NFBC Message Boards

I play in NY League 4. I am a rookie in the Main, and am virtually out of $ and mired deep in the bottom of the standings. I decided to take a 2/3s season look to decide where I went wrong and whether I am merely outclassed as a fantasy player, or if there is hope for future seasons.



My draft in retrospective had some good, a lot of bad and also a ton of bad luck. I define bad luck as when a young healthy player gets hurt.



I drafted from 15t slot and went as follows

1. Wright: I did not like this pick but he has definitely performed as a first rounder...didnt lose here



2. J Upton: Not quite the break out I hoped for, but againnot the reason Im losing



3. Kendry M: This one hurt. I had speculated on Kendry ain a lot of leagues, thinking he had TExeira-like potential. Losing him like it heppened really hurts...just as my team was starting to climb a bit. (As you will see later, I lead all leagues in players injured during celebrations)



4. Cruz: Has been all that and then some, but has been out for almost 1/2 of season



5. Ubaldo: good



6. Kershaw: good



7. J Lopez: An example of how loving a guy too much is a bad idea in fantasy...I felt going in to season, that Lopez wasa guy who could go 280 27 100. I felt that based upon his career progression, he was being undervalued. I own him across the board and he has killed me everywhere



8 Alexei Ram: Maybe not 8th round numbers but he has been solid.



9 Montero: Hurt and invisible until last night



10 Marmol: an example of how if you are going to lock in a closer in rds 6-10, you better be right. Marmol has performed like a #2 closer or a mid-teen pick



11. De la Rosa: Loved him coming in. THought Rocks would be top team. To me his injury is bad luck.



So looking at top 11 picks, 3 (Kendry)4 (cruz) 10 (Montero) and 11(DLR) have all missed very large chunks and Lopez at 7 has been a terrible drain in all categories



12-20 was ok but barely:



12 Alcides Escobar: thought hed be a 25 steal guy and he has given help in no one category. Ive missed most of his good weeks because he has so many medicre ones, that I bench him in frustration. Bd skills in selecting him



13 Coglan: Was god awful for two months, became solid and then pulled a Kendry



14 Papi: whod of thought he would be my best pick



15 Wade Davis: Decent mostly



16 E Santana: my best value pick



17-18 Maybin-Snider nothing

19 Lindstrom good value

20 Blake see comments on Alcides



20- 30

only produced Cahill who I dropped and then repicked up



THen I had money management issues. I spent $180+ on Hinske

$100 plus on Vaciedo



My decent pick ups have been Paulino, who I picked up as a last resort when Montero went down and he was still platooning ...absolute luck. Cahill, Asdrubal for $1, who I think will be good down stretch

. Other then that it has been dross.



In retrospect, I misused my free agent $. Failed to get in on virtually any break out players. Had some bad luck. Had no success in latter third of draft



All-in-all...it is hard to write this season off to first timer blues. It seems as soon as I thought of a player, he was gone the previous week. THis means that I am getting out thought.

Your top ten picks were awesome, among the best you will see. Nobody hits on everyone so forget about Lopez and you 'll get correction from Aramis for the final 60.



You took too many chances in the mid-rounds and you'd have to post your 20-30 for us to evaluate.



In summary, get your top 500 as solid as you can and you probably didn't take enough chances on FAAB, either. In the amount bid or taking guy BEFORE they do anything or become closer, etc, based on potential.



-Craig

Did you ever bench Ortiz out of frustration?



I know I did... I have around 11 homers out of him I think? And...a terrible batting average. The worst part of Fantasy baseball...benching players during their good weeks. I always make the wrong decision.

another example,

Strasburg goes on the DL....I place Tommy Hunter in my lineup instead of Happ. Needless to say, that injury REALLY HURT ME. I lost Stras, and had my era and whip imploded on top of it, Tough Break.

Originally posted by Schwks:

I play in NY League 4. I am a rookie in the Main, and am virtually out of $ and mired deep in the bottom of the standings. I decided to take a 2/3s season look to decide where I went wrong and whether I am merely outclassed as a fantasy player, or if there is hope for future seasons.



My draft in retrospective had some good, a lot of bad and also a ton of bad luck. I define bad luck as when a young healthy player gets hurt.



