My 2010 Main Event Team
Posted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 1:12 pm
The Main Event. The Mac-Daddy. The event that makes all others merely undercard events. From all my succeeding Main Events, I wanted to make one fundamental change. This year, I am gonna win. It is my year. It is my seventh year and I had the seventh pick. Lucky Sevens is on my side. Dave Clum was not in my league. The stars are aligned.
I admit I use ADP’s extensively in my planning, at least after we started getting NFBC-style ADP’s rather than lame-o ADP’s from mock drafts where half the participants are named “Auto”. Last year, I recognized a trend, planned to execute based on that trend, then out-smarted myself by making 11th hour changes to my strategy. Not an excuse, but if I had executed as I originally planned last year, I would have walked away with Tex, Crawford, and Youk as opposed to Rollins, Phillips, and the wrong Upton to begin the draft and I believe my end results would have been more positive. This year I did not make the same mistake.
A word on position scarcity. When Shawn and I were discussing Tulowitzki, whom I think is a great ballplayer, and the potential for taking at #7, it made me think why I was not so sure he was the right play in the first round. I have the same feeling about Mauer. The main reason I think I did not agree is because I do not believe those players will provide the same raw stats as the other players available. The main reason folks seem to go for those players is position scarcity. I could of course be wrong and Mauer repeats with 25+ HR, or Tulo hits 30+. However at the very early stages of the draft, I feel it is all about creating a base, be it 75/75 or whatever, of stats to build from. Position scarcity can positively play it self out in the 5th or 8th round rather than the 1st. I would rather fill my base stats pool from less risky sources, say LH power hitting, knucle-dragging first basemen. I could be basing my opinion on having been burnt last year a bit by going SS/2B in the first two rounds, but that is my story and I am sticking with it.
Going into the draft I was not expecting much to “fall” to me. Guys like Neal Moses, Rob Silver, Brent Grooms, Marc Meltzer, Steven Jupinka, KJ Duke, and Chris Poulson do not let much go by and these folks basically lined up on either side of me. So I expected to take who I decided had value in a round that made sense in order to build a balance team (i.e. not ditch saves, steals). I knew I would not dominate any one category or one position (like selecting Mauer/McCann and letting the rest scramble), but that was never my goal. I wanted to be generally in the 80% range for each stat. Nothing earth shattering there and pretty much paint-by-the-numbers for the NFBC set.
I sweated the first round more than any because of all the options. I had a feeling Utley or Kemp would fall to me or, if the skies parted, Braun. If not, I had my choice of Longoria, Howard, Tex, or Fielder. The person who fell to me was Kemp. I jumped in with both feet as I felt his 25+ (30+?) SB potential would keep me from being too tempted to take a Judy. Second round was a bit easier as I wanted a #3 or clean-up hitter and several would be available. I liked Youk here at #24 as his 1B/3B eligibility give a little flexibility and batting fourth in Boston is cake. Zimmerman would have been nice too, but he went a pick or two before me, which is something that of course happens frequently. I “settled” on Votto because of his park and his LHedness. As it turns out, Patrick Gagne and partner jumped on Youk. I think we were validating each other all day as if the choice came down to two, one of us would take the player that was left.
By the third, I made what I feel is my one and only true stretch, but it was not much of one. By this time, ARod, Longoria, Youk, Wright, Zimmerman and Sandoval were gone. I had one other 3rd basemen ranked to give me the power stats and BA I wanted for my base and who was at least equal in that department to most everyone left no matter the position, so I jumped on Aramis Rameriz at #37. I saw one draft at least I think where he made it to the fifth round, but generally I think he was going late third/early fourth. I did not want to risk not locking up what I felt was my second Top 15 corner man. Lots of stats in those guys and a pretty scary drop off after. I do not have anywhere close to 75 SB at this time, but the 75+ HR are what I think are a lock and BA has a very nice base.
I came down to two guys I had in mind for the fourth. I like Adam Lind and almost took him based solely on the fact that I already had Andre Ethier in my two other leagues. My man-crush took over and I selected the Dodger #3 hitter. More power stats and more BA. Good. I had targeted two guys, Andrew McCutchen and Shane Victorino for the fifth. Both are speed guys who are not going to kill you in HR. McCutchen went much earlier (like the third I want to say), so I sweated out whether or not Victorino would be there. Some pitching was and had been flying off the board and that trend continued. I originally had targeted the sixth as my first pitching round, so this was expected and did not bother me. As an alternative to Victorino had he been taken before my turn would be Brian Roberts, whom I had at value in the fifth. Victorino was indeed there and I picked up some nice speed, Runs and BA.
