NFBC Message Boards

First let me say that when reviewing teams that have not fared well, the owners tend to get upset and think it is attacking their skills. Irrespective of what he does this year, CC, to me, is always the standard against whom everyone else is measured. Additionally, he is remarkably free and easy going with his player evaluations, strategies and responds to virtually every PM. It is no wonder that the NFBC roots for him like people did for Tiger pre-issues. So I hope CC takes this in the light in which it is meant...for me to learn.



CC LV weekend 2 team is in 163 place and 4th or 5th in his league. He drafted fromt he 10 spot and Longwood, our current leader is in first place overall and is in his league.



Here is the draft:



1. Tulo

2. Lince

3. B Upton

4 Zobrist

5 Beckett



We all know what CC was thinking with Tulo since he talked about it post draft. To me this was a great pick anywhere in the first round. A SS who really projected with 5 category numbers, young, relatively healthy, on a good team.



From there, CC went off his usual path and took Lince near top of 2nd round. My guess is that he projected Lince's 2009 numbers which were dominant in 4 categories...which if repeated are a bargain at 2-5.



But then safter Lince, I think CC was shooting to still fill his 75-75 with top 4 picks instead of top 3. This increased the pressure and led to reaches. Reaches are tough in picks 1-5 BJ has not had the type of season CC anticipated since 07. Zobrist had one good year. So instead of building the hitting core, he added relative gambles. (of note BJ and Zobrist have picked it upin last 2 weeks)



Beckett at 5 was a solid pick that has inexplicably failed.



Reviewing 1-5, CC had 5 relative misses...leaving him with almost insurmountable task.



6 CarGo

7 Bruce

8 Alexei

9 Montero

10 Loney



CarGo made up for one of those first five misses since he has basically put up #1 type numbers. Bruce Alexei and Loney have basically lived up to their slots, but none gave excess value and Montero has been good but missed too much of the season.



11 Slowey

12 G Jones

13 C Perez

14 Hudson

15 Glaus



Slowey, G Jones have slightly underperformed where they were selected. Glaus had a great 6 weeks and otherwise has been awful. Hudson was a grand slam, semi making up for Lince's just good season.



Chris Perez is what I took out of this draft. CC missed on his first closer whom he took late. Perez gave up the closer job when Wood came off DL and was not great up until then. AS can be seen later, CC missed on closers at 13, 17, 25, 26. This caused him to be spending money and focus, chasing closers all season long. Despite a ton of FAAB, CC is last in his league in saves, meaning no chance at competing in overall.



16. C Jackson

17 Madson

18 Maybin

19 Bailey

20 Francouer



5 misses and Madson fails to retain closer job due to injury



21-30 were actually decent yielding Carlos Santana, Colby Lewis (22 and CC's best pick other then Hudson) Pudge, Melky



Gutierrez and Motte were also selected here. Gutier was given a shot several times in closer role but failed. Motte, CC added and dropped several times.



CC's big money adds were Snyder for 179, Corpas 179 and Blalock 147. He also tried the following as closers: R Perez, Baez, Motte , Putz (twice), Herredia, Oliver, Beltre, Hanrahan, Dotel, Demel



CC's best pick ups were Zito, Cahill, Wallace. His current roster is:



Marson, Montero

Loney

Zobrist

Glaus

Tulo

Alexei

Bruce

Cargo

G Jones

LaPorta

Upton and Moreland



His pitching is Beckett, Cahill, Lewis, Lince, Slowey, Hudson, Guthrie, Perez, Hanrahan



I took away from this that a) stick with what has worked for you. There has to be a reason why 75-75 in first 3 worked for CC in the past...maybe he is a better SP evaluator b)I think you can gamble on one closing spot, but if so the other one should be a relative strength. Due to nature of closers this is tough...but trying to fill two spots at closer when everyone is focused on getting the same guys...is too tough and depletes you attention and FAAB. c) slots 1-5 maybe should not be for guys who are as risky as Upton and Zobrist d) slots 16-20 need to produce...these are not throw away picks to gloss over. You need 2-3 guys to emerge from that group

I'm really enjoying this "series" of draft & season reviews. Keep up the great work.



Glenn

Doug-



I'll respond to this when the season is over. Players value's can change a lot in 6 weeks.

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Doug-



I'll respond to this when the season is over. Players value's can change a lot in 6 weeks. Still time to climb the ranks Zobrist!

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Doug-



I'll respond to this when the season is over. Players value's can change a lot in 6 weeks. Still time to climb the ranks Zobrist! [/QUOTE]You never know when the hot streaks is coming.

Funny after I read this, I realized that BJ Upton is really only 25 batting points away from being a 3rd rd solid pick. Zobrist pounded out #7 last night.

I guess it is all perspective...How much are stolen bases worth to you in the third round for each team and how much more was expected out of Upton in the other four categories.

I would guess most of his owners expected a lot more.



Here are two sets of stats:



.278-67-9-51-15

.242-67-11-43-35



The second set of stats are Upton's.

The first set is Chase Headley.

The 2010 fantasy baseball season is over, but the 2011 planning has started. Last year I called October the reflection period of fantasy baseball. I looked back at my draft and how I managed my NFBC main event team to see where I could improve my fantasy game. In addition to my team I looked at four other NFBC main event teams. I wanted to look at how other owner’s played. With a couple of different styles, it might help other players improve on their draft and team management during the year.



