Howie Kendrick

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Oct 07, 2010 6:31 am

Before last year, fantasy players that were high on Kendrick, held out hope that he could play a full year, free from injury.

They got their wish this year.

And were disappointed.

Kendrick is not a AAAA player, but it looks like he will be remembered as a lot better minor league player than at the Major level.

He turns 28 next year. Certainly not past his prime, but at an age where he should have 'got' Major League pitching by now.

He only missed four games in 2010. He had the fourth most at bats among all 2b. Yet, Kendrick did not finish in the top 10 in home runs, or average, or even runs among second baseman.

Watching him this year, I felt he was swinging at many pitches out of the zone. Instead of taking these pitches for balls, he seemed to enjoy flicking them for foul balls into the stands.

So, I was not surprised to see that Kendrick drew fewer walks per plate appearance than free swinger and former teammate, Vladimir Guerrero.

Kendrick's OBP was .313, putting that in perspective, Clint Barmes OBP was .305

Looking deeper into his stats, Kendrick's problems do not stop at swinging at pitchers pitches.

Kendrick hit 288 ground balls last year. Seventh most in the Big Leagues. A stat you want to lead if speedy or not particularly powerful. A 'Judy' stat, if you will.

Ahead of him in ground balls were Juan Pierre, Derek Jeter, Ichiro, Andrus, Span, and Theriot.

Jeter had an off year and too many ground balls was a big part in that. The others would just as soon hit the ball on the ground as anywhere else.

At the least, Kendrick should be shooting a lot of balls in the gaps, tough to do when 53% of fair balls are killing worms.

For me, Kendrick goes from the 'If he can just stay healthy all year' guy to the 'Can he have that one hit wonder type year' guy.

Hitting balls out of the zone, and most of those on the ground, tell me that Kendrick is just a 12-12 type 2b who won't hurt the average.

Gordon Beckham takes his place at 2b as the 'If he can stay healthy all year' guy.

On the good side,

1. Kendrick has proven now, that he can play a year without injury.

2. He can hit anywhere in the lineup. This year, he hit every spot in the lineup, but cleanup.

3. He won't hurt your team unless taken too high.

Kendrick should not be taken before the 10th round next year.

He has been taken in single digit rounds the past three years.

Each, a disappointment for drafters.

Kendrick will go in the 11-14 range this year.

Note- Each week, I will profile a player and give an opinion as to what round that player will be drafted next year.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Thu Oct 07, 2010 6:36 am

good stuff doughie ! I say make it every monday and friday - just like setting linups !

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Oct 15, 2010 4:05 am

Dan, good analysis on Kendrick and I agree that he underwhelmed us last year even though he surprised us by staying healthy. We finally got a chance to see what he could do over a full season if he stayed healthy and the results were more disappointing than during his non-healthy years. Is he possibly not as good as we all thought?

Heck, when Sports Illustrated writes a big feature story on you, the talent must be there, right? Well, maybe SI was fooled as well. This guy no longer looks like anything special and could be nothing more than a good BA fantasy player for you. He has limited power and speed and a very poor OBP.

I thought last year would be his coming out party. Here's an Age 27 guy you could target: Someone who was turning 27 last year and was in his fifth MLB season. The fact that he set career highs with 616 ABs and 158 games made him a perfect Age 27 breakout prospect. But he actually hit a career-low .279 and his 28 walks in 616 ABs were pitiful. The 10 HRs matched his 2009 total, but that was in only 105 games and 374 ABs.

What gives with Kendrick? Like Dan said, it sure looks like he's become a groundball hitter instead of a line-drive hitter. And it's obvious the Angels didn't try to get him to lift the ball more. During the second half he hit .287, but with only three HRs and 23 RBIs.

Kendrick could still be considered an Age 27 Breakout as he enters his sixth MLB season and won't turn 28 until July. Does he figure it out this year? Does he stay healthy again? It's tough to predict, but I'm with Dan here: Projecting more than .290-12-75-12-65 is pretty tough to do. Those aren't bad numbers, but they depend on Kendrick staying healthy, something he couldn't do in the three previous seasons. Unless he changes his approach at the plate to aggressively hit more fly balls and take more pitches (i.e. get more walks), Kendrick won't be the breakout player we had all hoped for.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri Oct 15, 2010 4:43 am

I fell into the Kendrick man-crush trap primarily because a couple of scouts I trust were extremely high on him.

While I am not sure I want to call this lesson learned and stop trusting credible sources, there are a few red flags you can point to with Kendrick.

His upside has always been batting average. If you projected more than 15-20 HR and 15-20 SB, your sights were set to high. But obviously, he has not even attained those marks. The larger point is he was never expected to fill up the counting stats like Utley or Kinsler or even Pedroia, but he was expected to hit .300 in a bad year with the potential of .350 and a batting crown or two.

The problem is that although he displayed the ability to hit for a .300+ average in the minors and his MLEs translated to the same in The Show, his walk rate and contact rate did not support that batting average level. His walk rate is poor -- mid single digits. And while his contact rate is not bad in the low 80s, it is not near 90 where it needs to be to profile as a perennial .300 hitter that swats fewer than 20 HR, because as we sometime forget when analyzing batting average, home runs are hits too.

I have always found a place for the Placido Polancos of the player pool, and if Kendrick ultimately profiles more like that, he will have value if the rest of your team is constructed accordingly. But I agree with Greg, it is time to pay for what you see, not for what you hope to see.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri Oct 15, 2010 4:48 am

Sorry, meant to include this.

His LD/GB/FB ratio were the exact same last season as they have been all his MLB career. That is, on a relative basis, he is not hitting more or fewer liners or grounders or flies than in the past.

Unfortunately, in the majors, fewer grounders are finding there way through the infield, which quite frankly makes sense and from a nerdy stat geek view point, suggests that may need to be better incorporated into MLEs.

Big league fielders are better and the advanced scouting to position fielders is better than on the farm.

[ October 15, 2010, 10:49 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Oct 15, 2010 9:44 am

'Fast' infields are becoming dinosaurs as well.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Oct 16, 2010 5:00 am

I just took Kendrick in the 11th round of our pay draft. Not sexy by any means. But, after taking Jason Bay in the 9th and having a possible average drain in Grady Sizemore, I felt I could use some B.A.

By the way, Jason Bay is not cool. If he were, he'd be called J-Bay.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Oct 16, 2010 9:12 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

because a couple of scouts I trust were extremely high on him.

that's the problem. don't trust scouts!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Oct 16, 2010 10:25 am

Mark, PM full.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Oct 16, 2010 1:24 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Mark, PM full. A few spots have opened up!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Oct 16, 2010 1:54 pm

Sent!

Head 2 Head · Post by **Head 2 Head** » Sat Oct 16, 2010 2:21 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I just took Kendrick in the 11th round of our pay draft. Not sexy by any means. But, after taking Jason Bay in the 9th and having a possible average drain in Grady Sizemore, I felt I could use some B.A.

LQQKING for rebounds?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Oct 16, 2010 2:41 pm

Yes.

In Bay's case, I may be playing with a flat ball. :rolleyes:

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sat Oct 16, 2010 5:38 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I just took Kendrick in the 11th round of our pay draft. Not sexy by any means. But, after taking Jason Bay in the 9th and having a possible average drain in Grady Sizemore, I felt I could use some B.A.

By the way, Jason Bay is not cool. If he were, he'd be called J-Bay. Dead-on analysis of Kendrick. Speaking of 11th rd picks in our pay draft, I'll nominate Lance Berkman as a future player profile for you to do.