Determining a draft day plan.

LBG1973 · Post by **LBG1973** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:35 am

Now we all have some sort of plan going into draft day as to who should be drafted when. I am curious to find out what people think about drafting a pitcher with an early round selection. I have seen it burn owner after owner in past years but I would like to hear everyones opinion on the subject.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:27 am

For argument sake, let's say I had definitive proof based on years of tracking drafts versus results on whether it's beneficial to draft a pitcher early or not.

Why in heck would I share that with people I'm playing against?

LBG1973 · Post by **LBG1973** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 5:25 am

I happen to believe that drafting a pitcher early is not a bright idea but I was just curious as to what others were thinking. And honestly I dont think this question will change the outcome of the NFBC regardless of anyones reply. I'm simply not that powerful!

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:19 am

well this is a very common point of all fantasy advice columns so I am not sure why anyone would worry about chatting about it.

The standard rule is take hitters over pitchers because they are more reliable.

The counter argument that I have is that pitchers by definition are a bigger % of your points. What I mean is that you have 9 active pitchers and 14 active hitters right? Therefore each pitcher is 11% of your total pitching points, while each hitter is only 7% of your total hitting points.

Since hitting and pitching points are weighted equally (50 from each), it means that a great pitcher will have a bigger impact on your points than a great hitter. One slight fallacy of this arguement is that a hitter can be 5 category, while most pitchers can only be 4 (though I remember having a closer get 9 wins...)

What does this all mean? It means to me, that the fantastic, rock steady pitchers are more valuable than fantastic, rock steady hitters, and therefore worth drafting high. However, I personally eschew middle round pitching as the risks outweigh the benefits...

Who agrees / disagrees?

Regards,

Spyhunter aka Chris Throop

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:22 am

Actually, I should add a slight change to my point above:

Take 5 tool rockstar hitters first over even great pitching, then great pitching, then 4 tool hitters...

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:27 am

Pick the right pitcher in the first round its a good pick. Pick the right numbers in the lotto its a mute point. Well probably not. I'd still do this one.

Plymouth · Post by **Plymouth** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:33 am

I took Prior with my first pick last year and it rewaded me with last place! He didn't get me there by himself but he contributed greatly, add in a number of other injuries along with some bad FA decisions and you find yourself in a hole you can't get out of.

sandckaye · Post by **sandckaye** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:40 am

As ant long time fantasy player will tell you its not your first pk that wins or loses your league so it really doesnt matter

Stan

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:01 am

Another factor to weigh when planning your pitching versus hitting strategy is year after year, more pitching help emerges from the free agent ranks than hitting help.

In addition, it is easier to "manage" pitching using our 7-man reserve, playing the match-up and 2-start/week game to get the better stats out of our starters.

These two actually outweigh the risk factor for me and are the reasons I prefer to stock up on the sticks early.

LBG1973 · Post by **LBG1973** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:51 am

Todd

I just wanted to see what some actual fantasy players thought about the idea. I know there are plenty of articles etc. to read but I would rather here it from guys who are actually playing in a fantasy league over a bunch of journalists who have their opinions and dont play.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 7:55 am

Todd

I just wanted to see what some actual fantasy players thought about the idea. I know there are plenty of articles etc. to read but I would rather here it from guys who are actually playing in a fantasy league over a bunch of journalists who have their opinions and dont play.

You must have me mistaken for a journalist who doesn't play. Think of me more as a player who happens to also write.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 8:00 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Another factor to weigh when planning your pitching versus hitting strategy is year after year, more pitching help emerges from the free agent ranks than hitting help.