I drafted from 15t slot and went as follows

1. Wright: I did not like this pick but he has definitely performed as a first rounder...didnt lose here



2. J Upton: Not quite the break out I hoped for, but againnot the reason Im losing



3. Kendry M: This one hurt. I had speculated on Kendry ain a lot of leagues, thinking he had TExeira-like potential. Losing him like it heppened really hurts...just as my team was starting to climb a bit. (As you will see later, I lead all leagues in players injured during celebrations)



4. Cruz: Has been all that and then some, but has been out for almost 1/2 of season



5. Ubaldo: good



6. Kershaw: good



7. J Lopez: An example of how loving a guy too much is a bad idea in fantasy...I felt going in to season, that Lopez wasa guy who could go 280 27 100. I felt that based upon his career progression, he was being undervalued. I own him across the board and he has killed me everywhere



8 Alexei Ram: Maybe not 8th round numbers but he has been solid.



9 Montero: Hurt and invisible until last night



10 Marmol: an example of how if you are going to lock in a closer in rds 6-10, you better be right. Marmol has performed like a #2 closer or a mid-teen pick



11. De la Rosa: Loved him coming in. THought Rocks would be top team. To me his injury is bad luck.



So looking at top 11 picks, 3 (Kendry)4 (cruz) 10 (Montero) and 11(DLR) have all missed very large chunks and Lopez at 7 has been a terrible drain in all categories



12-20 was ok but barely:



12 Alcides Escobar: thought hed be a 25 steal guy and he has given help in no one category. Ive missed most of his good weeks because he has so many medicre ones, that I bench him in frustration. Bd skills in selecting him



13 Coglan: Was god awful for two months, became solid and then pulled a Kendry



14 Papi: whod of thought he would be my best pick



15 Wade Davis: Decent mostly



16 E Santana: my best value pick



17-18 Maybin-Snider nothing

19 Lindstrom good value

20 Blake see comments on Alcides



20- 30

only produced Cahill who I dropped and then repicked up



THen I had money management issues. I spent $180+ on Hinske

$100 plus on Vaciedo



My decent pick ups have been Paulino, who I picked up as a last resort when Montero went down and he was still platooning ...absolute luck. Cahill, Asdrubal for $1, who I think will be good down stretch

. Other then that it has been dross.



In retrospect, I misused my free agent $. Failed to get in on virtually any break out players. Had some bad luck. Had no success in latter third of draft



All-in-all...it is hard to write this season off to first timer blues. It seems as soon as I thought of a player, he was gone the previous week. THis means that I am getting out thought. I really like the draft, which goes to show how my season has gone. Looking at your first ten, it's hard to believe you haven't done better, so I wonder if you're not putting enough weight on your lower picks and in-season management (as you kind of glossed over those). As I've pointed out elsewhere, not ruining your draft with your lower picks is at least as important as hitting with your higher picks.



I need to disagree with you on your analysis of some individuals. Maybe it will help you to see where your bias lies. Sounds like you are down on Ortiz. When big fat guys who can't do anything but hit go downhill, the end comes very fast. Considering how he started to tank in 2009, his 22 homers and sufferable batting average should have you ecstatic.



Also, I can't believe you are down on Marmol. He was a tenth round pick--not a fifth. I'm sure you'd love to have 30 saves from him right now, but a closer who is pulling down a 2.60 ERA and 91 STRIKEOUTS WITH TWO MONTHS REMAINING and has kept his job all year is a steal in the tenth round. It is easy to say you hoped to do better in saves but the other stats make up for a lot of warts your starting pitchers may have. To put it another way, oftentimes tenth round closers turn out like Chad Qualls.



[ July 31, 2010, 05:00 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

I agree with others that the draft for the first 20 picks wa ptetty good.I like how you put just good for your 5th and 6th round picks with Jimenez and Kershaw,are you kidding me probably the best players on the board at the time and you nailed them both,i would say super great picks.

I love the value with Earvin Santana and i drafted Coglan everywhere and he was really coming on.I think the promblem is the waiver wire and taking care of your money,youve got to do better than Asdrubal Cabrera. Hinske way too much did you bid on Johnny Gomes or Wiggington or many others who were gold. good luck

RE Papi...I am agreeing that I got great value out of him. I agree that my lower third and FA pickups have been the problem. I think you need one to three stud pickups and I havent really hit on any. I also agree that you need to find a stud in 21-30 and maybe 1-2 regulars which I did not.

I am tied with you in the players lost celebration category