NFBC Message Boards

Hey all. I've completed my first round of projections for hitters and this weekend will start on pitchers.



I've been in multiple satellite leagues and have seen many results and have my own adp list based on numerous pay drafts.



I don't know the exact time I will be on, but it will be sometime between 7pm and 8pm. I need to wait until the wife is giving our baby a bath.



Join me then or post questions now and I'll answer them when I get here. Ask me any question you want. I am going to win the 100K and the auction championship this year so maybe I can help answer your questions.







[ January 30, 2010, 11:32 AM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

I'll start...



Thoughts on Shandler playing in the NFBC and possibly in my league?



I think it's great that Ron is fianlly entering the BIGTIME. We'll see if he has what it takes to do good against people putting up big money.



As for being in my league, I welcome it for 2 reasons...



1. I know the Ron Shandler playbook based on his site and book. He doesn't know the Gekko Playbook.



2. I know where Ron's playbook is wrong. Last year I could pickoff the BS rankings very easily. Napoli, Chris Davis, Furcal, Joba, etc... This year's flops...watch and find out!

Hey Mark - I'll start you off - Brett Anderson seems to be shooting up the rankings based on the drafts I've seen. He was drafted in the 8th rd (pick 109) in my slow draft - placing him in the Top 25 SP's in that draft. The talent is there - but are you worried about the 70IP jump in workload from '08 to '09 coming back to bite him at some point this year???

1. What draft spot do you prefer to draft in this year?



2. Is there a hitter that is being taken in the 1st RD that you feel will be a bust or not perform to his ADP?



3. Is there a particular hitter that is being taken in the 2nd/3rd RD that will perform above his ADP?



4. Is D.Wright being drafted where he should be or in your opinion will he make owners sorry for passing on him?





Nelson

Originally posted by Gekko:

I'll start...



Thoughts on Shandler playing in the NFBC and possibly in my league?



I think it's great that Ron is fianlly entering the BIGTIME. We'll see if he has what it takes to do good against people putting up big money.



As for being in my league, I welcome it for 2 reasons...



1. I know the Ron Shandler playbook based on his site and book. He doesn't know the Gekko Playbook.



2. I know where Ron's playbook is wrong. Last year I could pickoff the BS rankings very easily. Napoli, Chris Davis, Furcal, Joba, etc... This year's flops...watch and find out! My question is ... was Ron very high on many of your bust picks last year from the nfbc main? It's hard to remember all of them since they weren't on my team. Milledge and Gomez is all I can remember. Just spicing it up, gg.



My second question (if I get one) is...

It seems like many are high on Carlos Gonzalez. He's a 6th-7th rd pick so far. Are you concerned with his playing time in the Rockies' OF to produce like a 6th rd pick?

Yunel or Alcides Escobar?

Rollins or Reyes?

H Matsui or Ortiz?

Joba or Dice K?

Your opinion of having two main event weekends?

The odds of Shandler beating you?

Hey Mark.



- with two main event teams, first 10 rounds, will you try to get two different rosters in case injuries strike your key guys? Or will you go after the same guys in both, if available, because you value having certain players?



- along the same lines...do you employ the same approach in both drafts or go after the 100k with two different strategies?

Mark,

I've heard people say that Vegas is the toughest venue in the NFBC. With all the big industry names coming to Citi Field would you say that it is the toughest venue for 2010?

alright guys, i have 30 min to eat dinner and chat it up here! let's go

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Hey Mark - I'll start you off - Brett Anderson seems to be shooting up the rankings based on the drafts I've seen. He was drafted in the 8th rd (pick 109) in my slow draft - placing him in the Top 25 SP's in that draft. The talent is there - but are you worried about the 70IP jump in workload from '08 to '09 coming back to bite him at some point this year??? hi ryan. anderson really put it all together in the 2nd half last year. keeps the ball on the gound. i like what i see. as for being darfted in the 8th round, i'm not seeing it. maybe 9th round IF there was a huge SP run.



i'm not concerned about his innings spike. others may be, but i'm not. any pitcher can get hurt, even steady ones like johan

Originally posted by The Franchise:

1. What draft spot do you prefer to draft in this year?



2. Is there a hitter that is being taken in the 1st RD that you feel will be a bust or not perform to his ADP?



3. Is there a particular hitter that is being taken in the 2nd/3rd RD that will perform above his ADP?



4. Is D.Wright being drafted where he should be or in your opinion will he make owners sorry for passing on him?





Nelson hi nelson. some good questions here. ler me take a stab...



1. i always prefer an early slot, but any of them can work. it's about the whole draft, not just the first round. in fact, i like to look at who i can get at the backend of the draft FIRST and then try to tailor my team around that. i may be in the minority in that thinking, but so be it



2. i'm not a kemp fan. K's too much. torre plays games with the lineup. if kemp slumps for a couple weeks, torre will have him bating 7th or 8th! don't get me wrong, kemp will still have impressive stats...just not the stats everyone thinks



3. yes. look at justin upton. guy can be a legit 30/30 .300 hitter THIS year. according to the early pay drafts his adp is mid 2nd round. 30/30 .300 puts him in the middle of the first round.



4. no one has offered a plausible reason why wright's power tanked ast year. my guess was "it was mental". assuming he has his head on straight, he will be a value pick.

Originally posted by rkulaski:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

I'll start...



Thoughts on Shandler playing in the NFBC and possibly in my league?



I think it's great that Ron is fianlly entering the BIGTIME. We'll see if he has what it takes to do good against people putting up big money.



As for being in my league, I welcome it for 2 reasons...



