NFBC Message Boards

On Monday, Nov. 8th I participated in the industry's first mock baseball draft, with the results being published in Peter Kreutzer's Fantasy Baseball Guide 2005, which goes on sale in early February. It was a 12-team, mixed league, serpentine draft, consisting of 23 rounds and the standard 5x5 Rotisserie categories. However, batting average was replaced by on-base percentage, which explains why Barry Bonds went No. 1 overall (still questionable, I know). The participants were also under the impression that this league would be played out next year without any transactions, meaning you drafted and were stuck with all 23 players for the full year.



Okay, enough of that. For the entire draft results, pick up a copy of the magazine in early February. But for now, Peter is allowing me to post the first 2-3 rounds and allow you guys to have some fun with analysis and criticism (or praise, if need be).



I drafted second overall and gladly took Carlos Beltran. The order of the drafters included:



1. Barry Rosenbloom

2. Greg Ambrosius

3. Peter Kreutzer

4. Richard Fogel

5. Cory Schwartz (MLB.com)

6. Lori Rubinson

7. Lawr Michaels (creativesports.com)

8. Jason Grey (Mastersball.com)

9. Ron Shandler (BaseballHQ.com)

10. Matthew Berry (Rotopass.com)

11. Jason Pliml (mockdraftcentral.com)

12. Todd Zola (Mastersball.com)



Here are the results of Round 1:



1. Barry Bonds

2. Carlos Beltran

3. Albert Pujols

4. Bobby Abreu

5. Vladimir Guerrero

6. Miguel Tejada

7. Johan Santana

8. Alex Rodriguez

9. Adrian Beltre

10. Carl Crawford

11. Alfonso Soriano

12. Todd Helton



Round 2:

13. Scott Rolen

14. Edgar Renteria

15. Manny Ramirez

16. Derek Jeter

17. Randy Johnson

18. Eric Chavez

19. Ichiro Suzuki

20. Gary Sheffield

21. David Ortiz

22. Jason Schmidt

23. Hank Blalock

24. Eric Gagne



The third round was even more interesting. I took Curt Schilling third, giving me Beltran, Blalock and Schilling to start out. I'll add some other interesting analysis from this draft later in this post. Comments so far????

I guess what surprizes me is that Beltre and Crawford went before Helton. Santana at number 7 is a bit of surprize also. Don's get me wrong, Sanatana is a wonderful pitcher and I have seen him pitch often here in Minny and he is a lock for the AL Cy Young but still... Keep in mind this is spoken by someone who picked #7 this year and took Prior.

I, too am a bit surpirsed at Helton at 12. This is the second mock/projection that has him there. I still think that come draft day, owners will like his consistency and take him around 7 or 8. Maybe not 5, where he went in many drafts last year, but 12 is too low.



Another interesting note is the selection of Derek Jeter by Ron Shandler with the 16th overall. If I am not mistaken, in last year's Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, I think he spoke in less than glowing terms about Jeter. Funny how things change in a year...

I found Arod at #8 to be interesting in light of those who still thought he was a #1 pick! Helton at #12 is a very nice pick. Shandler on Jeter (2004 Baseball Forecaster): "I can't fathom the fascination with a player whose production has dropped 50% in the past 5 years" Now, he picks him a round too early. This is a crazy game and that's why we love it!

I agree that A-Rod at No. 8 would be a steal. I had in my mind the top five being Carlos Beltran, A-Rod, Pujols, Vlady and Tejada with Abreu at a strong six. Had Beltran gone No. 1, I was prepared to take Pujols, Guerrero or A-Rod. When you see the separation at shortstop between Tejada and the rest, he's even a worthy candidate. Third base is obviously a deeper position than shortstop, but A-Rod is still such a consistent performer that I likely would have taken him. I'm not saying I'm right, that was just my thought process.



The first round will be interesting this year as there are a lot of options and ways to go.

In terms of 2004, 5x5 roto-value based on this format (12-team mixed, OBP instead of BA) anyone care to guess the top-5 hitters, with ARod being considered still as a shortstop?



[ November 10, 2004, 04:19 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Hey Todd, I don't know the answer to this question, but I do have one in return for you. If you could get Todd Helton and Scott Rolen with your first two picks in the NFBC this year, would you be a happy man? Nice swing picks in this one!

If you could get Todd Helton and Scott Rolen with your first two picks in the NFBC this year, would you be a happy man?Ignoring the fact for a second that the NFBC has 3 extra teams, the chances of that happening are as good as the Red Sox winning the Worl...oh wait, never mind.



I was indeed pleased to get these guys at the swing. Both are solid OBP guys. Rolen did what he did on a bum knee in only 140 games and Coors played to its lowest HR park effect in years.



[ November 10, 2004, 04:30 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Okay, just for fun, here were the third round picks in this mock draft:



25. Ben Sheets

26. Curt Schilling

27. Magglio Ordonez

28. Roy Oswalt

29. Jim Thome

30. Carlos Delgado

31. Adam Dunn

32. Brad Lidge

33. Jimmy Rollins

34. Mark Prior

35. Scott Podsednik

36. Juan Pierre



Any surprises there? Sheets over Schilling? Ordonez in the top 30, even after last year's injury-plagued season? Lidge over Rivera? Prior this low? Still no Nomar? C'mon, let's talk some baseball.



Here I'm giving you the top 36 players that industry experts thought would be taken, giving you more than two rounds of results for next March's NFBC draft. Which two do you hope to get?



Time to talk baseball. Who's chimin' in?

OBP considerstion leaves me out.I don't want to clutter my mind with a stat that won't be a factor in the NFBC. I'm a purist. For me, BA is the only way for 5X5"s. But it's interesting and fun to see what others think. Thanks for the prior to publication peek.

I'm a purist. For me, BA is the only way for 5X5 Hmm, a true purist would still be playing single league 4x4 auction.



[ November 19, 2004, 05:33 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Here's the answer to the question above, the top-10 hitters using OBP in a mixed 5x5 league. These factor in "position scarcity" by comparing each position to the replacement set at their specified position.



Bonds-$66

Abreu-$58

Beltran-$52

ARod-$42

Pujols-$41

Vlad-$41

Crawford-$39

Podsednik-$39

Berkmann-$38

Ichiro-$37



only 2 non-OFers in the lot.



The top 3B was Beltre at $33.

The top 2B was Michael Young at $22

The top C was Pudge at $28.



Pujols (1B) and ARod (SS) are in the top-10 and lead their respective positions.

So I'm a "Purist", not a "True Purist">