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YOU say there is not much luck in fantasy baseball...I say there is plenty.



I know there are some folks out there that insist that everything simply is what it is, and it's not so much luck as just things working themselves out.



To those folks I say...eat poo poo!



Just today...here are a few things I call luck...



NOT LUCK was Pujols getting two home runs.



LUCK was the Giants having a lead both times, and being willing to pitch to Pujols and take their chances.



NOT LUCK was BAL beating BOS.



LUCK was Smoltz rolling along with an 8 run lead, and being shut down by a rain delay...changing everything including momentum, winning pitcher, and winning team.



...too be continued...

Lance, I was poopoo'ed for a post during the offseason stating that when we have 390 people of a like mind that luck becomes the overwhelming factor. I think I even stated some of the same kind of instances and put a percentage to it, maybe 70 % luck.

The 30% skill factor becomes enormous since we have no control over the luck factor. I'd go back and find it but the Sandman is calling.

In short though, I agree.

What attracts us to fantasy baseball more? Is it the luck component or the skill component or is it an even mix?



IF fantasy baseball is 70% luck, then fantasy football is ___ % luck.



Yesterday, Carpenter was a victim of luck. I didn't see the game, just the highlights. All of the Giants hits that I saw (5 or so) on highlights looked like good pitches from Carpenter out of the strike zone. The hitters just seemed to make solid contact that went for hits. K/9 solid again. Only one walk issued but 6 earned runs against the Giants.

Lance, I'd say that every sport has a fair mix of luck to it. To that we all agree. I highly doubt it's 70 percent luck, but who am I to disagree with Doughboys?



Anyway, when our kids go out to play the first thing we say to them is "Good Luck." That should say it all.

I started out with fantasy football, Richard. After many years the luck factor became too much for me. I play in local leagues and a couple of small money leagues to keep it interesting.

At an NFFC level, with like minds and the level of fantasy players all being very good, I would put the luck factor at between 80-90%.



Can you imagine a football player with an anxiety disorder?

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I started out with fantasy football, Richard. After many years the luck factor became too much for me. I play in local leagues and a couple of small money leagues to keep it interesting.

At an NFFC level, with like minds and the level of fantasy players all being very good, I would put the luck factor at between 80-90%.



Can you imagine a football player with an anxiety disorder? If there's only a 10% skill factor in fantasy football then we should be selling entries faster than the lottery!! Dan, it's time to buy your wife a spot in the NFFC to see how lucky she really is. Let's put this forumula to the test!!



Having watched certain owners outsmart me for 20+ years in all kinds of fantasy sports games, I'm convinced that I need luck to win a title but nothing beats skill. There is no fantasy sport, in my opinion, that has greater luck than skill attached to it. You still need to be a skillful drafter, a skillful in-season manager, and awake at the controls all year to win in the fantasy sports I'm familiar with. A blind squirrel just doesn't find an acorn at this level based on luck.



But again, just my opinion. As I said to my daughter last night before she played a softball game, "GOOD LUCK."

Its not as bad as filling out the weekly football pool every week, only to get beat by the wife who picks teams because "they have nice colors"

The 10-20% skill level that is needed is magnified though with most of it being at the draft.

How long these players play without injury, what types of games players find themselves in from week-to-week, weather conditions are for the most part, luck.

But close to injuries in football is the situational luck. Having many first and goals from the one can sure make a fantasy player with that running back sure look smart. The pass defenders decision to commit pass interference or simply lunge on an 80 yard pass interference call can make a loser into a winner and vice versa instantly. Its exciting, sure, but luck, good or bad.

I'm not saying that luck completely rules fantasy football, just that when everyone has the same skills in fantasy football, luck is the overriding factor.



I know this is a baseball Message Board, but thought I'd throw this in.

Has a coaching change ever changed the dynamics of a team more than the Bowlen firing Shannahan has?

With that change the Broncos go from one of the best teams to one of the worst, one of the best coaches in the league to an unknown, one of the best quarterbacks to one of the worst, and a very unhappy good receiver.

