Main Event Thoughts - Risky Business

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Edwards Kings
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Main Event Thoughts - Risky Business

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 17, 2010 5:20 am

Week Six Results – And I quote, “Cecil gets Texas, but in Toronto which hopefully is a LITTLE better.” OOOOOPS! And someone (Eddie I think) was kind enough to hope I hadn’t had Carlos Villanueva in last week. OOOOOPS! Those two combined for five innings, 13 hits, three walks, seven K’s and 14 Earned Runs. Wow! How does a 3.200 WHIP and a 25.200 ERA grab you. It did me in as I did my best Fred Sanford imitation when I saw the boxes. Despite that, my pitchers were actually a bit unlucky last week. My starters not named “Cecil the Sea Serpent” (anyone else remember this old Bob Clampett cartoon “Beany and Cecil”?) as the others combined for seven starts with a combined ERA of 3.000 and a WHIP of 1.1333, with 41 K’s and a 3.7 K/BB ratio. What is missing are Wins. Five of the starts were really good, but no Wins. I have been extremely lucky in that department thus far, but this week wiped out my gains in that department. All in all I ended up with a poor (but not disastrous) ERA, a WHIP I can live with for an off week, good K’s (I haven’t been below 50 K’s in a week all year), no wins and two saves. For the year, my primary pitching concerns are that my top four pitchers (Garza, Shields, Weaver, and Danks) are still over performing a bit, so the back end of my rotation needs to get settled to be able to absorb a bit of a correction. In addition, I have one closer, and that is Soria, who is not getting may opportunities from KC (as expected I guess). Really Saves are the only pitching category that I am digging a deep hole in.



My bats were mediocre to say the best. For the second time this year, I did not get 10+ HR and I continue to crawfish (i.e. tucking my tail and reversing course at a quick pace) on steals. I was supposed to get Furcal back this weekend and I was hoping to start getting a little help in speed, but later on Friday, they postponed his recall to this week. One of my other SB sources, the “Flyin’ Hawaiian” Shane Victorino is doing more banging than flying. He really had a monster week (.4348, eight runs, seven RBI’s, one each HR and SP), but for the year he has eight homeruns and only five SB. He has thrived in the LO spot, but is not stealing bases at any kind of pace that will get me the 30+ (40+?) I would really like to have from him. I know it is kind of stupid to moan about 32 RBI for the year (fourth in MLB) to go with the eight dingers (tied for 18th) and 25 Runs (tied for 21st). With his BA climbing, Victorino is looking like he will produce like a complete package this year, so I will stop my whining.



Overall, except for BA, I am right at or below by a couple all my counting offensive stats and that is good news. Unlike Ethier, many players on my team are underperforming for the year or hurt. Therefore, when players like Aramis Ramirez start producing and I get Furcal back, and I get Roberts back (cross your fingers), I could be primed to bust a real move. For the time being, I need to hold on and keep my counting stats on target.



Speaking of Ethier, is their a priest, shaman, faith healer, gypsy fortune teller, Ernest Angsley, wicken, elf, phoenix, or anyone else with mystical healing powers available to cure a pinky boo-boo? I really cannot afford to lose him or his production, but I know only rest can heal the break. I sat him down for at least the first four games of this week because I think at least two will be rest anyway.



The following is a simple statement of personal preference. It is no means intended to be negative, represent some cabal of disgruntled ogres or fantasy baseball owners, nor is it the opinion of the or a reflection on the current management. ;)



Speaking of sitting someone down for four days, I now have that option due to the fact we can change our batting line-up on Friday. I do not necessarily dislike this rule but I definitely do not like that rule. It makes this contest easier, which may have some broader appeal. If I was going to risk losing Either’s potential for the weekend IF the Dodgers do not put him on the DL, I would probably leave him in. As it is, I will rack up some few stats (comparatively) and then have the option to use him Friday, Saturday, and Sunday if he remains on the LA active roster. Just my two cents, but I kind of liked it tougher. Just a masochist I guess.



