My Double Play Team

[whipsaw]

This is my first year playing in the NFBC, and since I couldn't make any of the live events, I signed up for a handful of online double play leagues. I've really enjoyed reading the posts where people explain their teams, so I decided to keep reasonable notes on my 4pm draft team today.



My general strategy is to load up on power bats early, and in the early rounds focus on filling in where there's ADP-adjusted positional scarcity. This doesn't mean necessarily taking middle infielders and catchers early, but focus on those positions that have the fewest players with profitable ADPs. This year I think the corner infield positions are very shallow value-wise. I think outfield and SP are incredibly deep this year (deeper than most people think, based on what I've read on here). Filling up on monster power bats early gives me the flexibility to take a judy later without it killing my power totals (Rajai Davis is my personal favorite this year). I don't generally pick a pitcher in the first ten picks, hardly ever more than one. I'm also very hesitant to take what I consider a batting average black hole in the early rounds - I think it's hard in the later rounds to compensate. So let's see how it works out!



Starting from the 9 hole, caffeine in hand, I'm ready to draft.



Round 1: The standard players fly off the board early, and I'm faced with a decision I expect to have - Fielder or Miggy. I decide to go with the bigger bat and choose Prince. He should provide more homers, more counting stats, and his average shouldn't hurt me. I briefly consider Tulo who is available here, but pass.



Round 2: I'm very surprised to see Miggy still on the board here. I very briefly think about Upton (who ends up slipping in the late 2nd), but I simply can't pass on the dual monster first basemen. Miggy goes into the CI.



Round 3: Youkilis is still there, has 3b eligibility, and there's a noticeable drop off after him at third. Brandon Phillips is also considered here, but I end up rounding out my corner infield spots with the Youk. I'm going to need to start drafting some speed asap.



Round 4: Phillips is still available, and I like the 20/20 he offers for a middle infielder. I snatch him up, briefly considering Reyes or Jeter. I will need more speed later.



Round 5: There was kind of a weird run on SPs that happened this round, and Aaron Hill was on the board at my pick, and I'm not a huge Hill fan but thought this was pretty good value. I expect 20+ homers and good counting stats out of him in my MI. I don't really consider anyone else once he fell to me.



Round 6: With most of my infield filled, it's time to start dropping in an outfielder. Markakis, McCutchen, and Choo are all available at this spot, and I decide on Markakis for some more power, a good average, and a smattering of speed (maybe he steals 10+?). In retrospect I might have chosen Choo had I done the draft again.



Round 7: Solidly ahead of my targets on power thanks to the dual first basemen, I consider snagging a starter here earlier than normal to anchor the staff. Vazquez and Ubaldo are all available, but I take Nolasco and his superb peripherals over them. He's been great in spring training and could be a real beast this year. If his luck last year in the first half had been normal, he'd be going in the 4th round this year.



Round 8: Abreu and Pence are both available, but I don't think they're spectacular value here so I actually continue to draft starting pitchers. Cole Hamels sits well here (Cain was also available), with what I hope is a bounce back season and strong peripherals and Ks. Playing for a good team should support his wins. Based on my need for steals I briefly consider Torii or CarGo.



Round 9: I'd like to get a shortstop at some point that can run a bit, and Jason Bartlett on the board at this pick fits the bill nicely. He finishes off my infield positions and I'm really ecstatic about the team so far. There's a huge closer run for the other teams in this round. I'll get to saves later, I think to myself.



Round 10: I'm still behind in steals, but my power totals are so spectacular that I take another starter. Billingsley is my pick, and with all those starts in NL West stadiums (plus playing for a good team), I hope he provides good numbers across the board.



Round 11: I don't really want to go too long without taking a catcher, or else I'll be forced to fill this position with batting average killers. Kurt Suzuki, who runs a little bit (bonus!) and posts a decent average is still here, so I snatch him up. I thought long and hard about this pick, because Brett Anderson was also available, and I really like his upside this year - he could be a monster.



Round 12: Anderson is still available! I absolutely need RP, but I can't pass him. I take Brett in about 5 seconds.



Round 13: With what seems like an absurd run on closers in this draft, I pass on perceived values like Shields, Napoli, and Dempster here and select Chad Qualls, who I think is a very strong closer. I breath a sigh of relief, I'm not completely closed out on closers.



Round 14: Napoli is still available, and I love the power he provides here. Dempster, McLouth, and LaRoche are all still available. Rajai Davis however was taken in the six picks between my 13 and 14, and I'm really pissed I didn't get him. I consider this a mistake, as there are still several closers on the board. I should have taken Rajai 13th, a closer 14th.