1. I know the Ron Shandler playbook based on his site and book. He doesn't know the Gekko Playbook.



2. I know where Ron's playbook is wrong. Last year I could pickoff the BS rankings very easily. Napoli, Chris Davis, Furcal, Joba, etc... This year's flops...watch and find out! My question is ... was Ron very high on many of your bust picks last year from the nfbc main? It's hard to remember all of them since they weren't on my team. Milledge and Gomez is all I can remember. Just spicing it up, gg.



My second question (if I get one) is...

It seems like many are high on Carlos Gonzalez. He's a 6th-7th rd pick so far. Are you concerned with his playing time in the Rockies' OF to produce like a 6th rd pick? [/QUOTE]when shandler was wrong it was BIG. look at how high a pick chris davis was valued at. napoli was high for a catcher. furcal high too. joba as well. at least when i missed it was on "lesser" type players. last year my issue was reading to much into small sample sizes.



according to my adp, carlos gonzo's adp is 7th round. am i concerned about his playing time. kind of. reminds me of the twins situation last year. span, gomez, kubel, young and cuddyer for 4 spots. someone is going to lose out. maybe the first person to slump. with that said, he had a good finish last year. he's a talent, but if you select him, don't be faint of heart.

Originally posted by Trash Man:

Yunel or Alcides Escobar?

Rollins or Reyes?

H Matsui or Ortiz?

Joba or Dice K?

Your opinion of having two main event weekends?

The odds of Shandler beating you? *Yunel for more rounded stats. escobar for sb

*Rollins

*Ortiz

*Neither

*2 main event weekend...no problem here. i wish there were multiple times you could draft on the same weekend.

*very small...maybe 10%

Originally posted by la Jolla:

Hey Mark.



- with two main event teams, first 10 rounds, will you try to get two different rosters in case injuries strike your key guys? Or will you go after the same guys in both, if available, because you value having certain players?



- along the same lines...do you employ the same approach in both drafts or go after the 100k with two different strategies? hi scott.



i will try and get the same "core" players, but will alternate the urrounding cast in the first 10 rounds. i ususally have a "backup" player for everyone i'm targeting.



i'm going with the same strategy in both main events...balance.

Originally posted by freddiezee:

Mark,

I've heard people say that Vegas is the toughest venue in the NFBC. With all the big industry names coming to Citi Field would you say that it is the toughest venue for 2010? i'd probably say the toughest venue is whoever is in my league.

seriously though, if you are prepared enough, it won't matter where you draft.



alright guys, i'll do this again maybe this weekend, but certainly next week. got baby duty now

Mark,



How many team are you taking on this year including all satellites and local leagues?



Are you the favorite to repeat again in the Mixed $1300?



Is Pujols worth $50 this year. I can keep him at that price in a draft.



Thanks

Do you think with how weak the catching position is this year that you really want to get one of the top 5 or do you just take the value as it comes? What catcher is being undervalued early based on your current ADP list?

Whats up Gek put this in order and tell why.



E Santana F Liriano Jonathan Sanchez Wade Davis Dice K. THANK'S

MR GEKKO,BRETT GARDNER NYY HE START? AND GETS 500 (AB) IS 40SB 90RUNS POSSIBLE?

You call it "Friday NIGHT" chat, and begin at 2:59pm pst???



Go all in next time and begin when those on the west coast are home.



Friday DAY chats are just what you got...small turnout.



C'mon Double G!

Originally posted by pinstripepower:

MR GEKKO,BRETT GARDNER NYY HE START? AND GETS 500 (AB) IS 40SB 90RUNS POSSIBLE? IF he starts, those numbers are certainly possible. I (nor anyone else including the yankees) expect him to start the majority of games.

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Mark,



How many team are you taking on this year including all satellites and local leagues?



Are you the favorite to repeat again in the Mixed $1300?



Is Pujols worth $50 this year. I can keep him at that price in a draft.



Thanks i imagine i'll be in 7-8 45 round no faab slow drafts. zero local leagues. 2 main events. 1 $1,300 auction. and i thin that's it.



am i the favorite? not sure, i'd have to see the final signup list. i might as well mention that if you had stopped bidding on milledge last year and "stuck" me with him for $17, the winner may have been different!! i owe you guys a couple beers!

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Is Pujols worth $50 this year. I can keep him at that price in a draft.

is he WORTH $50...in my model, yes. would i keep him for $50...no. i'd throw him back and try to get him for a few bucks less.

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Whats up Gek put this in order and tell why.



E Santana F Liriano Jonathan Sanchez Wade Davis Dice K. THANK'S 1. E.Santana

2. Liriano

3. Wade Davis

4. Sanchez and Dice K



Why? Santana has the goods to put up a great season IF his elbow holds up. at the end of the year, his velocity was back up. if his velocity is good in spring training, he's a strong buy given his adp.



Liriano's numbers in winter ball have been tremendous. unfortunatley he's pitching against the likes of mostly double A hitters. i'm cautiously optimisitic about him, but would really like to see him K'ing major leaguers this spring before i buy in 100%. if you remember he was "throwing the lights out of the ball" before last season and he fizzled when the cutain came up. also need to note that his CAREER splits between outdoor games (bad results) and indoor games (good results) are quite drastic. with the twins now an outdoor team, liriano will likely be hyped up too much to acquire for any real profit.



Wade Davis is a nice sleeper candidate. i thouched on him in another thread.



not sure what it is, just not fans of Sanchez and Dice K.



[ January 30, 2010, 10:26 AM: Message edited by: Gekko ]