Week Seven Free Agents – There were actually several decent pitching options available in the FA pool this week. I only rented Mitre last week (not bad in two starts with a combined 9.3 IP with 7 K’s, a 3.857 ERA and a 1.2857 WHIP and was in line to get the win until Rivera allowed a grand slam, something he has not done since 2002), so he was dropped. I put in a healthy bid ($121) on John Ely (two starts this week at home versus HOU and DET), but was the bridesmaid to the winning bid of $133. My first contingent was for Derek Holland, TEX (two starts this week at home versus LAA and CHC) at $71 and was not even close to the winning bid of $157. Bergeson, BLT (versus KC and at WAS) and, heaven help me, Bonderman (versus CWS and at LAD) were also very decent options, but I opted for as my second contingency Hansom Homer Bailey, CIN (versus MIL and at CLE). I spent $51 on him and did not overpay (maybe) too much as the second place bid was for $25. Bailey is a DANGEROUS pick and I am not enamored with him because of his shut out of that offensive juggernaught, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Actually Bailey has been on my radar since his good game against St. Louis on May 1st. He threw 121 pitches in that game, then got lit up by the Cubbies. He only threw 94 in that one and only 90 against Pittsburgh, so I am hoping that this is the beginning of a nice little run if he throws to contact and keeps his control up (has had three or less walks in five of his seven games) to keep his pitch count in line. Dusty, take care of my boy, please!



I needed a catcher with do-nothing Baker going on the DL. Thin ain’t in it for catchers, so I nabbed Max Ramirez, TEX. Not expecting much, so I cannot be disappointed here.



I hated to do it, but I cut bait on Alex Gordon, KC. With so much of my bench still in rehab, I simply could not afford the bench spot wasted on a ML player, especially if I am losing Either even for a few days. Corey Hart was available in my league and while he has not been good, he has been better than nothing. My mediocre bid of $31 was well behind the winner ($92). I also had a very limited bid on Corey Patterson ($13 who went for $44) and Blalock ($14 who went for $50), but my first contingency bid was for Eric Hinske, ATL, the pride of Menasha, Wisconsin at $26, and I won. It would be amazing to me, especially with Diaz on the DL, if Hinske did not continue to get full time starts in left field for the Braves. Bobby Cox has always been a defense first manager and Hinske is a cornerman who is at best adequate in LF (had a good chance at a runner this week-end on a play at the plate, but his throw was up the line), but since May 11th (five games), Hinske is 9 for 17 (.5294) with five extra-base hits and eight RBI’s. How can you not go with the hot hand? I have convinced myself that this in not a typical homey bid, so I hope Hinske comes through for me.



Week Seven Plans – Full slate of games for all teams this week, so I will have to do better than the 244 AB I had last week (thanks to Mr. Baker, Mr. Either, Mr. DeWitt/Furcal, and Mr. Jones). Furcal is supposed to be back, which is good for me. Infante has done me well, but with Escobar back from the DL for the Braves, he will not see the regular AB he was getting. I am going to sit Either in favor of Hinske, at least until Friday. Willingham will also be back at full strength as well, so I am hoping for 300+ AB.



On the longer term front, Roberts is starting some baseball activities so I hope to have him back earlier in June than later. Carlos Guillen is a sixth OFer type in our format, but if he truly does get the nod a second base for Detroit, sometime in the middle of June I could have a middle-of-the-pack MI type. I have been able to maintain respectability so far this year and have been FAR from healthy. Would be nice to get everyone back.



