Lower Round Bargains

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:42 am

I'm a cheap basstard. I'll go to Wal-Mart three miles out of the way before I'll stop at a convenience store along the way on my route.

With that in mind, I enjoy the second half of drafts far more than the first half. Finding value at Tiffanys is easy when you have a million dollar bill in your pocket (Obama shoud be printing these up shortly). Try getting value at the Dollar Store with a few coins in your pocket. That's the challenge.

With this in mind, here is a list of players at the Dollar Store, who most likely, will have to be recalled from their shelves due to price increases.

1. Kyle Blanks.

The guy I had to have for both Main Events. There is no justification for him being at the Dollar Store. While others are buying Jason Heyward and paying full price, Blanks comes at a discount. The ballpark, the west coast team, the injury, they all worked in perfect harmony to keep this guys price low. For those of us who selected him in the 15th round and beyond, enjoy.

2. Ryan Madson.

Nobody knows if Brad Lidge will even throw another pitch this year. When he does, bad things happen. Madson isn't even prominantly displayed at the Dollar Store and could be had in the late teens and beyond.

3. Ian Desmond

He showed signs of what he was capable of last year. Christian Guzman has a lot in common with Yuni Betancourt and Desmond is dripping wet with talent. Best of all, he comes at a great discount for a starting shortstop.

4. J.A. Happ

Here is a case of "experts" holding down the price of a player. They say he was lucky last year with strand rates and babip, and every other category or number they can come up with to prove a point. The point should be, that he is a good pitcher, pitching for a good team at a bargain price. Not many of those around.

5. Joe Saunders

The k rap. He delivers in a lot of areas, but will never get the k's that fantasy players crave. The thing is, that the guy has won more games during the last two years than most pitchers taken in the first five rounds.

6. Scott Podsednik

I've never taken Scott Podsednik on any team until this year. He is on par with Brett Gardner this year (sorry, Mrs Gardner), if you need really, really cheap speed and nothing else, Pods is your man.

7. John Buck

Gene Tenace turned Rod Barajas around last year. I expect he will do the same with Buck. Tenace is a batting coach that does not get near enough ink from the press, but he had Toronto hitters slugging last year.

8. Alberto Callaspo

NorCal will be shocked to see two Royals on the list. Callaspo is the perfect pick for a guy needing batting average late in the draft. Not many dual eligible middle infielders will be hitting third for their teams this year. The Royals are bad enough to accommodate this.

9. Conor Jackson

How soon they forget. This guy was going in the 10th round alongside James Loney just two short years ago. The only thing Loney has proved since then is that his lack of power is for real. Jackson has only proved that Valley Fever is a bitch.

10. Jonny Gomes

Cheap power and speed combo's are hard to find late in drafts. Gomes is a vagabond during the season as well as the off season. He can go 0fer three games in a row and then light it up with a two hr, 1 sb performance. Best of all, he comes in a 20-something round.

These guys aren't sexy. Dollar Store items have to be shopped carefully. These players will be a good supporting cast to the stars that were taken in the higher rounds. And some, may even be in those higher rounds next year.

[ April 02, 2010, 12:08 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:50 am

lower round bargains might be a better name. "better" is stretching it.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:50 am

[ April 02, 2010, 11:53 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:50 am

What about Emilio Bonifacio?

[ April 02, 2010, 11:51 AM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:52 am

Worried about Blanks' batting average? I thought LaPorta was a nice alternative back there.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:55 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

lower round bargains might be a better name. "better" is stretching it. Funny you mention that. I had intended on going another way with this post and settled on this direction. Good catch.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 6:01 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

Worried about Blanks' batting average? I thought LaPorta was a nice alternative back there. I am completely sold on Blanks. No fears about his batting average. As you know, I don't do projections, but I can see him hitting in the .270-.280 range.

I want to see how LaPorta does with shuffling of positions. His defense may be a big enough disappointment or distraction for the Indians, that they eventually dh him.

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 6:18 am

Josh Willingham - The Nats lineup is pretty decent. If healthy, 30 HRs, 90 RBIs, 260-270 BA. Not bad for a 5th OF

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 6:57 am

I would like to add the following 3 OF's to the list...

Chris Young

Drew Stubbs

Marlon Byrd

If Young brings up that average to the .260 range....LOOK OUT!!

