NFBC Message Boards

Has anyone else noticed (or perhaps percieved) the return of the stolen base? Since inception of my long and dusty trek to conquer the lofty throne of the NFBC, I have been tracking the raw stats it would take to get 100% and 80% of available points in the Main Event. From each year from 2004 to 2007, the number of stolen bases required at each level (208/139 in 2004 to 231/172 in 2007) has risen. 2008 retrenched a bit, but not much (224/161). This year, we seem to be back on the increased stolen base track.



In 2008, there were about 85 players with 10+ SB in the majors. This year, 10 weeks in, there are already nearly 40. Correspondingly, there were just over 90 MLB players with 20+ HR last year. So far this year there are "only" five (you lucky owners of Gonzalez, Ibanez, Pujols, Pena, and Big Tex). I am not saying power is down, rather speed definitely seems to be up.



The reason I note this is one of the whopping two categories I am tracking well against is SB. Where I should be overall for SB in the high 70's or low 80's, I am sitting like at 120.



Anyone else feel the same way?

Carl Crawford agrees- how much can one player influence your data?

Not too much I do not think. There were three "outliers" last year (i.e. 50+ SB types), so I would expect a few to clearly lead the pack this year. But nearly 40 guys with at least 10+ SB already in 10 weeks makes me think there are trends for a whole lot more green lights.



BTW, I found one old file of mine where I had MLB stats through 6/3/08 last year. Not quite apples to apples as we are twelve days past that, but there were only 28 guys with 10+SB at (nearly) this time last year.



The trend could taper off as the season gets longer and hotter, but it just seems to me that SB are up this year.

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Not too much I do not think. There were three "outliers" last year (i.e. 50+ SB types), so I would expect a few to clearly lead the pack this year. But nearly 40 guys with at least 10+ SB already in 10 weeks makes me think there are trends for a whole lot more green lights.



BTW, I found one old file of mine where I had MLB stats through 6/3/08 last year. Not quite apples to apples as we are twelve days past that, but there were only 28 guys with 10+SB at (nearly) this time last year.



The trend could taper off as the season gets longer and hotter, but it just seems to me that SB are up this year. Maybe?



A) SB = $$

B) lack of quality backstops

c) tipping

d) some own themselves on their fantasy teams

Originally posted by Dub:



A) SB = $$

B) lack of quality backstops

c) tipping

d) some own themselves on their fantasy teams E/e) Tampa Bay Rays are running rampant (on a pace not seen in almost 20 years)



F/f) Chris R. Young is healthy this year