Pitching by and large has some favorable matchups this week and I am going with the guys to get me eleven starts this week to see if I can recapture some of the Win magic. Derek Lowe, who has been a disappointment to say the least, “claims” in an AJC article last week-end that he was “too predictable” always throwing the sinker down and away. He credits his good start last week to coming inside more and throwing his change-up more. OK, fine. Sure, whatever you say. I will believe it after a few more starts and two will be this week versus the Mutts and at Pittsburgh. Jared Weaver has two ugly starts (at TEX and at STL), but how can you sit a 2.47 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP? Danks, who has been merely damn good in two of his last three starts and excellent in the other gets one at DET and versus FLA. With Bailey, that is eight starts. Shields has a tough one in New York against the Yanks. Garza gets one at HOU and Cecil (yup, sticking with him) gets one at SEA. Let’s hope I am not sticking my neck out too far, but honestly with so many games this week, if you do not have at least 10 starts, you have a good chance to lose some ground.



What is the over/under on a 4.00 ERA for Cecil, Lowe and Bailey combined this week?



[ May 17, 2010, 08:22 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

Chest Rockwell
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Main Event Thoughts - Risky Business

Post by Chest Rockwell » Mon May 17, 2010 6:23 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Week Six Results – And I quote, “Cecil gets Texas, but in Toronto which hopefully is a LITTLE better.” OOOOOPS! And someone (Eddie I think) was kind enough to hope I hadn’t had Carlos Villanueva in last week. OOOOOPS! Those two combined for five innings, 13 hits, three walks, seven K’s and 14 Earned Runs. Wow! How does a 3.200 WHIP and a 25.200 ERA grab you. It did me in as I did my best Fred Sanford imitation when I saw the boxes. Despite that, my pitchers were actually a bit unlucky last week. My starters not named “Cecil the Sea Serpent” (anyone else remember this old Bob Clampett cartoon “Beany and Cecil”?) as the others combined for seven starts with a combined ERA of 3.000 and a WHIP of 1.1333, with 41 K’s and a 3.7 K/BB ratio. What is missing are Wins. Five of the starts were really good, but no Wins. I have been extremely lucky in that department thus far, but this week wiped out my gains in that department. All in all I ended up with a poor (but not disastrous) ERA, a WHIP I can live with for an off week, good K’s (I haven’t been below 50 K’s in a week all year), no wins and two saves. For the year, my primary pitching concerns are that my top four pitchers (Garza, Shields, Weaver, and Danks) are still over performing a bit, so the back end of my rotation needs to get settled to be able to absorb a bit of a correction. In addition, I have one closer, and that is Soria, who is not getting may opportunities from KC (as expected I guess). Really Saves are the only pitching category that I am digging a deep hole in.



My bats were mediocre to say the best. For the second time this year, I did not get 10+ HR and I continue to crawfish (i.e. tucking my tail and reversing course at a quick pace) on steals. I was supposed to get Furcal back this weekend and I was hoping to start getting a little help in speed, but later on Friday, they postponed his recall to this week. One of my other SB sources, the “Flyin’ Hawaiian” Shane Victorino is doing more banging than flying. He really had a monster week (.4348, eight runs, seven RBI’s, one each HR and SP), but for the year he has eight homeruns and only five SB. He has thrived in the LO spot, but is not stealing bases at any kind of pace that will get me the 30+ (40+?) I would really like to have from him. I know it is kind of stupid to moan about 32 RBI for the year (fourth in MLB) to go with the eight dingers (tied for 18th) and 25 Runs (tied for 21st). With his BA climbing, Victorino is looking like he will produce like a complete package this year, so I will stop my whining.



Overall, except for BA, I am right at or below by a couple all my counting offensive stats and that is good news. Unlike Either, many players on my team are underperforming for the year or hurt. Therefore, when players like Aramis Ramirez start producing and I get Furcal back, and I get Roberts back (cross your fingers), I could be primed to bust a real move. For the time being, I need to hold on and keep my counting stats on target.



Speaking of Either, is their a priest, shaman, faith healer, gypsy fortune teller, Ernest Angsley, wicken, elf, phoenix, or anyone else with mystical healing powers available to cure a pinky boo-boo? I really cannot afford to lose him or his production, but I know only rest can heal the break. I sat him down for at least the first four games of this week because I think at least two will be rest anyway.



