
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 5:54 am
Originally posted by Schwartzstops:
Unless you accept a direct correlation between results and health, there's no evidence that Nolasco is hurt. And while some clubs aren't exactly at the cutting edge (no pun intended) of preserving player health -- and yes, the Marlins do in fact have a poor track record of keeping their pitchers healthy -- I find it hard to believe that the club would keep running him out there if they knew he was hurt. And why would they send him to the minors instead of putting him on the DL, if there was even a suspicion he was hurt? His velocity has been consistent all season long, and conistent with last year, and his K/9 rate shows that he still has "stuff". But having watched him pitch this year, it's clear that he hasn't had command... he's had plenty of guys behind in the count and failed to put them away because, with two strikes, he'd throw some fat hittable pitch.
Yes, I did draft Nolasco in a few leagues, so I do admit some bias here. But I think the connection being made between his performance and his health is a knee-jerk response being made without any evidence. I didn't mean to insinuate he's hurt. Like RT said, he just plain sucks. He still has time to turn it around. He should stay down in the minors for atleast a month though.
Unless you accept a direct correlation between results and health, there's no evidence that Nolasco is hurt. And while some clubs aren't exactly at the cutting edge (no pun intended) of preserving player health -- and yes, the Marlins do in fact have a poor track record of keeping their pitchers healthy -- I find it hard to believe that the club would keep running him out there if they knew he was hurt. And why would they send him to the minors instead of putting him on the DL, if there was even a suspicion he was hurt? His velocity has been consistent all season long, and conistent with last year, and his K/9 rate shows that he still has "stuff". But having watched him pitch this year, it's clear that he hasn't had command... he's had plenty of guys behind in the count and failed to put them away because, with two strikes, he'd throw some fat hittable pitch.
Yes, I did draft Nolasco in a few leagues, so I do admit some bias here. But I think the connection being made between his performance and his health is a knee-jerk response being made without any evidence. I didn't mean to insinuate he's hurt. Like RT said, he just plain sucks. He still has time to turn it around. He should stay down in the minors for atleast a month though.
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 5:57 am
His peripherals weren't that bad in his last showing, 2/1 K/BB ratio with 9K/9. It definitely shows he's due for a rebound. 
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 6:12 am
Originally posted by Captain Hook:
....and his list for 2009
Lester
Hamels
Billingsley
Danks
Pelfrey
Lincecum
Jurrjens Time to break out the old Verducci superstars! Everyone on the list has had injury or ERA problems except Jurrjens. What the list doesn't tell you is that Nolasco should have been at the very top. He didn't qualify on the technicality that he was one year too old, but he jumped from 55 innings to 212. Ouch!
[ May 23, 2009, 03:00 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
....and his list for 2009
Lester
Hamels
Billingsley
Danks
Pelfrey
Lincecum
Jurrjens Time to break out the old Verducci superstars! Everyone on the list has had injury or ERA problems except Jurrjens. What the list doesn't tell you is that Nolasco should have been at the very top. He didn't qualify on the technicality that he was one year too old, but he jumped from 55 innings to 212. Ouch!
[ May 23, 2009, 03:00 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 9:38 am
If you watch Nolasco he recoils on every pitch.I had him in no leagues.He may do well.But,he scares me injury wise.
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 10:35 am
Originally posted by Captain Hook:
....and his list for 2009
Lester
Hamels
Billingsley
Danks
Pelfrey
Lincecum
Jurrjens
Time to break out the old Verducci superstars! Everyone on the list has had injury or ERA problems except Jurrjens.
Well, not exactly:
* Lester - 5.91 ERA and 10 HR allowed in 53.1 IP despite 58/18 K/BB
* Hamels - 4.95 ERA and 8 HR allowed in 36.1 IP despite 38/9 K/BB
* Billingsley - 2.51 ERA in 9 starts (61.0 IP)
* Danks - 4.60 ERA in 43.0 IP despite 41/14 K/BB
* Pelfrey - 4.61 ERA in 41 IP and lousy peripherals
* Lincecum - 3.45 ERA in 9 starts, 76/17 K/BB
* Jurrjens - 1.96 ERA in 9 starts (despite weak 32/20 K/BB)
So it's more accurate to say that of those seven guys, three have been excellent, three have been poor despite strong peripherals, and one has been awful.
In any case, none of any of this is to say that Nolasco hasn't sucked this year... he has. But to say that's because he's injured, in the absence of any real evidence, is a very specious argument.
(This reminds me a lot of the Blanton thread!)
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 11:25 am
Originally posted by Schwartzstops:
quote:
Originally posted by Captain Hook:
....and his list for 2009
Lester
Hamels
Billingsley
Danks
Pelfrey
Lincecum
Jurrjens
Time to break out the old Verducci superstars! Everyone on the list has had injury or ERA problems except Jurrjens.
Well, not exactly:
* Lester - 5.91 ERA and 10 HR allowed in 53.1 IP despite 58/18 K/BB
* Hamels - 4.95 ERA and 8 HR allowed in 36.1 IP despite 38/9 K/BB
* Billingsley - 2.51 ERA in 9 starts (61.0 IP)
* Danks - 4.60 ERA in 43.0 IP despite 41/14 K/BB
* Pelfrey - 4.61 ERA in 41 IP and lousy peripherals
* Lincecum - 3.45 ERA in 9 starts, 76/17 K/BB
* Jurrjens - 1.96 ERA in 9 starts (despite weak 32/20 K/BB)
So it's more accurate to say that of those seven guys, three have been excellent, three have been poor despite strong peripherals, and one has been awful.
In any case, none of any of this is to say that Nolasco hasn't sucked this year... he has. But to say that's because he's injured, in the absence of any real evidence, is a very specious argument.
