Which of the following numbers does not belong?

TOXIC ASSETS · Post by **TOXIC ASSETS** » Sat Jun 20, 2009 6:57 am

.315

.315

.309

.298

.299

.284

.301

.263

.271

.306

.191

These are Brian Giles' batting averages every year, in order, since 1999. I don't understand how a guy can lose it so quickly. I've had him on my bench for a month now, but I'm only an injury or two away from having to play him. I know the guy is old, but he was old last year and hit .306. I don't get it.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jun 20, 2009 9:52 am

1. On the plus side: Sand Diego's team batting average is .234 and their team BABIP is .269. Beyond the park, that is just unlucky, so they've probably played in some unusually harsh conditions. Gile's BABIP is .214. All of that is going to come up.

2. Now for the negatives: PETCO depresses BA by about 26 points. Those Pittsburgh numbers wouldn't look so good if they were in SD. And if you would expect him to hit .300 in a neutral park *this* year, you bump that down to .275 here.

3. Giles BABIP last year was .321. Very lucky. Very high. Especially in PETCO. Honestly? Which of those numbers doesn't belong? It's as like to be last year's .306. If he hit .250 last year, you might not expect .191, but would .230 be that much of a surprise?

4. Someone on these boards said he loved projecting Giles HR total for this year. Last four years:

15

14

13

12

So you're sitting on a guy whose likely year is something less than .275 with 11 homers and a couple steals. You can't find that on waivers?

TOXIC ASSETS · Post by **TOXIC ASSETS** » Sat Jun 20, 2009 10:46 am

I'm in a satellite league with no in-season moves, so the guys you draft are the guys you're stuck wtih. As long as my OF doesn't sustain any injuries, I'll be ok. Giles seemed like a decent pick for 5th OF, but I was wrong on that one.