The year was my worse year in the NFBC main event. It doesn’t help that I had two teams in the main event. I’m not the hedge kind of player. If I like a player and he is there in a round I want to draft him, I’m going to double up. It didn’t help that I had two similar draft picks (10, 11). If I had an early position, my draft decisions would have been totally different and thus a different team make up.



There was a post the NFBC drafts in mid August by Doug Langholz. He was doing a series reflecting back on some of the top team’s drafts in 2010. I wasn’t a top team this year, but he wanted to take a look at what I’ve done because of what I’ve done in the past. In the baseball world a lot can change in a short period of time. A player that looks like a bum can save his season and it doesn’t look like that bad of a pick. Doug is player that is always looking at ways to be better at the game. In response to his post, I told him I would respond after the year. I’m not big on mid season report cards. He posted my draft from the 2nd weekend from Las Vegas. I’m going to look at both of my drafts at the same time and give some insight of what I was thinking at the time.



When Fanball bought the NFBC, it gave us the ability to look at our old teams. Going into this season, I had these totals for my league points – 119.5, 118, 93.5, 124, 108, and 130.5. I had four first place and one second place finish. I averaged 115.5 points per year. I thought the most interesting things was before 2009 I was in first place in my main event league on June 15 every year and I never gave up the lead until after August 15 in two years. Last year I was talking to Quahogs about this. I told him in 2009 I wasn’t going to get into first by June 15. I moved into the lead a couple of weeks later and never gave up the lead. In 2006, I lost my ace Francisco Liriano and Mike Mussina and both of my closers Huston Street and Jonathan Papelbon in the middle of August. The last six week of the year I couldn’t fix saves and I ruin my ERA and whip chasing wins with bad double starters.



The first thing I wanted to do before I looked my drafts was to reflect on what I did in all the categories that past 7 years. Here are my totals each year:



2004: BA: .2814, R: 1247, HR: 313, RBI: 1167, SB: 128, W: 82, ERA: 3.921, WP: 1.255, K’s 1317, SV’s: 96

2005: BA: .2761, R: 1172, HR: 272, RBI: 1043, SB: 174, W: 101, ERA: 3.678, WP: 1.244, K’s: 1252, SV’s: 83

2006: BA: .2915, R: 1118, HR: 258, RBI: 1087, SB: 157, W: 91, ERA: 4.546, WP: 1.343, K’s: 1165, SV’s: 73

2007: BA: .2816, R: 1109, HR: 244, RBI: 1086, SB: 179, W: 110, ERA: 3.743, WP: 1.269, K’s: 1285, SV’s: 74

2008: BA: .2754, R: 1144, HR: 235, RBI: 983, SB: 169, W: 90, ERA: 3.595, WP: 1.244, K’s: 1248, SV’s: 62

2009: BA: .2773, R: 1077, HR: 280, RBI: 1075, SB: 179, W: 102, ERA: 3.544, WP: 1.232, K’s 1369, SV’s: 91





2010: BA: .2565, R: 952, HR: 226, RBI: 981, SB: 119, W: 110, ERA: 3.685, WP: 1.290, K’s 1315, SV’s: 67

2010: BA: .2626, R: 999, HR: 243, RBI: 1031, SB: 167, W: 107, ERA, 3.942, WP: 1.273, K’s 1253, SV’s: 41





My first observation is the decline in homeruns by my teams from 2004 to 2008. Four out of my last five teams, my wins have been solid. Steals have been strong every year since 2004 except my first weekend in Vegas team (Jimmy Rollins injury).





Here are the category goals I needed to hit in 2010:





BA: .2733, R: 1058, HR: 253, RBI: 1015, SB: 170, W: 104, ERA: 3.587, WP: 1.247, K’s: 1317, SV’s: 83



There was a decline in offense except for steals.



Wins and K’s increased. ERA and Whip were lower than the past couple of years.



Here are my two drafts:



1-Troy Tulowitzki (SS) I Both Teams I In mid August this looked like a bad pick, but Troy caught fire in September (.322, 30, 15, 40, and 2). He saved his season and he finished 1st among shortstop in HR’s and RBI despite missing 5 weeks. He finished 2nd in average and 3rd in runs. On both teams I use Jonathan Herrera as his replacement - .310, 16, 1, 12, and 1. I thought Herrera would steal more bases with Tulowitzki out. Overall he was the best SS in baseball and worth a first round pick.



2-Jimmy Rollins (SS) I LV1 I This could have been the turning point of my first draft. I struggled with my 2nd round pick heading into the draft. I thought about doubling up at SS and I dismissed it before I went to Vegas. The night before the draft I pretty much knew that Joey Votto was the right pick. I just couldn’t pull the trigger. Ellsbury was in play for me and he was another bust. My other consideration was Matt Holiday. Votto was the best pick because first base ended up being a weak position this year. Once I took Rollins, I was looking for Billy Butler in round 5 (another player that under performed).



2-Tim Lincecum (SP) I LV2 I The way the starting pitching was flying up the board; I decided to take a SP in round two in this draft. My first choice was Roy Halladay. He was major difference over Tim Lincecum. It was change in style for me, but I liked what I saw from my earlier draft. Lincecum wasn’t the elite pitcher he was in the past. I could still win with him, but he was the difference maker he needed to be.