(This reminds me a lot of the Blanton thread!) [/QUOTE]No, not exactly? Yes, exactly. The idea is that these pitchers tend to suffer an injury or a significant increase in ERA.
Lester: ERA
Hamels: Injury, ERA
Billingsley: Injury
Danks: ERA
Pelfrey: ERA
Lincecum: ERA
Can't be much clearer than that.
quote:
Originally posted by Captain Hook:
....and his list for 2009
Lester
Hamels
Billingsley
Danks
Pelfrey
Lincecum
Jurrjens
Time to break out the old Verducci superstars! Everyone on the list has had injury or ERA problems except Jurrjens.
Well, not exactly:
* Lester - 5.91 ERA and 10 HR allowed in 53.1 IP despite 58/18 K/BB
* Hamels - 4.95 ERA and 8 HR allowed in 36.1 IP despite 38/9 K/BB
* Billingsley - 2.51 ERA in 9 starts (61.0 IP)
* Danks - 4.60 ERA in 43.0 IP despite 41/14 K/BB
* Pelfrey - 4.61 ERA in 41 IP and lousy peripherals
* Lincecum - 3.45 ERA in 9 starts, 76/17 K/BB
* Jurrjens - 1.96 ERA in 9 starts (despite weak 32/20 K/BB)
So it's more accurate to say that of those seven guys, three have been excellent, three have been poor despite strong peripherals, and one has been awful.
In any case, none of any of this is to say that Nolasco hasn't sucked this year... he has. But to say that's because he's injured, in the absence of any real evidence, is a very specious argument.
(This reminds me a lot of the Blanton thread!) [/QUOTE]No, not exactly? Yes, exactly. The idea is that these pitchers tend to suffer an injury or a significant increase in ERA.
Lester: ERA
Hamels: Injury, ERA
Billingsley: Injury
Danks: ERA
Pelfrey: ERA
Lincecum: ERA
Can't be much clearer than that.
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 11:46 am
Which injury did Billingsley suffer? The broken leg slipping on ice?
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 1:47 pm
It's sad -- targetted him in a lot of leagues, and got him in a lot. If you look at his line last year from about mid-July on, he threw NOTHING but quality starts. Not one blemish. You all know the details -- the k/bb ratio etc. I thought he couldn't miss.
The only consolation is that in my keeper league, he got sent down so I got to pull a quality player out of the pool.
Ricky -- where'd you go?
Will be interesting to see how many teams bail on him across the events Sunday. He's gone on my team.
The only consolation is that in my keeper league, he got sent down so I got to pull a quality player out of the pool.
Ricky -- where'd you go?
Will be interesting to see how many teams bail on him across the events Sunday. He's gone on my team.
Nolasco
Posted: Sat May 23, 2009 7:11 pm
Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:
Which injury did Billingsley suffer? The broken leg slipping on ice? He's a data point. In a formal study, you'd have guys in the control group with freak injuries also.
Which injury did Billingsley suffer? The broken leg slipping on ice? He's a data point. In a formal study, you'd have guys in the control group with freak injuries also.
Nolasco
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2009 2:33 pm
With the season over and nothing to do until Tuesday evening, I thought it would be fun to re-visit this thread and see how these guys turned out; here are the combined season-vs-season results for the eight pitchers discussed in this thread:
YEAR W L ERA G IP IP/GS WHIP K/BB K/9
2009 102 79 3.78 257 1603.3 6.24 1.26 2.77 8.06
2008 117 69 3.28 265 1660.7 6.27 1.24 2.75 7.68
(Apologies if the table doesn't line up perfectly)
The cumulative half-run increase in ERA is real and meaningful; six of the eight guys saw their ERA's go up from 2008 to 2009, and that resulted in an average decrease of two wins apiece.
However, the other rate stats were virtually indistinguishable, including games, innings pitched and innings per start, and in fact K/9 increased by about five percent. Most importantly perhaps, as relates to the Verducci theory, the group made an average of only one fewer start in 2009 than they did in 2008, throwing about 7.1 fewer IP each.
Eight pitchers don't prove anything, but if the slight decrease in IP and the ERA increase support the Verducci theory, the other data support that these guys were still extremely reliable and effective on the whole. (More advanced stats might even point to the ERA being flukishly high based on the peripherals, particularly in Nolasco's case.)
I'm not sure who the Verducci guys will be in 2010, but the performance of this group won't be enough to scare me away from anyone else.
Enjoy the game on Tuesday!
[ October 04, 2009, 08:34 PM: Message edited by: Schwartzstops ]
YEAR W L ERA G IP IP/GS WHIP K/BB K/9
2009 102 79 3.78 257 1603.3 6.24 1.26 2.77 8.06
2008 117 69 3.28 265 1660.7 6.27 1.24 2.75 7.68
(Apologies if the table doesn't line up perfectly)
The cumulative half-run increase in ERA is real and meaningful; six of the eight guys saw their ERA's go up from 2008 to 2009, and that resulted in an average decrease of two wins apiece.
However, the other rate stats were virtually indistinguishable, including games, innings pitched and innings per start, and in fact K/9 increased by about five percent. Most importantly perhaps, as relates to the Verducci theory, the group made an average of only one fewer start in 2009 than they did in 2008, throwing about 7.1 fewer IP each.
Eight pitchers don't prove anything, but if the slight decrease in IP and the ERA increase support the Verducci theory, the other data support that these guys were still extremely reliable and effective on the whole. (More advanced stats might even point to the ERA being flukishly high based on the peripherals, particularly in Nolasco's case.)
I'm not sure who the Verducci guys will be in 2010, but the performance of this group won't be enough to scare me away from anyone else.
Enjoy the game on Tuesday!
[ October 04, 2009, 08:34 PM: Message edited by: Schwartzstops ]