I the sixth, I felt one of Hamels, Hanson, Nolasco, Kershaw or Jimenez would drop to me. I believe all were gone (Jimenez may be the exception), so I made one small change in my draft. Roberts was still there and like I said, position scarcity has a way of working itself out, so I jumped on him. The back makes him risky, but here at #84 I think he a nice value pick. I’ve gone six straight offensive picks by this point and I have good BA’s up and down the line, great power (Kemp, Votto, AmRam, and Either) and good speed (Kemp, Victorino, and Roberts). I am very satisfied, though most all other teams have one or two pitchers by now.
My first pitcher was taken in the seventh and I jumped on Joakim Soria. He is ranked by me as a top three closer with Papelbon and Broxton, both of whom were gone. Having a nice base in offense and a top closer, I basically shut out everything out for two rounds for pitching. I had hoped to get a chance at Matt Garza or James Shields in the eighth. Both were there and I chose Garza. After his 2010 year, I predict he will be a top ten pitcher chosen next year, so I am not concerned about not having picked an “Ace” earlier. The ninth was easy as Shields was still there. Not excited about having two righties from the same team at the top of my staff, but with these two, I will not lose any sleep. Shields is as good a #2 as any.
With any luck, the tenth round was where I would may another concession to position scarcity and pick a catcher. I would like to have had Kurt Suzuki (500+ AB in the middle of the A’s line-up) or Geovany Soto (not as many AB maybe, but if he can be healthy like last June, big upside). Suzuki was long gone, but Soto was there and I dove in. He is easily a Top 10 catcher in my book. A point or two of contact rate to go with his walk rate will certain mean an uptick in an otherwise mediocre BA profile and a return to .280+ could be in the cards. If he does stay healthy (there is sure no back-up really challenging him) and gets to 500+ AB, 25 HR is a distinct possibility.
I am now at the end of the first ten, I have caught up to the pack with three pitchers, and I have one catcher, two corners, one middle, and three outfielders. Feeling good.
Pretty secure with my offensive base, I go a run of four pitchers in the next five picks. Starters Jared Weaver, Brandon Webb, and John Danks fall in rounds 11, 13, and 15 respectively. To me, Weaver and Danks speak for themselves. Solid, good control pitchers who should rack up some consistent innings while throwing seven or eight K’s per nine. Perfect mid-rotation guys. The wild card is Webb. He, when back and (big) if back to reasonable form, could easily take the place of the #1 I did not take in rounds three through five. Worth the gamble.
The other pitcher taken was Jason Frasor, newly minted closer for Toronto in the 14th. I had not planned on touching the Blue Jay closer situation, but several mini-closer runs had left me with few options. Frasor just happens to be the best guy for the job, but with Downs and Gregg around, he is going to have a short hook.
With the picks in round twelve and round sixteen, I closed out my middle infield with a couple of, well let’s just say “veteran” ballplayers. Miguel Tejada, who will bat somewhere from two to five in the Oriole line-up is a shell of the guy who cracked 150+ RBI’s in 2004. I doubt moving to third will improve his batting, but it may improve his durability. I hope for good BA and a full season. He will soon have dual eligibility, so that is a small plus.
I am a little more up-beat about Rafael Furcal. Hitting ahead of Kemp and Ethier (both of whom I have and do you think I will be staying up late for some West Coast games, or what) is great, but his OBP needs to be above the .335 mark, which seems to be his standard. The 40 SB are a thing of the past and back injuries are tricky, but he played a solid full season in 2009. He is only 32, so there may still be some life in those legs. Not a bad investment for the 16th round. I have to nice back-ups for the middle in full-timer Luis Valbuena (eligible at SS and 2B) and Akinori Iwamuri. Iwamuri is a bit of a forgotten man. Not a power guy, Iwamuri appears healthy again (to the point that the Pirates have moved McCutchen to the two-hole and Akinori is leading off) and in the past he has been a good source of BA with decent speed. He should score some runs, too.
I have been very high on my 17th round pick, Josh Willingham. With Dukes gone and the Nats considering Willie Harris a “starter”, Willingham, who hasn’t had 500+ AB in two years, suddenly has an opportunity to have more chances than at any time of his career. He is another guy who will take a walk but needs a point or two of contact help to crack .280. The extra AB should mean his counting stats from last year (24 HR and 77 RBI in 427 AB) should improve and that is nice production from the 17th round. I also have an outfielder scheduled right now as my UT in middle of the road David Dejesus. He will not help me much, but batting lead-off last year like he is planned to do this year, he had good BA, a few SB, a few HR, too few RBI but scored some decent runs. I also have Melky Cabrera on my bench, who should at least be on the right side of an outfield platoon with lefty killer Matt Diaz in Atlanta.
