I had ankle/foot reconstruction surgery 2 1/2 weeks before the draft was to be held in STL and I took advantage of being off work and recovering by doing numerous mock drafts from various draft positions to prep. I would even go as far in these mocks as to draft players that would put me in a hole in CATs just so I could see if I could fix it later, and as it went along I made a list of players who I used to fix it in case I got into that specific bad catagory situation during the real draft. I did some without few SBs in the first 4 or 5 rounds, did some where I started in a batting average hole, and did some where I started off very light in the power CAT and then see if I could fix it late and still make it a respectable draft with solid projected numbers across the board.
I was very pleased when a friend texted me and told me I had pick 1 in my league for the Main Event. I then went into action and started doing mock drafts at pick one using the latest ADP. In my history of drafting I think there are 3 basic type of drafters, those who basically take the best value at their pick adjusted with what they already have and what CATs they are weak in up to that point. Then there is the "planner drafter" who plans out nearly every pick of his draft with some contingencies in place if the player they want at a particular pick is already gone, and then there is the drafter who does a mix of both. I have been doing NFBC since they started and my draft strategy has always been the planned out draft strategy in which I would never deviate from the player I had written down as my projected pick unless he was already gone regardless of who was on the board, no matter how much they had slipped. This type of draft style has good points and bad. The good thing about drafting like this is you can really good feel for your players/projections if you think you have the ultimate team picked out and it is a pretty stress free style. Now the bad here is you have to take all of your planned guys earlier than when they are projected to go on the ADP and especially early in the later rounds as the chances of somebody going much earlier than the ADP indicates comes into play because somebody may need to fix a week catagory or fill a position and select a player way early. I normally go into a draft knowing that I will get at least 25 of the guys I mapped out. This year I wanted to map my draft out but I also wanted to be more flexible so if a nice player slipped I could grab him up. So I went to work planning out my picks with contingecy plans at each one and a plan to start out with a high batting average in the early rounds and filling my infield slots while doing it. I kind of plan out my drafts backwards by identifying the players I like who will be there in the later rounds who I will take a little earlier than their ADP indicates so I know what positions/stat catagories I need to fill in the earlier rounds. I also wanted to draft more players with upside, you can plan out a draft and get great numbers but that may leave you taking guys with little or no upside to get to the projected numbers you want. I felt it was to get some young guys who might breakout or go with some players who were going of a bad year or two and "buy low". Here is my draft and my projections I used as a guide.
Pick 1. A. Pujols (1B) (.325 125 40 130 10) Nothing really needs to be said here. I never considered Hanley or AROD.
Pick 2. D. Pedroia (2B) (.305 110 15 70 20) Fits well with my plain to start off with a high batting average and getting my infield filled early.
Pick 3. P. Sandoval (3B) (.310 85 25 90 5) I knew Zimmerman would be gone so I really wanted Youklis here but he went right before my pick so I stuck to the plan and took another infielder with a high batting average. I think having a real nice average early, leaves open so many more options late in the draft for those unsexy lower batting avg players who have nice power numbers.
Pick 4. A. Lind (OF-1) (.295 95 30 110 2) I absolutely did not expect him to still be on the board at this pick, his ADP had him going in early 4th and not near the last pick of the 4th. Everybody was grabbing those SB guys and some pitching and he slipped. Knowing I was weak in SB at this point did not worry me much as I had a plan to remedy that later. If Lind had not slipped to me here I had planned on going with Choo. This did impactmy plan a bit because now I did not have the 20 bags from Choo I had planned for. I did feel all growns up though because I did deviate from my planned pick. I am still sitting very pretty with all of my picks having hit over .300 last year.
Pick 5. T. Hanson (SP-1) (16 wins 3.40/1.18 180K) Man I like this kid and the Braves as a whole to win a bunch of games. I would have taken Lester here but he was already gone. One thing I noticed going from the last ADP to the one before it was that starting pitchers were all going earlier on the lastest ADP. I knew I had to take one here or I could find myself without an ACE.
Pick 6. M. Cain (SP-2) (15 wins 3.45/1.19 180K) Man pitching is flying off even earlier than the ADP, I kind of expected it to happen so it was not a huge surprise, but still. I wanted one of Jiminez/Kershaw/Nolasco here but they were all gone. Seriously doubt he repeats, but he could and a little better offense behind him may help him get a few more wins. At this point I am hoping Hanson is the next coming of John Smoltz.
Pick 7. J. Bartlett (SS) (.300 100 10 65 30) He completes my primary infield positions and helps me get some SB of which I have few up to this point, and guess what, another guy who hit well over .300 last year who batting leadoff for the entire year may get a few more SB even though I only projected him for 30. If he had been gone I would have taken Andrus here early.
Pick 8. J. Pierre (OF-2) (.295 100 1 55 55) My targeted big SB guy. Took him a bit early but I love the CHW offense this year and Ozzie I expect will turn him loose. Another guy who hit .300 last year. So far I have 6 hitters who all hit over .300 last year and 3 who hit .320 or higher-I like it, the plan is going well so far.
Pick 9. B. Wagner (Closer-1) (3 Wins 40 Saves 2.35/1.05 75K) Like I said earlier, I love the Braves to win a bunch of games and Billy Wagz will be there to close them out. Another targeted pick.
