Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

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Edwards Kings
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Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 10, 2010 5:16 am

Random Thoughts – In general, a big correction is coming. Not just for my team either. In my league, only two teams have a team BA over 0.270. Since we began this little journey in 2004, we have had three years where the 80% point getter in the Overall has had a BA below 0.280, but just barely. This will probably be one of those years, but the low BA’s I see now are just ridiculous. And if BA’s go up, ERA and WHIP will be rising, too. I plan to plan accordingly.



Week Five Results – My team had a good week pitching, although I did not pick up a single save. We had a lot of starts against the likes of Oakland (though going against Oakland did not do Shields much good last night), Seattle, Cleveland and San Diego. Except for Cook, every single one of my starters averaged two earned runs or less in each start. Two of my starters gave up zero earned runs. One was Jared Weaver (good news) and one was Bonderman (not so good news). Fortune smiled as Bonderman’s abysmal start against Cleveland was washed out. Both he and Cook are ripe for the FA pool. I have been very fortunate thus far to have at least four wins in each week of the season so far. I need it as in my league we still have five teams with at least 23 wins. I have also had at least 50 K’s in each week even though I have not used more than seven starters in any one week. With the likes of Cook and Lowe having been on my team, that means my top four guys have been lights out, and they really have. Right now for the year, Garza, Shields, Weaver and Danks have had a combined 26 starts, generated 16 wins, 169 K’s with a 3.7 K/BB ratio, a 2.478 ERA and a 1.147 WHIP. These guys are good, but they are not that good. A correction here is coming unless I can guess right as to when the blow-ups will occur, a talent I have yet to master. I like my pick up of Cecil, but again I am dancing with the devil having three pitchers in the AL East. Lowe has had poor results, but I am still optimistic that a turn-around is coming. He is still getting grounders and his is still throwing that sinker. When the weather warms, so will he. In short, my SP looks more than serviceable, especially if Webb (yes, I am still burning a roster spot on him) can come back near form.



Getting no saves this week is a serious problem personified. Soria had too few opportunities and blew one he did. I need to find another save source or just go with eight starters pretty soon.



I ended up with 291 AB last week, which is pretty much right on my target of at least 7,500 for the year. I mention it only because six of my guys had less than 20 AB for the week. My offense was pretty much carried by Either, Votto, and Willingham, though Josh only had 17 AB. Outside of Votto, my middle and corner spots are disasters. AmRam is still hitting cans of corn. Guzman hit for average, but was pretty empty in part time play. Valbuena was exceedingly inept and I have about given up on him. Still, I was able to hit or very nearly hit all my offensive targets except BA. More importantly, for the year, I am at or ahead of three of four counting stats. I am short runs and am losing ground on SB, but with Furcal and Roberts still out (whom I had hoped would be my primary two lead-off men generating runs scored and steals) this is to be expected. My reserves are not picking up the slack at all. Furcal should be back this next weekend, and that will help.



Week Six Free Agents – I do not like to make wholesale changes in my team, but this week was a busy one for me as I knew I would end up with three new players. With several “opportunities” presenting themselves in the MI spots this past week, I knew I could pick up some help. Starlin Castro, for one, would be a nice addition. However, my best estimate was it would take at least a $350 bid to get him and I just do not see that kind of value, no matter how much I need some help up the middle. Fortunately, there were some other options as my $200+ dollar bid was not even the bridesmaid. My second choice was Mike Aviles. I placed a decent bid on him of $31 (I actually got Aviles in the Auction League for about the same bid), but lost to KJ Duke who (IMHO) overpaid with a bid of something like $135. Can’t question KJ’s prowess as he just passed me in our league, but I would not be surprised if the $135 was more a blocking bid than a need on his team. Alls fair in fantasy baseball and I am the loser on this one whatever the strategy. ;) I ended up with Omar Infante (a.k.a. Bobby Cox Jr. for $19) who should still be getting regular playing time and went 3 for 4 yesterday out of the lead-off spot. With a little luck, Omar will stick in that spot for a while. I dropped Valbuena, whom I will still track, but clearly wasn’t helping my team.