Love everything I see with Stubbs. Shandler says last year's power numbers when he came up were a fluke. So far he has 5 in the spring, and plays in a great park for HR's. We know he has the wheels once on base, just needs to get on base.

Byrd is tentatively hitting 5th, hits for a respectable average, and has the speed to steal 10 bags. Power numbers could be decent as well.

HONORABLE MENTION....

Ryan Raburn

All he needs is full time AB's to explode on the scene. And since Detroit looks like they are starting a retirement community with Guillen and Ordonez, he might just get a shot.

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 7:08 am

I kinda like Young (at least where he was being drafted), but I dont like Stubbs even a little bit. 5 HRs and 143Ks in 660 ABs above A ball. Terible contact skills. Can see him hitting below .240, mooting his speed skills. With Dickerson capable of replacing him, I don't see Stubbs getting 500 ABs this year. But what do I know.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:45 am

A couple late one's.

Jose Bautista batting leadoff and 5 spring homers,also plays 3rd and of.

Cliff Pennington having a nice spring,will steal over 20 and hit over 280.

Fausto Carmona he's back with an era under 1.50 this spring,and only 2 walks unreal.

Mike Aviles coming off tommy john surgery and smacking the ball this spring.I think he will be all over and then settle at short.

Felipe Paulino has won the 5th spot and has legit stuff,just needs a little control.

Nate Robertson now the 4th starter in FLA and having a nice spring with a 2 hitter yesterday with 6 k's in 7 innings.Great job if you grabbed him in an american league auction.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:50 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

1. Kyle Blanks.

The guy I had to have for both Main Events. There is no justification for him being at the Dollar Store. you mean the 26Ks and only 5BB in 63 at bats in Aug was a good thing!

[ April 02, 2010, 02:55 PM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:57 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

1. Kyle Blanks.

The guy I had to have for both Main Events. There is no justification for him being at the Dollar Store. you mean the 26Ks and only 5BB in 63 at bats in Sept was a good thing! [/QUOTE]Mark this guy is a beast and dont forget about the 10 homers in few atbats.Blanks is certainly an upside pick and that late it wont hurt you. :rolleyes:

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:04 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Mark this guy is a beast and dont forget about the 10 homers in few atbats.Blanks is certainly an upside pick and that late it wont hurt you. :rolleyes: i understand that eddie. he didn't show much power in the minors as a whole, so he could be blossoming now! decent buy for $1

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:56 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by eddiejag:

Mark this guy is a beast and dont forget about the 10 homers in few atbats.Blanks is certainly an upside pick and that late it wont hurt you. :rolleyes: i understand that eddie. he didn't show much power in the minors as a whole, so he could be blossoming now! decent buy for $1 [/QUOTE]didnt show much power in the minors? yeah.. look at them. also notice the 300 career avg in the minors along with a good enough eye to have an obp over 400. throw in some speed and an aggressive baserunning approach in SD and it just keeps getting more exciting.

dude at times you are delusional. im sure you just didnt get him so you are hating on him.

hitting 4th behind adrian is going to be sweet for us blanks owners!

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:58 am

Rasmus, Millidge, Maybin, D.Young are a few other post-hype bargain outfielders I targeted for potential breakouts as well as the previously mentioned Stubbs, Blanks, & C.Young.

I think outfield was definitely the position to find late value this year and all my drafts reflected that.

Glenn

Snord35 · Post by **Snord35** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 1:09 pm

One guy I missed out on but think will provide great value is Delmon Young. He looks quick again on the bases after dropping 30 pounds. The guy could always hit average it's just waiting for that 30 HR power we all were told he has. I feel Young can hit .290+ this season with Run and RBI totals around 75 with HR and SB totals close to 18. Young isn't even 25 yet so a big breakout can happen.

Preseason Projection for 2010

Games 139

AB's 540

Avg .294

R 74

HR 18

RBI 78

SB 19

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:54 pm

What about Juan Rivera? Are you kidding me? 25hr, 280+ba, 90+ rbi!