Round 15: I think for a long time before eventually settling on Chris Coghlan. He should provide a little of everything for me, and provide a strong batting average as well. In retrospect I'm not loving this pick, but none of the judys still available are real value here. I pass Ludwick and Jenks at this pick, who I consider.



Round 16: Needing some more speed, I take Johnny Damon. He's unspectacular but should provide that plus solid homers and runs hitting at the top of a strong offense.



Round 17: Another run of RPs on the turn just closed me out completely. Seriously? By the 16th round? This is nuts. I kind of get flustered, look at the guys available and take Drew Stubbs. He should provide me some steals. In my haste I forget completely about Jon Rauch, who I should have taken here. Way way too early for Rauch, but he was the only closer with a job at all still in the pool.



Round 18: With all the closers gone and me completely pissed, I take Franklin Morales a zillion picks ahead of where I would normally slot him, hoping to buy myself a few weeks with a second closer. I'm going to have to target some of my favorite middle relievers later, like Brandon League and Jason Motte. I also know I'm going to be working the FAAB pool hard this year on saves, which I kind of hate.



Round 19: Conor Jackson is still available, and I think he provides a nice bit of power and a little speed to finish off my OF positions.



Round 20: Stubbs is a bigger BA risk than I like to take, so I finish off the starting offense by selecting Ordonez as my Util. His power is in decline, but the BA should still play very well. I don't need the power at this point anyway.



Round 21: It's time to start finishing off the starting rotation, and I'm pretty pleased with the front four so far. I take C.J. Wilson a bit ahead of his ADP because I really like the strikeout potential he provides.



My last 9 picks in rapid fire succession:



Round 22: Josh Willingham. Should give some strong homer potential, though honestly that's not what I need.



Round 23: Colby Lewis. Love him as a sleeper SP this year. Rangers are gonna win games.



Round 24: Ryan Rowland-Smith. Hopeful for strong peripherals in a pitcher's park.



Round 25: Felipe Paulino. Awarded the 5th starter spot in Houston, could give above average K rates.



Round 26: Brad Ziegler. A bit out of line, but the news that Bailey walked off a mound with an injury flashed across the wire about 2 minutes before this pick. I considered the alternatives in the Oakland pen as well as my lack of any RPs, and thought Ziegler would be the choice if Bailey missed time. I can easily drop him.



Round 27: Kerry Wood. He's injured, and bad, but I need RP help pretty badly.



Round 28: Brandon Wood. A BA risk, but tons of upside. Big power possibility that plays as protection for my starting corners.



Round 29: Jason Motte. If I had to pick one "established" closer to falter in 2010, it would be Ryan Franklin. Motte could step in and do well.



Round 30: Gio Gonzalez. Hard to find starters with plus K potential this late in the draft, but Gio is one. Getting to play half of his starts in Oakland will help. I will use him very selectively.



Summary



I'm pretty pleased with this team. I'm generally not one that likes to chase saves as much as I'm going to have to, and I'll be chasing steals as well if either Stubbs or Bartlett don't come through in that category. But my power is legit, and steals/saves are the easiest things to find in the free agent pool. After my first 12 picks I was excited about this team. Once the draft finished, I was only lukewarm honestly.

[Navel Lint]

Nice write-up. Good power start and a couple of solid starters. It’s going to take a perfect season for someone to win the overall DP Championship.



Welcome to the NFBC, good luck this year.

[Dub]

I think you did yourself justice when you didn't stick to your strategy about not picking pitching until after 10 rounds.



I notice that the smart money drafts early pitching no matter what they may say. KOQ busted out Halliday at the turn in the Diamond league. I read that Childs drafted Greinke in the main. Like in real baseball pitching wins titles.



Check out this post:



http://nfbcboards.fanball.com/cgi-bin/u ... 005227;p=2



...and the draft board. This has a $10K entry fee.



[ April 04, 2010, 06:16 PM: Message edited by: Dub ]

[whipsaw]

Originally posted by Dub:

I think you did yourself justice when you didn't stick to your strategy about not picking pitching until after 10 rounds.



I notice that the smart money drafts early pitching no matter what they may say. KOQ busted out Halliday at the turn in the Diamond league. I read that Childs drafted Greinke in the main. Like in real baseball pitching wins titles.



Check out this post:



http://nfbcboards.fanball.com/cgi-bin/u ... 005227;p=2



...and the draft board. This has a $10K entry fee. I'd be the first to admit that these guys all know more about fantasy baseball than I do. That said, if my goal were to win a 15 team league, as opposed to a 500+ participant overall title, my strategy might change considerably. My movement into pitching was aided largely by the Fielder/Miggy start which I didn't expect to have available.