Likewise, I am pretty fed up with Cook and Bonderman. Their two starts last week in San Diego and Cleveland were disasters. If they cannot succeed against those two teams, I just cannot trust them. So, they have been dropped in favor of two other pitchers. I lost out on my bid for a red-hot Scott Olsen ($24), but picked up Sergio Mitre, NYY, and hope his one start this week against the Tigers goes ok. I also picked up JJ Putz, hoping he gets the ball in Chicago rather than the left-handed Thornton if Jenks is sent to the fat farm.



Week Six Planning – Offense is still pretty easy. If you are healthy and still in the show, you are in. I should have more options next week as Furcal comes back and Guillen should not be too far behind. Alex Gordon is still on my bench, but if I see someone I really want, he could be gone. Roberts scares me as I just do not know when he will be back. Right now I have him as being too potentially valuable to drop, so he sits like a lump of coal on my bench.



This could be a challenging week for pitching as my cream-puff match-ups last week are history. I am going to struggle to get eight starts. My top four will go, of course. Cecil gets Texas, but in Toronto which hopefully is a LITTLE better. I will start Mitre at Detroit against Dontrelle Willis. That leaves me with seven starts and three spots remaining. I have, since I dropped both Bonderman and Cook, only one healthy SP on my bench in Lowe. Do I trust him at Milwaukee? He has only seen the Brewers three times (twice in Miller Park) total in 2008 and 2009 and fared fairly well against them. He was pitching better then. I will make the call sometime today, but odds are I am going with three relievers (Soria, Villanueva, and Putz?)
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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NorCalAtlFan
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Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

Post by NorCalAtlFan » Mon May 10, 2010 7:40 am

nice write up, per usual. but give up on lowe!!! i'm a braves fan too, but lowe is garbage. don't let him keep you from greatness:P

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Edwards Kings
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Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 10, 2010 10:50 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

nice write up, per usual. but give up on lowe!!! i'm a braves fan too, but lowe is garbage. don't let him keep you from greatness:P I may be hard headed, but not yet. At least, not until there is something worthy of note on the waiver wire rather than the fourth or fifth starters in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Houston or Baltimore.



At least I cut Kawakami some time back, so I am not an absolute homer! :D
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Edwards Kings
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Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed May 12, 2010 11:13 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

nice write up, per usual. but give up on lowe!!! i'm a braves fan too, but lowe is garbage. don't let him keep you from greatness:P I may be hard headed, but not yet. At least, not until there is something worthy of note on the waiver wire rather than the fourth or fifth starters in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Houston or Baltimore.



At least I cut Kawakami some time back, so I am not an absolute homer! :D
[/QUOTE]And of course he has a nice start the week I sit his butt down!
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

Post by NorCalAtlFan » Wed May 12, 2010 11:21 am

lol. of course. though he was lucky to get away with only allowing 2 er. he very nearly could have had a 5-6 spot thrown on him. though as a braves fan, i'll take it. still think you need to cut him though:P

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Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

Post by eddiejag » Wed May 12, 2010 12:37 pm

Nice read Wayne. I thought your bids on Aviles and Olsen were low.Olsen has been really good and could have been a big help and im the biggest Aviles fan in fantasy having him in like 10 or 11 of my 14 leagues.I HAD him in 2 auctions and grabbed him the week before for a dollar in 3 leagues.I also picked up Putz in a few leagues hoping for the closer shot it was only 2 years ago he was a top 3 closer off the boards in drafts.I wish i bid a little higher on Contreras as i think he could be a sleeper for saves.I hope you didnt play Villanueva as he's given up 6 run's this week already, OUCH.I also think Roberts is atleast a month away and he is killing teams who took him in rounds 4 to 5.I also hope ManRam gets it going soon as he's killing me.

