ADP - SIXTH Round

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Feb 08, 2010 11:13 pm

76 Jonathan Papelbon

77 Mariano Rivera

78 Javier Vazquez

79 Jake Peavy

80 Tommy Hanson

81 Billy Butler

82 Gordon Beckham

83 Matt Wieters

84 Josh Johnson

85 Josh Beckett

86 Chone Figgins

87 Michael Bourn

88 Carlos Pena

89 Yovani Gallardo

90 Jose Lopez

LIKE:

Beckett is getting drafted AFTER unproven (Hanson) and injury-prone (Peavy) pitchers. Looking at Beckett's history of work, I gotta believe his adp is FIFTH round come March.

DISLIKE:

Billy Butler is good. However that sound you here is his profit being squashed to death by being a mid 6th round pick. He will never steal bases and plays on a crummy team. 7th or better yet, 8th round is the place to take Butler if you want profit potential.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 1:43 am

Likes Johnson think he is best pitcher in this round.

Dislikes Peavy bust based on injury history and hitter friendly park

Just an opinion

Marty

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 4:24 am

Disagree on Butler - this guy is a STUD - waiting to happen - if just a handful of the 50 doubles (yes 50!) clear the fence this year he will more than justify this draft slot. I wouldn't be surprised if a solid spring vaults him over Berkman and D Lee. He's a step away from being Justin Morneau without the bad back. The BA alone will mean that he will make a nice target at this point for anyone who doesn't grab a 1st baseman in the first three rounds. If you are one of those teams - Butler's name is going to be pretty hard to pass up in the 6th rd IMO.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 4:29 am

Gallardo is the guy I dislike on this list - while I think he'll have a good season - I'm not buying that he's going to take a big enough step forward to reach the level of the other SP's in this round. Huge innings spike raises red flag of second half swoon in my mind. I think he'll be good - there's just a handful of guys I think will take a bigger step forward this year than him.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 4:59 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Disagree on Butler - this guy is a STUD - waiting to happen - if just a handful of the 50 doubles (yes 50!) clear the fence this year he will more than justify this draft slot. I wouldn't be surprised if a solid spring vaults him over Berkman and D Lee. He's a step away from being Justin Morneau without the bad back. The BA alone will mean that he will make a nice target at this point for anyone who doesn't grab a 1st baseman in the first three rounds. If you are one of those teams - Butler's name is going to be pretty hard to pass up in the 6th rd IMO. .301/78/21/93/1

.281/73/13/90/7

Instead of being in Morneau's company, he could also be in the company whose adp is five rounds in back of Butler.

The first set of numbers are Butler's, the second, James Loney.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 5:14 am

James Loney is two years older and two feet taller, and for a guy that big, he carries a wooden match. Aside from September of 2007 when he cast THAT mirage with 9 home runs to open the eyes of myself and other QUAD-S'ers (small samlple size suckers) he's gone FOUR years only hitting more than three home runs in a given month ONE TIME. (He hit 4).

Butler and his 4, 4, 6 HR's in JUL, AUG, SEP of last season looks more like a trend than a mirage. Add in his solid batting average and reasonable growth for a stocky 24 year old who's figuring the majors out, and who hits 3rd vs. 5th in the meat of the order, and he seems like a safe bet.

[ February 09, 2010, 11:47 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 5:31 am

Hire me to write the player capsules in your 2011 magazine, "E"...I'll fill it with nonsensical babble like the above.

Maybe the target audience of teenagers and college kids will "dig" it.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 5:39 am

Body builds mean little. If you can hit, you can hit. Derrek Lee has a similar build to Loney. Butler has a similar build to Ryan Garko, meaningless.

Loney has looked more like Lyle Overbay though, in regards to power. In fact, Overbay has had more home runs than Loney in both, 2008 and 2009.

MadCow Sez · Post by **MadCow Sez** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:10 am

I think "stocky" is the second most abused word n these forums next to "value"

Hector Villanueva...."stocky"

John Kruk...."stocky"

Tony Gwynn...."stocky"

Kirby Puckett...."stocky

CC Sabathia....blocks out the sun

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:37 am

wow- give me stocky. loney looney ,whatever. guy is on a list of players that many guys love. the problem - for me- is the guys on that list hit too many ground balls. one thing about butler- those doubles weren't the same kind of doubles guys like crawford hit. butler could hit 40 homers and have 45 rbis.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:37 am

Originally posted by MadCow Sez:

I think "stocky" is the second most abused word n these forums next to "value"

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:39 am

We need a doubles tracker....

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 6:46 am

So what do you think Dan? I say he'll be a stud. You're kind of pulling a Gekko here

with the statline comparison. By the way I think Loney isn't a bad fallback player either - but look deeper and it's plain to see that Loney doesn't have anywhere near the power upside that Butler does. They both carry similar LD/GB/FB splits - but Butler just hits the ball harder and farther.

Butler - 51 doubles

Loney - 25 doubles

Butler - 11.9 HR/FB rate

Loney - 7.3 HR/FB rate

I know many on this board don't really love it when we talk too much about players - but you've got to respond to blah talk like Gekko's take on Butler. We talking ADP here after all - so why bring profit into the equation? It's not an auction list after all. Butler will have 6th round "value" to someone at the draft table.

Here's a little trivia question for you - name the only players to have a 20 HR -50 Double season before the age of 24???

