Cold Hard Look 3-Gekko

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:36 am

Gekko is in my league. Unlike his virtual persona, he is a nice, easy going guy...fun to talk fantasy baseball with. At the draft it was clear that he had drafted a pretty solid team.

Looking at his past achievements and this year's results, with two teams in top 20, it is clear that G is going to be a force wherever he plays. His was the second team I looked at to examine where I went off target.

Gekko already did a post draft breakdown of his team, I think I remember reading it in April. Nevertheless here is my interpretation:

He drafted from 9 hole and

1 Tulo

2 Halladay

3 McAnn

4. McCutch

5 Ethier

Of the first 5, only McCutch was taken aslightly above slot. It is clear that G has a clear idea of who he wants and what he has to pay to get them. After 5 rds, he has an ace, a SS, a C...so two scarce positions filled. Tulo, Im sure he projected to have Braun like numbers, and McAnn, he was sacrificing some #s for a position.

Interestingly, Tulo , McUtch and Ethier have only given 50-75 cents on the dollar, but G is still successful.

6 Car Gonzls

7 Carpenter

8 Uggla

9 Borbon

10 Weeks

Borbon has been a bust, but other four have all returned 1-3 round value. This is where the power of G's draft was. Obviously he loved CGo, as documented in his postings and slotted him up one rd approximately. Uggla and Weeks are top 3 2nd basemen...easily outperforming higher picks like Phillips, Zobrist, Hill, Roberts

11 Vlad

12

Denpster

13 Nunez

14 Konerko

15 Frasor

Once again, G hit hard here, only missing on Frasor. Vlad has put up monster numbers, Konerko has got 3rd rd numbers, Nunez has been a solid closer and Dempster a solid starter. Really he is hitting on 80% of his picks at this juncture

16 Nick Johnson

17 J Willghm

18 Masterson

19 Rauch

20 Blanton

WHether it was better information, better foresight or just luck, G hit on a top closer at 19 (at least until trade deadline). He also hit on a solid 4th with Willingham

Picks 21-30 yielded:

Crisp (who was dropped early)

Pudge (also dropped and then reacquired)

Padilla

Hellickson

Zito

Uribe

Gio Gonz

Niese and Fredd Gonz

Many of these guys were dropped. SOme wer reaquired. But how many teams got more out of their 21-30 picks? Hellick, Gio, Padilla, Uribe are all starting in his lineup.

With respect to add-drops, G made two major moves, money wise. He got Holland for 271 and then dropped him two weeks later and Chris Snyder for 161 in week 2. He has spent a lot of time trying to fill the second c spot and now that Rauch is gone, the second reliever spot.

Other then the 2 big money pick ups, G spends in small increments and often stays ahead of the pack to get players before they get too expensive.

His big adds wer And Torres in week 6, Padilla re-acq, Pennington K Kendrick as he was getting hot. Other then that the adds have been unremarkable. He added and dropped Bautista, which would have probably left him in 1st place had he not dropped him in week 3.

Both Q and G had limited 3-4 player success in FA draft. Both are quick witht he trigger finger and get a bit antsy with add-drops. G had enormous success throughout the draft...the result of knowing the player pool inside-out. He found great bargains right through to Gio Gonz in round 28. With respect to add-drops, G is ahead of the pack usually. This does not always translate into success, but just having that ability is valuable.

Top to bottom this has to be one of the best drafts. Step one for me next year, will be to get a better grasp on the player pool. Being able to fill in 6-15 with studs like Konerko, Vlad, Uggla, Car Go, allows you to fill in positional scarcities. Being able to rely upon getting contributors from 15-30 also gives significant freedom.

As a side note, other then Tulo and Nick Johnson, G has had enormous health. Nick you really couldnt expect to stay healthy and he has had some luck with perennially injured guys like Vlad and Weeks.

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:59 am

Good review. He obviously has a great feel for getting production out of mid late round guys.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 11:31 am

Thank you for the write-up.

One point to note is that even with Bautista I wouldn't be much higher in the rankings. I'm almost maxed out in hr and rbi as it is. Now if Borboner was Pierre or R.Davis, then I'd be close to the top.

Quack & Willy · Post by **Quack & Willy** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 1:01 pm

Who is this Padilla guy?

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Tue Aug 17, 2010 12:47 pm

looks like i lost willingham to a season ender.

Ando · Post by **Ando** » Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:01 pm

Mark, Willingham owners lost him about July 8th.

Money · Post by **Money** » Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:21 pm

This was a GREAT analysis to a GREAT draft. A lot to be learned here. Keep the thread going Gekko, it's all you've got.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:51 pm

Originally posted by Ando:

Mark, Willingham owners lost him about July 8th.

at least i know my 1st waiver drop this week

Ando · Post by **Ando** » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:14 pm

Yes, I struggled with that this week. I narrowed it down to Cust and Stubbs. Dropped Cust. I'd rather have a no-brainer like Willingham this week.

Ando · Post by **Ando** » Tue Aug 17, 2010 3:15 pm

I meant last week, not this week!

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Tue Aug 17, 2010 4:46 pm

Yep, too bad on Willingham. I had him in 3 leagues. Definite steal back in March imho. But since early July, he's been horrible. I'm actually glad he's done for the year so I stop starting him every week!

