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Projections.

Every magazine has them. Most web sites. Some players punch numbers in computers, and voila, projections!

Once in Las Vegas I was giving John Zaleski (Get better, John! ) the razz about his previous years projections. He exclaimed," Hey, when I got home and ran through the projections, it projected that you would win the league! So they were right!"...Classic.

In my mind, projections are for show. They are the first things that readers glance at while thumbing through a magazine at the store. Like seeing the aftermath of a car crash, we just can't turn our eyes away.

The Bill James Handbook is the first fantasy related book to come out each year. I read it, Not for the projections, but for the information that sometimes leads him to his projections.

James is a fantasy "mommy". Which is to say, that when he does projections, he can't stop thinking about the kids.

Some are downright comical.

Here are three projections of home runs, rbi, and runs.

28/88/86

27/90/80

25/93/79

All similar, but the top two players will be taken in the 2-4 rounds of NFBC drafts, while number three isn't even a thought, even by round 10.

The players are Jayson Werth, Joey Votto, and Kyle Blanks.

Besides bringing comic relief, it is pleasant to see projections outside the box. A big pat on the back there. Most publications regurgitate last years numbers and make them this years projections. They're of little use to anybody but a fantasy beginner.

Some projectors enjoy the age and experience factor. They are the "fogeys" and will swear that Magglio can keep up his .332 pace over the last three years or that Vladdy will be reborn in Texas. James is as far removed from being a fogey as anyone. To illustrate his fantasy mommy ways more clearly, here is the Bill James projected stolen base leaders for 2010:

1. Ellsbury- 64

2. Reyes- 57

3. Bourn- 54

4. Morgan- 52

5. Stubbs- 51

6. Davis -50

7. Brantley -48

8. Escobar -42

9. Borbon -42

10. Andrus -41

11. Crawford -41

12. Jennings -39

13. BJ Upton -39



Before rushing to the lists and moving Stubbs and Brantley and Jennings up, remember that last year James had Chris Dickerson down for 37 steals and Cameron Maybin down for 32.

Even when one of his kids does break out like Andrew McCutchen did last year, it is not enough. McCutchen ended the year with a good amount of stolen bases, 22. Still below James projection of 35.

James over enthusiastic numbers for kids signals readers to watch out for these youngsters. But to put much stock in his projections themselves, would be silly. We may as well spend our time projecting what player will be on the disabled list for 60 days.

In your opinion, will Brantley and Jennings start the year in the majors with starting jobs? That's what they need to do first if they want to meet the projections.



As far as projecting who will end up on the 60 day DL, I'm going with Eric Chavez and Jason Schmidt.

I think James prefaces his projections with that caveat. That they are based on the assumption of getting a certain amount of ab's or IP's, whether it be on the low side or high side.



"As far as projecting who will end up on the 60 day DL, I'm going with Eric Chavez and Jason Schmidt."



Don't you mean, who will START on the 60 day DL? But yes, good calls on both.

i read an explanation of james projections. he pretty much projects his "starters" for full playing time. the long explanation made a lot of sense. he knows he will be way over on the counting stats do to playing time. obviously he has as many misses as the next guy- but in mccutchens case those 35 sb's were for a full season. probably not that far off.

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

I think James prefaces his projections with that caveat. That they are based on the assumption of getting a certain amount of ab's or IP's, whether it be on the low side or high side.



"As far as projecting who will end up on the 60 day DL, I'm going with Eric Chavez and Jason Schmidt."



Don't you mean, who will START on the 60 day DL? But yes, good calls on both. Totally disagree. Chavez will start spring training and play in the first two games. Only then will he go on the 60 day DL.

Originally posted by headhunters:

i read an explanation of james projections. he pretty much projects his "starters" for full playing time. the long explanation made a lot of sense. he knows he will be way over on the counting stats do to playing time. obviously he has as many misses as the next guy- but in mccutchens case those 35 sb's were for a full season. probably not that far off. But are these two guys "starters" is my question.

Originally posted by headhunters:

i read an explanation of james projections. he pretty much projects his "starters" for full playing time. the long explanation made a lot of sense. he knows he will be way over on the counting stats do to playing time. obviously he has as many misses as the next guy- but in mccutchens case those 35 sb's were for a full season. probably not that far off. Don't get too caught up in the McCutchen projection. Before last year, he had Chris Davis at 40/118/.302!

Predicting any rookie to hit .302 is like trying to catch the wind, but a guy who misses pitches like Davis.....

To his credit, he points out the losers from the previous years projections, as well as the winners.

There is no caveat for young players in front of his projections. I like that though. Sort of saying, 'Don't take my numbers verbatim, but this is a heads up that this kid will produce'

By the way, I didn't pass any judgement on the SB projections because no one bites in that category worse than me. The only reason I was even competitive in that category this past year was that I picked up Rajai for $10 in every league the week before he was the bomb.



I have done my own projections; I've used others'. I've spread my speed among a number of players; I've tried for the one or two big runners. Doesn't matter. I always leave the draft thinking I got 170 and ending up with (good time to use the new team pages):



2005: 123

2006: 116

2007: 150

2008: 147

2009: 152



I guess I've been improving, but I still think I have to struggle with it in season every year. Anyway, anyone else want to offer tips on how they go about trying to conquer the SB category at the draft table?

Originally posted by bjoak:

In your opinion, will Brantley and Jennings start the year in the majors with starting jobs? That's what they need to do first if they want to meet the projections.



As far as projecting who will end up on the 60 day DL, I'm going with Eric Chavez and Jason Schmidt. Is Schmidt still on a roster?

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

In your opinion, will Brantley and Jennings start the year in the majors with starting jobs? That's what they need to do first if they want to meet the projections.



As far as projecting who will end up on the 60 day DL, I'm going with Eric Chavez and Jason Schmidt. Is Schmidt still on a roster? [/QUOTE]If he is, I'm betting he'll be on the 60-day. Same with Prior.

The projections tell us what we WANT to hear. We discount as "garbage" those that don't agree with our preconceptions and use the ones that do agree as validation.



Why? Maybe I am only speaking for myself, but I think we are gamblers who think we can catch lightning in a bottle because we've got that "feeling" about someone and the projections told us so. And it is fun.



I truly think that is why guys like Dave Clum win so often as he believes what he sees more than what he reads.



Since we all have such a deep and broad base of knowledge (real or imagined) from years of participating in fantasy leagues, I wonder what it would be like to start over again...no preconceived notions or insights...take the historicals and projections, and see what the results would be?



BTW...watch out for the Baseball HQ information so far this year...not really been impressed...I found a dozen and half errors in position and when Johnson moved to Arizona, they projected his PX and SX to go from the around 115 (slightly above league average) to 130-135 (just below elite). I can see SOME increase in power, but do you get faster in the desert?

Originally posted by bjoak:

In your opinion, will Brantley and Jennings start the year in the majors with starting jobs? That's what they need to do first if they want to meet the projections.



As far as projecting who will end up on the 60 day DL, I'm going with Eric Chavez and Jason Schmidt. I'd say with TB's history with Top Prospects the answer there is definitely NO. Matt Joyce I think will get a long look and a chance to justify the Edwin Jackson deal.



Cleveland on the other hand has no reason to not trot Brantley out there to start the season. Austin Kearns might platoon against tough LHP's but otherwise Brantley has only Trevor Crowe to compete with for playing time.



The Indians are in full rebuilding mode - and the sb's are the safest part of Brantley's projection IMO.