The Diary of Punting Saves

[JaserD]

Other than an intro Online team last year, I'm new to NFBC but a roto vet in various formats since the late 80's. Through the years, I've "experimented" with punting Saves to varying degree of success. 10-12 team free online leagues were relatively easy to win back in the day by punting Saves (as long as you drafted well offensively and kept your ratio's competitive). I graduated to CDM and won a 25 team DC league by punting saves and flirted with a Top 25 OA team in the IC with a "Punt" Saves team.



I say this as background, because as I entered my NFBC teams this year, the thought had crossed my mind to try a Punt Saves team and go for a league Title to help defer the cost of all my entries (1 Main, 1 DP and 3 Online). While I believe punting Saves is both a viable and arguably a "good" strategy to win a league, I fully realize the odds of winning an OA Title with this strategy gets slimmer with each entry in the competition and thus decided to keep my eye on the bigger picture and play each team "straight up".



As I headed into my final Online draft last night from the 6 spot, I had decided to "diversify my portfolio" and draft differently than my previous 4 drafts (I'm sure I'm not the only one with multiple teams who likes certain players in certain rounds and ends up with many same players on multiple teams).



I wanted to focus this team on higher AVG and solid SP in the early rds. Specifically, I targeted Cabrera and Halladay Rd 1 and 2. I figured I'd look at the best available players Rds 3-5 and stick in Greinke, King Felix, Haren, Verly or Lester behind Halladay if no one of significance fell. I'd solidify my SP's in rds 6-8 with 2 of the quality tiered SP's that fall in this range. I'd grab a couple of the higher quality RP's 9-12 and finish with some value hitters that I feel are somewhat abundant later in the draft. I had a plan. I liked my plan. I was ready to implement.



Rd 1.06: M Cabrera - None of the Top 5 fall which makes my choice easy. I have a plan. Check.



Rd 2.07: R Halladay - Lincecum was taken a couple picks earlier. Perfect! Nothing feels better than a plan coming together. I'm now stoked to see what Rds 3 and 4 bring!



Rd 3.06: P Sandoval - Greinke and King Felix still on the board so maybe they slip to me in Rd 4. Sandoval supports my AVG initiative and gives me some corner position flexibility. Locked and loaded!



Rd 4.07: A Lind - Greinke and Felix are taken. I can go Verly or Haren, but I know I like Lester a little better. Lester at 5.06 (next round is right within his ADP) is within reason and Lind is best player on my board. Easy decision.



Rd 5.06: J Bay - Verly and Haren are taken as expected, but Lester goes the pick right before me. Shoot. I look at my SP board, and it seems to early to reach for the Johnson, Gallardo, Kershaw, Nolasco types. I look at my offensive board and see Bay as my 2nd rated player behind Markakis. Markakis should be drafted about now, but Bay fell more than a full rd from my listed 4.04 ADP. Grab the good guys that fall right? I hesitated for a second before I clicked because I know a 2nd OF this early will probably screw up some of my plans for acquiring OF speed later, but the heck with it. He fell a full round and I'm feeling good.



Rd 6.07: C Figgins - About 2 picks after Bay, I become increasingly concerned about SB's. We all know the handful of OF guys that should theft 30-50 times, but what if they go early? What if I am left scrambling for SB's? I know I really should pick a SP here, but I should be able to get one of the SP's mentioned above from 7. Figgins may not make it to the middle of 7 and he would really give me some SB flexibility later in the draft. I say a little, "Run Figgy, Run" as I draft him.



Rd 7.06 - N Markakis - Soon after the Figgins pick, I'm thinking which SP I would take at 7. Then Johnson gets drafted. Then Hanson. Then Carp. Then Gallardo. Then Nolasco. Now it's my turn. A little nervous twitch hits my clicker finger as I go back to my draft sheet. I know the damage is bad...but maybe the drafting SP scavengers missed somebody. Maybe. Hopefully. Ubaldo is the highest guy on my board, but his ADP isn't until my next pick. Hamels, Peavy and Vazquez are also all there, but not rated as high on my list as Ubaldo. Kershaw ranks a bit behind Ubaldo and is the logical pick. Phew, the SP scavengers did leave a morsel! I'm about ready to confirm the Dodgers southpaw when I decide to take a quick look at my offensive board. "Holy cow", I think as I do a double-take. Markakis is still there! I had Markakis rated higher than Bay 2 rds ago and he's now slipped more than 2 rds. Not only is Markakis my top rated player at the moment, but by about the length of Fenway's home plate to the Pesky Pole. I know Kershaw is a better fit for my team, but I still have Ubaldo rated higher and talk myself into the good possibility that Ubaldo is there next rd. Not only that, the SP scavengers are done and will realize they shouldn't have left Markakis sitting on my front porch with bows and ribbons. 10 seconds left on my clock and I confirm myself as the proud owner of a 2 rd slider...like taking candy from a baby!



Rd 8.07: W Rodriguez - Kershaw, Hamels, Peavy, Vazquez, Cain and my savior Ubaldo all gone. I tell myself not even to look at my offensive board as it doesn't matter what value is there. I need a pitcher and I need him stat. Wandy or Billingsley? I like Bills a tad better but have him on other teams. I remind myself of diversification. Welcome Wandy. With less confidence I think maybe Bills makes it back around to me. He's taken the pick after Wandy.



Rd 9.06: D Uggla - Uggla has been a favorite of mine this entire draft season. I have him rated about the same as Hill and Zobrist who are going 4-5 rds earlier. I don't like the logical SP's in the 9-10 rd range, I need a 2B and have Uggla's ADP at 8.03. Another slipper and a personal favorite. Easy choice.