[ February 09, 2010, 01:05 PM: Message edited by: Ryan Carey ]

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 7:06 am

dan is being honest - as always. you can use stats to confirm your bias. loney hr/fb as a 23 year old (2007)= 13.9% butlers last year as a 23 year old = 11.9%. both heavy ground ball hitters, in pitchers parks. loney has the better lineup. butler in a a better hitting park and division- so that should help. kinda boils down to who you believe in. many more believe in butler.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 7:11 am

Hey - I respect Dan a lot - but the comparison suggests Butler might hit only 13 HR's??

Does anyone believe a healthy Butler does that.

[ February 09, 2010, 01:13 PM: Message edited by: Ryan Carey ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 7:26 am

Opening day Royals lineup 2009...

C. Crisp cf 5 0 1 0 0 1 1 .200

D. DeJesus lf 5 0 1 0 0 1 2 .200

M. Teahen 2b 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 .333

J. Guillen rf 4 1 1 0 1 0 3 .250

M. Jacobs 1b 3 0 0 0 0 1 4 .000

B. Butler dh 4 0 0 0 0 1 3 .000

A. Gordon 3b 4 1 1 2 0 0 1 .250

M. Olivo c 4 0 2 0 0 2 2 .500

M. Aviles ss

2010 team...

Catcher

Jason Kendall

First Base

Billy Butler

Second Base

Chris Getz

Alberto Callaspo

Shortstop

Mike Aviles

Yuniesky Betancourt

Third Base

Josh Fields

Left Field

Scott Podsednik

Mitch Maier

Center Field

Rick Ankiel

Brian Anderson

Right Field

David DeJesús

Willie Bloomquist

Designated Hitter

José Guillén

Alex Gordon

YIKES!!!

(They may have gotten owrse!???)

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 8:59 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Here's a little trivia question for you - name the only players to have a 20 HR -50 Double season before the age of 24??? i like to look at AB/XBH, but using your way (removing the age requirement), here are some hitters that hit 50+ doubles along with their HR total:

Lastname Firstname 2B HR

Roberts Brian 50 4

Sanchez Freddy 53 6

Roberts Brian 51 9

Young Michael 52 14

Gonzalez Luis 52 15

Overbay Lyle 54 16

Roberts Brian 56 16

Pedroia Dustin 54 17

Abreu Bobby 50 20

Butler Billy 51 21

Garciaparra Nomar 56 24

Butler plays on a crap team, he hits WAY to many grounders, and his home stadium is a pitcher's park.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:01 am

Asdrubal Cabrera hit 42 doubles last year (while missing a chunk of the season to injury). are you counting on him hitting 20+ hr this year

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:09 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Hey - I respect Dan a lot - but the comparison suggests Butler might hit only 13 HR's??

Does anyone believe a healthy Butler does that. The comparison does not suggest that Butler will hit 13 home runs.

It was like we were playing six degrees to Kevin Bacon with Butler getting to Morneau.

I wanted to illustrate that a guy adp'ing in the 11th round had similar numbers to Butler and that Butler may be closer to Loney than to Morneau.

Butler hit higher in the lineup than Loney in 2009, yet only had three more rbi and that was with eight more homers.

I'm not suggesting I would take Loney before Butler. I feel his sixth round adp is justified, any higher, we'd be paying too much.

Ali-Frasier....The ultimate tall vs stocky matchup

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:14 am

I would like to string up the guy who suggested doubles turn into home runs. Why? How?

I would rather have a guy who went warning track 20 times and have him traded to a park with a 10 foot shorter fence.

Doubles come in so many different varieties, it is just not fair to equate them with power.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:20 am

Well - at least we had a robust debate here.

Oh yeah here's the answer to the question:

Hank Greenberg

Albert Pujols

Alex Rodriguez

Miguel Cabrera

and

Billy Butler

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:25 am

Butler could hit .320 with 35 HRs and likely still not get 100 Runs or RBI... that's how bad his team is... and what if he DOESN'T perform like that? I'll pass... at least that early.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:36 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Well - at least we had a robust debate here.

Oh yeah here's the answer to the question:

Hank Greenberg

Albert Pujols

Alex Rodriguez

Miguel Cabrera

and

Billy Butler ryan, go by AB/Double and you will get different results. using doubles to predict a breakout has it's limitations.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:37 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

So what do you think Dan? I say he'll be a stud. You're kind of pulling a Gekko here

with the statline comparison. By the way I think Loney isn't a bad fallback player either - but look deeper and it's plain to see that Loney doesn't have anywhere near the power upside that Butler does. They both carry similar LD/GB/FB splits - but Butler just hits the ball harder and farther.

Butler - 51 doubles

Loney - 25 doubles

Butler - 11.9 HR/FB rate

Loney - 7.3 HR/FB rate

I know many on this board don't really love it when we talk too much about players - but you've got to respond to blah talk like Gekko's take on Butler. We talking ADP here after all - so why bring profit into the equation? It's not an auction list after all. Butler will have 6th round "value" to someone at the draft table.

Here's a little trivia question for you - name the only players to have a 20 HR -50 Double season before the age of 24??? Sorry Ryan, I missed this and already saw your answer....good question.

As for Butler, I'm not as enthralled as you. Fearing the wrath of Bryan

, Butler is going to play on a very bad team and may see some intentional walks this year that he didn't last year. That also means being pitched around a little bit.

I don't call Butler a power hitter. He doesen't hit long home runs for the most part. He does make great contact and hits to all fields well. Similar to Nick Markakis, only from the other side. Not a bad thing.

The biggest problem will be tearing your hair out when he comes up with nobody on, and watching him get walked or pitched around with runners in scoring position.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Tue Feb 09, 2010 9:44 am

"Fearing the wrath of Bryan

"

I appreciate that Dough:P