3-Zack Greinke (SP) I LV1 I When I was planning for the drafts, I never saw Greinke slide to the back end of round three. My plan was to take a pitcher in round 5 and 6. I wanted Clayton Kershaw as my ace and was looking for Cole Hamels as my number two in this draft. Just like many teams, I want two of the top 20 starters. There were about five I wasn’t interested in. When Greinke slid, I thought my ace would be better than expected and it would give me two rounds to decide on my second starter. By taking Greinke, I was going off plan for the 2nd time. If you start to free lance, you better know where you want to go during the draft. Greinke was strike two for me in this draft.



3-BJ Upton (OF) I LV2 I Someone asked me about BJ Upton before the drafts. I thought he was a player with a unique skill set. He has the ability to hit 20+ Hr’s and steal 50+ bases. I could live with 18 HR’s and 42 SB’s, but he killed me in batting average. I thought he might hit .260 -.270. He wasn’t a bust, but he gave me a severe hit in BA. If I didn’t get Upton, I would have taken Andrew McCutchen in round 4. McCutchen had less steals (33), but he was a positive in BA (.286).



4-Ben Zobrist (2B) I Both Teams I What can I say when you make your bed, you have to lie in it. I thought Ben Zobrist would hit 3rd and give me 20+ homeruns and 15 SB’s. He was 2nd among second basemen in steals, 9th in runs, and 7th in RBI. He killed me in batting average and hurt me in HR’s. If he hit 15 Hr’s and stole 25 bases, it would have been a good pick if his batting average didn’t tank. At the All Star break, he was hitting .285 with 47 R, 5 HR’s, 41 RBI, and 19 SB’s. I felt like he was in the game. With a run in homers, his number wouldn’t be that bad. After the break, he had a game where he stole 2 bases in the first inning. I thought he was going to get hot. He left that game with a tight back. It was a slow death after that point. He hit .177 after the All Star break. Zobrist just adds to the list of fourth round busts 2nd baseman in my fantasy career – Rickie Weeks and Bill Hall come to mind.



5-Matt Wieters (C) I LV1 I The catcher position was brutal in 2010. If I didn’t have my head up my ass, I would have taken Carlos Gonzalez on the 5/6. It was something I did in three other drafts. Wieters was another batting average drag. He does have talent, but 2010 wasn’t a year when he showed it. He put up 2nd catchers numbers in the 5th round. I gave away this pick. Its official cancer has set in.



5-Josh Beckett (SP) I LV2 I This was a very frustrating pick for me. He wasn’t a guy I really liked in 2010. He was in my neutral category. I drafted 12 mixed drafts and drafted him on one team. In the past I’ve timed Josh Beckett pretty well. He’s helped me win two main event titles and I’ve avoided his bad years. Well payback is a bitch. Cole Hamels was there, but I shied away because he got racked during a spring training game that week. Ubaldo Jimenez was the next pitcher on my board.



6-Ubaldo Jimenez (SP) I LV1 I This was a homerun, but it’s amazing he didn’t win 20 games. He had 16 wins by the end of the July. In the end he put you in position to win, but he was a drag late in the season. He had only 3 wins after the last two months of the year and a 4.34 ERA in September.



6-Carlos Gonzalez (OF) I LV2 I He was the reason it was ok to take a pitcher in the 2nd round. He gave my fist round value in round 6. This team would be on track after 6 rounds if Beckett wasn’t a bust. I had two .300+ hitters and two .240 hitters. My team was hitting .283 with 367 runs, 89 HR’s, 349, and 102 SB’s. Overall offensively I was still in the game.



7-Carlos Quentin (OF) I LV1 I He was another batting average whiff. His 26 HR’s and 87 RBI were respectable. I was one pick away from Carlos Gonzalez. It wouldn’t have saved the franchise, but it would have improved the team. He also missed 31 games.



7-Jay Bruce (OF) I Both Teams – R8 LV1 I He was another player who somewhat saved his season the last 6 weeks of the year. Going into the year, I was thinking maybe a 25/90 guy. He was 20 RBI short. He started losing at bats in September.



8-Alexei Ramirez (SS) I LV2 I He filled my MI on my second Las Vegas team. He finished 5th in HR’s among SS with a solid BA. He didn’t do anything great, but he helped across the board. This team is still in the game.



9-Denard Span (OF) I LV1 I This team needed another base stealer. Span declined in power and his batting average was negative. He was a low level Judy. I thought he would hit over .280 with 10 HR’s and 30+ steals.



9-Miguel Montero (C) I LV2 I He was another underperforming player. He was hurt in early April. I was able to buy his replacement Chris Snyder. Between the two players they hit 17 HR’s with 52 R and 63 RBI. It isn’t 9th round value, but I was able to get enough out of this position. I did take a hit in batting average from Snyder (.2138)



10-Chris Davis (1B) I LV1 I I think this pick sealed this team’s fate. I didn’t think Smoak was ready to be called up so some. Davis took the hit for the Rangers slow start. I bought Justin Smoak and he was just another batting average bust. Paul Konerko was the only first baseman that would have helped this team. Garrett Jones, James Loney, and Michael Cuddyer were all going in this area of the draft. Each player hurt you in different way. Smoak really hurt my buying power.



