City Advantage

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 4:11 am

I've heard people say (a number of times) that there will be an advantage to drafting in Chicago or NYC because 'all the experts are in Vegas' or whatever rationale.

Does anyone truly believe the odds of winning are better in any one city over another?

To me, whatever modestly more known gamers are in Vegas due to the FSTA conference is countered by the fact that ... well, it's VEGAS and hardly the best place to focus on fantasy games. Let's pretend that Vegas owners are 3% better than everyone else (who knows the real answer? More likely it's 3% WORSE, but just pretend here...) Now add in the excess distractions are clearly harder to deal with in Vegas than the other cities combined!

You show up hungover, show girl'd out and gambling highs or lows and it seems like at least an equalizer.

Thoughts on city-advantage?

Dave

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 4:50 am

i'm not sure how this factors in the discussion, but the sheep-o-meter says:

30% Chicago sheep

25% NY Sheep

25% Vegas Sheep

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 4:55 am

I figure Chicago has an advantage because I'm going to be there running the show.

JAR · Post by **JAR** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 5:52 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

i'm not sure how this factors in the discussion, but the sheep-o-meter says:

30% Chicago sheep

25% NY Sheep

25% Vegas Sheep I'll be in Chi-town.. raise that sheep factor a bit.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 6:05 am

Why would any city be an advantage if there is only 1 overall winner?

You may need an algebra whiz to figure this out. Let's say you are able to draft a better team because there are more people in your city that don't have a clue, so there is a greater chance that some of these "clueless" will be in your league (helping you).

Maybe using GG's sheep-o-meter percentages will help figure this out.

And when the first couple of rounds have past and you don't know who the clueless are, then guess what, like poker, you da 1.

JAR · Post by **JAR** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 7:16 am

Originally posted by coops:

And when the first couple of rounds have past and you don't know who the clueless are, then guess what, like poker, you da 1. I hate to be the one to break it to you. But if you evaluating any GM's competency after 2 rounds, then you are probably the sheep

I'd say round 10 is where the men start to separate from the boys.

Evil Empire · Post by **Evil Empire** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 7:32 am

The experts are in Vegas, huh? What makes them experts? They are drafting from the same 450 players that we are. The experts at Rotowire.com finished 8th in Chicago 3, 125th overall and the experts at Rotoworld.com finished 9th in New York 4, 134th overall. Not very expert like! Hope your not using their projections!

Ken · Post by **Ken** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 8:10 am

A couple things I noticed this year is that the industry guys signed up a lot earlier this year and most but not all are in Vegas. I think they had fun last year and realized doing well in this could be a boom to their business and something tells me they will be even more prepared this year than last.

They really don't have much of an advantage against any good gamer at draft time as most if not all of what they know is out there in cyber space for anyone willing to search and work. I do think they have a slight advantage during the season in that they have access to wire reports and minor league transactions before we do as most of us get the info from their sites.

Getting in a league with a couple of these guys is certainly not to your advantage as player won't slide by them very often which is a key to winning more than just your league. Which brings us to the real point of the question.

Which city is easiest to luck into a league full of sheep where you can slaughter the lambs and feast upon their carcasses?

Let's look at each city,

Chicago - Fewest industry guys but also fewest leagues and there are a couple really good gamers there and if one of them gets isolated in a league by himself with mostly first year players it could be all over.

New York - Only a couple industry guys but a lot of returning players and a strong baseball and minor league area. I don't think this years winner comes from New York.

Las Vegas - Lots of industry guys but also the most leagues and the industry guys are as likely to all get in one league as they are to be spread out so I like the odds that one of those Vegas leagues will be void of experts and full of drunks and first year players trying offbeat strategies and some lucky schmo will end up smack in the middle of them and lull them to sleep singing "We are poor little lambs who've lost our way, baa baaa baaaa."

