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It's that time again. The regular season win totals have been posted. Instead of playing the stock market, I highly recommend taking advantage of this each year. Last year in this forum, I was 6-2 with my best bet being the Orioles under 82 wins. Here are my predicitons this year:



Orioles - under 79.5. Nothing has really changed other than bringing in S. Sosa. The pitching still stinks and they play in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox. Not sure why the number is so high but I'll buy the under for 2 stars.



Cubs - over 89.5. I missed on the Cubs last year, however there is just too much pitching not to hit 90 wins this year. Prior, Wood, Zambrano, & Maddux make this an easy one for 2 stars.



Indians - over 83.5. While no dominating pitcher, they're solid 1 through 5 and have an underrated line-up. I'll bid 1 star on them.



Angels - under 92.5. Their line-up in overrated. Lots of K guys and injury prone players. The staff is less than stellar. 2 stars on the under for this one.



Brewers - over 69.5 Weak division, improved line-up and Ben Sheets is enough to make a 1 star play.



Mets - over 85.5. Like the starting pitching and improved line-up. I think this is the year they make some noise. 1 star over.



Phillies - under 85. To many high strikeout, lower BA guys to be consistent. SP has suddenly become very shaky and they are in a tough division. Huge 3 star play on this lock.



Giants - under 87.5. Other than J. Schmidt, do any of their other starters scare you? The line-up lives and dies with Bonds and I dont trust the steroids and age. 2 star under.



Mariners - under 80.5. Just because they added the bats doesn't mean they will win 15 more games. 1 star under.



Rangers - under 80. Pitching is horrible and I can't see them repeating last year even with a power line-up. 1 star under.



Reds - under 77. I have no idea why this is so high. They have no table setters at the top and other than Casey, the power guys are low average players who strike out too often. The pitching for both the starters and bullpen is pathetic. Like the Phillies, I'm laying the wood with a 3 star play on this.



Hope you all enjoyed the predictions. Reds and Phillies are locks in my mind.

what's the line on the Astros? and what is your take? thanks.

What? No line on the AL Central division winning Twins? Looks like number four in a row to me.

Gekko. Astros are 83.5. I like the over slightly. I still think with Clemens, Oswalt, Pettite, & Lidge as the closer, they will compete. It is hard to ignore the weak hitting though.



Twins...I would also lean towards the over 89.5 for them.



Just my two cents.

LV Hilton has the Astros at 82 1/2. Hilton also has the Mets at 83 1/2, which is obviously a lot better than the 85 1/2 if you like the over, which I do at 83 1/2 but don't love at 85 1/2.

Orioles - under 79.5. Nothing has really changed other than bringing in S. Sosa. The pitching still stinks and they play in a division with the Yankees and Red Sox. Not sure why the number is so high but I'll buy the under for 2 stars.

I think this is a close one.. if Ponson and Sosa can rebound they are easily a .500 team. They also added two stud MR's in Kline/Reed.. so their MR is pretty strong. Especially if Julio can rebound a bit. I'd stay away from this one..



Cubs - over 89.5. I missed on the Cubs last year, however there is just too much pitching not to hit 90 wins this year. Prior, Wood, Zambrano, & Maddux make this an easy one for 2 stars.

I'll agree with you here. If those 4 SP stay healthy.. 100 wins should be very do-able. That's assuming they can find someone to hammer down the 9th





Indians - over 83.5. While no dominating pitcher, they're solid 1 through 5 and have an underrated line-up. I'll bid 1 star on them.

Agree again... the Central is a pretty still pretty soft [this coming from a huge twins fan]

and if Boone/Gonzo can give them ANYTHING on offense they are going to put up a serious # of runs. Addition of Millwood too is VERY nice..





Angels - under 92.5. Their line-up in overrated. Lots of K guys and injury prone players. The staff is less than stellar. 2 stars on the under for this one.

This is another one I'd stay away from. I don't think any other team in the West can roll out a better 1-5 than Colon, Escobar, Washburn, Byrd, Lacky. They have the most dominate stopper in the AL, and Shields/Donneley are two of the best MR's in the AL. Injuries are an issue to be sure.. but when you have Vlad on your side.. he can carry a team. Finley's bat is also pretty key. I just don't think I'd put any kind of $ on this one.





Brewers - over 69.5 Weak division, improved line-up and Ben Sheets is enough to make a 1 star play.

The AL Central is a weak division? Huh?

Cubs, Cards, Astros.. hell even the Reds are

scary assuming they can stay healthy. No way they reach 70 wins. Totally disagree with this one...





Mets - over 85.5. Like the starting pitching and improved line-up. I think this is the year they make some noise. 1 star over.

I just don't see this team being a .500 team. Counting on Reyes, Piazza, Floyd, Cameron to stay healthy? Counting on Wright to be the 2nd coming of Mike Schmidt? Counting on Beltran to be.. well.. the 2nd COMING?!?! I think they'll get close to .500.. but I would definately not bet this one.







Phillies - under 85. To many high strikeout, lower BA guys to be consistent. SP has suddenly become very shaky and they are in a tough division. Huge 3 star play on this lock.

Agree wholeheartedly here.. the Under on 85 should be a SINCH. They're counting on Lieber to be their staff anchor? Err.. good luck with that I think their bats will be fine, but losing Milton and Millwood is going to KILL this team.





Giants - under 87.5. Other than J. Schmidt, do any of their other starters scare you? The line-up lives and dies with Bonds and I dont trust the steroids and age. 2 star under.

No.. not really, but Lowry, Williams, Reuter, Tomko are all quality guys, and MORE than capable of taking on the BATS in the weakest division in baseball, I don't think I'd bet the under here. I wouldn't bet the over either, I'd just save my $ for the under 85 on the Phillies.





Mariners - under 80.5. Just because they added the bats doesn't mean they will win 15 more games. 1 star under.

Beltre will regress a bit. 25 HR 90 RBI tops.. Sexson's shoulder won't hold up. Guardardo will spend half the year on the DL. Moyer's witchcraft is wearing off. No more Steriods for Boone..

All point to the under being a safe bet





Rangers - under 80. Pitching is horrible and I can't see them repeating last year even with a power line-up. 1 star under.

Agreed.. not sure how much Kenny Rogers can work his witchcraft. They need to cut their losses with Chan Ho already, ever heard of addition by subtraction? Their offense is scary (especially if Mench/Hidalgo/Nix can give them ANYTHING).. but they can't beat people 10-8 every night.





Reds - under 77. I have no idea why this is so high. They have no table setters at the top and other than Casey, the power guys are low average players who strike out too often. The pitching for both the starters and bullpen is pathetic. Like the Phillies, I'm laying the wood with a 3 star play on this.

I think you're probably underestimating them a bit. If Griffey and Kearns can give them 140 games each they probably put up the best offensive #'s in the Central(yes I know that's a BIG IF)

I think they are EASILY a .500 ball club with a healthy offense and the addition of Milton/Ortiz. Hudson could be a real X-factor for them. Plus you gotta love Pena/Freel as subs if Griff or Kearns do go down. I wouldn't make this a 3 star lock.. maybe 1 star.



[ March 04, 2005, 11:28 AM: Message edited by: JAR ]

And gimme the OVER on the Twins no matter what it is!



[ March 04, 2005, 11:26 AM: Message edited by: JAR ]

Gimme the UNDER on KC Royals...whatever IT is!



~Lance