NFBC Message Boards

This is not Jupinka's #1 overall team, but in his other league with me he is also in first place so I wrote this on our league message board and thought to share it to all - Craig K.



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Quahogs: Fact of Fiction?



The Phrase is stolen from the Baseball Roundtable Podcast but here I'm just analyzing how Quahogs got where they are and they're chances to stay there.



First of all, his success has had nothing to do with "thieving" Kemp and Tulowitzki in the first round as many people mentioned after the draft. Kemp has been okay and Tulo a minus only due to injury. So just getting that out of the way first. I was actually pondering taking Carl Crawford on the wrap-around with my second pick instead of Adrian Studzalez, contrary to the Humenfund thinking I was expecting Ellsbury there as they said in their podcast, so I am happy he didn't fall to Quahogs (rather than Tulo).



What immediately stands out is the freakish success on the waiver wire for starting pitching and outfield, plus Ike Davis at corner. What could have been a trainwreck at those positions has become a well-oiled machine. Let's look.



C- Montero (D), Olivo (D)

1B- Butler (D) CI- Ike Davis ($112, before called up)

2B- JLopez (D), MI- Zobrist (D)

3B - Beltre (D) Freese ($38)

SS- Escobar (D), Tulowitzki (D)

OF - Kemp (D), Rios (D), Rasmus (D), Drew (D), Colvin ($47, before starting), U- Pie ($17) S.Smith ($23) Headley (D) Gardner (D)



SP- Greinke (D)

J. Johnson (D)

C.J. Wilson (D)

Morrow ($45)

Niese ($28)

Padilla ($24)

Volquez (37)

Vargas ($29)

Medlen (D)



RP - Lidge (D), Street (D)



What we see is that he spent nickel and dime type of money to completely re-invent his pitching staff and three of his offensive regulars. That's big stuff.



Now the draft. Obviously Rios, Rasmus, Josh Johnson, CJ Wilson, Beltre, Gardner, Olivo, and Medlen were his biggies, and have carried his offense and otherwise mediocre drafted pitching staff. Many of his other regulars such as Butler, Escobar, Greinke, Lidge, Street, Escobar, Zobrist, Kemp, Montero have been average or below average compared to what was expected for them.



So can possible reverting to the median of his over-performers overtake the probable positive correction of some of slumping players? Are some of his high producing pick-ups merely a flash in the pan and are due for correction?



Unfortunately, I am not able to find too many possible cracks in the armor. He may not go up in any category except saves, but at this point he doesn't need to. Where might he fall a little bit? Well, a lot of places, such as Runs, HR, RBI, ERA, and WHIP. He might. But that is not a scare tactic. ( Not an overt one anyway. ) He may settle up there and kick a chair back in those categories.



Anyway, congrats on a good first half and a mix of a solid up and down draft and crafty bidding.



-Craig

Here's an interesting story about this draft:



I was in Vegas the first weekend of the NFBC when I first heard of his draft. I was sharing a room with Rick Thomas. Rick had recieved a few update from AC from Randy. In passing Rick was giving me Steve's draft picks. He gave me the first 10 picks and I told Rick I thought the draft broke perfect for Steve. For some reason I didn't talk to Rick for 6 hours. When we talked again, he gave me rest of his picks. I was really surpised by his picks in rounds 11-20. I was wondering who took over the controls of the team. I thought he gave away three picks in a row - Lidge, Street, and Escobar. I also wasn't a fan of Porcello.



The next day I gave Steve the same feed back on his team. It's sad to say, but he might only beat out himself if he got the closers right. Escobar was his 4th middle infielder, but he cost him a decent start which he was able to find on the wire. The same goes for Porcello.



It looks like Steve aced one draft and he was a couple of players away from acing a second.