GOOD LUCK . :cool:
EDWARD J GILLIS

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Post by KJ Duke » Wed May 12, 2010 12:56 pm

Hey Wayne, I knew I'd be overbidding for Aviles in most of my leagues, but mission accomplished as I picked him in all 4 of my big lges where he was available. In 3 of the 4 the runner-up was in the 30-50 range, in one it was 115. Not knowing where the one big bid could be (which would've been a reasonable expectation), I wanted him in all leagues and bid accordingly. I'll go on record here and say he outperforms Starlin this year at 1/3rd of the cost.



That said, you're right I didn't need a MI Zobrist, Beckham and Wigginton at 2b and Alex Gonzalez, hopeful to be back soon Rollins and now Aviles at SS. But there isn't much available in terms of quality hitters in our league, Beckham has stunk it up and I only have one healthy bench hitter this week, so I didn't mind paying up for depth.



Looks like a fun race for the title in this league with Quahogs, myself and your team battling it out at the top for now and tons of quality owners lurking behind us.

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Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed May 12, 2010 1:50 pm

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Nice read Wayne. I thought your bids on Aviles and Olsen were low.Olsen has been really good and could have been a big help and im the biggest Aviles fan in fantasy having him in like 10 or 11 of my 14 leagues.I HAD him in 2 auctions and grabbed him the week before for a dollar in 3 leagues.I also picked up Putz in a few leagues hoping for the closer shot it was only 2 years ago he was a top 3 closer off the boards in drafts.I wish i bid a little higher on Contreras as i think he could be a sleeper for saves.I hope you didnt play Villanueva as he's given up 6 run's this week already, OUCH.I also think Roberts is atleast a month away and he is killing teams who took him in rounds 4 to 5.I also hope ManRam gets it going soon as he's killing me.

GOOD LUCK . :cool: Thanks Eddie and good luck to you too. I spoke with Clum about Olsen who saw him pitch back in his Florida days. Clum was high on him, too. I tempered my bid because of the team he plays on (Washington has not been all that horrible this year, but we are not in June yet) and Olsen has a tendency to pull a Bonderman too frequently. In the end, I shorted myself and lost out on the opportunity.



I like Aviles especially given my needs, but in no way was I contemplating a large enough bid to top KJ's.



Other of KJ's wisdom is calling out Roberts as a "value trap" or words of the sort. I got him in the sixth. I am getting concerned he comes back at all this year. Right now I am sitting with half of what I had envisioned as my CM/MI spots, but hopefully Furcal comes back running like he was the first couple of weeks.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed May 12, 2010 1:56 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Hey Wayne, I knew I'd be overbidding for Aviles in most of my leagues, but mission accomplished as I picked him in all 4 of my big lges where he was available. In 3 of the 4 the runner-up was in the 30-50 range, in one it was 115. Not knowing where the one big bid could be (which would've been a reasonable expectation), I wanted him in all leagues and bid accordingly. I'll go on record here and say he outperforms Starlin this year at 1/3rd of the cost.



That said, you're right I didn't need a MI Zobrist, Beckham and Wigginton at 2b and Alex Gonzalez, hopeful to be back soon Rollins and now Aviles at SS. But there isn't much available in terms of quality hitters in our league, Beckham has stunk it up and I only have one healthy bench hitter this week, so I didn't mind paying up for depth.



Looks like a fun race for the title in this league with Quahogs, myself and your team battling it out at the top for now and tons of quality owners lurking behind us. I knew you had a plan for Aviles, but when Rollins comes back, you may have a need elsewhere and you will have to drop some of that talent. And I will be waiting "...jess like a spider!"







Wish I were having a better week. I think I am slipping quite a bit and there is too much talent for that to go on long if I want to remain a contender. Good fun league.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed May 12, 2010 2:14 pm

And how the HEXX does Bonderman get shelled by the Indians, but hold the Yanks to five hits and two runs through seven?
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Weekly Thoughts on my Team - Are we having fun yet?

