$$Gekko Saturday Chat$$

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:39 am

Wife and kids just left to visit family. I am staying in the war room to complete, yes complete, my first round of projections. I'm half way through my pitchers right now. Already have hitters done.

Man, I wish I had my pitcher projections done a month ago. Would have helped me out in those slow drafts. Right now, I can say I've found 5-10 "backend" pitchers that I reall like AND THEY ARE GOING IN THE 20'S AND SLIPPING INTO THE 30'S.

I won't mention names, but the noose around all of your necks this year is getting tighter. Your "margin of error" when competing against me is getting smaller and smaller. Those "sharks" signd up to draft in AC are in for a rude awakening that first NFBC weekend.

Anyways, I know it's short notice, but I will be doing "baseball activities" ALL DAY and NIGHT. If anyone has any questions, feel free to post and I'll do my best to answer.

And if you can't post, I understand, you are probably out buying a..

[ February 13, 2010, 08:40 AM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:57 am

FYI - I heard one of my sleepers last year (and yes I drafted him in the main) and semi-sleepers this year, Asdrubal Cabrera, has been STORMING UP DRAFT BOARDS. Taken in the 5th in one draft. 7th in another. I can assure you, I have his projections higher than most, but I wouldn't touch him in the 5th. Probably not 7th either. More like 8th or 9th he becomes a consideration.

The RoundTrippers · Post by **The RoundTrippers** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:11 am

how do your rankings relect the recent news on phillip hughes???

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:27 am

Originally posted by The RoundTrippers:

how do your rankings relect the recent news on phillip hughes??? I feel that Hughes should be the starter and Joba in the pen. What the Yanks feel is a different matter. One thing I won't do is project Hughes for anything over 150 innings this year. What did he have last year, 90 - 100?

Hughes is a BUY where he is being drafted right now, 18th round. Lots of profit to be scooped up that low. However, if he's named the #5 starter, I expect him to jump to 14th or 15th pretty quickly. Just remember with an innings cap, he will have to be skipped in the rotation a # of times.

rockitsauce · Post by **rockitsauce** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:36 am

based on where they'll likely be drafted, who are you're fav options for speed?

ellsbury/reyes/bourn/mccutchen/morgan/davis/pierre/fowler/pods

I was impressed watching Fowler last yr, and think he could be the best of the bunch.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:37 am

Do you feel Cole Hamels is a huge value at his current 7th round ADP?

Do you feel Ron Shandler is pretty much dead on in all his projections?

Do you feel you should have beat out Lindy last year if it wasn't for the extreme bad luck faced by Joe Blanton the first half of the season?

.....and most importantly do you feel fantasy football is more luck than skill?

Damage Inc · Post by **Damage Inc** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:45 am

You have the 15th pick and David Wright is staring you in the face. Do you take him?!?!?!?

If you do have the 15th pick, what 2 picks do you see yourself taking?

What I'm really asking is: Did I eff up by taking Kinsler and Wright in my draft?

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:48 am

Assuming Damon signs with Tigers, do you envision him as leadoff hitter? What are his projections? What round is his value?

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:49 am

Originally posted by rockitsauce:

based on where they'll likely be drafted, who are you're fav options for speed?

ellsbury/reyes/bourn/mccutchen/morgan/davis/pierre/fowler/pods

I was impressed watching Fowler last yr, and think he could be the best of the bunch. "based on where they'll likely be drafted" is a bit tricky to judge for some of these guys. say like mccutchen. i drafted him in the middle/end of the 6th round in an earlier slow draft this year. if he's moving up to fifth round, he starts to lose his "shine".

i like fowler and bid big money on him last year. if i am assured he is getting fulltime atbats this year, his recent adp of 14th - 16th round looks most enticing. i gotta believe his power will come in colorado as well.

anyways, to rank your list:

1. ellsbury (fully deserves his ranking and IS a first round pick if he steals 65-70 this year)

2. Fowler (assuming fulltime gig)

3. reyes (assuming he looks fully healthy in spring)

4. mccutchen (assuming you can get him at a reasonable spot)

the other players are judy's (no hr). they do have value, but you better be sure to have a plan in place to roster an OF with sub 5 homers.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:52 am

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

Do you feel Cole Hamels is a huge value at his current 7th round ADP?

phillies are the next pitching staff i need to "project" today. going alphabetically.

but i can tell you right off the bat, he is NOT HUGE value in the 7th. People think I'm kidding, but I will pass on him every time there (unless I'm drunk)

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:55 am

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

Do you feel Ron Shandler is pretty much dead on in all his projections?

i like shandler's fundamentals. however, I DO NOT LIKE his estimated playing time "people". u know, the guys who assign playing time. they are much more reactive than proactive in that regard.

also, they try too much "cute" stuff. saying mikey jacobs batting avg was going to increase in his move to KC partly because the pitching mound is higher in florida :rolleyes:

Damage Inc · Post by **Damage Inc** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:00 am

Who will you take greater pride in beating this year? Childs, Jupinka or Shandler?