John Baker is my second catcher as he is in the Double-Play. Being left-handed, he will at least get most of the starts in a platoon in a division and league devoid of depth of LH starters. Since the third round, I hadn’t given much thought to cornermen. I am now the latest fool to take a flyer on Alex Gordon. Once the hot property, his job, when he comes back from the broken thumb, may have been saved by Alberto Callaspo’s recent injuries. One day he could live up to the early hype as he is only 26, but he is fast running out of chances. To back him up, I have another of the fallen, Garrett Atkins. I find it so very hard to believe that a guy who hit better than 20 HR, nearly 90 runs scored, and nearly 100 RBI’s in 2008 has just lost it at age 30. A big come-back should not surprise anyone.
Derek Lowe rounds out what I consider the very solid part of a very solid pitching staff. He had some real problems in the second half last year, but still won 15 games. As long as he is getting 55% to 60% ground balls, he will also help in ERA and WHIP. A smart, talented veteran, Lowe was stung by the Braves in their attempts to trade him. Let’s hope (for me) that he fights for redemption. I drafted another Brave, initially just to keep Brandon Webb’s seat warm, but I may have to use him longer as my 23rd round pitcher pick, Chris Tillman, just got his bus ticket to Norfolk. Kenshin Kawakami will regress from last years numbers, is being pressed by Kris Medlen, and is not an ideal candidate for my roster. I would love to hold onto Tillman for the future, but I am probably not going to be able to. He will be my first drop.
Thank the lord I have my 30th round pick, Jeremy Bonderman. Bonderman has the tools to be the Cy Young in the AL this year and I plan to ride him all the way to the top. And there is a room full of flying left-handed monkeys each with a bag of hammers pounding my head and hands as I type this. Bonderman was a flyer, but if I find a better option on the waivers I will jump. So somebody please tell the monkeys to leave me alone.
I also have Pat Nesek on my bench. If healthy, he could eventually slide into the Minnesota closer role before the All-Star Break.
That rounds out my team. I am very happy with eight/ninths of my pitching staff, but am thin at pitching reserve, especially until Webb toes the rubber. I like my hitter balance and feel I have a real chance at the numbers I need for 80% of the points. I would love to have one of Gordon or Atkins round to or back to form. My middle needs to stay healthy, but I like my bench depth there.
I have no more teams.
“I'm pretty tired... I think I'll go home now.”
Forrest Gump (1994)
[ March 31, 2010, 07:17 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
I admit I use ADP’s extensively in my planning, at least after we started getting NFBC-style ADP’s rather than lame-o ADP’s from mock drafts where half the participants are named “Auto”. Last year, I recognized a trend, planned to execute based on that trend, then out-smarted myself by making 11th hour changes to my strategy. Not an excuse, but if I had executed as I originally planned last year, I would have walked away with Tex, Crawford, and Youk as opposed to Rollins, Phillips, and the wrong Upton to begin the draft and I believe my end results would have been more positive. This year I did not make the same mistake.
A word on position scarcity. When Shawn and I were discussing Tulowitzki, whom I think is a great ballplayer, and the potential for taking at #7, it made me think why I was not so sure he was the right play in the first round. I have the same feeling about Mauer. The main reason I think I did not agree is because I do not believe those players will provide the same raw stats as the other players available. The main reason folks seem to go for those players is position scarcity. I could of course be wrong and Mauer repeats with 25+ HR, or Tulo hits 30+. However at the very early stages of the draft, I feel it is all about creating a base, be it 75/75 or whatever, of stats to build from. Position scarcity can positively play it self out in the 5th or 8th round rather than the 1st. I would rather fill my base stats pool from less risky sources, say LH power hitting, knucle-dragging first basemen. I could be basing my opinion on having been burnt last year a bit by going SS/2B in the first two rounds, but that is my story and I am sticking with it.
Going into the draft I was not expecting much to “fall” to me. Guys like Neal Moses, Rob Silver, Brent Grooms, Marc Meltzer, Steven Jupinka, KJ Duke, and Chris Poulson do not let much go by and these folks basically lined up on either side of me. So I expected to take who I decided had value in a round that made sense in order to build a balance team (i.e. not ditch saves, steals). I knew I would not dominate any one category or one position (like selecting Mauer/McCann and letting the rest scramble), but that was never my goal. I wanted to be generally in the 80% range for each stat. Nothing earth shattering there and pretty much paint-by-the-numbers for the NFBC set.