10-James Loney (1B) I LV2 I The one thing you thought you could count on from him disappeared – batting average. He hit .211 after the All Star break. The lack of power development is his biggest downfall. There is no better reason than these two selection for taking Joey Votto in the 2nd round. In my mind you had one out – Paul Konerko. I drafted Michael Cuddyer on another team. Each player hurt my chances of winning.



11-Vlad Guerrero (DH) I LV1 I He was the first hitter picked after Tulo in this draft I got right. If I drafted him on more teams in this area, I would have had a better season. He is a player that should have been ranked higher.



11-Kevin Slowey (SP) I LV2 I In this draft, I was looking to protect whip. I thought Kevin Slowey had excellent command. He struggled early, but he did win 13 games. His whip was higher than I expected. I could have done better for sure.



12-Chipper Jones (3B) I LV1 I This was a rules change player I thought would have more value. I knew he missed a lot of time, but I thought he would play well when he was on the field and I could use someone else to complement him. It never worked out and someone told me Jones wasn’t my style. He wasn’t and I paid the price.



12-Garrett Jones (1B) I LV2 I He wasn’t a horrible corner, but he was a batting average drag. He did more in a half a season in 2009. He hit .215 after the All Star break. He did enough to keep this team in the running.



13-Clay Buchholz (SP) I LV1 I He pitched very well and he was a nice third pitcher on this team. The only thing that was a disappointment was the strikeouts. He ended up with 120 in 173.2 innings. You really need 150+ from your 3rd starter. David Price was the best pitcher taken in this area of the draft. The 2nd weekend of the NFBC, I kind of shied away from Buchholz because of a poor start in spring training.



13-Chris Perez (CL) I LV2 I I thought Kerry Wood was all done and he would close all year. I missed on him the first weekend when the Wood news came out in the draft. I need more saves from my first closer. This is what I deserve for cheating closers.



14-Leo Nunez (CL) I LV1 I I thought he was a decent backend closer. He did a good job until he started to struggle in August. I did picked up Hensley on this team, but I cut him before he took over. It cost this team 7 saves.



14-Tim Hudson (SP) I LV2 I His K’s fell a bit short even with 228.2 innings pitched. It was a solid pick, but again I need more K’s from this pick. He was the 4th starter on this team.



15-Francisco Liriano (SP) I LV1 I All in all it was a pretty solid season from him. He struggle late, but he did strike out 200 batters. It was a break for me to get him this late. Overall my starting staff looked pretty solid on draft day.



15-Troy Glaus (3B) I LV2 and LV1 round 17 I This pick was great until mid June after that he struggled with a knee problem. I just didn’t read into the injury quick enough and I did a poor job replace him. I rode him in to the ground.



16-Ervin Santana (SP) I LV1 I He wasn’t great, but he had K’s and wins. He was a good 5th starter.



16-Conor Jackson (OF) I LV2 I This was a bust pick and a position I struggled to fix all year. I’ll look at how I addressed it later. Cory Hart was the play here. I dropped the ball.



17-Ryan Madson (RP) I LV2 and LV1 round 21 I He had the job to start the year. In my mind I thought he might keep it and Lidge have more of a problem. He started the year as the closer. He wasn’t great and he then kicked something and broke his foot. The 17th was too early to draft him. When you wait on closers, you are forced to make gamble picks.



18-Lastings Milledge (OF) I LV1 I This team was short speed. I thought Milledge was a 15/20 guy. As it turns out, he was a bad pick. I thought I could have drafted Chris Young, but he went two picks before me. If I wasn’t looking for speed and power, I might have taken Delmon Young.



18-Cameron Maybin (OF) I LV2 and LV1 round 19 I I was looking for speed and some power. I whiffed here. Chris Young was on the board. I gave away the last two hitter picks in this draft. I was shopping in the right area, but I bought the wrong player. Young has had success before. He should have been ranked higher on my board than Maybin. If I draft Hart and Young, how much better does this team look?



19-Homer Bailey (SP) I LV2 I He got hurt early in the year. He wasn’t good enough player to carry on my roster while he was out. I waited too long for my 5th starter.



20-Jon Rauch (CL) I LV1 I I thought it was a break to get a closer this late in the draft. He worked out for half the year. I knew he was going to lose the job. My plan was to draft Chris Perez in the next round. The problem the Kerry Wood news broke during the break. He never made it too me.



20-Jeff Francoeur (OF) I LV2 I This team has its 3rd problem in the OF. Delmon Young went two picks before me. I was going to draft him. My draft decisions were very weak in this draft.



21-Ivan Rodriguez (C) I LV2 I This pick has absolutely no upside. He was on the down side of his career and I knew I was going to take Carlos Santana later in this draft. It’s just another decision that hurts my chance of having success.



22-Luke Gregerson (RP) I LV1 I I had just taken 3 closers inside of round 20. There was no way I should have been taking a closer in waiting here. The next pick was Carlos Santana. Even though he didn’t work out he was the upside pick. I really don’t know why I was off of John Buck. I drafted him in my first draft of the year. I thought he would hit double digit homeruns in Toronto.



22-Colby Lewis (SP) I LV2 I This pick makes up for my Bailey pick. It gave me a 5th solid starter before Beckett went down.