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 8:18 am

Originally posted by GCA73:

The experts are in Vegas, huh? What makes them experts? They are drafting from the same 450 players that we are. The experts at Rotowire.com finished 8th in Chicago 3, 125th overall and the experts at Rotoworld.com finished 9th in New York 4, 134th overall. Not very expert like! Hope your not using their projections!

The term 'expert' is delicate, but let's just say 'people who make part or all of their living at fantasy games' ? The FSTA conference is in Vegas, and so hundreds of 'industry guys' will be in Vegas. It's not any particular compliment nor any fear factor. The experts have a strong base of information available... doesn't mean they use it or use it correctly. Injuries, etc., etc. - by no means am I giving a supposed 'expert' any undue credit. Just presenting the argument as I've heard it presented to me.

I can win or lose from any city and any position

Dyv

Evil Empire · Post by **Evil Empire** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 8:37 am

2004 League NFBC Champ

2004 League NFFC Champ

UFS is Da Man

What does this mean?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 8:38 am

Certainly I believe the levels of knowledge and committment would be the same in all three. As we "said" last year, anyone putting down $650, or $1,250, or $5,000 is very serious about their fantasy baseball.

The only advantage I would see out of Chicago or New York is you may get a higher level of local participants that might place a premium on maybe not so worthy players on the Cubs/Sox or Mets/Yanks. Being from Georgia, that means some of my CLEARLY deserving Braves (or other teams) might slip a little into the bargain round category.

I will let you know how it turns out. I drafted in Vegas last year and will be in Chicago this year.

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 8:51 am

Originally posted by JAR:

I hate to be the one to break it to you. But if you evaluating any GM's competency after 2 rounds, then you are probably the sheep

I'd say round 10 is where the men start to separate from the boys. [/QB]JAR, you might have something there. I've only done auctions in the past so I didn't stop to consider that any bozo can take Roto Reuter's Mock Draft article and get through the first few rounds. In auctions, you know early who are the men and who are the boys.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 9:26 am

Originally posted by GCA73:

quote: 2004 League NFBC Champ

2004 League NFFC Champ

UFS is Da Man

What does this mean? [/QUOTE]Which part?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 9:37 am

Originally posted by Dyv:

I've heard people say (a number of times) that there will be an advantage to drafting in Chicago or NYC because 'all the experts are in Vegas' or whatever rationale.

Does anyone truly believe the odds of winning are better in any one city over another?

To me, whatever modestly more known gamers are in Vegas due to the FSTA conference is countered by the fact that ... well, it's VEGAS and hardly the best place to focus on fantasy games. Let's pretend that Vegas owners are 3% better than everyone else (who knows the real answer? More likely it's 3% WORSE, but just pretend here...) Now add in the excess distractions are clearly harder to deal with in Vegas than the other cities combined!

You show up hungover, show girl'd out and gambling highs or lows and it seems like at least an equalizer.

Thoughts on city-advantage?

Dave The analysis that I ran around mid-year last year looked at lge quality measured by variance among teams within leagues and total lge stats versus other total lge stats. The conclusion was that Vegas, on both counts, had higher quality teams/leagues, which would make it harder to win from those lges.

NY and Chicago were very close to each other but clearly worse than Vegas.

My "theory" for Vegas' top-to-bottom quality is not the number of experts, but the likely commitment level to fly to Vegas versus driving across town.

[ February 16, 2005, 03:37 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 9:45 am

if the questions is, "what city will the overall winner come from?" the answer is simple...whatever city i choose to go to. thanks.

[ February 16, 2005, 03:46 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 10:00 am

I actually did some analysis of the drafts last year based on my projected values and two things stood out. 1) the winner's league and well as a few others, had some real 'nutters' (ie 4 closers in the first 10 rounds); and 2) one of the Vegas leagues (I think either 4 or 5) had one of the most competitive drafts (that doesn't mean the standings resulted that way).

As much as unprepared drafters/managers can make things real easy for you, they can also do something real stupid and take someone (whom you worked your draft) far ealier than they should have gone.