I sweated the first round more than any because of all the options. I had a feeling Utley or Kemp would fall to me or, if the skies parted, Braun. If not, I had my choice of Longoria, Howard, Tex, or Fielder. The person who fell to me was Kemp. I jumped in with both feet as I felt his 25+ (30+?) SB potential would keep me from being too tempted to take a Judy. Second round was a bit easier as I wanted a #3 or clean-up hitter and several would be available. I liked Youk here at #24 as his 1B/3B eligibility give a little flexibility and batting fourth in Boston is cake. Zimmerman would have been nice too, but he went a pick or two before me, which is something that of course happens frequently. I “settled” on Votto because of his park and his LHedness. As it turns out, Patrick Gagne and partner jumped on Youk. I think we were validating each other all day as if the choice came down to two, one of us would take the player that was left.
By the third, I made what I feel is my one and only true stretch, but it was not much of one. By this time, ARod, Longoria, Youk, Wright, Zimmerman and Sandoval were gone. I had one other 3rd basemen ranked to give me the power stats and BA I wanted for my base and who was at least equal in that department to most everyone left no matter the position, so I jumped on Aramis Rameriz at #37. I saw one draft at least I think where he made it to the fifth round, but generally I think he was going late third/early fourth. I did not want to risk not locking up what I felt was my second Top 15 corner man. Lots of stats in those guys and a pretty scary drop off after. I do not have anywhere close to 75 SB at this time, but the 75+ HR are what I think are a lock and BA has a very nice base.
I came down to two guys I had in mind for the fourth. I like Adam Lind and almost took him based solely on the fact that I already had Andre Ethier in my two other leagues. My man-crush took over and I selected the Dodger #3 hitter. More power stats and more BA. Good. I had targeted two guys, Andrew McCutchen and Shane Victorino for the fifth. Both are speed guys who are not going to kill you in HR. McCutchen went much earlier (like the third I want to say), so I sweated out whether or not Victorino would be there. Some pitching was and had been flying off the board and that trend continued. I originally had targeted the sixth as my first pitching round, so this was expected and did not bother me. As an alternative to Victorino had he been taken before my turn would be Brian Roberts, whom I had at value in the fifth. Victorino was indeed there and I picked up some nice speed, Runs and BA.
I the sixth, I felt one of Hamels, Hanson, Nolasco, Kershaw or Jimenez would drop to me. I believe all were gone (Jimenez may be the exception), so I made one small change in my draft. Roberts was still there and like I said, position scarcity has a way of working itself out, so I jumped on him. The back makes him risky, but here at #84 I think he a nice value pick. I’ve gone six straight offensive picks by this point and I have good BA’s up and down the line, great power (Kemp, Votto, AmRam, and Either) and good speed (Kemp, Victorino, and Roberts). I am very satisfied, though most all other teams have one or two pitchers by now.
My first pitcher was taken in the seventh and I jumped on Joakim Soria. He is ranked by me as a top three closer with Papelbon and Broxton, both of whom were gone. Having a nice base in offense and a top closer, I basically shut out everything out for two rounds for pitching. I had hoped to get a chance at Matt Garza or James Shields in the eighth. Both were there and I chose Garza. After his 2010 year, I predict he will be a top ten pitcher chosen next year, so I am not concerned about not having picked an “Ace” earlier. The ninth was easy as Shields was still there. Not excited about having two righties from the same team at the top of my staff, but with these two, I will not lose any sleep. Shields is as good a #2 as any.
With any luck, the tenth round was where I would may another concession to position scarcity and pick a catcher. I would like to have had Kurt Suzuki (500+ AB in the middle of the A’s line-up) or Geovany Soto (not as many AB maybe, but if he can be healthy like last June, big upside). Suzuki was long gone, but Soto was there and I dove in. He is easily a Top 10 catcher in my book. A point or two of contact rate to go with his walk rate will certain mean an uptick in an otherwise mediocre BA profile and a return to .280+ could be in the cards. If he does stay healthy (there is sure no back-up really challenging him) and gets to 500+ AB, 25 HR is a distinct possibility.
I am now at the end of the first ten, I have caught up to the pack with three pitchers, and I have one catcher, two corners, one middle, and three outfielders. Feeling good.
Pretty secure with my offensive base, I go a run of four pitchers in the next five picks. Starters Jared Weaver, Brandon Webb, and John Danks fall in rounds 11, 13, and 15 respectively. To me, Weaver and Danks speak for themselves. Solid, good control pitchers who should rack up some consistent innings while throwing seven or eight K’s per nine. Perfect mid-rotation guys. The wild card is Webb. He, when back and (big) if back to reasonable form, could easily take the place of the #1 I did not take in rounds three through five. Worth the gamble.