23-Adam Moore (C) I LV1 I I remember thinking of this decision in Vegas. Was a full year of Adam Moore worth more than 4 months of Carlos Santana? On this day, I thought Moore was worth more. Boy was I wrong. A week later I was more in the Santana camp.



23-Carlos Santana (C) I LV2 I The Santana injury really hurt my chances of winning in a couple of drafts. I was in the wrong rookie camp for sure. I thought he would have been up earlier and I didn’t expect Posey to have that kind of power. Posey was gone earlier in this draft.



In my first draft, I made a bad decision in round 24. I took Scott Feldman when Colby Lewis was still on the board. I gambled on Jeremy Hellickson, but I cut him early when it looked like he wasn’t going to be called up too early. I drafted Trevor Cahill, but I cut him. I was able to get him back. Jose Guillen helped replace one of my poor outfielders for awhile.



The second weekend I did a poor job in the reserves.



Weekend one was a train wreck so I’ll look at how I tried to fix some my draft problems.



Here’s my starting lineup:



C-Miguel Montero

C-Ivan Rodriguez/Carlos Santana

1B-James Loney

2B-Ben Zobrist

3B-Troy Glaus

SS-Troy Tulowitzki

MI-Alexei Ramirez

C0-Garret Jones

OF-Carlos Gonzalez

OF Jay Bruce

OF-BJ Upton

OF-Conor Jackson

OF-Cameron Maybin

DH-Jeff Francoeur



SP-Tim Lincecum

SP-Josh Beckett

SP-Kevin Slowey

SP-Tim Hudson

SP-Homer Bailey

SP-Colby Lewis

SP-Ton Gorzelanny

CL-Chris Perez

CL-Ryan Madson



I drafted two closers in waiting Jason Motte and Juan Gurierrez.



When the season started, I knew I was short a starter and I was weak at closer.



I did a bad job at the draft with my decision making and team structure. Next year there’s no way I cheat saves like this year. I paid the price. My first three bats were wrong this year. For my style, it works best with a player like Carl Crawford or Jose Reyes when he was healthy. Unfortunately there are limited players with those skill sets. BJ Upton was my Carl Crawford minus the batting average. The ideal fist three pick this year for me would have been – Tulowitzki, Votto, and Upton or McCutchen. I would have had been short speed after three, but other numbers would have been inline.



By drafting Lincecum, I might have thought I had better numbers in the front of my staff. If he strikes out 40 more batters and post a 2.50 ERA and under 1.00 whip, I might have had more room for error.



When I look at my lineup, I see three weak spots – Jackson, Maybin, and Francoeur. Even though I owned Ivan Rodriguez, my 2nd catcher would look a lot better when Carlos Santana was called up. For 150 at bats, I did have a plus catcher except a drag in batting average. If Santana played longer, his BA could have improved.



So when I left the draft, I had five problems – three batters, one closer, and one starter.



The first waiver period before the season, I was concern with saves. I picked up Danys Baez and Rafael Perez. I backed up both of my closers just in case the first week. I dropped Tom Gorzelanny. He was player that would have helped me in K’s to start the year. The best pickup the first week was Angel Pagan for $9. He ended up being a difference maker. The best player dropped Coco Crisp.



In week two waivers I had to go after Chris Snyder. I won him for $179 to $149. He was a must buy after losing Montero. My replacement for Gorzelanny was Barry Zito ($56). I avoided most of Barry Zito’s bad stats. For my team he pitched 154 innings with 3.56 ERA, 1.227 whip, 106 K’s and 8 wins. I picked up Freddie Garcia for double starts. He pitched poorly. There were some nice players dropped – Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill, and Jonathan Niese. Coco Crisp was the best hitter picked up.



The next week I dropped Freddie Garcia for Jamie Moyer ($5). Daniel Hudson was picked up for $7. There were a couple of pitcher who help short term picked up Leake, Fister, and Padilla.



The first impact bat presents itself – Ty Wigginton ($201). I didn’t need middle infield help at the time. Brett Cecil ($1) was the best pitcher picked up. I didn’t pick up any players.



In week 5, I lose Ryan Madson. I pick up Jose Contreras $11. He gets the job, but he doesn’t save many games and then Lidge returns. I blow $46 on Jason Motte my next shot at a closer in waiting. Kris Medlen is dropped. Jhoulys Chacin is picked up for $143. I was not in the bidding. Ryan Raburn was picked up, but I bet he gets dropped again.



In week 6, I make my next big bid. I buy Manuel Corpas for $179. Street was out and he was the closer. He saved 9 games before blowing up. I go closer in waiting surfing again – Joel Hanrahan ($12) and J.J. Putz ($5). Kris Medlen was a starter I should have been interested in. He went for $41. Brennan Boesch was the first bat that would have helped.



After 6 weeks, I start to feel I’m short in homeruns. I make an aggressive bid for Hank Blalock ($147). The runner up was $112. I wish I would have lost out on him. It was a bad buy. I picked up Trevor Cahill for $14. It was a great buy, but he was only replacing Josh Beckett. I’m pretty sure I lost Homer Bailey about this time of year. Andres Torres ($5) was the best buy for sure. I wasn’t looking for speed. He ended up offering power and speed. Coco Crisp is dropped again.



