NFBC Auction Championship

[Edwards Kings]

I haven’t done an auction before with the NFBC and I haven’t done a mixed auction in years, so I wasn’t sure how the event would flow. My strategy in auctions has always tended more towards the balanced approach versus the stars and scrubs-type of approach. In prep, I valued the talent at each position (especially in auctions, I do not break down as SS/2B/3B/1B, but rather in more general MI, CM, C, OF, SP, and RP). I knew several players would go much higher, but I targeted for me not to spend more than $30 on any offensive player and no more than $15 on any pitcher. If that worked, I am almost assured not to be in $1 land too soon and allow another team to steal a $10 player for $2 or $3. I wanted to be that thief. I also did not want to close myself out of any position too soon. In other words, I didn’t want the auction to pass me by for want of resources or slots. I also wanted to load up on LH or switch-hitting batters. Left-handed starters would be nice, too.



To that end, I budgeted my CM1, CM2 and CM3 positions (deepest in value in my opinion) at $30/$15/$5 respectively. I did not write down every value on players chosen (I see no value as either I have the player or I don’t…values will be posted later by the NFBC anyway), but a lot of CM stars were going early for big bucks. Many of the players I would have loved to have, but I was sitting on either Joey Votto or Kevin Youkilis for that spot. Seemingly too soon, we were down to basically those two left in what I think were the upper crust. I stayed in the bidding on Votto, but someone bid $30, so I had to decide to break budget or not. I bid $31, but $32 was bid. I decided to go $33 and was dropping if something else was called and take my chances with Youk. I got Votto and his LH power bat hitting third for Cincy in that bandbox for $33, but I would have to make up budget somewhere else. My second CM ended up being Adrian Beltre, which was a surprise as I had his sorry butt last year. I bid up to $14 and was praying someone would go $15, to no avail. I had targeting Kevin Kouzmanoff as my CM3, rationalizing that ANYWHERE is better than Petco for a hitter. I ended up spending $6, so for the position, I am over budget by $3, which ain’t too bad. I picked up Scott Rolen as my second pick in the reserve round and I think he is not bad for insurance. He may even end up my UT player as he still has at least league average power and could hit 20 HR.



I did not have MI as being nearly as valuable or deep as CM, so I budgeted $25/$10/$5 for MI1, MI2, and MI3 positions respectively. I really thought I could get a Top 5 MI for $25 and almost did. I have Brandon Phillips ranked just behind Ramirez, Utley and Rollins. I brought the bidding up to $25, was out bid, so had a similar situation to that with Votto. I did go $27 and won his 20/20 or 25/25 balance. Now I am over $2 and collectively $5 with my top MI and CM. I am pretty high on Kelly Johnson this year, and not just because he is a former Brave. I do not think anyone on the Diamondbacks roster (and certainly not Ryan Roberts) will challenge Johnson much for AB. And he is LH. I am not as high on him as Shandler, but his potential for above league average power will allow me to ride out his cold spells. I got him right on what I had as his value of $10. As far as MI goes, then I went to sleep. I had one or two players targeted for the eventual end game and I was waiting until then to pick up my last MI. By the time these came up, I had enough money left that I was sure I would only be outbid by a fanatic. As it was, I bid $1 on Luis Valbuena, but eventually had to pay $3 for him. Not a bad price for an investment in a young MI player who could show league average power. Problem is both Johnson and Valbuena are, at least in the early going, batting way down in the line-up. Not so good but serviceable if they can move up a bit. My back up is a declining Edgar Renteria. Could he have a resurgent year? Yes. Turning 35 hitting in SF half of the time will he hit 10 HR or steal 10 bases again? No. Resurgent will be if he can hit .280 again. I hope I do not have to rely on him much.



It has not been my practice to overly invest in catchers since the days of Mike Piazza in his prime. I budgeted $10 and $5 for my two in this auction. I hoped to get a Kurt Suzuki or Geovany Soto for that price. No such luck and as it turned out, I wish I would have spent extra. As it was, I can only say about my catchers that I was able to stay in budget. I got AJ Pierzynski for $10 and Miguel Olivo for $5. I do not like either for that price. AJ will get 500 AB and not kill me in BA. Miguel may win the job out right and continue to show power, but BA is not there. This certainly is not the strongest staff.



OF is where you can really fall into the overpayment trap. I only wanted to pay $25 each for my top two OF (and no more than $20 total for the remaining three). I bailed out on Jacoby Ellsbury after I crossed the $25 line, but if memory serves (I certainly did this with one player and it may have been this one) I jumped back in at $30 as that was on-value to me. I won the bid and with Phillips, (and Beltre and Johnson to a certain extent), have a decent speed core. I wish I had not stopped there with regard to speed.



