Thursday Chat Has Begun

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 10:03 am

Originally posted by Dyv:

quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

I don't think draft position is extremely important. As was my position with football I believe the key issue isn't where you draft, but rather who you draft. Agreed - having said that if YOU had your pick of positions, what would you prefer? I'm thinking #4 or #5 or the back of the draft would be my preference. Top couple and middle seem to not fit in with what I want to do. How about yourself?

Dave [/QUOTE]My preference is always to be in the middle of the pack. That way you don't miss out on any runs nor do you have to reach for anybody typically.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 10:10 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

I don't think draft position is extremely important. As was my position with football I believe the key issue isn't where you draft, but rather who you draft. Of course, who you are able to draft depends on where you draft from.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 10:13 am

Originally posted by nydownunder:

quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

I don't think draft position is extremely important. As was my position with football I believe the key issue isn't where you draft, but rather who you draft. The way things are stacking up (sample drafts) there are slots where you are at times in no man's land. Right now, the edges seem to havemore options or directions to head than the middle. [/QUOTE]Analyzing '04 results, the ends were worst. Early middle best, followed by late middle. But that was last year.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 10:13 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

I don't think draft position is extremely important. As was my position with football I believe the key issue isn't where you draft, but rather who you draft. Of course, who you are able to draft depends on where you draft from. [/QUOTE]True, but the ability to adapt and find talent beyond the players you may be targeting at the top of your list is one of the keys to a successful fantasy season. There is always plenty of talent available, you just have to know where to find it and act accordingly.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 10:22 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

I don't think draft position is extremely important. As was my position with football I believe the key issue isn't where you draft, but rather who you draft. Of course, who you are able to draft depends on where you draft from. [/QUOTE]True, but the ability to adapt and find talent beyond the players you may be targeting at the top of your list is one of the keys to a successful fantasy season. There is always plenty of talent available, you just have to know where to find it and act accordingly. [/QUOTE]I agree with you on baseball, the only disadvantage is being at either end where a run can start and finish before you can react.

In football, I think slot position is more important since the first few picks can dictate a very different draft strategy; key players also have much greater variance and impact on the overall team.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 10:26 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:

I don't think draft position is extremely important. As was my position with football I believe the key issue isn't where you draft, but rather who you draft. Of course, who you are able to draft depends on where you draft from. [/QUOTE]True, but the ability to adapt and find talent beyond the players you may be targeting at the top of your list is one of the keys to a successful fantasy season. There is always plenty of talent available, you just have to know where to find it and act accordingly. [/QUOTE]I agree with you on baseball, the only disadvantage is being at either end where a run can start and finish before you can react.

In football, I think slot position is more important since the first few picks can dictate a very different draft strategy; key players also have much greater variance and impact on the overall team. [/QUOTE]I think being OUT of a run is the best thing I could ask for. I'll trust my research and in-season management to make up for a stat that I miss out on. I'll take best available/ignored value any day

D

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 10:28 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Analyzing '04 results, the ends were worst. Early middle best, followed by late middle. But that was last year. [/quote]

With all the FAAB moves, this kind of draft analysis means nothing.

In season moves in both sports weigh more than draft slot.

I always have to laugh at one of my best customers several years ago as he complained vehemently about getting the #16 (last) spot. He said he hadn't drawn a single digit slot in over 8 years at the time. He called me back at the end of the season to tell me he drafted Sosa and McGwire, 16/17.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 10:39 am

Originally posted by UFS:

quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

Analyzing '04 results, the ends were worst. Early middle best, followed by late middle. But that was last year. [/QUOTE]With all the FAAB moves, this kind of draft analysis means nothing.

In season moves in both sports weigh more than draft slot.

I always have to laugh at one of my best customers several years ago as he complained vehemently about getting the #16 (last) spot. He said he hadn't drawn a single digit slot in over 8 years at the time. He called me back at the end of the season to tell me he drafted Sosa and McGwire, 16/17. [/quote]

I think post-mortem ideal draft slot is likely to change yr/yr based on which top players perform well.

On your second point, however, analysis of last year's overall NFBC rank showed 89% correlation with drafted value. That would leave an average 11% impact to in-season moves.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 11:11 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

I think post-mortem ideal draft slot is likely to change yr/yr based on which top players perform well.

On your second point, however, analysis of last year's overall NFBC rank showed 89% correlation with drafted value. That would leave an average 11% impact to in-season moves. It always changes every year based on performance.

The inventor of that theory is on crack.

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 11:49 am

QUOTE]You've seen an NFBC_scoring style sample draft for 2005? I would be careful about assuming too much accuracy for those...

D [/QB][/quote]

You can never predict exactly who will go where. My goal is to have a relative idea on what to expect and ensure you know your options in each spot. As long as I know where each player goes within 1 round, then that's enough for me. Knowing what the chances of a player going outside of that is just icing on the cake! And yes, my statistcal anlysis can help predict that!

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 1:26 pm

I like the middle...too hard to predict 26-28 players...not so bad to see needs and guess who may survive the next 14 picks and get back to you.

I've always wanted to visit Woop Woop! I'm calling my travel agent right now!

and for Gekko...

(Haaaargh!)

~Lance

nydownunder · Post by **nydownunder** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 1:31 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I like the middle...too hard to predict 26-28 players...not so bad to see needs and guess who may survive the next 14 picks and get back to you.

I've always wanted to visit Woop Woop! I'm calling my travel agent right now!

and for Gekko...

(Haaaargh!)

~Lance Should I assume you know the term Woop Woop?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Mar 03, 2005 4:59 pm

Originally posted by Nevadaman:

Tom, This year the NFBC took a great leap forward by expanding from 195 to 300 teams (we'll get there in a week or so) - not to mention the huge increase in the auctions. What will next year's goal be, 450 teams? That's a good question and one we probably won't be able to answer definitively until later this baseball season. Right now I'd say 375 would be my goal for 2006 in three cities and we'd increase second and third place league money and add to the second through 10th overall prizes. If we do go with a fourth city -- likely in Orlando or Tampa -- we may shoot for closer to 405 and possibly increase the grand prize to $125,000 or more. I don't want to grow too fast, but the additional 105 teams this year is encouraging and I think this steady growth is possible in the near future as we attract more new customers through our football and baseball events.