Main Event Thoughts about my Team!
Posted: Mon Apr 26, 2010 10:53 am
Week Three Results – Another disturbing weekend collapse, yet I am still not doing too bad. Even as late as Saturday, I am in first place in my league and 7th overall. Enter Mr.’s Bush and Frasor, good-bye lead. Still I have had some luck. Carlos Guillen has been giving me much needed BA, but little in the way of counting stats. He gets injured and I hold my breath and put in Andruw Jones. He has a very nice weekend thanks to the two bombs on Friday. The combination of the two allowed me to get a .400 BA with two home runs, two stolen bases, four runs and five RBI’s out of what historically has been the toughest spot for me to get consistent results. Jones may hold onto the spot and he will stay on my roster for a little while, especially now that he only needs one more game in the OF to be eligible there. What has not worked out for me this past week at all are my replacement MI’s Iwamura and Valbuena. I had hoped to see if Iwamura was running at all early, but he has not either due to hidden injury or McCutchen has made anyone else having to run ancillary. There is not much on the waiver wirers, but I need to upgrade there. Tejada is back and hopefully Roberts will be soon, too, though it will not be next week.
I basically hit or exceeded all of my offensive targets for the week (and YTD for that matter) except BA. As a happy matter of fact, I am up a week on my stolen base targets even with Victorino equaling Joey Votto’s lofty totals, without the benefit of Brian Roberts, and with Kemp not having to steal the bases his homeruns have covered. As to power for the year, I have certainly benefited from the hot starts of Either and Kemp, though I have gotten at least three homeruns already from five other players/positions. I like that kind of depth. Certainly my three Dodgers (I have Furcal) and Willingham have been carrying my team, but by and large, despite my early success, I have many players (A. Rameriz, Roberts, Victorino) who are, for one reason or another, not producing.
As to Pitching, what a Jekyll/Hyde week. In his first start of the week, Bush made me look like a genius. In his second start, I am the goat. Cook was likewise hot/cold and Frasor just imploded, especially Sunday. I do not know if Gregg will hold the closer spot in Toronto all year, but Frasor does not look to challenge him any time soon. Garza had a rough start, but given his first three starts of the year, he was due a mulligan. Danks was GOLD in two starts and Weaver and Shields were both quality. Derek Lowe did not produce, but his turn-around is due. In his last start against the Phillies, he was getting hit hard by lofty types like Greg Dobbs, then seemed to settle down. Several runs scored on Prado’s error in the third and you never give Philly extra chances. Too much bad luck and too many pitches doomed Lowe.
For the year, Wins for the year are a week ahead. This is good news, but when I looked at the overall, something like 37 teams are within three wins of the top spot. I am in that group with FOUR other owners in my league. Talk about your competition. All I can do is keep chugging along. I am ahead a half a week in K’s and ERA is just slightly higher than my target. I need to do some work on WHIP, which was below target until Sunday. My overriding Pitching concern is Saves. Soria has five, though he is having to go more than an inning to get them. Frasor has just exploded, so I am hot on the waiver wire looking for the next warm body with any chance to close.
Week Three Free Agents – With both Smoak and Ike Davis available in my league, I know I would have to bid big to try and get those guys. Either would be a nice addition (though I am not ready to anoint them the next big thing yet) to my team, especially as insurance for Gordon. I bid $256 for Smoak with a contingency bid of $189 for Davis. Not even in the ballpark. So I guess Garrett Atkins stays on my team one more week. Yeehawwwww!
I just dropped Frasor like a bad habit. He may be back sometime during the season, but after his Sunday meltdown, he is a long way from proving he can help. I place a bid ($11 with a long line of contingencies) on good old Carlos Villanueva. I do not see him closing any time soon even if Hoffman gets hurt, though even a left-hander like him brings more to the table than righties like Coffey and Hawkins.
I have given up on Iwamura. Christian Guzman was available in my league and Washington appears to play him somewhere every day. His dual eligibility (SS/2B) is a plus even if he will be little more than empty BA (if I am lucky). When Roberts comes back, either he or Valbuena (also SS/2B eligible) will go.
Finally, my affinity for left handed starters with good strike-out potential and are also extreme groundballers has jumped me, even if this particular pitcher has never put it together in the majors. Since I feel Kenshin Kawakami has very limited upside, I dropped him for Brett Cecil, whom I bid $21 for. Toronto is actually playing pretty good ball, but I do not think they have a chance to beat anyone in their division regularly except Baltimore. With any luck, Toronto will show-case him and trade him to the friendly confines of a NL contender with a SP need.