The following is a simple statement of personal preference. It is no means intended to be negative, represent some cabal of disgruntled ogres or fantasy baseball owners, nor is it the opinion of the or a reflection on the current management. ;)



Speaking of sitting someone down for four days, I now have that option due to the fact we can change our batting line-up on Friday. I do not necessarily dislike this rule but I definitely do not like that rule. It makes this contest easier, which may have some broader appeal. If I was going to risk losing Either’s potential for the weekend IF the Dodgers do not put him on the DL, I would probably leave him in. As it is, I will rack up some few stats (comparatively) and then have the option to use him Friday, Saturday, and Sunday if he remains on the LA active roster. Just my two cents, but I kind of liked it tougher. Just a masochist I guess.



Week Seven Free Agents – There were actually several decent pitching options available in the FA pool this week. I only rented Mitre last week (not bad in two starts with a combined 9.3 IP with 7 K’s, a 3.857 ERA and a 1.2857 WHIP and was in line to get the win until Rivera allowed a grand slam, something he has not done since 2002), so he was dropped. I put in a healthy bid ($121) on John Ely (two starts this week at home versus HOU and DET), but was the bridesmaid to the winning bid of $133. My first contingent was for Derek Holland, TEX (two starts this week at home versus LAA and CHC) at $71 and was not even close to the winning bid of $157. Bergeson, BLT (versus KC and at WAS) and, heaven help me, Bonderman (versus CWS and at LAD) were also very decent options, but I opted for as my second contingency Hansom Homer Bailey, CIN (versus MIL and at CLE). I spent $51 on him and did not overpay (maybe) too much as the second place bid was for $25. Bailey is a DANGEROUS pick and I am not enamored with him because of his shut out of that offensive juggernaught, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Actually Bailey has been on my radar since his good game against St. Louis on May 1st. He threw 121 pitches in that game, then got lit up by the Cubbies. He only threw 94 in that one and only 90 against Pittsburgh, so I am hoping that this is the beginning of a nice little run if he throws to contact and keeps his control up (has had three or less walks in five of his seven games) to keep his pitch count in line. Dusty, take care of my boy, please!



I needed a catcher with do-nothing Baker going on the DL. Thin ain’t in it for catchers, so I nabbed Max Ramirez, TEX. Not expecting much, so I cannot be disappointed here.



I hated to do it, but I cut bait on Alex Gordon, KC. With so much of my bench still in rehab, I simply could not afford the bench spot wasted on a ML player, especially if I am losing Either even for a few days. Corey Hart was available in my league and while he has not been good, he has been better than nothing. My mediocre bid of $31 was well behind the winner ($92). I also had a very limited bid on Corey Patterson ($13 who went for $44) and Blalock ($14 who went for $50), but my first contingency bid was for Eric Hinske, ATL, the pride of Menasha, Wisconsin at $26, and I won. It would be amazing to me, especially with Diaz on the DL, if Hinske did not continue to get full time starts in left field for the Braves. Bobby Cox has always been a defense first manager and Hinske is a cornerman who is at best adequate in LF (had a good chance at a runner this week-end on a play at the plate, but his throw was up the line), but since May 11th (five games), Hinske is 9 for 17 (.5294) with five extra-base hits and eight RBI’s. How can you not go with the hot hand? I have convinced myself that this in not a typical homey bid, so I hope Hinske comes through for me.



Week Seven Plans – Full slate of games for all teams this week, so I will have to do better than the 244 AB I had last week (thanks to Mr. Baker, Mr. Either, Mr. DeWitt/Furcal, and Mr. Jones). Furcal is supposed to be back, which is good for me. Infante has done me well, but with Escobar back from the DL for the Braves, he will not see the regular AB he was getting. I am going to sit Either in favor of Hinske, at least until Friday. Willingham will also be back at full strength as well, so I am hoping for 300+ AB.