If Bowlen could turn back the hands of time, I am betting that none of those events occur.



[ July 01, 2009, 09:43 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

There obviously is some luck involved but, and I really hate to bring his name up , if that is the overriding factor then Gekko is the luckiest person I have ever seen playing fantasy baseball. I think to win the overall requires some luck but to be in the money on a consistent basis requires a huge amount of skill.

There are even others with better track records than Gekko. I'm not suggesting any of these players are lucky. In fact, quite the contrary. These type players maximize their skill level in order to eke out every percent that they have control over. The hours of studying and the thought processes are huge. Aside from the luck factor, that is the key to winning in any fantasy sport.

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Lance, I was poopoo'ed for a post during the offseason stating that when we have 390 people of a like mind that luck becomes the overwhelming factor. you will NEVER have 390 like-minded people. there will always be great white sharks.

Originally posted by Dawg:

There obviously is some luck involved but, and I really hate to bring his name up , if that is the overriding factor then Gekko is the luckiest person I have ever seen playing fantasy baseball. I think to win the overall requires some luck but to be in the money on a consistent basis requires a huge amount of skill. i've won the 100K in the NFFC (football)

i've won two consecutive NFBC (baseball) leagues and placed in the top 6 overall.



the accomplishment i respect most is hands-down my baseball accomplishment. the money was good for football, but the luck factor is WAY higher than in baseball.

Post I made about LUCK and fantasy football.



posted November 05, 2008 09:19 AM

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

How much does your fantasy football success depend on something TOTALLY out of your control? I'm talking about the amount of points scored against you by other teams. Consider the following FACTS taken from the NFFC.



avg # of wins for the 20 teams with the MOST points scored against = 3.0

avg # of wins for the 20 teams with the LEAST points scored against = 6.4



Obviously it pays VERY SIGNIFICANTLY to “luck” into a favorable schedule. That’s a 113% increase in the avg # of wins based on 100% luck!



Twenty teams not enough sample size for you? How about 50 teams?

avg # of wins for the 50 teams with the MOST points scored against = 3.3

avg # of wins for the 50 teams with the LEAST points scored against = 6.2



Again, even with a much greater sample size, it pays VERY SIGNIFICANTLY to “luck” into a favorable schedule. That’s an 88% increase in the avg # of wins based on 100% luck!



The above data shows how the following scenario is possible with 2 teams from the same league…

Team Whatever It Takes BWAZZ has a 9-0 record with 1230.5 points scored.

Team Hammerheads has a 5-4 record with 1280.7 points scored.



Why such a difference in records? You guessed it…points scored against!!

Team Whatever It Takes BWAZZ has 915.45 scored against it (102 per week)!!!

Team Hammerheads has 1175.95 scored against it (131 per week)!!!



On average, Team Hammerheads has had to endure teams scoring 29 more points a week against him than Team Whatever It Takes BWAZZ. That’s almost 5 touchdowns a week, every week. Imagine starting off in that hole every week due to no fault of your own!

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I started out with fantasy football, Richard. After many years the luck factor became too much for me. I play in local leagues and a couple of small money leagues to keep it interesting.

At an NFFC level, with like minds and the level of fantasy players all being very good, I would put the luck factor at between 80-90%.



Can you imagine a football player with an anxiety disorder? If there's only a 10% skill factor in fantasy football then we should be selling entries faster than the lottery!! Dan, it's time to buy your wife a spot in the NFFC to see how lucky she really is. Let's put this forumula to the test!!



Having watched certain owners outsmart me for 20+ years in all kinds of fantasy sports games, I'm convinced that I need luck to win a title but nothing beats skill. There is no fantasy sport, in my opinion, that has greater luck than skill attached to it. You still need to be a skillful drafter, a skillful in-season manager, and awake at the controls all year to win in the fantasy sports I'm familiar with. A blind squirrel just doesn't find an acorn at this level based on luck.