The next week I speculated on Chris Davis ($5). John Axford ($5) was the first closer that would have helped. I didn’t think he would keep the job so I don’t bid on him. Madison Bumgarner goes for $30. He was a player I didn’t trust because of the drop in velocity of his fastball. He pitched well and I could have used him. I pick up another closer in waiting Sergio Santos ($17). Now I pass on a pitcher that gets a save and I take a shot on a closer in waiting for more dollars. Axford saves 24 games and won 8 games. I’d say he would have helped. Coco Crisp was picked up for $141. Eric Hinske ($29) would have offered some short term help.



Week 9 was the real first impact bat Neil Walker ($70). He was out of my price range. At this point, I‘m not looking for a corner person. Walker would have more value when he qualifies at 2B. Something we learn the first week he plays. Glaus was hot. James Loney and Garret Jones were putting up decent numbers. I picked up for Melky Cabrera ($9). Vincent Padilla ($9) was picked up. He pitched well for a couple of months.



In week 10, I make a bad double start pick up. I buy Carlos Monasterios for $34. I over spent for a no name starter. He gets bombed. Tommy Hunter ($18) was the right play this week. He went for $13. Jonathan Niese was good play this week. I was spending the right money, but I identified the wrong player.



After my miss in week 10, I buy J.J. Putz ($17), Matt LaPorta ($14), and Chris Tillman ($14). LaPorta was speculation play. The closer job in Chicago was getting shaky. I finally cut Homer Bailey a month too late. Mike Stanton is picked up for $670 and Jose Tabata ($223) well out of my price range.



In week 12, I lose Troy Tulowitzki. I replace him with Jonathan Herrera ($13). Pat Burrell is picked up for $11. I need more K’s so I add Manny Parra ($29). He gives me K’s, but he allows too many base runners.



The next week I pick up Jake Westbrook ($3) for double starts. He pitches well and wins both games. I also pick up Andy Oliver ($13). He pitches well his first start, but he gets racked the next week. I cut Manuel Corpas and pickup Matt Belisle ($1). Roger Bernadina went for $179 and Bill Hall ($31). Both players offered some help.



I’m chasing K’s and I cut Jake Westbrook. He would have helped me going forward. I pick up another unknown Omar Beltre ($16). He struggles his first start and he is in the minor his second. My next closer in waiting for the second time is Joel Hanrahan ($3). Jack Cust was a bat that would have helped. I was outbid $35 - $16. I was a week late with this pick up. He wasn’t an impact player, but he was a lineup upgrade for my team.



I pick up Brett Wallace for $11 in week 15. He never develops into anything. I’m searching for my Troy Glaus replacement. I also pick up Felipe Paulino ($1). He was injured and I thought he might pitch again. It would have made more sense to pick up Jack Westbrook for $1.Omar Infante went for $22. He had a nice run midsummer. He hit more homeruns than I expected. David Murphy was dropped.



In week 16 I was looking for another outfielder that might help. I bid $1 on Nate McLouth. The player I should have been interested in was David Murphy. He wasn’t picked up. I also add Jamie Moyer ($1).



The next impact bat arises in week 17 - Ryan Raburn. He goes for $24 which is probably out of my price range. He has the most value as a middle infielder. Ben Zobrist wasn’t dead on arrival just yet. Raburn would have helped my team in the outfield. I picked up Jeremy Guthrie ($3) – I win him in a tie. He wins both starts and pitches real well. I hold onto him. I take another shot on Cameron Maybin ($1). I pick up John Ely ($3). I thought he might get called back up. Brain Duensing was the pitcher to pick up. He went for $29. Homer Bailey was picked up for $4. He pitched well the last two months of the year. Wilson Betemit ($2) would have been a perfect Troy Glaus cover. I didn’t identify him as help. I was a couple of weeks late on him. He played well in August. Hong-Chih Kuo ($1) was a nice buy as closer in waiting.



In week 18, I’m looking for saves again Chris Ray ($3) and Sam Demel ($1). Danny Valencia ($19) offered help at 3B late in the year. It took him awhile to get going, but he helped in BA when he was giving you empty stats. Logan Morrison ($119) was help, but he was out of my range. I was out bid on Carlos Zambrano $10 - $3. Zambrano pitched well the last two months of the year. I must have been looking for a flash in speed. I added Chris Getz ($6).



The wind came out of this team sail when Carlos Santana went down. I replace him with Adam Moore ($1). I pick up Peter Bourjos ($2). I didn’t use him that much, but he did steal some bases and hit a couple homeruns. I added Tim Stauffer ($1). I thought he would get a chance to start in San Diego. David Murphy was picked this week for $6. He was player that helped down the stretch. I was asleep at wheel. Brandon Lyon was cut.



On August 15 there were two closers that helped down the stretch – Hong-Chih Kuo ($194) and Brandon Lyon ($37). With better money management, I could have bought Lyon. Axford and Lyon would have got me to a reasonable number in saves. I cut Tim Stauffer for Octavio Dotel ($8). I picked up Mitch Moreland ($9). He was a decent pick up. He hit 9 homeruns the last 6 weeks of the year. I play the catcher of the week – Lou Marson ($3).