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Here's an interesting story about this draft:



I was in Vegas the first weekend of the NFBC when I first heard of his draft. I was sharing a room with Rick Thomas. Rick had recieved a few update from AC from Randy. In passing Rick was giving me Steve's draft picks. He gave me the first 10 picks and I told Rick I thought the draft broke perfect for Steve. For some reason I didn't talk to Rick for 6 hours. When we talked again, he gave me rest of his picks. I was really surpised by his picks in rounds 11-20. I was wondering who took over the controls of the team. I thought he gave away three picks in a row - Lidge, Street, and Escobar. I also wasn't a fan of Porcello.



The next day I gave Steve the same feed back on his team. It's sad to say, but he might only beat out himself if he got the closers right. Escobar was his 4th middle infielder, but he cost him a decent start which he was able to find on the wire. The same goes for Porcello.



It looks like Steve aced one draft and he was a couple of players away from acing a second. He was doing well until he got to Billy Butler.



[ July 14, 2010, 10:27 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Originally posted by Sebadiah23:

This is not Jupinka's #1 overall team, but in his other league with me he is also in first place so I wrote this on our league message board and thought to share it to all - Craig K.



***********************************

Quahogs: Fact of Fiction?



The Phrase is stolen from the Baseball Roundtable Podcast but here I'm just analyzing how Quahogs got where they are and they're chances to stay there.



First of all, his success has had nothing to do with "thieving" Kemp and Tulowitzki in the first round as many people mentioned after the draft. Kemp has been okay and Tulo a minus only due to injury. So just getting that out of the way first. I was actually pondering taking Carl Crawford on the wrap-around with my second pick instead of Adrian Studzalez, contrary to the Humenfund thinking I was expecting Ellsbury there as they said in their podcast, so I am happy he didn't fall to Quahogs (rather than Tulo).



What immediately stands out is the freakish success on the waiver wire for starting pitching and outfield, plus Ike Davis at corner. What could have been a trainwreck at those positions has become a well-oiled machine. Let's look.



C- Montero (D), Olivo (D)

1B- Butler (D) CI- Ike Davis ($112, before called up)

2B- JLopez (D), MI- Zobrist (D)

3B - Beltre (D) Freese ($38)

SS- Escobar (D), Tulowitzki (D)

OF - Kemp (D), Rios (D), Rasmus (D), Drew (D), Colvin ($47, before starting), U- Pie ($17) S.Smith ($23) Headley (D) Gardner (D)



SP- Greinke (D)

J. Johnson (D)

C.J. Wilson (D)

Morrow ($45)

Niese ($28)

Padilla ($24)

Volquez (37)

Vargas ($29)

Medlen (D)



RP - Lidge (D), Street (D)



What we see is that he spent nickel and dime type of money to completely re-invent his pitching staff and three of his offensive regulars. That's big stuff.



Now the draft. Obviously Rios, Rasmus, Josh Johnson, CJ Wilson, Beltre, Gardner, Olivo, and Medlen were his biggies, and have carried his offense and otherwise mediocre drafted pitching staff. Many of his other regulars such as Butler, Escobar, Greinke, Lidge, Street, Escobar, Zobrist, Kemp, Montero have been average or below average compared to what was expected for them.



So can possible reverting to the median of his over-performers overtake the probable positive correction of some of slumping players? Are some of his high producing pick-ups merely a flash in the pan and are due for correction?



Unfortunately, I am not able to find too many possible cracks in the armor. He may not go up in any category except saves, but at this point he doesn't need to. Where might he fall a little bit? Well, a lot of places, such as Runs, HR, RBI, ERA, and WHIP. He might. But that is not a scare tactic. ( Not an overt one anyway. ) He may settle up there and kick a chair back in those categories.



Anyway, congrats on a good first half and a mix of a solid up and down draft and crafty bidding.



-Craig Having played in the same league at Quahogs (who is a stand up nice guy btw) for I think the previous 3 years in NYC, I will that what he does during the season is just amazing. Time after time, I look at his draft and think I have done atleast as well or perhaps even better only to get my butt handed to me by his management during the season. He is so much better than me at the management aspect it is scary