NFBC Message Boards

While we know there are still two long weeks of the MLB season left, congrats should go out to all teams that are still in the running for money finishes. It has been a tough, tough year of injuries and surprises, so if you've mastered this marathon you deserve some praise. CONGRATS.



This week I'm going to dive into the overall rankings a little bit and see if I can find any trends. In looking at the Top 20 leaders in the NFBC Main Event Overall Standings, it's interesting to see where the leaders drafted from. These aren't final, obviously, but through Monday night here's where those teams were on Draft Day:



No. 1 - 2 teams

No. 2 - 0 teams

No. 3 - 2 teams

No. 4 - 4 teams

No. 5 - 0 teams

No. 6 - 3 teams

No. 7 - 1 team

No. 8 - 1 team

No. 9 - 1 team

No. 10 - 3 teams

No. 11 - 0 teams

No. 12 - 1 team

No. 13 - 1 team

No. 14 - 0 teams

No. 15 - 1 team



Nos. 1-3 - 4 teams

Nos. 4-6 - 7 teams

Nos. 7-9 - 3 teams

Nos. 10-12 - 4 teams

Nos. 13-15 - 2 teams



The top overall team right now, Stephen Jupinka's Quahogs, drafted from the 12th spot in a very, very tough Las Vegas League 5 and currently leads that league with 40 points. He started out with Ryan Howard, Matt Holliday and Derek Jeter and has done a masterful job of in-season pickups.



Glenn Lowy is second overall and drafted from the 3 hole, getting Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum and Victor Martinez with his first three picks.



Mark Srebro is third overall and drafted from the 9th spot, starting with Troy Tulowitzki, Roy Halladay and Brian McCann. Mark is also the only owner with two teams in the Top 15 overall as his first weekend team that he drafted in Atlantic City also has a shot at a league title and is 15th overall. He drafted from the 6 hole there and started with Utley, Sandoval and Joey Votto.



So as you can see, people are winning from all over the place and doing it with several different combinations. In fact, the top 7 teams all drafted from different positions. They were: 12,3,9,1,4,15,10. Pretty amazing.



Of those teams in the Top 20, only two are currently in second place in their league: Anthony Palavis (17th overall, New York 1) and Kevin Schiller (18th overall, Las Vegas 7). Nine of the Top 15 teams overall have double-digit league leads, but six of those teams are still fighting for a league title as well as overall prize money.



Obviously, draft position is one of the ingredients involved in winning a league title, but getting a surprise breakout star is key too. Jose Bautista's ADP on Draft Day was 430, which means on average he went in the middle of the 28th round. He went undrafted in 10 Classic Leagues, so obviously he was also a key FAAB pickup for some teams. Amazing, but I think few of us saw this one coming.



Anyway, enjoy the numbers and I'll try to find some other interesting ones soon. Good luck all and remember that 2011 is just around the corner.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

These aren't final, obviously, but through Monday night here's where those teams were on Draft Day:



No. 1 - 2 teams

No. 2 - 0 teams

No. 3 - 2 teams

No. 4 - 4 teams

No. 5 - 0 teams

No. 6 - 3 teams

No. 7 - 1 team

No. 8 - 1 team

No. 9 - 1 team

No. 10 - 3 teams

No. 11 - 0 teams

No. 12 - 1 team

No. 13 - 1 team

No. 14 - 0 teams

No. 15 - 1 team



Nos. 1-3 - 4 teams

Nos. 4-6 - 7 teams

Nos. 7-9 - 3 teams

Nos. 10-12 - 4 teams

Nos. 13-15 - 2 teams

That is one way to look at it. Or we could also look at this way:



Nos 1-5 - 8 teams

Nos 6-10 - 9 teams

Nos 11-15 - 3 teams



Does that tell us anything more? It is all a matter of opinion. For me, it tells me my probability of success (and I believe the past 2 years have demonstrated similar results), when all other things are equal (which of course they are not), is greater in the first 2/3 of the draft than it is on the backend.

It could be Neal. But tell that to Jupinka, who drafted in your league from the 12th spot and appears to be on his way to a $100,000 payday.