The other pitcher taken was Jason Frasor, newly minted closer for Toronto in the 14th. I had not planned on touching the Blue Jay closer situation, but several mini-closer runs had left me with few options. Frasor just happens to be the best guy for the job, but with Downs and Gregg around, he is going to have a short hook.
With the picks in round twelve and round sixteen, I closed out my middle infield with a couple of, well let’s just say “veteran” ballplayers. Miguel Tejada, who will bat somewhere from two to five in the Oriole line-up is a shell of the guy who cracked 150+ RBI’s in 2004. I doubt moving to third will improve his batting, but it may improve his durability. I hope for good BA and a full season. He will soon have dual eligibility, so that is a small plus.
I am a little more up-beat about Rafael Furcal. Hitting ahead of Kemp and Ethier (both of whom I have and do you think I will be staying up late for some West Coast games, or what) is great, but his OBP needs to be above the .335 mark, which seems to be his standard. The 40 SB are a thing of the past and back injuries are tricky, but he played a solid full season in 2009. He is only 32, so there may still be some life in those legs. Not a bad investment for the 16th round. I have to nice back-ups for the middle in full-timer Luis Valbuena (eligible at SS and 2B) and Akinori Iwamuri. Iwamuri is a bit of a forgotten man. Not a power guy, Iwamuri appears healthy again (to the point that the Pirates have moved McCutchen to the two-hole and Akinori is leading off) and in the past he has been a good source of BA with decent speed. He should score some runs, too.
I have been very high on my 17th round pick, Josh Willingham. With Dukes gone and the Nats considering Willie Harris a “starter”, Willingham, who hasn’t had 500+ AB in two years, suddenly has an opportunity to have more chances than at any time of his career. He is another guy who will take a walk but needs a point or two of contact help to crack .280. The extra AB should mean his counting stats from last year (24 HR and 77 RBI in 427 AB) should improve and that is nice production from the 17th round. I also have an outfielder scheduled right now as my UT in middle of the road David Dejesus. He will not help me much, but batting lead-off last year like he is planned to do this year, he had good BA, a few SB, a few HR, too few RBI but scored some decent runs. I also have Melky Cabrera on my bench, who should at least be on the right side of an outfield platoon with lefty killer Matt Diaz in Atlanta.
John Baker is my second catcher as he is in the Double-Play. Being left-handed, he will at least get most of the starts in a platoon in a division and league devoid of depth of LH starters. Since the third round, I hadn’t given much thought to cornermen. I am now the latest fool to take a flyer on Alex Gordon. Once the hot property, his job, when he comes back from the broken thumb, may have been saved by Alberto Callaspo’s recent injuries. One day he could live up to the early hype as he is only 26, but he is fast running out of chances. To back him up, I have another of the fallen, Garrett Atkins. I find it so very hard to believe that a guy who hit better than 20 HR, nearly 90 runs scored, and nearly 100 RBI’s in 2008 has just lost it at age 30. A big come-back should not surprise anyone.
Derek Lowe rounds out what I consider the very solid part of a very solid pitching staff. He had some real problems in the second half last year, but still won 15 games. As long as he is getting 55% to 60% ground balls, he will also help in ERA and WHIP. A smart, talented veteran, Lowe was stung by the Braves in their attempts to trade him. Let’s hope (for me) that he fights for redemption. I drafted another Brave, initially just to keep Brandon Webb’s seat warm, but I may have to use him longer as my 23rd round pitcher pick, Chris Tillman, just got his bus ticket to Norfolk. Kenshin Kawakami will regress from last years numbers, is being pressed by Kris Medlen, and is not an ideal candidate for my roster. I would love to hold onto Tillman for the future, but I am probably not going to be able to. He will be my first drop.
Thank the lord I have my 30th round pick, Jeremy Bonderman. Bonderman has the tools to be the Cy Young in the AL this year and I plan to ride him all the way to the top. And there is a room full of flying left-handed monkeys each with a bag of hammers pounding my head and hands as I type this. Bonderman was a flyer, but if I find a better option on the waivers I will jump. So somebody please tell the monkeys to leave me alone.
I also have Pat Nesek on my bench. If healthy, he could eventually slide into the Minnesota closer role before the All-Star Break.
That rounds out my team. I am very happy with eight/ninths of my pitching staff, but am thin at pitching reserve, especially until Webb toes the rubber. I like my hitter balance and feel I have a real chance at the numbers I need for 80% of the points. I would love to have one of Gordon or Atkins round to or back to form. My middle needs to stay healthy, but I like my bench depth there.
I have no more teams.
“I'm pretty tired... I think I'll go home now.”
Forrest Gump (1994)
[ March 31, 2010, 07:17 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