Week Four Plans – Matthew Sheppard has the pitching staff in my league to beat. He has nearly every pitching point available and because of this he is currently in second place in my league. Steven Jupinka jumped from third to first on Sunday and I waved at him as he went by. His team is nice and balanced and will be a contender all year. Though it is still VERY early, three teams right now are setting the pace. Offensively I hope to keep doing what has been doing, only with a few more points in BA from types like AmRam, Victorino, and whomever I piece together at MI. Tejada is actually not hitting all that bad, and if the Orioles would just leave him in the meat spots, his counting stats will catch up. If Gordon falters, Tejada could end up being an acceptable CM for me if I can find a decent SS or one of my bench boys starts to produce. Roberts is still weeks away from playing, so I will keep plugging guys in there. This week it will be Guzman. My catchers are doing OK, though Baker has shown he still cannot hit lefthanders with regularity. Soto had a real nice week and hopefully he will keep it going as Chicago has six games of home cooking. My OF and UT are set, though Willingham faded last week (he did have two SB last week and now has four for the year, which is equal to all of his output in that regard in 2009). I want to keep racking up counting stats and hope the BA turns around before it is too late to budge.
My Big Four SP so far have exceeded expectations and I hope they continue. Garza (8th round), Shields (9th), Weaver (11th) and Danks (15th) are a combined 10 Wins in 16 starts with a 2.560 ERA and 1.101 WHIP. They have 99 K’s so far and are better than three to one strike out to walk ratio while giving up hits in only 82% of IP but striking out a batter on an average of 91% of IP. I will put them straight up with just about any other starting four, no matter what the investment on draft day was.
Soria has been and will continue to do well, so five of my pitching slots are ok. But we have to start nine, right? Lowe is on the road at St. Louis before coming home to face Houston. I am going to start him and hope Pujols and Holiday get popcorn dust in their eyes. I still see Lowe producing for my team very well in the long run as a Number 5 starter (or Number Six when Webb comes back in a month). Cook is on the road at San Francisco and hopefully he can rework the magic of his last start.
Cecil is at home versus Boston, Bonderman has two, including one in Texas, and Bush is at San Diego. I get to pick at least one of these gas-cans and maybe two if I do not plug Villanueva in my 9th slot. Given the park and although the Padres are playing good ball, I am probably going to go with Bush, who has had three good to decent starts compared to one (very) bad one. The bad one was ruined by the long-ball, so maybe Petco will be the answer.
Besides Lowe at St. Louis, my next most dangerous venue is Danks going into New York to play the other team besides the Mets that play in New York. I have several starts against teams like Houston, Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland so with a very little bit of luck, I can get back some of my ERA and WHIP erosion from last Sunday.
Anyway, it's a plan.
[ April 26, 2010, 05:03 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
I basically hit or exceeded all of my offensive targets for the week (and YTD for that matter) except BA. As a happy matter of fact, I am up a week on my stolen base targets even with Victorino equaling Joey Votto’s lofty totals, without the benefit of Brian Roberts, and with Kemp not having to steal the bases his homeruns have covered. As to power for the year, I have certainly benefited from the hot starts of Either and Kemp, though I have gotten at least three homeruns already from five other players/positions. I like that kind of depth. Certainly my three Dodgers (I have Furcal) and Willingham have been carrying my team, but by and large, despite my early success, I have many players (A. Rameriz, Roberts, Victorino) who are, for one reason or another, not producing.
As to Pitching, what a Jekyll/Hyde week. In his first start of the week, Bush made me look like a genius. In his second start, I am the goat. Cook was likewise hot/cold and Frasor just imploded, especially Sunday. I do not know if Gregg will hold the closer spot in Toronto all year, but Frasor does not look to challenge him any time soon. Garza had a rough start, but given his first three starts of the year, he was due a mulligan. Danks was GOLD in two starts and Weaver and Shields were both quality. Derek Lowe did not produce, but his turn-around is due. In his last start against the Phillies, he was getting hit hard by lofty types like Greg Dobbs, then seemed to settle down. Several runs scored on Prado’s error in the third and you never give Philly extra chances. Too much bad luck and too many pitches doomed Lowe.
For the year, Wins for the year are a week ahead. This is good news, but when I looked at the overall, something like 37 teams are within three wins of the top spot. I am in that group with FOUR other owners in my league. Talk about your competition. All I can do is keep chugging along. I am ahead a half a week in K’s and ERA is just slightly higher than my target. I need to do some work on WHIP, which was below target until Sunday. My overriding Pitching concern is Saves. Soria has five, though he is having to go more than an inning to get them. Frasor has just exploded, so I am hot on the waiver wire looking for the next warm body with any chance to close.