But again, just my opinion. As I said to my daughter last night before she played a softball game, "GOOD LUCK." [/QUOTE]Blind squirrels, guppies, great white sharks...we just use and abuse the animals!



It is still a skill game, even with 70% luck. Heck, fantasy football is still a skill game, even with 85% luck.

It is what players do with that 30% and 15% skill level that seperates the minnows from the pirahna ( I wanted to give our friends, the shark and guppy a break)

If the skill level was over 50% in baseball or football, the bottom feeders( is that a fish?) would never have a chance. The skills of the upper echelon would overcome the lack of skills AND good luck from the lower echelon. As is, this is the perfect mix.



[ July 01, 2009, 10:51 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

If the skill level was over 50% in baseball or football, the bottom feeders( is that a fish?) would never have a chance. the skill level in the main event is over 50% in baseball. the bottom feeders have a chance, however, that chance is very small and requires all the stars to align.



if one of the great white sharks ever came out and offered NFBC advice b4 the draft and during the season, folks could just copy them and do reasonably well.



my talk of gaudin on the MB could have in fact torched my chances at reacquiring him 2 weeks ago. i believe i had the 2nd or third highest bid on gaudin in the entire NFBC. however due to playing out the overall main event through our individual leagues :rolleyes: , i got smoked.

Name ADP Min Max Total Picks

Hanley Ramirez 1.5 1 4 26

Jose Reyes 2.46 1 5 26



So did the headhunters get LUCKY getting Jose Reyes with the fifth pick?



Albert Pujols 2.73 1 4 26



How about Less then Dave who got Pujols with the 4th pick?



To me both picks were easy picks - one turned out to be very unlucky and one was very lucky.



What about Carl Crawford being there at 38?



LUCKY



Rollins still on the board at 14?



UNLUCKY



Certainly skill plays a big part in fantasy baseball but don't dismiss LUCK.

HARD WORK IS WHAT WINS.

POSSIBILITY OF GETTING LUCKY IS WHAT FILLS THE LEAGUES.

HARD WORK IS WHAT WINS.

POSSIBILITY OF GETTING LUCKY IS WHAT FILLS THE LEAGUES.

Baseball 26 Weeks

Football 16 Weeks

The baseball season is 10 weeks longer than football. This allows luck to be removed MUCH more than in football.



Baseball 23 Starting players

Football 10 Starting players

In baseball, you start 13 more players than football. An unlucky injury to a star player has less of an impact in baseball.



Baseball Rotisserie game format

Football H2H game format

In baseball, you play against every team every week. That's as fair as you get. In football, you get the "random" scheduling which ALWAYS produces inequities. Sometimes these inequities are large enough to doom a team, independent of the skill of the owner. Imagine spending hundreds of hours of prep to lose out just because you had a "bad" random schedule. :rolleyes:



Having played both sports and excelled at both, my opinion is that fantasy baseball is a "thinking man" game. Fantasy football is more of a "weekend warrior" game or dare I say Neanderthal-type game. Both games are appealing to the right masses.

In the NFFC main event, I’ve been burned TWICE in 5 years!!! Both times I had more points than the team with the best record. It’s hard enough to acquire that many points, only then to lose out to a lesser team. No good can come from punishing owners who had superior teams. Makes me question why I keep playing. And that’s just MY story. Imagine all the other blokes who have been burnt throughout the years in all the different formats out there.



Imagine in baseball if were the top point scorer in your NFBC league at season’s end. Then, the team who finished 6th place was awarded the league prize of 5K. Happens all the time in football. Bahhh!!!!



With that said, Greg has tried to reduce the importance of the H2H scheduling in his NFFC game by allowing more teams into the “fantasy playoffs”. This does help in that regard; however, the teams playing for the 100K, are now competing against more teams (reducing their odds on winning). IMO, only the best teams should make the playoffs. Unfortunately, the “Neanderthal” mentality of most cliental doesn’t allow for that to happen.