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Tue Aug 17, 2010 11:28 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:

But since early July, he's been horrible. I'm actually glad he's done for the year so I stop starting him every week! we think alike!!

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Tue Aug 17, 2010 11:31 pm

Originally posted by Schwks:

Step one for me next year, will be to get a better grasp on the player pool. player pool knowledge comes from doing what i consider a lot of leagues, playing in 45 round slow draft format (causes you to think more and look up lots of players), and simply investing more time. good luck

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Aug 18, 2010 3:01 am

Thanks Fast Money. It is truly interesting doing arm chair quarterbacking. What fascinates me is what enables the top guys to consistently nail their player analysis. With so much luck (look at what many past winners are doing this year)how do certain guys always gravitate to the top? I have the subject for my next post...just need a bit of time.

On Willingham...after the draft when I started looking at picks, I felt like I really missed out on him. Post draft, I felt like he had a chance to be a poor man's version of Werth this year. A guy who has hit for good power/rbi numbers but needed full time ABs, which he was going to get.

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 7:12 am

Player pool knowledge comes from watching them play. By far the most effective way. Slow drafts will not give you a feel for player talent levels like watching them.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 7:57 am

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Player pool knowledge comes from watching them play. By far the most effective way. Slow drafts will not give you a feel for player talent levels like watching them. That's part of it. The thing I like about mocking/slow drafts is not the player evaluation aspect but rather the game theory element.

A draft is a constant balancing act of hitting versus pitching, speed versus power, saves versus strikeouts, C/MI versus CI/OF.

Doing mocks and slow drafts is a great way to get a feel for the best way to build a team, based on how you have evaluated the talent at every position.

[ August 19, 2010, 01:57 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 8:36 am

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Player pool knowledge comes from watching them play. By far the most effective way. Slow drafts will not give you a feel for player talent levels like watching them. I watch a lot of baseball. I think Gekko and others have proven that you need not watch to be good at this fantasy game.

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 8:56 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Player pool knowledge comes from watching them play. By far the most effective way. Slow drafts will not give you a feel for player talent levels like watching them. That's part of it. The thing I like about mocking/slow drafts is not the player evaluation aspect but rather the game theory element.

A draft is a constant balancing act of hitting versus pitching, speed versus power, saves versus strikeouts, C/MI versus CI/OF.

Doing mocks and slow drafts is a great way to get a feel for the best way to build a team, based on how you have evaluated the talent at every position. [/QUOTE]Very true. I dont do mocks but but I could see where it could certainly help in the game theory aspect for most folks. I don't however think it will help understand a players talent level other than perhaps forcing you to take a closer look at a player you may have been sleeping on and things like that.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:06 am

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Player pool knowledge comes from watching them play. By far the most effective way. Slow drafts will not give you a feel for player talent levels like watching them. chad trying to tell ME how I obtain player pool knowledge?

too funny.

i watch the total of about 3 games in a year. my player pool knowledge certainly hasn't come from watching players.

[ August 19, 2010, 03:10 PM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:11 am

Mine comes from watching baseball. Cannot imagine anything being more effective than that if you are able to evaluate talent. You cannot see holes in swings etc. reading a book. But do what works for you. You know what you are doing and even know when to sit two start pitchers for one start guys. Great knack for the game obviously.

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:13 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Player pool knowledge comes from watching them play. By far the most effective way. Slow drafts will not give you a feel for player talent levels like watching them. chad trying to tell ME how I obtain player pool knowledge?

too funny.

i watch the total of about 3 games in a year. my player pool knowledge certainly hasn't come from watching players. [/QUOTE]Why the edit? I said absolutely nothing about how you obtain your player pool knowledge. How you come up with that is laughable and makes no sense whatsoever.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:19 am

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Mine comes from watching baseball. Cannot imagine anything being more effective than that if you are able to evaluate talent. You cannot see holes in swings etc. reading a book. i don't need to see anything. watching players is a waste of time in my opinion. STATS tell me everything i need to know.

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:20 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Mine comes from watching baseball. Cannot imagine anything being more effective than that if you are able to evaluate talent. You cannot see holes in swings etc. reading a book. i don't need to see anything. watching players is a waste of time in my opinion. STATS tell me everything i need to know. [/QUOTE]I think you would be really devastating if you combined your knowledge of stats with player evaluating. Seeing how a guy looks at the plate is important for making lineup decisions for me. Surprised you don't utilitze that valuable weapon.

[ August 19, 2010, 03:26 PM: Message edited by: Cocktails and Dreams ]

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:23 am

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Mine comes from watching baseball. Cannot imagine anything being more effective than that if you are able to evaluate talent. You cannot see holes in swings etc. reading a book. i don't need to see anything. watching players is a waste of time in my opinion. STATS tell me everything i need to know. [/QUOTE]How do STATS rate Padilla and Moyer?

[/QUOTE]

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Thu Aug 19, 2010 9:24 am

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

How does STATS rate Padilla and Moyer?

i'm not sure. i'm about ready to book a trip via Amtrak but would like to do so at a discounted fare. seeing how they allegedly chipped in $12,500 to be your silent partner in a fantasy football leagues (and then never spoke to you :rolleyes: ), i thought you might have the phone number from someone at Amtrak.