In addition, it is easier to "manage" pitching using our 7-man reserve, playing the match-up and 2-start/week game to get the better stats out of our starters.

todd, can you list your top 10 SP? thanks.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 10:10 am

In general, in the 17 years I have participated in leagues with various skill levels (from frat level to leagues dominated with people in the sports reporting media), I have been very heavy hitting up front, pitching in the middle, and fill-in/prospects/gambles late. No big surprise as this is a fairly common strategy. My reasoning has been after the big four or five SP, the "Tier 2" pitchers pool is deep and wide. Closers are a little deeper too and seem to have a decent percentage of "new blood" gambles that pay off. I may not win outright many pitching categories, but I am usually top tier in Wins, Saves. I will usually be middle of the pack to a little higer in K's and middle of the pack for ERA and WHIP (unless I get lucky).

It has been my experience that more pitchers from the middle rounds can come in above the average for the 135 that will be starting on any roster than can hitters from the middle rounds crack the top half of the 210 needed for a starting roster.

viper · Post by **viper** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 10:43 am

Last season just about every strategy for the 1st three picks worked. As I recall, one team that drafted Mark Prior at the #8 pick won. I would suggest that the NFBC is a horse of an odd color. No trades, 15 teams per peague and 30 man rosters with a FAAB system for pickups present it's own set of problems and forces some changes in your normal draft strategies.

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 11:38 am

hi todd, I just signed up for masterball, I can't wait to get my id and see your site data

Slugger1918 · Post by **Slugger1918** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 11:54 am

LBG1973 -

Do you think people actually just write about it and not play?

And someone correct me if I am wrong, but didn't Todd finish in the money in the Vegas $1,250 auction league last year?

Just because someone writes about the game doesn't mean he's a player as well and can have valid opinions?

Listen I'm not sure if I agree with Todd's point or not, but I do know that cashing an NFBC check last year as I'm pretty sure he did, qualifies him as a "player." What would your definition be?

All I know is I appreciate Todd's contributions here (especially the draft data crunching), even if I don't always agree with him, and that your comment was completly ignorant.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:14 pm

Yes Todd came in third in the AL auction in Las Vegas. Yes Todd is a great player. I'd like Todd alot more if he wasn't so good.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:20 pm

Yeah, I took third in the AL Vegas auction and am looking forward to improving that this time around. Looks like many of the 2004 participants are returning and it should be a great league again.

My main event team struggled but I don't plan on letting that happen again.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:08 pm

Do you think people actually just write about it and not play?

I write as well so I can empathize with those of you who were offended, but I think the point was more that just because someone writes, it doesn't automatically make them an expert, which after reading some of the ridiculous stuff that comes out, we can probably all agree with.

LBG1973 · Post by **LBG1973** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:20 pm

That is exactly what I meant, just because one writes doesnt make one an expert.

Now that being said I am new here and I didnt even know Todd was a writer so I was ignorant in that regard but I really dont think the statement was that over the top, was it?

I was just curious as to what the masses thought about drafting pitchers, nothing more nothing less. Sorry if I offended anyone with my ignorance as someone put it!

LBG1973 · Post by **LBG1973** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:29 pm

Looking back at what has been said regarding this topic I really cannot believe the way things were totally taken the wrong way.

I am new to this format and was just curious about how everyone saw the pitcher issue. I wasnt asking for anyones top 10 SP's as I think Gekko posted I simply wanted opinions from players who have played in this format before.

So Todd I didnt mean to offend you or take a shot at you for being a writer if you thought that is what I was doing.

[ February 04, 2005, 07:30 PM: Message edited by: LBG1973 ]

sandckaye · Post by **sandckaye** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:39 pm

LBG Your question was far from dumb. Anyone can augue on either side. A good example is I had the 3rd overall pk last yr in Chicago league #2 and took Pedro Martinez. I got hit hard on message board by not taking Pujols. I won the league. That is why I said in eairlier post its not the first rd pk that wins or loses.

Stan

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:39 pm

Determining a draft day plan? try a plan that maximizes your chances for 2nd place.

Fantasy Sheep & Experts...I am coming to take your money. baa-baa...baa-baa

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:48 pm

[ February 04, 2005, 07:52 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:05 pm

Gordon is giving you better advice than he knows. If you had a plan to get second place in every category, you would surely win!

[ February 04, 2005, 10:05 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]