My view is you have just as much chance of being lucky with the league you get placed in, regardless of location, as you do of being unlucky. The only way to get around something like that is to rank previous year players and spread them out amongst each of the leagues (of course they still have choice of location prior).

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 10:10 am

Here's a question: Position Scarcity & Depth as part of your draft strategy - Overrated or Underrated?

I say way overrated! Why pass on say a higher rated 1B in round 6 for say a relatively lower rated C, where in round 15 you draft the other when they more than likley are more similarly rated? For example, 1B value in round #6 = 20 + C in round #15 = 5, thus totally 25 points....and the C in round #6 = 12.5 and the 1B in round #15 = 7, thus 19.5 points....you just gave up 5.5 points of value to grab a player due to scarcity. the same could be said on passing up the 1B in round #6, because you belive there is depth at the position...well not if your drfating a 1B who is worth 10 points in round 9, when othe rplayers available are worth more. Again you gave away points.

Balticsquids · Post by **Balticsquids** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 10:11 am

If walla walla is drafting in Vegas, id call that far from the experts drafting place....besides its 85 percent luck

Ken · Post by **Ken** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 10:12 am

Geico, shouldn't you be learning to do the robot or traveling across country to win over the 3% of unsatisfied customers or something?

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 10:46 am

Originally posted by Ken:

Geico, shouldn't you be learning to do the robot or traveling across country to win over the 3% of unsatisfied customers or something? my robots will be in place. they will be watching you. looking for you to make that draft day mistake. you know you will. the pressure will get to you. maybe not in round 1 or round 2, but it'll get ya. you won't know where we are, but i'll know where you are. makes it fun that way.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 12:58 pm

Originally posted by nydownunder:

Here's a question: Position Scarcity & Depth as part of your draft strategy - Overrated or Underrated?

I say way overrated! Why pass on say a higher rated 1B in round 6 for say a relatively lower rated C, where in round 15 you draft the other when they more than likley are more similarly rated? For example, 1B value in round #6 = 20 + C in round #15 = 5, thus totally 25 points....and the C in round #6 = 12.5 and the 1B in round #15 = 7, thus 19.5 points....you just gave up 5.5 points of value to grab a player due to scarcity. the same could be said on passing up the 1B in round #6, because you belive there is depth at the position...well not if your drfating a 1B who is worth 10 points in round 9, when othe rplayers available are worth more. Again you gave away points. Draft whatever way you want...

Bandit · Post by **Bandit** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 2:18 pm

My pappy's pappy said "If'n there was consenseus we'd all agree" Maybe that was Yogi Berra?

But in the spirit of the thread, from Cloe's 2005 handbook, (the 18th, 19th and 20th are a wash)

Mars and Jupiter's 3rd moon are aligned in the Western Sky leading to confusion and denial. (of course this is scaled from Miller Lite drinkers to Bourbon infectionato's)

The corn fields will be bending in the Midwest as

the Central Sky is not kind to those born on a Tuesday, Friday or Saturday in odd number years. (as a side note the farmers almanac says 5" snow)

Those in New York will not see the sky, so Cloe, well actually her apprentice, has made it simple. "The third window from the left with the lights out on the fourteenth floor aligns with the checkered building and the hot dog vendor".

So I for one think, those who eat a good chili dog in New York will do well.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 2:58 pm

Dyv

...drafting in NY certainly helped you go on to win the weakest league in the competition. How else could someone have recovered from some of those picks!?!?!

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Wed Feb 16, 2005 3:06 pm

Originally posted by nydownunder:

Dyv

...drafting in NY certainly helped you go on to win the weakest league in the competition. How else could someone have recovered from some of those picks!?!?! Truth is that it was the 2nd weakest league according to overall points produced and I definitely drafted in Vegas. I won with my in-season pick ups, not my draft. No question about it.

We had a dead team in NY5 that finished 4th or 5th in the league.

Dyv