Rd 10.07: J Pierre - At this point, I start realizing that Saves might become an issue as Wilson, Bell and Soria are taken before me. No worries though, I've read enough articles that say early rd closers are the worst picks. They'll all probably get hurt and 5 guys we've never heard of will Save 30 games. Plenty of RP's on the board anyways. I still don't like the SP's and don't want to waste a pick on a SP for the sake of an SP. Looking at my team projections up to this point, I like everything but SB's. Figgins needs a partner in crime and I read somewhere on these boards (or in a FanBall magazine) that Pierre may steal 120 bases under Ozzie. And if I take Pierre, I give Figgins protection and take away a prime SB guy from the 11 other teams I am competing with. I take a quick peak at my offensive balance. I like what I see. I don't look at my pitching staff.



Rd 11.06: B Anderson - I still haven't looked at my staff, but I know I need a pitcher. I'm not as high on Anderson as many, but he's not on any of my teams and I need a pitcher. He'll do. I'm a bit higher on Anderson today than I was yesterday but mainly because he's on my team.



Rd 12.07: M Scherzer - Scherzer is a guy I really like and was ecstatic to see him still on the board. The SP Scavengers have moved on to other positions. I'm feeling a little bit better about my staff, albeit I still need 2.5 relievers. Plenty of time. Aardsma, Wagner, Qualls, Cordero and the stank guys all still there.



Rd 13.06: M Montero - I know I need an RP. Aaardsma, Wagner and Qualls now off the board. I know the 2nd tier RP run is coming. I can smell it. I can feel it. It probably already started. As I am weighing Cordero, Fuentes, Hoffman, I check my positional scarcity board and see Montero sitting at the top of my C list a full 2 Rds behind his ADP of 11.04. 2 Rds! That hard to describe warm and fuzzy feeling hit me for the 2nd time of the draft. 2 Rds! I've come to find that this hard to describe warm and fuzzy feeling certainly feels good in the moment, but does alter the rational part of the brain a bit. If you're reading this, I know you know what I mean. Montero or Fuentes. Montero or Fuentes. Easy choice (under the influence of warm and fuzzy feelings of course).



Rd 14.07: R Davis - I fully admit...now I'm just getting greedy. Do I really need R Davis when I have Figgins and Pierre? I have 4 SP's and only like 3 of them. I have 0 RP's. I have no business picking Davis and I know it, but this pick kind of felt like going through the McDonalds drive through for a double cheeseburger and fries on the way home from dinner at your parents. You don't need it. You shouldn't do it. The dinner was fine and you ate plenty. But man, nothing beats a McDonalds cheeseburger and fries even when you're full. Call it a guilty pleasure...call it what you want. I'm feeling good about my SB situation...and that was all that mattered. As I come off my Rajai high, the reality of possibly punting saves is starting to set in. It's been in my periphery since the Uggla pick at 9, but I kept thinking (probably a denial thing) there would be a next rd for a RP. At this point, periphery is becoming reality and I am realizing there aren't many next rds...more importantly, there aren't many RP's left.



Rd 15.06: R Ludwick - I love this guy and think he could be the best "value" of the entire draft. It wouldn't have mattered if I had looked to see that the best available closers were Nunez and Frasor because I was going Ludwick regardless. I'm not afraid to say that I may have a "man-crush" on Ludwick, his projected stats and his ADP. Soon after my quick pump fist for getting Ludwick again, I come to the conclusion that I am punting Saves. Lidge is still there. Nunez, Frasor, Dotel, Lindstrom, Lyon and the entire Minnesota bullpen is still available (except the pitching coach). I could go try and grab 2 of these guys with Lidge and a) hope Lidge healthifies himself and b) no one else grabs these guys and makes any of my prior RP picks irrelevant. I decide it's too much risk, with no calculatable upside. I'm going to draft as many SP's as I can and get the best on my board. I'll fill in the rest of my roster as values and positional requirements dictate.



Rd 16: J DeLaRosa

Rd 17: C Ianetta

Rd 18: G Floyd

Rd 19: J Peralta

Rd 20: A Chapman

Rd 21: A Harang

Rd 22: I Desmond

Rd 23: J Cueto

Rd 24: J Francoeur

Rd 25: K Matsui

Rd 26: C Lewis

Rd 27: G Atkins

Rd 28: I Kennedy

Rd 29: F Paulino

Rd 30: T Wakefield



I know this team won't compete for an OA prize, but I am hoping it may compete for a League title. I'll need my offense to stay healthy and my SP "thirteensome" will need to keep their ratio's manageable.



As I look back on my draft, the end result certainly was not what I had in mind, but I had a great time drafting this train wreck and not sure I'd change anything if given the opportunity to make different decisions under the same circumstances.



If you ever run into a punt saves team in your league...it may not always be intentional

[NorCalAtlFan]

Not sure how good or bad the team is, but I love the thought process. Thanks for sharing.

I'm with you on Ludwick btw. And great value with Montero.

[Glenneration X]

Can't see punting a category in an overall contest. Not a bad strategy for an online or private league. Well, of all categories to punt during the initial draft, saves are the most likely to find on the waiver wire.



Glenn

[Schwks]

one of the best posts of the year

[Oaktown]

Jaser: Great stuff bro...really fun read.

[glenlake22]

nice post.

[Closter Knickerbockers]

I've seen you do the Saves Punting thing in IC a couple of times and you do it well, when you choose to. So this, while not originally intended, is going to be interesting given your track record. Good luck and keep us posted on how the experiment is going.