Post by Glenneration X » Wed May 12, 2010 2:25 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

And how the HEXX does Bonderman get shelled by the Indians, but hold the Yanks to five hits and two runs through seven? Beats me Wayne. I dropped Bonderman in a whole sh**load of leagues over the last couple weeks....

My timing is impeccable as always. :cool:



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Post by rockitsauce » Wed May 12, 2010 2:44 pm

so you keep Lowe, but dump Cook. :confused: aren't they pretty much the same pitcher? as evidenced by the fact that they both won today but still have ERA's well north of 5.



conclusion: they both suck, but since Rockies are better than Braves, I think you dropped the wrong sinkerballer.



of course you are an ATL fan, so good luck w/ that :D
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Post by Edwards Kings » Thu May 13, 2010 12:56 pm

Originally posted by rockitsauce:

so you keep Lowe, but dump Cook. :confused: aren't they pretty much the same pitcher? as evidenced by the fact that they both won today but still have ERA's well north of 5.



conclusion: they both suck, but since Rockies are better than Braves, I think you dropped the wrong sinkerballer.



of course you are an ATL fan, so good luck w/ that :D I will agree they both have sucked this year, but no, I do not rank Lowe and Cook even close.



Cook always gives up a ton more hits than IP (certainly Lowe did last year, but that was not his norm), Cook has never had 100+ K's, Lowe has had 100+ each of the last eight years, Cook has won more than 11 games once, Lowe has had more than 11 wins each of the last eight years, until last year, Lowe had had a run of four consecutive years of an ERA below 4.00 and WHIPs under 1.30, Cook has had an ERA below 4.00 twice including one year when he only had 13 GS and never a WHIP under 1.30.



Lowe has been rough since about mid-year last year and that is a concern. But Cook is not even close to his class, in my opinion.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Post by Edwards Kings » Thu May 13, 2010 12:57 pm

And being a Braves fan is a curse again! :D
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Post by KJ Duke » Thu May 13, 2010 2:05 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I will agree they both have sucked this year, but no, I do not rank Lowe and Cook even close.



Cook always gives up a ton more hits than IP (certainly Lowe did last year, but that was not his norm), Cook has never had 100+ K's, Lowe has had 100+ each of the last eight years, Cook has won more than 11 games once, Lowe has had more than 11 wins each of the last eight years, until last year, Lowe had had a run of four consecutive years of an ERA below 4.00 and WHIPs under 1.30, Cook has had an ERA below 4.00 twice including one year when he only had 13 GS and never a WHIP under 1.30.



Lowe has been rough since about mid-year last year and that is a concern. But Cook is not even close to his class, in my opinion. Agree Wayne. I've always been surprised at the love Cook gets in drafts ... I've assumed it's a Schandlerite thing because I've never seen anything to like there.



Lowe in ATL should have value, "should" doesn't always happen but its a reasonable expectation and a far better bet of the two.

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Post by rockitsauce » Thu May 13, 2010 5:05 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:





Cook always gives up a ton more hits than IP (certainly Lowe did last year, but that was not his norm), Cook has never had 100+ K's, Lowe has had 100+ each of the last eight years, Cook has won more than 11 games once, Lowe has had more than 11 wins each of the last eight years, until last year, Lowe had had a run of four consecutive years of an ERA below 4.00 and WHIPs under 1.30, Cook has had an ERA below 4.00 twice including one year when he only had 13 GS and never a WHIP under 1.30.



ancient history brother...you already said it yourself, Lowe's descent began last yr (and continues) all those good numbers from Boston/LA, don't help you now.



Can't wait to see him at the Bank :D



I'm no Shanderite...I play for THIS yr. I don't want either of'em, but if I had to....give me the Cook.





btw, just razzing bout Braves. Seeing them stomp on my Phillies' dreams for so much of my youth has left me emotionally damaged I think it's Greg's fault. or Fanball.



luckily we'll always have 1980 & 2008



and at least in '93 we beat you know who :D
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