And of course, each year is different. Last year the results were a little more balanced from the Top 25 teams:



No. 1: 1 team

No. 2: 1 team

No. 3: 2 teams

No. 4: 4 teams

No. 5: 2 teams

No. 6: 0 teams

No. 7: 0 teams

No. 8: 3 teams

No. 9: 2 teams

No. 10: 2 teams

No. 11: 2 teams

No. 12: 1 team

No. 13: 2 teams

No. 14: 2 teams

No. 15: 1 team





Teams 1-3: 4 teams

Teams 4-6: 6 teams

Teams 7-9: 5 teams

Teams 10-12: 5 teams

Teams 13-15: 5 teams

While Jose Bautista is definitely the bargain of 2010 with an ADP of 430, he wasn't alone in the bargains. Here are a few more:



Paul Konerko, ADP of 195

Delmon Young, ADP of 264

Aubrey Huff, ADP of 286



Heck, Carlos Gonzalez looks like THE bargain with an ADP of 94. Is he a Top 5 pick in 2011? What a crazy year Cargo has had.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

It could be Neal. But tell that to Jupinka, who drafted in your league from the 12th spot and appears to be on his way to a $100,000 payday.



My point is not that it can't be done. Jupinka has proven that he is talented enough that he could skip his first round pick all together and still be contending for the title. His success from the 12-spot does not invalidate the argument that the data above can be interpreted to say that your chances of success are better if you draft in the inside the TOP 10. My observation or question is whether your chances are in fact improved by your draft position. Did Jupinka in fact overcome a huge handicap, thus making his success all the more impressive? I don't know. But I do believe a look at only the Top 20 or 25 at the end is not sufficient enough to answer those questions.

Thanks for the mention Greg. How about that Sandoval pick in the 2nd (BEFORE VOTTO)!?!?! I suck!



ey, any word on when the slow drafts and draft champion formats will be ready to roll on the fanball draft software? gonna have to scratch that itch soon!

Originally posted by Asumijet:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

[qb] For me, it tells me my probability of success (and I believe the past 2 years have demonstrated similar results), when all other things are equal (which of course they are not), is greater in the first 2/3 of the draft than it is on the backend. sorry to disagree, but i don't think that is the case. with 30 rounds, i don't see much of an advantage. i'd be fine picking 15 next year.

Originally posted by Gekko:

Thanks for the mention Greg. How about that Sandoval pick in the 2nd (BEFORE VOTTO)!?!?! I suck!



ey, any word on when the slow drafts and draft champion formats will be ready to roll on the fanball draft software? gonna have to scratch that itch soon! We're planning for all of that right now. Dan is already pushing me to get the draft software out by Oct. 4th. I'm not sure if we'll have it ready that quick, but the goal is to start the 2011 season as soon as possible. I'm working on the plans and projections now and hopefully we'll have a game plan in place by the start of October.



We finished with 24 Slow Drafts last year, I believe. I have a plan to top that figure this year, but we'll see if it makes economical sense or not. Stay tuned.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:



We finished with 24 Slow Drafts last year, I believe. I have a plan to top that figure this year, but we'll see if it makes economical sense or not. Stay tuned. heck, i might need to sign up for everyone you offer (if there is an "auto pick 1 round only" button!!!

So where did the Top 20 teams in the NFBC Online Championship draft from? It's interesting to note that the Top 20 teams drafted from all different areas of the draft. Eleven of the 12 spots are represented, with only No. 9 not being in the Top 20. No. 11, surprisingly, led the way with four in the Top 16, including three teams in the Top 6.



Here's a look at where the Top 20 teams as of today in the NFBC Online Championship (Live & Online) drafted:



No. 1 - 2 teams

No. 2 - 1 team

No. 3 - 3 teams

No. 4 - 1 team

No. 5 - 2 teams

No. 6 - 1 team

No. 7 - 1 team

No. 8 - 2 teams

No. 9 - 0 teams

No. 10 - 1 team

No. 11 - 4 teams

No. 12 - 2 teams



Nos. 1-3 - 6 teams

Nos. 4-6 - 4 teams

Nos. 7-9 - 3 teams

Nos. 10-12 - 7 teams



Interesting, huh?