Spyhunter

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:23 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

1. Kyle Blanks.

The guy I had to have for both Main Events. There is no justification for him being at the Dollar Store. you mean the 26Ks and only 5BB in 63 at bats in Aug was a good thing! [/QUOTE]I remember picking up Blanks, C Gonzalez, and W Davis last year in the final couple months of the season on a small faab budget and, out of all 3, I loved Blanks the most until he got hurt. It seemed like every night he hit a HR. For a guy like Doughy who doesn't do projections, I totally understand falling in love with Blanks. I do projections and even though everything points towards a .250 or so avg, my gut tells me .270. Maybe next year, I'll pass on projections too!

I love these types of threads. How about some hitters after Rd 25:

Aviles- I know he was mentioned but I really think he'll find his way into the starting lineup. Betancourt is at SS!

Ankiel- 28th rd or so and he's hitting cleanup. Now this guy will likely hit .250 or so but if you need HRs and RBIs, it's so rare to find a clean up hitter this late. I know he's been dealing with ankle(?) or achilles soreness lately so that is a concern.

Bautista- 9 of his 13 HRs last year came in 1 month (Aug or Sept?) after he changed his batting stance and he hit .265 or so that month (much better than his .235 or so every other month). I never thought Bautista would be rosterable and maybe I've been fooled by his spring stats but it's becoming harder to keep ignoring him.

Crisp- He was more of a 20-22nd rounder but still excellent value. He appears healthy and could hit .270 with 25 steals and 85 runs atop the A's lineup. I targeted him in many drafts but only landed him on 1 team.

He's having a big spring but... one player I wanted to avoid in the middle rounds was D Stubbs. Too many Ks.

The one player I might have overrated but tried to draft on every single team beginning with a January slow draft: Colby Lewis.

Two middle-of-the-road closers I refused to draft this year: Aardsma and Hoffman. Aardsma- poor control. Hoffman- because I've never owned him before and the year I draft him will be the year his arm falls off.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:33 pm

Putting career bests all together...

.290

13 HR

14 SB

93 RBI

80 Run

That looks about right. Not bad, but temper the 20-20 dreams. (Delmon)

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:35 pm

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

Rasmus, Millidge, Maybin, D.Young are a few other post-hype bargain outfielders I targeted for potential breakouts as well as the previously mentioned Stubbs, Blanks, & C.Young.

I think outfield was definitely the position to find late value this year and all my drafts reflected that.

Glenn Glenn,

Yes, there definitely seemed to be plenty of OFs to grab later in the draft. However, it was tough to pass on so many good OFs in rds 6 to 10. I think some guys really liked Rasmus this year, me included.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Apr 02, 2010 5:39 pm

In my silly little world of thinking...

I like the players who hit after Pujols...

a) Pujols just got a hit or a walk, and he's pitching from the stretch with limited room for error, and the stress of a homerun now worth at least double!

b) Pujols JUST HIT a home run, in which case he's pitching pissed off or low on confidence or rattled and low on focus...all good!

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sat Apr 03, 2010 1:26 am

Originally posted by rkulaski:

quote:Originally posted by Glenneration X:

Rasmus, Millidge, Maybin, D.Young are a few other post-hype bargain outfielders I targeted for potential breakouts as well as the previously mentioned Stubbs, Blanks, & C.Young.

I think outfield was definitely the position to find late value this year and all my drafts reflected that.

Glenn Glenn,

Yes, there definitely seemed to be plenty of OFs to grab later in the draft. However, it was tough to pass on so many good OFs in rds 6 to 10. I think some guys really liked Rasmus this year, me included. [/QUOTE]I agree. There seemed to be a lot of undervalued outfielders in the 6th - 10th rounds. The guy I seemed to grab on many of my teams from this area was McLouth. I need a big year out of him.

Glenn

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Sat Apr 03, 2010 4:58 am

How about Shaun Marcum and Sean Rodriguez?

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Sat Apr 03, 2010 5:08 am

Originally posted by Snord35:

One guy I missed out on but think will provide great value is Delmon Young. He looks quick again on the bases after dropping 30 pounds. The guy could always hit average it's just waiting for that 30 HR power we all were told he has. I feel Young can hit .290+ this season with Run and RBI totals around 75 with HR and SB totals close to 18. Young isn't even 25 yet so a big breakout can happen.

Preseason Projection for 2010

Games 139

AB's 540

Avg .294

R 74

HR 18

RBI 78

SB 19 I just dont see this especially the 540 atbats.I think Thome is still a professional hitter and will take bats away from Young and even Kubel a few.Unless of injury i dont see even 400.