Adrian Beltre is a trap
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Walla Walla
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- Joined: Fri Mar 05, 2004 6:00 pm
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Adrian Beltre is a trap
Adrian Beltre is being called a first round pick this year by many. He did have a great year in 2004. Ron Shandler has him rated high and picked him 9th in a recent draft. So why do I think this is a trap? The first reason is his past numbers. He wouldn’t be the first player to have a great year and than sink back to his normal numbers. Next is the change in leagues and new ballpark. Finally I wonder how the big contract will affect him. He has had problems in the past of not being ready to play. Last year he knew he had to produce being it was his contract year. Now that he has signed for 64 million will he keep that drive going? He could overcome all this and put up another great year but I think it’s a trap.
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Cornbread Maxwell
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2005 6:00 pm
Adrian Beltre is a trap
First message here fellas - pretty cool site you have.
I would like to say that the argument walla walla justed posted against Beltre is based upon a statistical return to the mean theory, which in baseball and other statistical sports is usually sound. However, what it also is doing is taking out any fundamental analysis of the situation. Most people know Beltre really struggled with odd ailments and complications to surgeries prior to last yr, so one could look at last yr as the first yr his development and health were positive at the same time. That would then suggest a return to the mean theory as being innaccurate for using it as a basis to judge Beltre.
I guess what I am saying is that looking at the numbers is only one half of the equation. One must also discover why something happened the way it did.
I would like to say that the argument walla walla justed posted against Beltre is based upon a statistical return to the mean theory, which in baseball and other statistical sports is usually sound. However, what it also is doing is taking out any fundamental analysis of the situation. Most people know Beltre really struggled with odd ailments and complications to surgeries prior to last yr, so one could look at last yr as the first yr his development and health were positive at the same time. That would then suggest a return to the mean theory as being innaccurate for using it as a basis to judge Beltre.
I guess what I am saying is that looking at the numbers is only one half of the equation. One must also discover why something happened the way it did.