Week Three Free Agents – With both Smoak and Ike Davis available in my league, I know I would have to bid big to try and get those guys. Either would be a nice addition (though I am not ready to anoint them the next big thing yet) to my team, especially as insurance for Gordon. I bid $256 for Smoak with a contingency bid of $189 for Davis. Not even in the ballpark. So I guess Garrett Atkins stays on my team one more week. Yeehawwwww!
I just dropped Frasor like a bad habit. He may be back sometime during the season, but after his Sunday meltdown, he is a long way from proving he can help. I place a bid ($11 with a long line of contingencies) on good old Carlos Villanueva. I do not see him closing any time soon even if Hoffman gets hurt, though even a left-hander like him brings more to the table than righties like Coffey and Hawkins.
I have given up on Iwamura. Christian Guzman was available in my league and Washington appears to play him somewhere every day. His dual eligibility (SS/2B) is a plus even if he will be little more than empty BA (if I am lucky). When Roberts comes back, either he or Valbuena (also SS/2B eligible) will go.
Finally, my affinity for left handed starters with good strike-out potential and are also extreme groundballers has jumped me, even if this particular pitcher has never put it together in the majors. Since I feel Kenshin Kawakami has very limited upside, I dropped him for Brett Cecil, whom I bid $21 for. Toronto is actually playing pretty good ball, but I do not think they have a chance to beat anyone in their division regularly except Baltimore. With any luck, Toronto will show-case him and trade him to the friendly confines of a NL contender with a SP need.
Week Four Plans – Matthew Sheppard has the pitching staff in my league to beat. He has nearly every pitching point available and because of this he is currently in second place in my league. Steven Jupinka jumped from third to first on Sunday and I waved at him as he went by. His team is nice and balanced and will be a contender all year. Though it is still VERY early, three teams right now are setting the pace. Offensively I hope to keep doing what has been doing, only with a few more points in BA from types like AmRam, Victorino, and whomever I piece together at MI. Tejada is actually not hitting all that bad, and if the Orioles would just leave him in the meat spots, his counting stats will catch up. If Gordon falters, Tejada could end up being an acceptable CM for me if I can find a decent SS or one of my bench boys starts to produce. Roberts is still weeks away from playing, so I will keep plugging guys in there. This week it will be Guzman. My catchers are doing OK, though Baker has shown he still cannot hit lefthanders with regularity. Soto had a real nice week and hopefully he will keep it going as Chicago has six games of home cooking. My OF and UT are set, though Willingham faded last week (he did have two SB last week and now has four for the year, which is equal to all of his output in that regard in 2009). I want to keep racking up counting stats and hope the BA turns around before it is too late to budge.
My Big Four SP so far have exceeded expectations and I hope they continue. Garza (8th round), Shields (9th), Weaver (11th) and Danks (15th) are a combined 10 Wins in 16 starts with a 2.560 ERA and 1.101 WHIP. They have 99 K’s so far and are better than three to one strike out to walk ratio while giving up hits in only 82% of IP but striking out a batter on an average of 91% of IP. I will put them straight up with just about any other starting four, no matter what the investment on draft day was.
Soria has been and will continue to do well, so five of my pitching slots are ok. But we have to start nine, right? Lowe is on the road at St. Louis before coming home to face Houston. I am going to start him and hope Pujols and Holiday get popcorn dust in their eyes. I still see Lowe producing for my team very well in the long run as a Number 5 starter (or Number Six when Webb comes back in a month). Cook is on the road at San Francisco and hopefully he can rework the magic of his last start.
Cecil is at home versus Boston, Bonderman has two, including one in Texas, and Bush is at San Diego. I get to pick at least one of these gas-cans and maybe two if I do not plug Villanueva in my 9th slot. Given the park and although the Padres are playing good ball, I am probably going to go with Bush, who has had three good to decent starts compared to one (very) bad one. The bad one was ruined by the long-ball, so maybe Petco will be the answer.
Besides Lowe at St. Louis, my next most dangerous venue is Danks going into New York to play the other team besides the Mets that play in New York. I have several starts against teams like Houston, Kansas City, Oakland, and Cleveland so with a very little bit of luck, I can get back some of my ERA and WHIP erosion from last Sunday.
Anyway, it's a plan.
[ April 26, 2010, 05:03 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