Pick 10. T.Hoffman (Closer-2) I went ahead and took closers back to back at this turn. Had some other options here but ended up going with ole reliable so to speak--may need to handcuff him later just in case he runs out of gas. Man, I hope he does not run out of gas!
Pick 11. G. Floyd (SP-3) (15 wins 3.80/1.22 160K)Red rover red rover bring Gavin Floyd right over. Targeted for the best SP here and took Gavin over Dempster, Danks and a few others. Like the offense there alot to get him a good number of wins and his other numbers are solid. He had a nice increase in his K/9 and improved his WHIP last year.
Pick 12. J. Cantu (CI) (.280 85 25 105 5) I liked Cantu coming into the draft but he just did not fit into my plans where he was going ADP wise. He slipped quite a bit and I got him to my surprise. I had planned on taking Konerko a little bit later but was very happy getting Jorge thinking with his wrist probs behind him and thinking he gets his power back.
Pick 13. J. Sanchez (SP-4) (13 wins 3.50/1.25 195K) The one player I absolutely had to have in this draft. If it was not for his horrible 1st half he would have been going several rounds earlier. His 2nd half last year (3.37/1.10 110K in 98 innings) was ACE-like and has me drooling thinking this might be the year he puts it all together. I took him early according to the ADP but I felt like I was stealing him here.
Pick 14. J.Peralta (MI) (.270 70 20 80 2) Buying low here, I wanted him or Hardy here as bounceback picks who had done 20+ HR the 2 prior years and also use this position as a stat need filler by playing Peralta if I need power numbers or if my power numbers end up real good, put a SB guy I draft later in this spot if I need to.
Pick 15. H. Kuroda (SP-5) (13 wins 3.80/1.20 135K) Targeted pick I hope can get 190 innings in.
Pick 16. H. Matsui (DH) (.280 80 30 95 0) Unsexy pick but cleanup in LAA with all those rabbits seems like a money RBI slot to me--another targeted pick to get me good power numbers.
Pick 17. C. Young (OF-3) (.240 75 20 80 15) Planned upside pick--just think how much value he will have to my squad if he can revert back to 30/30 or even 25/25. My average is so high I can take a few guys like this and still be real good in that catagory. He is critical and could make a good squad a great one for me if it clicks for him.
Pick 20. S. Marcum (SP-6) (12 wins 3.60/1.25 155K) The 2nd guy I absolutely had to have. Planned pick I grabbed a little bit early. I saw him pitch in Spring Training and he has fully recovered from TJ surgery. Ended up 2008 with a 3.39/1.19 before getting hurt. That does not tell the whole story though as he was around 2.80/1.00 before he went on the 15 day DL and while doing rehab starts they called him back up before he was ready and he got pounded for a few starts before he went out for good. My pick for AL comeback player of the year.
Pick 19. J. Willingham (OF-4) (.260 75 28 90 5) Early last year he was in an OF rotation, now he is locked in the starting lineup and batting 5th. My huge average makes this pick ez to take. Another planned pick.
Pick 20. J.Buck (C-1) (.245 50 15 60 0) Catchers were going fast so I ended up with Buck here. Just wanted to get a 15-20 HR bat here and not concerned too much about the batting avg. He has a fulltime job and could get me 20 bombs. I hate drafting catchers early, not sure why but I always draft them late.
Pick 21. M.Byrd (OF-5) (.280 85 20 95 8) What is not to like with this, another unsexy pick who is hitting #5 in CHC.
Pick 22. A. Kennedy (bench) My least favorite pick but he does qualify at 3B and 2B which is nice for a bench player. He also could work in that MI stat need situation with Peralta as he does run some (20 SB last year). I already wish I could have a do-over here and grab a my 2nd catcher.
Pick 23. S.Smith (bench) I wanted a few upside guys late and I think he could really be a monster if Hawpe or one of the other COL OF gets traded.
Pick 24. A. Iwamura (Bench) Possible 20-25 SB guy who could work in that MI rotation with Peralta
Pick 25. G. Laird (C-2) (.245 50 6 45 5) My next to least fav pick. I will see how he starts out but I may be FAAB shopping here. There jsut was nothing left by now. Maybe I get a breakout and he gets me 10 HR
Pick 26. V. Padilla (SP-7) (14 wins 4.20/1.30 135K) Pitching in LAD should help and he was nice after he arrived last year so I took a shot with him to use as a matchup pitcher with my bench SPs.
I sure waited long enough to get my 7th SP huh?
Pick 27. R.Raburn (Bench) Just another player I drafted who if gets a fulltime job could put up some nice numbers.
Pick 28. C. Volstad (Bench) Grabbed him to use as a matchup SP for my 7th SP slot. He does have some upside too.
Pick 29. R. Vandenhurk (Bench) Drafted hoping it clicks for him this year as he has big K potential as I hope he gets promoted back to the bigs and not at the expense of Volstad.
Pick 30. Ike Davis (Bench) I drafted the first weekend when Ike was still being considered for the NYM 1B job. Well, he is now in the minors and I am hoping another injury or poor play will give him a shot. If something interesting pops up on the waiver wire he will be gone.
I am happy with my team, myself and a few friends figured the numbers look solid and batting average is exceptional. I really need Pierre to get those SB or I will be screwed in that CAT. If Sanchez and Marcum do what I think they will do, my pitching has the possibility of being rock solid.