I must have a man-crush on Andre Either as I have him in all three of my leagues. Here I got him for $24, which I think is awesome. Another big LH bat. With the release of Elijah Dukes from the Nationals, Josh Willingham becomes more of a target for me. He becomes much more likely to get 525+ AB if not 550+ AB. He carries a bigger stick than his last couple of years of results have shown with good GB/LD/FB ratios and if he can up his contact rate even a point or two, he should bat closer to .275 than the .260 we have seen recently. Even without the BA uptick, the increased AB will make him a good bet to exceed last years counting stats. Having not overspent on other players meant I could get him for $7, which I feel is very decent value for his stats in a #3 OFer. Another player with a full time gig who isn’t getting any love is Marlon Byrd. While Wrigley is not Arlington and he hits a few too many ground balls for my liking, I think he is a lock to get 550 AB this year for the first time in his career. He makes decent contact, so I think he can keep his BA up. The Cubbies are planning on batting him as high as fifth this year and Soriano may be hitting behind him, so the $2 I spent on him (again, having that extra dollar helps) makes him a very good investment.



Last comes “Mr. I Won’t Hurt You” David DeJesus. I would rather him not lead off as his RBI’s, such that they are, suffer but he did do better hitting out of that slot than any other last year. I spent $2 on him and he is LH. Cheap and a decent (80/10/80/.280/5) proven producer. My kinda guy! I am now +$5 in my budget before spending on my last offensive player for the UT spot, which I also have $5 budgeted for. Unfortunately there are no $10 players left, so I should have been more aggressive on a couple of players (a catcher maybe?). As it turns out, my UT was the last player I needed for my roster and I actually could have spent my final $ for him. However, the best player left in my mind was…JD Drew. Jack, our auctioneer, who by the way was GREAT and had us done in perfect time, knew no one could outbid me, so he expected I would just toss him out for my remaining amount. I did not want anyone to think I actually paid that much for him, so I tossed him out at $1. Someone called out $2, so I got him for $3. My UT will come from him, Rolen as I previously mentioned, Kosuke Fukudome whom I got in the reserve round, or Akinori Iwamuri, whom I also got in the reserve round. If Iwamuri, who is projected now to lead off for the Pirates, shows nearly the speed he showed before he got hurt (how often does that happen after an ACL injury?), he could be a nice bump in speed that I might need as I think I left myself a bit short even with buying Ellsbury. Akinori is flying under the radar a bit, perhaps because he plays in Pittsburgh , but at one time he put up a decent few Runs as well as a decent BA.



My first pitcher bought was Joachim Soria. I had budgeted $15 and for that I hoped I could get Soria, Papelbon or Broxton. I got my wish as he went for my final $15 bid. Later Papelbon went for $16 and Broxton $20 I think, so I am ok with this value. I had $5 budgeted for CL2, and that is what I paid for Frank Francisco. I like his stuff and I think the only thing keeping him from being ranked nearly as his as the others is his injury history and fly ball tendencies. Which is more than enough to keep him third tier, I agree. But if you are only willing to pay $5 for a closer, he is going to be as good as it gets. Pat Nesek is my back-up here and my bet is that he will end up the closer in Minnesota by mid-year.



My starters start out strong and fade to a plethora of risks all too quickly. I had planned to spend $15 each for my top two, $10 for my third and $5 each for the last four. I went the extra dollaror two for Billingsley. He is certainly second tier and he can drop some points with wildness, but he is only 25 and easily could top 200 ks and 15 wins this year. I spent $18 on him, so I was a little over budget.



A word on budgets. Of course I mention them a lot. I am an accountant. It is in my blood. I was not going to stick to a budget at the expense of my team if I could help it, but I did think it was a helpful tool to keep me from overpaying. I would rather have two $15 pitchers at value rather than pay $30+ for one and then have a $1 end-gamer.



My next SP is a guy I am really high on this year, Matt Garza. I got him on budget but way under value at $15. Strikeouts of 185+ are not out of the question and he has a good offensive team behind him, so wins shouldn’t be a problem, even against the Beasts in the East. Far earlier than I had hoped, someone brought up Phil Hughes. I had hoped to steal him for about $5 later in the draft, but do not regret paying $8 for him. I will slide him right into my $10 #3 starter position. I had him winning the fifth starter role all along. He has a live arm and good control. The downside to him is the Yanks are planning to limit him to 150 to 175 IP. That will be a problem in September.



Now the question marks really begin. I am a believer in the Dave Duncan magic, so I had hoped to take Brad Penny in the reserve rounds. Someone tossed him out at $1, I went $2 and got him. Cheap, but very risky pick. What do I hope to get out of him? This spring, like everyone else, he is working on things, so I haven’t been too worried about the results. A few years ago, Perry Van Hook thought I was a bit nuts to think he had a “live” arm. I have seen this big guy pitch, and for the world cannot figure out why his stuff cannot generate more K’s. His stuff seems to have plenty of gas.. I had him in 2008 and early on he got blown out of a couple of games. But looking over the inning by inning stats, in both games he had one inning where he gave up something like seven SINGLES to get in trouble. I think that had more to do with the LA infield rather than his ability, but results are what counts and he may just be the most unlucky guy I have seen. He hasn’t ever had more than 154 K’s in a season, but if he can get more people to swing at the sinker and not sit back on the fastball (Hello, Mr. Duncan, are you home?), he might get back up to at least 140 with better ERA and WHIP. I can dream, can’t I?



