NFBC Message Boards

According to my own ADP charts, these are the first 15 players taken in NFBC pay drafts. Out of these 15, how many do you think will be first round picks NEXT year? Those are the one you should be selecting this year.



If you had to pick three of these players to fall out of the first round NEXT year, which three would you pick (and why)? My picks at the end.



Albert Pujols

Hanley Ramirez

Alex Rodriguez

Ryan Braun

Chase Utley

Matt Kemp

Mark Teixeira

Prince Fielder

Evan Longoria

Miguel Cabrera

Carl Crawford

Ryan Howard

Joe Mauer

Troy Tulowitzki

Tim Lincecum



1. Kemp - K's too much. Torre plays too many lineup games. Power may not be legit IMO.



2. Miggy - Just have a bad feeling about him this year. Bad team. Dealing with personal problems made public. Outside chance at missing time (suspeneded) due to personal decisions.



3. Mauer - Catchers never last for long in the first round.

Gekko - is that the order that your ADP currently has them going? I have been doing a modified one using the slow draft samples that Greg has posted and mine has Mauer and Tulo much higher. It also has the two Rays lower. Just wondering, since your samples would be different than mine.

To answer your question, I would say that Mauer, Tulowitzki, Crawford, Howard and Lincecum won't be first round picks in 2011. I think the odds say that it will be even more than that....

Tim Lincecum - Pitchers, like catchers, unless they are Randy Johnson have a tough time justifying a first round pick consistently.



Troy Tulowitzki - Not sure who this guy really is. Streaky at the least and he may not be able to produce 1st round numbers this year.



Joe Mauer - For all the reasons you just mentioned. Injury history and probability being the #1 reason he could slip.



Jon

I'm not buying the Cabrera argument Mark - Not too many guys in baseball who have a chance to reel off a Triple Crown campaign - age and talent means means he's stays in the Top 15 I think. A career season this year wouldn't surprise me at all - meaning he'll go higher next year - not lower IMO.



My three from your list would be:



Ryan Howard - He's already a borderline 1st Rounder this year as owners playing the scarcity card are moving Tulo, Crawford, Kinsler ahead of Howard at the end of the First then hoping to snag him on the way back - the BA and the emergence of other reliable 1B power options (Gonzalez, Morales, Butler, Davis) will firmly plant Howard in Rd 2 next season.



Lincecum - Again - I'm not even buying that he'll have a 1st rd ADP in NFBC drafts THIS year - despite your rankings.



Tulowitski - I'll agree with Dobs on Tulo - I also think bounceback years by either (or both) Reyes and Rollins will drag him back down the list.



The follow up question is who do you think takes their place next year?



I'll nominate Reyes and Wright as two guys we'll see back here next season and Justin Upton who will begin a long run of Top 15 seasons in 2011.



[ February 04, 2010, 10:10 AM: Message edited by: Ryan Carey ]

2005 ADP

1. A.Rodriguez

2. A.Pujols

3. V.Guerrero

4. M.Tejada

5. B.Abreu

6. C.Beltran

7. M.Ramirez

8. A.Soriano

9. J.Santana

10. C.Crawford

11. M.Teixeira

12. R.Johnson

13. I.Suzuki

14. D.Ortiz

15. M.Cabrera



2006 ADP

1. A.Rodriguez(2005)

2. A.Pujols(2005)

3. V.Guerrero(2005)

4. M.Teixeira(2005)

5. C.Crawford(2005)

6. D.Lee

7. D.Wright

8. M.Ramirez(2005)

9. J.Bay

10. J.Santana(2005)

11. B.Abreu(2005)

12. D.Ortiz(2005)

13. M.Cabrera(2005)

14. C.Figgins

15. J.Reyes

>>>5 first time players in 2006 Top 15 (Lee, Wright, Bay, Figgins, Reyes)

>>>4 of 5 dropping out of 2005 Top 15 stayed in 2006 2nd round:

C.Beltran ADP 17

M.Tejada ADP 18

I.Suzuki ADP 21

A.Soriano ADP 22

>>>1 of 5 dropped out of 2nd round:

R.Johnson ADP 54



2007 ADP

1. A.Pujols(2005,2006)

2. J.Reyes(2006)

3. A.Soriano(2005)

4. A.Rodriguez(2005,2006)

5. C.Crawford(2005,2006)

6. R.Howard

7. C.Utley

8. J.Santana(2005,2006)

9. C.Beltran(2005)

10. D.Ortiz(2005,2006)

11. M.Cabrera(2005,2006)

12. V.Guerrero(2005,2006)

13. D.Wright(2006)

14. L.Berkman

15. G.Sizemore

>>6 players in 2007 Top 15 that were not in 2006 Top 15

>>2 of 6 returned from 2005(Soriano, Beltran)

>>4 of 6 were first timers (Howard, Utley, Berkman, Sizemore)

>>>5 of 6 dropping out of Top 15 stayed in 2nd round:

M.Teixeira ADP 18

D.Lee ADP 23

M.Ramirez ADP 25

J.Bay ADP 26

B.Abreu ADP 28

>>1 of 6 dropped out of 2nd round

C.Figgins ADP 38



2008 ADP

1. A.Rodriguez(2005,2006,2007)

2. D.Wright(2006,2007)

3. H.Ramirez

4. J.Reyes(2006,2007)

5. M.Holliday

6. J.Rollins

7. M.Cabrera(2005,2006,2007)

8. C.Utley(2007)

9. R.Braun

10. C.Crawford(2005,2006,2007)

11. R.Howard(2007)

12. P.Fielder

13. J.Santana(2005,2006,2007)

14. G.Sizemore(2007)

15. A.Pujols(2005,2006,2007)

>>5 players in 2008 Top 15 that were not in 2007 Top 15

>>All 5 were first timers (Hanley,Holliday,Rollins,Braun,Fielder)

>>>All 5 dropping out of Top 15 stayed in 2nd round:

A.Soriano ADP 17

D.Ortiz ADP 19

V.Guerrero ADP 22

C.Beltran ADP 25

L.Berkman ADP 26



2009 ADP

1. H.Ramirez (2008)

2. J.Reyes (2006,2007,2008)

3. A.Pujols (2005,2006,2007,2008)

4. D.Wright (2006,2007,2008)

5. M.Cabrera (2005,2006,2007,2008)

6. G.Sizemore(2007,2008)

7. R.Braun(2008)

8. J.Rollins(2008)

9. I.Kinsler

10. R.Howard(2007,2008)

11. M.Teixeira(2005,2006)

12. J.Hamilton

13. C.Utley(2007,2008)

14. C.Beltran(2005,2007)

15. L.Berkman(2007)

>>5 players in 2009 Top 15 that were not in 2008 Top 15

>>3 of 5 returned from a prior year(Teixeira2006, Beltran2005/2007, Berkman2007)

>>2 of 5 were first timers (Kinsler, Hamilton)

>>>All 5 dropping out of Top 15 stayed in 2nd round:

C.Crawford ADP 17

M.Holliday ADP 21

A.Rodriguez ADP 24

J.Santana ADP 26

P.Fielder ADP 27

Two big things stand out here:



1) The consistency of the top players is astounding. Over the last 5 years, either 14 or 15 of the prior year's Top 15 are taken in either the 1st or 2nd round the following year.



2) Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are the only two players to have a 1st round ADP for the last 5 years. These two are as safe as they come.

Thanks for the data - good stuff.

Love Miguel but i got real issues with that lineup. If nobody is pitching to Adrian Gonzalez, why on earth would you pitch to Miggy? The Detroit lineup is full of old men and young guys who arent ready yet. Plus you got him dealing with all sorts of personal stuff from the year before. I can see if he struggles to start the season the fans getting on him... that could lead his immaturity poking its head out again.



I can see the .320 avg again, but we wont see 100 runs and i think he'll struggle to drive in 100. Homers will probably be down as well. Maybe he runs a bit more with all the walks.

A few years ago(2006) everyone said Miggy would have a down year due to the new woeful Marlins lineup.Meanwhile Miggy stole bases in april hanley and Uggla came through and Miggy had his standard big year.