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:00 am

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

Do you feel you should have beat out Lindy last year if it wasn't for the extreme bad luck faced by Joe Blanton the first half of the season?

No. I drafted too much dead weight (Iannetta, C.Gomez, Milledge, Dukes, Lyon, Sean Marshall, Smoltz, Arredondo, Owings, Saito, and Jensen Lewis).

11 of my 30 picks were pretty bad

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:02 am

Originally posted by Damage Inc:

Who will you take greater pride in beating this year? Childs, Jupinka or Shandler? i just want MY money. Ya, it's mine this year. The Road to the 100K Goes Through Gekkoville!

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:02 am

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

.....and most importantly do you feel fantasy football is more luck than skill?

where would you get that idea

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:03 am

mark

after chase utley, how do you have the next four/five 2B? and can ben zobrist repeat or improve on last year?

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:05 am

Originally posted by Damage Inc:

You have the 15th pick and David Wright is staring you in the face. Do you take him?!?!?!?

If you do have the 15th pick, what 2 picks do you see yourself taking?

What I'm really asking is: Did I eff up by taking Kinsler and Wright in my draft? with the news that the mets lowered their fences a bit, i DID bump up wright's hrs a couple.

ya, i'd take him at or around 15. same for kinsler (probably 17 or 18, but it doesn't matter if you have the correct game plan). i like your start actually. good job

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:08 am

Originally posted by Schwks:

Assuming Damon signs with Tigers, do you envision him as leadoff hitter? What are his projections? What round is his value? IF he signs, ya, i expect leadoff. i'd chop his hr's down. maybe low teens. same for speed. old guys don't get faster.

adp-wise, he's currently going around 13-15. he was 11th round, but recently uncertainity has moved him down.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:10 am

Originally posted by Damage Inc:

Who will you take greater pride in beating this year? Childs, Jupinka or Shandler? now if you asked me whose league would i want to be in, i'd say Shandler. first for bragging rights. second, he's probably the worst of the three owners mentioned.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:17 am

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

mark

after chase utley, how do you have the next four/five 2B? and can ben zobrist repeat or improve on last year? this type of question i get asked frequently. what are your rankings?

my rankings change depending on what players i have already acquired. i could give you my top 5 right now, but that wouldn't do it justice.

how i look at positions is "okay what do i need to get out of my 2b to make my plan work?" sometimes it's hr, sometimes speed, sometimes a mixed bag. pick the player that "plays his part". don't worry about where you have him ranked.

Damage Inc · Post by **Damage Inc** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:19 am

How long are you planning on waiting before taking your 1st SP? (Assuming that the SP's are going close to their ADP and there isn't a major slip)...

And...

What are your thoughts on Geovany Soto and Russel Martin this year?

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:21 am

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

can ben zobrist repeat or improve on last year? i like him more in a slow draft format as with rosters frozen, dual position elgibility comes in handy. zobrist is a legit 20hr/12sb guy with a .280 avg. he could do better, but i need to see where he hits in the lineup. early indications are 5th or 6th. less AB means less counting stats.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:25 am

what's the "rule o thumb" for AB lost as you go down the batting order?

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:26 am

Originally posted by Damage Inc:

How long are you planning on waiting before taking your 1st SP? (Assuming that the SP's are going close to their ADP and there isn't a major slip)...i don't know, there's some mighty fine SP slipping in recent drafts (Carpenter in the 7th to name one), and i just uncovered some TOP PLAYS at backend pitching i can get in the 20-30 rounds.

last year in the main, i went

4 SP

5 SP

6 RP

13 SP

15 RP

this year, i want to fit in one more SP in the first 15 rounds.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 4:26 am

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

what's the "rule o thumb" for AB lost as you go down the batting order? case by case basis. depends what team you play on.