On the longer term front, Roberts is starting some baseball activities so I hope to have him back earlier in June than later. Carlos Guillen is a sixth OFer type in our format, but if he truly does get the nod a second base for Detroit, sometime in the middle of June I could have a middle-of-the-pack MI type. I have been able to maintain respectability so far this year and have been FAR from healthy. Would be nice to get everyone back.



Pitching by and large has some favorable matchups this week and I am going with the guys to get me eleven starts this week to see if I can recapture some of the Win magic. Derek Lowe, who has been a disappointment to say the least, “claims” in an AJC article last week-end that he was “too predictable” always throwing the sinker down and away. He credits his good start last week to coming inside more and throwing his change-up more. OK, fine. Sure, whatever you say. I will believe it after a few more starts and two will be this week versus the Mutts and at Pittsburgh. Jared Weaver has two ugly starts (at TEX and at STL), but how can you sit a 2.47 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP? Danks, who has been merely damn good in two of his last three starts and excellent in the other gets one at DET and versus FLA. With Bailey, that is eight starts. Shields has a tough one in New York against the Yanks. Garza gets one at HOU and Cecil (yup, sticking with him) gets one at SEA. Let’s hope I am not sticking my neck out too far, but honestly with so many games this week, if you do not have at least 10 starts, you have a good chance to lose some ground.



What is the over/under on a 4.00 ERA for Cecil, Lowe and Bailey combined this week? Wayne- I love the write ups. You really do a great job on these and they have to make people who do not even know you root for your squads.



I have locked horns with you a couple of times. As an opponent I always saw a trend that I liked as an opponent. As a friend it makes me want to shake you.



Stop being so dang tight on FAAB and being worried about overbidding a guy up. You missed on a lot of guys this week for what I think are pretty reasonable prices that could help your squad.



Owners then tend to have a deep stack and just completely overbid on a guy because they have the money later in the year. (Scott Linebrink in 2008 come to mind)



You have been doing this long enough to know very little help comes on the waiver wire after the all star break and when it does the one guy with 900 bucks left snatches him up anyway.



Good luck brother!

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Edwards Kings
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Main Event Thoughts - Risky Business

Post by Edwards Kings » Mon May 17, 2010 12:45 pm

Hey, Chesty! Great to see you doing so well, my friend.



There is, of course, much truth in what you say. I regret being out-bid this year for Pavano, Olsen, and probably will regret losing out on Ely. That being said, some of the winning bids in my league have been so far out there, in no way would I have bid enough. I have had a couple of $200+ bids out there that I lost on and many $100+. I still have time to make a few good gets, though.



I promise I will be more aggressive....when the time comes and it is the right player. :D
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
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Main Event Thoughts - Risky Business

Post by MichiganFantasyTeam » Tue May 18, 2010 2:46 am

Thanks for putting in the time for an outstanding write-up. This is such a great read from week to week.

Goodluck!
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Main Event Thoughts - Risky Business

Post by Frozen Tundra » Tue May 18, 2010 3:30 am

Nice writeup Wayne.

Lowe didn't get the W but his line was not horrible. 7 IP 3 ER, 1.00 Whip 3 K

Then, he was facing the Mutts so you must be a bit disappointed.

On the other hand, Cecil is burning bridges fast again...could be headed back to AAA when Rzep..something comes back from DL
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Post by Oaktown » Tue May 18, 2010 5:00 am

Love this read every week, so fun to see how someone goes through things week to week.

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Edwards Kings
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Main Event Thoughts - Risky Business

Post by Edwards Kings » Tue May 18, 2010 11:16 pm

Originally posted by AZSteamers:

Nice writeup Wayne.

Lowe didn't get the W but his line was not horrible. 7 IP 3 ER, 1.00 Whip 3 K

Then, he was facing the Mutts so you must be a bit disappointed.