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Baseball 23 Starting players

Football 10 Starting players

In baseball, you start 13 more players than football. An unlucky injury to a star player has less of an impact in baseball. Of the 10 starting players in football, two of them are kicker and team defense. Kicker and defense replacements (often top tier) are ALWAYS available via FAAB. So really, it's only 8 players for football, making the baseball-football ratio almost 3-to-1.

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

YOU say there is not much luck in fantasy baseball...I say there is plenty.



I know there are some folks out there that insist that everything simply is what it is, and it's not so much luck as just things working themselves out.



To those folks I say...eat poo poo!



Just today...here are a few things I call luck...



NOT LUCK was Pujols getting two home runs.



LUCK was the Giants having a lead both times, and being willing to pitch to Pujols and take their chances.



NOT LUCK was BAL beating BOS.



LUCK was Smoltz rolling along with an 8 run lead, and being shut down by a rain delay...changing everything including momentum, winning pitcher, and winning team.



...too be continued... Is there some luck involved? Sure, but it tends to even out over a 6 month schedule (except for massive injury issues to guys who have always been healthy in the past). Does Childs/Quahoags track record have anything to do with good luck? Absolutely not- try skill and hard work. Does your track record of one top half of the league finish in six tries have anything to do with bad luck? Heck no.

"Dude???"







Enough with the slamming of us fantasy FOOTBALL players, GG!

Excellent visual Lance !

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

YOU say there is not much luck in fantasy baseball...I say there is plenty.



I know there are some folks out there that insist that everything simply is what it is, and it's not so much luck as just things working themselves out.



To those folks I say...eat poo poo!



Just today...here are a few things I call luck...



NOT LUCK was Pujols getting two home runs.



LUCK was the Giants having a lead both times, and being willing to pitch to Pujols and take their chances.



NOT LUCK was BAL beating BOS.



LUCK was Smoltz rolling along with an 8 run lead, and being shut down by a rain delay...changing everything including momentum, winning pitcher, and winning team.



...too be continued... Is there some luck involved? Sure, but it tends to even out over a 6 month schedule (except for massive injury issues to guys who have always been healthy in the past). Does Childs/Quahoags track record have anything to do with good luck? Absolutely not- try skill and hard work. Does your track record of one top half of the league finish in six tries have anything to do with bad luck? Heck no. [/QUOTE]This is my 4th try, and you are ahead of me right now...but I'll crush you by season's end.



I'll show you my SKILL!



My post pointed out some luck. There is luck. Look at previous WINNERS finishes from ear to year. Some years they get crushed by injuries/bad luck...other years they stay healthy or win more bids, or get into softer leagues...luck.

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

YOU say there is not much luck in fantasy baseball...I say there is plenty.



I know there are some folks out there that insist that everything simply is what it is, and it's not so much luck as just things working themselves out.



To those folks I say...eat poo poo!



Just today...here are a few things I call luck...



NOT LUCK was Pujols getting two home runs.



LUCK was the Giants having a lead both times, and being willing to pitch to Pujols and take their chances.



NOT LUCK was BAL beating BOS.



LUCK was Smoltz rolling along with an 8 run lead, and being shut down by a rain delay...changing everything including momentum, winning pitcher, and winning team.



...too be continued... Is there some luck involved? Sure, but it tends to even out over a 6 month schedule (except for massive injury issues to guys who have always been healthy in the past). Does Childs/Quahoags track record have anything to do with good luck? Absolutely not- try skill and hard work. Does your track record of one top half of the league finish in six tries have anything to do with bad luck? Heck no. [/QUOTE]This is my 4th try, and you are ahead of me right now...but I'll crush you by season's end.



I'll show you my SKILL!



My post pointed out some luck. There is luck. Look at previous WINNERS finishes from ear to year. Some years they get crushed by injuries/bad luck...other years they stay healthy or win more bids, or get into softer leagues...luck. [/QUOTE]You should my team is not very good, but that is my fault not luck. Crush me a few times after that including in a couple of head to head leagues and we are even.