Koji Uehara ($15) was another closer that helped late in the year. I picked up Ivan Nova ($5) for double starts. I took a shot that Bobby Parnell ($7) would close for the Mets. I’m back looking for the catcher of the week Adam Moore ($3).



I pick the bum starter of the week - Jason Marquis ($1). He was winless at the time, but he won both starts and pitched well. I pick up Jordan Walden ($11). I thought they would give a chance to get saves late in the year in LA. Nick Blackburn was good buy for $1. He pitched well until the last week of the year. Michael Morse ($17) helped in September.



In week 23, I pick up Melvin Mora ($3). Colorado was set to play 16 of their next 21 games at home and he was getting the starts at 3B. He didn’t player well the first seven games, but he did help for a couple of weeks. I wasted a couple of dollars on two pitchers that get hurt – Carlos Silva and Aaron Cook. Clay Hensley was a good buy for $1. He saved 7 games in September.



I pick up Ryan Madson ($1). Lidge was hurting and I thought he might get saves. Tim Stauffer ($5) get picked and a chance to start.



Mike Aviles ($23) was the best pickup in week 25. He played well the last three weeks of the year. I owned him in my other league when Jimmy Rollins got hurt. All he did was give me empty stats. He pushed a couple of teams over the top the last two weeks of the year. I picked up John Bowker ($3). He was playing every day for Pittsburgh. I added Justin Masterson ($1), Kyle Drabek ($1), Dan Johnson ($1) and Lou Marson ($1).



The last waiver period I picked up Evan Meek ($7), Craig Breslow ($3), and Chris Davis ($1).



I lost the league at the draft table. The Josh Beckett pick is what hurt my pitching staff the most. If I don’t blow that pick, my ERA and whip are inline. I still left the draft short starters. If I don’t hit on Trevor Cahill, it would have been more or a train wreck. My weakness in saves had me chasing them all year. I had an out with Axford, but I dismissed his chance at saves. There were saves to buy late if I did a better job with my money. I should have had more K’s because of my lack of saves. I never found those couple bats to fix my draft mistakes. My batting average was the big killer. Zobrist, Upton, Jones, and Glaus were too many at bats to handle with a low average. Matt LaPorta never developed. I was killed at 2nd catcher when Carlos Santana went down. I lost this league after round 15. I made too many mistakes and covering for my biggest draft weakness (saves).



I’ll be back in action over the next month. I’m going to look at Steve Jupinka’s winning team, Jamie Baird’s online team, Kelly Uganski’s main event, and Will Tyrer’s main event team.



[ October 10, 2010, 01:36 AM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

Shawn, you're the best.. ..always like reading your insight and evaluation.

First thanks for taking my posting in the light in which it was meant, and not taking offense. There is no shortage of respect for CC in this, or any, forum. If I could make one suggestion to your Mafia column, it would be to separate it into two articles, one on each team. Having the two together, made it difficult to track who you were accumulating on each squad.





Since I posted, Upton did in fact put up 3rd round, or close to third round numbers. Obviously he has a k'ing problem, as does his brother. Zobrist was a miss but not a complete loss.



I would actually like to see a look at k rates and there prognostication impact. By pure anecdotal evidence, it seems that guys with high k rates, even coming off of successful campaigns, pose higher risk of failure, irrespective of whether they are speed guys, power guys or combo thereof.



In re-reviewing CC's draft, I think that leaving the closer spots in such flux is a potentially crippling decision. In the online championship, I elected to go the same route...I hate closers and have difficulty forcing mycelf to draft them. In that draft, I took Frasor and Perez, both late.



This draft day decision, I believe cost me a chance at my league, and at least competing in the overall. Like CC, I was manic spending early on guys who did not pan out like Contreras, Gutierrez, SImon(cut him too fast). Mid season, mostly out of money and without a single success at closer, I punted the category, and still finished 2nd in the league and roughly 70th overall, with 17 saves.



I think if I take nothing else away from CC's season, you need at least one locked in closer with success rate behind him, or two guys who may not have that set of credentials, but will be given a long leash for whatever reason.



As CC has pointed out previously, a successful main event team will eventually need to nail a third closer for at least a portion of the season. Going in with none solid leads to focusing all time, effort and FAAB $ into a very limited pool, and also brings the dreaded need for luck, into the equation.



My second learning point relates to the catcher position. I just do not see that much of a difference between the top catchers and the bottom catchers to warrant a top ten pick.



I too took Montero around the 10th. Even pro rating out his stats, are they that much better then a guy like Paulino, Olivo...guys available in FA wire reasonably priced or late in draft? In my mind not worth the increased risk of injury, far more limited playing time and seemingly higher risk of non-performance.



SPs to me have too much risk to go in the first 4 rounds. Off the top of my head, I recall that Gekko went with Halladay in 2nd round and nearly won the whole thing. I know that Doc will go in first round in '11. In my mind, top four picks must be hitters. You can build a rotation around guys taken in 5-6th rounds of most drafts. In my mind, it is virtually impossible to build a hitting core after the first four rounds.



I thought to myself before the '10 season, you could probably get the top 4-5 sps if you wanted to, depending upon the flow of your individual draft. I considered doing a slow draft and going 1st Lince 2nd Halladay 3rd Felix or Greinke, 4th Haren...then punting either speed or power. Lince, Haren and greinke all underperformed and would have left me out of the money IMO...just one more piece of proof to me anyway.



