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Every year there are some things that go on during a baseball season that just totally like (that was for you, LTD)goes without rhyme or reason. Something that just gnaws on me and has me questioning any skills I have in this game. This year it is Russell Branyan.

I've always thought of Branyan as a poor man's Jack Cust, who is a poor man's Adam Dunn, who would be a descendant of Dave Kingman.

Branyan had as many hits off lefties last year as I have had hot sex with Jennifer Aniston, which is of course, zero. Your loss, Jennifer, and picture please, Q .

Branyan is 33 and has never hit over .257 when he has had at least 100 at bats. Over the last three years he has hit .162 vs. lefties and .224 overall. He has always had that Bunyanesque power though, which has kept him fantasy relative.

This year getting full time play, Branyan has 19 home runs with a comparatively small 38 rbi to go with them. That, in itself, is not surprising. But the man is hitting .302 AND he is hitting .301 vs. lefties!

No explanation from me. I have no idea how or why.

Its as puzzling as a Walla Walla rant.

David Wright has changed his swing, giving into Citi Field's dimensions, that explains his four home runs.

A friend of mine explained that Raffy Furcal can now be a prime candidate for steroids, since his back is ok and he has just three home runs and four stolen bases and has hit the steroid wall, that would explain his year.

A streaky hitter who cannot hit lefties hitting .302 just defies logic. Branyan's breakout at 33 has my vote as the biggest half year surprise of 2009....





What?

RUSS Ortiz has 42 k's in 57 innings, with a 3.47?...and for a month he had as many homers as David Ortiz. Raise your hand if you think both of these Ortiz' are in their 40's.



Scott Podsednik is hitting .319 after 207 at bats?

Maybe we have a new formula for teams...have a power hitting left fielder, get him hurt or suspended and replace him with the speedy, hustling top of the order guy.



Good candidates, but I'll stick with Branyan.



[ June 28, 2009, 11:05 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Dan, EVERY year there are surprises like this that are completely unexplainable. As the industry delves deeper into statistics and sabermetrics, I become more and more irritated by stat heads who live and die by their research. There is an immeasurable element of skill in fantasy baseball directly related to gut feeling and intuition. Shawn has alluded to this before.



Don't let it get you down. Everyone has their fair share of hits and misses year in and year out- even those who put in the most possible research time. Even one as cocksure as Gekko who relies entirely on researching numbers and doesn't even watch games makes his fair share of mistakes.



I've already stated on earlier posts that Tom Glavine was a great example of this. While he's a poor comparison to Branyan, Glavine's critics and stat heads pronounced him dead for years and earlier in the decade, NO ONE believed he had a legitimate shot at 300 wins. While he hasn't been a fantasy stud in a decade, he was an adequate back end of the fantasy rotation for a long time to those that assumed the risk. Guile, health, confidence, longevity, motivation, karma, human behavior, and opportunity are things that sabermetrics cannot account for.



Fact is, if this game were that easily predictable, would we even enjoy it? Researching the correct stats the correct way will certainly increase one's odds, but it takes more than that to win the 100k. I remember reading Artie Rastelli's account that people laughed at him when he selected Beltran when he did. Be it luck or skill, every year the big winners are the one's who took chances on players others steered away from. Popular opinion's best attribute is being wrong.



Don't question your skills. You've already accomplished what few will in this contest. Even if you do lose your fantasy skills, you're a skilled and entertaining writer!