After him Aaron Harang was tossed. Mr. “Skills but No Results”. A few years ago, all the pundits were ready to anoint the next elite starter after three consecutive very nice years ending with an especially nice 2007. Harang burned people in 2008 and 2009 was not much better results wise. He will never change from being a fly-ball pitcher and that home park should be an albatross around his neck, but surprisingly enough he has pitched MUCH better (actually very good) at home than on the road. I spent $8 on this one banking on him solving his road woes and turning back up the gas.



Now I go to two guys who will not be ready to start the season, though both are expected back before the end of April, Ted Lilly ($4 and my only lefty despite my best intentions) and Diasuke Matsuzaka ($5). Since coming to Chicago and before the injury last year, Lilly had put in three nice years. Fifteen game winners with 180+ K’s don’t grow on trees, nor do they usually cost $4. I like this price and hopefully he will be fresh in September when the rubber hits the road.



I asked Greg after the auction if he would have paid $5 for Diasuke. Greg is a VERY nice guy. He scratched his chin and searched for something nice to say, but in the end, he had to say “No, I would not pay $5 for Diasuke.” Certainly Diasuke has not panned out quite like everyone thought. The wildness has killed him and the lack of conditioning hurt him last year. The excess of conditioning nearly did the same thing this year. I guess I am drinking the spring-training sound-bite Kool-Aide here, but he still pitches for Boston and he still has the arm for 200 K’s. If he can stay somewhere north of a 2.0 K to BB ratio (BIG if), I am ok. If not, I am scubbing the waiver wire for all it’s worth. I took him kind of in the middle of the auction and because I got him, I did not go for or risk a couple of other pitchers with a wild side. Could be a good thing or could be a bad thing.



John Lannan does not have much arm, but is pitching well this spring. That and $8 will get you a cup of coffee in Vegas. He and Jason Marquis are my reserve round starting pitching picks. I am damn sure I missed some other (read better) talent left out there so I am looking to upgrade for my Lilly/Matsuzaka April replacements.



So how do I think I did? Very middling really.



My SP started out OK, but finished poorly or at least with much risk. My guys generally pitch on teams that are or should be in the race at the end of the year, so Wins will be OK. Lilly and Matsuzaka come back soon enough, K’s will not be an issue, though I will not lead the league. ERA and WHIP are good, but with Penny, Harang and Matsuzaka, at serious risk. Soria and Francisco should keep me in the hunt for saves and if Nesek (or a couple of other guys I have my eyes on) gets a chance to save, I may go with three closers for a while, depending on where I am in strike-outs.



In batting, I had a nice start/advantage working in SB, but let it slip by me. My catchers are weak and need my other players to hold up their end. I like my OF very much, but that is about it. I have a few to many 5/6 hitter types rather than 3/4 hitter types.



I see at least three if not four changes coming to my team over the course of the year, hopefully sooner rather than later. I got some good value, but for now this looks like a middle of the roader unless several guys over-achieve a bit. I left about $4 on the table, so not too bad, but I could have/should have used it for a catcher upgrade or better starter.



No matter how the teams play out, I certainly enjoyed the auction. The other guys in the league certainly made it enjoyable and it was good passing a little time with all my new friends and old ones (figuratively speaking) like Chesty and Mike!



[ March 29, 2010, 06:42 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[SUPERFLY]

Holy cow....Now I have to go back and reread it...

[ALL-IN JD]

Wayne, I think Willingham, Garza and Lilly were great buys and will provide alot of profit. I was fortunate in my NY Friday morning auction in that ALOT of owners spent there money early so there were some exceptional buys for me late, i.e.:



Bucholz ($4)

Brandon Wood ($2)

LaPorta ($5)

Juan Rivera ($2)

Drew Stubbs ($2)

Marcum ($1)



Also paid $19 for Bay and $15 for Derek Lee which I thought was a little on the cheap side.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by ALL-IN JD:

Wayne, I think Willingham, Garza and Lilly were great buys and will provide alot of profit. I was fortunate in my NY Friday morning auction in that ALOT of owners spent there money early so there were some exceptional buys for me late, i.e.:



Bucholz ($4)

Brandon Wood ($2)

LaPorta ($5)

Juan Rivera ($2)

Drew Stubbs ($2)

Marcum ($1)



Also paid $19 for Bay and $15 for Derek Lee which I thought was a little on the cheap side. Sure you bought the right Bucholtz for that price?



Seriously, those are some solid buys. I know people have been discounting Bay due to his move to Petco East, but that price is exceptional as is Lee's.



Good luck!

[ALL-IN JD]

Thanks Wayne. Good luck to you too. I can tell you that I had no intention of buying either player. I was trying to price enforce and guess I got "stuck" with them!