Here are my questions: what will you do to alter your evaluation techniques? will you stray more rigid to a draft plan rather then go offtrack? what closer strategies would you consider?

I think it is important to make more draft decision before the draft. When I sat down the first weekend, I did't say: I hope I get Rollins in round 2 and Wieters in round 5. Grienke was never in my thought process. I should have a pretty good idea where I was going to go at mulitple positions. I've done well precicting draft flow in the past.



As for the closer, I just need to bite the bullet and draft a solid number one in rounds 8-10. How great would have it been to have a 40+ saves from that position? There were a few teams that had an edge at that posiiton this year.

Originally posted by Schwks:

First thanks for taking my posting in the light in which it was meant, and not taking offense. There is no shortage of respect for CC in this, or any, forum. If I could make one suggestion to your Mafia column, it would be to separate it into two articles, one on each team. Having the two together, made it difficult to track who you were accumulating on each squad.





Since I posted, Upton did in fact put up 3rd round, or close to third round numbers. Obviously he has a k'ing problem, as does his brother. Zobrist was a miss but not a complete loss.



I would actually like to see a look at k rates and there prognostication impact. By pure anecdotal evidence, it seems that guys with high k rates, even coming off of successful campaigns, pose higher risk of failure, irrespective of whether they are speed guys, power guys or combo thereof.



In re-reviewing CC's draft, I think that leaving the closer spots in such flux is a potentially crippling decision. In the online championship, I elected to go the same route...I hate closers and have difficulty forcing mycelf to draft them. In that draft, I took Frasor and Perez, both late.



This draft day decision, I believe cost me a chance at my league, and at least competing in the overall. Like CC, I was manic spending early on guys who did not pan out like Contreras, Gutierrez, SImon(cut him too fast). Mid season, mostly out of money and without a single success at closer, I punted the category, and still finished 2nd in the league and roughly 70th overall, with 17 saves.



I think if I take nothing else away from CC's season, you need at least one locked in closer with success rate behind him, or two guys who may not have that set of credentials, but will be given a long leash for whatever reason.



As CC has pointed out previously, a successful main event team will eventually need to nail a third closer for at least a portion of the season. Going in with none solid leads to focusing all time, effort and FAAB $ into a very limited pool, and also brings the dreaded need for luck, into the equation.



My second learning point relates to the catcher position. I just do not see that much of a difference between the top catchers and the bottom catchers to warrant a top ten pick.



I too took Montero around the 10th. Even pro rating out his stats, are they that much better then a guy like Paulino, Olivo...guys available in FA wire reasonably priced or late in draft? In my mind not worth the increased risk of injury, far more limited playing time and seemingly higher risk of non-performance.



SPs to me have too much risk to go in the first 4 rounds. Off the top of my head, I recall that Gekko went with Halladay in 2nd round and nearly won the whole thing. I know that Doc will go in first round in '11. In my mind, top four picks must be hitters. You can build a rotation around guys taken in 5-6th rounds of most drafts. In my mind, it is virtually impossible to build a hitting core after the first four rounds.



I thought to myself before the '10 season, you could probably get the top 4-5 sps if you wanted to, depending upon the flow of your individual draft. I considered doing a slow draft and going 1st Lince 2nd Halladay 3rd Felix or Greinke, 4th Haren...then punting either speed or power. Lince, Haren and greinke all underperformed and would have left me out of the money IMO...just one more piece of proof to me anyway.



Here are my questions: what will you do to alter your evaluation techniques? will you stray more rigid to a draft plan rather then go offtrack? what closer strategies would you consider? Poppycock!

I was going to cut out certain parts of the post, but I disagree with just about everything!

For now, I'll argue the point about not taking pitchers in the first four rounds due to risk.



Too much risk in the first four rounds taking pitchers?



I went back through a Main Draft last year and looked for the highest round pitcher that had injury or totally flopped. Ricky Nolasco in the sixth, although providing benefit before injury was the first one. Next was Javier Vazquez- A note to drafters- Next year, if Vazquez or Carl Pavano wears a Yankee uniform, stay far away.

In the meantime, Sizemore, Kinsler, Ellsbury, Rollins, Reyes, Pedroia, Youkilis, Morneau,(deep breath, go!) Morales, Bay, Kendrick, Beckham, Lind, Hill, Sandoval, and Brian Roberts were all giving the finger to drafters.

No wonder it was a pitchers year!

But to get to my point, pitchers are perceived to have more risk, really, do they?

They are harder to replace on our rosters. Going from Cliff Lee to Scott Feldman is a lot harder to take than going from Tulo to Herrera for a few weeks.

Maybe rosters fuels the perception.



Strasburg having Tommy John surgery made so much news that my wife even brought up his name to me, Youkilis getting hurt only seemed to be felt by Red Sox nation and his owners.

Maybe the press fuels the perception.



When it comes to injury, a pitcher, will be lost for a longer time than a position player. THAT, may be what scares the hell out of owners. And that, is probably the leading factor in some thinking that pitchers are riskier than hitters.

Hey, if there were not differing opinions on how to select a team, I guess this would not be any fun. As I prefaced my first Cold Hard Look by saying, I finished in the bottom 10-20% so take my musings with that significant grain of salt.