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It is time for my once a year rant about fantasy terms.

In the past, I have railed about SLEEPERS. I have seen Jason Heyward and Johan Santana touted as sleepers this year :rolleyes: C'mon man!

Heyward is only a 'p' short of having hype in his name. Santana has been the number one or two pitcher off the Board the last five years.



FREE AGENTS, these guys are not free for us, only unto themselves. They are unemployed and we are bidding against other employers to utilize their services. They are the only players we spend "money" on and never free.



PROJECTIONS, every magazine does them, every player shouldn't. Sufficith to say, if a player has been consistent, no matter the numbers, the magazine will project the same numbers. On the rise, a higher projection; on the decline, a lower projection.

I met a guy at the draft in Las Vegas a couple of years ago, showed me projections for his team for the year. I told him to rip the paper in half and project. Half those players won't be on his team at years end. Futile.



Here is my favorite pet peeve this year........VALUE

We've all used it. Like using cuss words in high school or the word "man" at the end of the sentence, it's cool.

Brad Hawpe went in the 15th round of a recent slo draft of mine. "That is great VALUE" "Best VALUE of the draft" went the chatboard. What a load. Hawpe was not of VALUE in the 14th round by 15 drafters and now becomes the best VALUE of the draft a round later? I've got to be missing something.



Using Hawpe as an example, how is his value measured? We do not know the results of the upcoming season so how can Hawpe's pick be of any more VALUE than, say, Will Venable in the 25th round?



As of now their VALUE is unknown. So lets compare Hawpe's draft position to his adp in recent drafts. It seems the Hawpe drafter did get a bargain when comparing adp's of other drafts, the VALUE, however, remains the same.



Instead of VALUE picks when comparing adp's, I'll use the term overpicked/underpicked. Hawpe was simply underpicked by others in the draft, while in the same draft Andrew McCutchen may have been overpicked at 4.2 when comparing adp's......We'll see in September who got more VALUE.



[ February 08, 2010, 01:39 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

you're making strides, man. no shots at the royals:)

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

you're making strides, man. no shots at the royals:) Trust me, it was tough letting the Ankiel signing be

"There is no such thing as a value" ... you seem to be promoting efficient market hypothesis here Professor Dough.



And your new overpicked/underpicked terminology reminds me of when all the big brokers moved away from Buy and Hold and went with Overweight and Underweight.



Are these groups you're comfortable being slotted into ???

Nah, just makes sense.



Furcal was Shandler's fourth shortstop going into last year's drafts. I don't know what his adp was for us, but somebody drafted him in the eighth round of a draft last year and was told he got "Crazy VALUE". That VALUE turned out to be a drag in every category while waiting for some kind of real VALUE all year.



Instead of VALUE, maybe the 15 drafters are correct in their original assessments of holding off drafting a guy like Furcal last year.



In effect, we're playing hot potato with Furcal, but whoever ends up with Furcal is complimented for a VALUE pick, instead of being the loser who ended up with the dud, eh, spud.



[ February 09, 2010, 10:41 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

"Projection" simply requires fewer syllables than "expected value".



While reasoned determination of a range for expected value for ballplayers is a lot like valuing stocks, especially in that at best you're going to hit more often than miss and some of the failures are going to be spectacular, it still beats the hell out of throwing darts.



Most years.