On the other hand, Cecil is burning bridges fast again...could be headed back to AAA when Rzep..something comes back from DL Cecil's game in Seattle should be a tell. I like that other Toronto pitcher whose name I cannot spell a lot. I think Toronto would be better off with both in their line-up.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Edwards Kings
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Main Event Thoughts - Risky Business

Post by Edwards Kings » Thu May 20, 2010 12:01 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

What is the over/under on a 4.00 ERA for Cecil, Lowe and Bailey combined this week? Probably putting the jinx on as they have two games left this week (Lowe @ PIT and Bailey @ CLE), but for the week so far in three starts, 20.3 IP, 1 Win, only 11 K's, but with a 3.098 ERA and 1.033 WHIP.



I will take it.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Edwards Kings
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Main Event Thoughts - Risky Business

Post by Edwards Kings » Thu May 20, 2010 12:09 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by AZSteamers:

Nice writeup Wayne.

Lowe didn't get the W but his line was not horrible. 7 IP 3 ER, 1.00 Whip 3 K

Then, he was facing the Mutts so you must be a bit disappointed.

On the other hand, Cecil is burning bridges fast again...could be headed back to AAA when Rzep..something comes back from DL Cecil's game in Seattle should be a tell. I like that other Toronto pitcher whose name I cannot spell a lot. I think Toronto would be better off with both in their line-up.
[/QUOTE]At least we know Cecil can handle a AAA ballclub like Seattle. Still, a shut-out through 6 1/3 is nothing to sneeze at.



Rzep...whatever...will take a few more starts to get back it looks like. Eveland will be the first to go, or so I have read.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Post by Gekko » Thu May 20, 2010 12:14 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

At least we know Cecil can handle a AAA ballclub like Seattle. wayne - do u think people will get tricked into starting him next week ;)

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Post by Frozen Tundra » Thu May 20, 2010 3:08 pm

[/qb][/QUOTE]At least we know Cecil can handle a AAA ballclub like Seattle. Still, a shut-out through 6 1/3 is nothing to sneeze at.



Rzep...whatever...will take a few more starts to get back it looks like. Eveland will be the first to go, or so I have read. [/QB][/quote]


Lucky as Seattle is indeed a AAA club (although they did snatch one off a AAA closer today) Cecil would have been charged with 3 ER and no W of course had a pro team been playing the Jays. However, where do you go from here?

Do you dare starting him in Anaheim?
"Imagination is everything. It is the preview of life's coming attractions"
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Edwards Kings
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Post by Edwards Kings » Thu May 20, 2010 10:57 pm

Originally posted by AZSteamers:

At least we know Cecil can handle a AAA ballclub like Seattle. Still, a shut-out through 6 1/3 is nothing to sneeze at.



Rzep...whatever...will take a few more starts to get back it looks like. Eveland will be the first to go, or so I have read. [/QB][/quote]


Lucky as Seattle is indeed a AAA club (although they did snatch one off a AAA closer today) Cecil would have been charged with 3 ER and no W of course had a pro team been playing the Jays. However, where do you go from here?

Do you dare starting him in Anaheim? [/QB][/quote]


Good question. Against the Angels, it could be a gas-can start for sure, but he is a two-start pitcher that week and the second part of the twin-bill is at home versus Baltimore...much more desirable. I am not sure I will have better options for the back end of my rotation, so I just might.



I will be out in the pool looking for something even better, but LHed power ground ball pitchers are better risks than most.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

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Post by KJ Duke » Fri May 21, 2010 7:58 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

At least we know Cecil can handle a AAA ballclub like Seattle. wayne - do u think people will get tricked into starting him next week ;) [/QUOTE]stats vs boston, tampa and chicago



4.16-1.33, 17.1 IP, 14k/5bb ... one bad start against texas and he's trash? Maybe he was dizzy like Hanson. ;)

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