Edwards Kings Main Event 2010 Post-Mortem
Posted: Fri Oct 08, 2010 12:45 pm
When a sports team has a year that stands out above and beyond the rest, they get “named”. For example, “Amazin Mets” comes to mind. Each year I give my team a nickname and this year is “2010 and We Sucked Again”. And each year I do a post-mortem on the reason why. Certain “themes” have risen and must be noted:
1. I am really stupid (I mean in the baseball sense…not all those other areas that my mother-in-law kept lists on). Earlier this season, way earlier, when the team was performing well, a fellow NFBCer asked me my opinion of R.A. Dickey. My review was not favorable and Dickey goes on to post a 2.84 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. This kind of talent assessment is indicative of the brain farts I have had quite frequently between March and October since 2004.
2. My in-season management skills leave about as much to be desired. I wizzed away more FA $ on absolute losers this year than I did on Thin Mints and Tagalongs (the Girl Scouts are able to get bulk rates when they deliver my cookies every year).
3. Each year at the draft table I look around for the dupe. I can never seem to find him/her which means I need to bring a mirror to the table with me.
At the end of the season, I always feel like I did the first time I was dumped by a girl. And, like it was the first time I was in love, each year I come to the same conclusion. Despite the pain, I can’t wait to get back in the saddle again because the damn ride is so fun. Congrats again to Steve who absolutely dominated. I have now had the pleasure of having my head handed to me by him, Childs, Clum, and Jurney just to name a few and each year it sucks because they are such nice guys you cannot hate them. Now, about my team…
From my post on my team after the draft I stated “I expected to take who I decided had value in a round that made sense in order to build a balance team (i.e. not ditch saves, steals). I knew I would not dominate any one category or one position, but that was never my goal. I wanted to be generally in the 80% range for each stat. Nothing earth shattering there and pretty much paint-by-the-numbers for the NFBC set.” Indicative in that plan was to get proven players, players at or entering their prime, on teams that had reasonable playoff expectations, and not overly value pitching which is deeper than any other talent pool.
Most believe OF is also very deep, but I saw the potential for too many part-timers in March, so I was not going to be afraid to get some early, especially if they can be a reasonable power/speed/BA combo. So to start, how about an OF on a team in a weaker division who has a “Hall of Fame” manager and has posted .342, .290, and .294 BA’s over the last three years, who has stolen 69 bases the last two years and hit 26 HR’s last year despite just being 26? Sure, Matt Kemp was my first round pick. The problem was, he turned into a mook (.254, 28 HR, 89 RBI, 82 R, and 19 SB). Those aren’t horrible numbers, but they are not first round especially considering I passed on Longoria, Howard, and Cabrera. Now, part of my defense, your Honors, was that I had my eye on two other players to anchor 1B and 3B, whom I thought would provide 1st round numbers. I could have and probably should have considered Tulowitzki (especially since Shawn was all but his PR flack in Vegas this year
), and he certainly turned in a quality year at a scarce position, though I am not sure anyone was happy with this pick before September. September counts, but you cannot bank on months like that too much.
Anyway, Kemp was the loser I picked as my “winner”with the #7 pick. I should have known that pretty much anything Joe Torre touches turns to manure unless he has a few hundred million to throw around and the Dodgers were no exception. ***Spoiler alert*** Kemp is going to drop substantially on the draft boards in 2011 and he can still get to 30/30 with the right manager, though I do not think we will ever see .290 out of him again.
One pick that worked out was Votto, who I targeted and snagged over Youk and Zimmerman. His age (27), his park (Great American ***Spoiler alert*** His slugging percentage was HIGHER on the road) and his real estate in the batters box (left-handed) all screamed “Pick Me”. Now, when I listen to the voices in my head, usually bad things happen (don’t even ask me about the Lynyrd Skynyrd/Charlie Daniels Band/Atlanta Rhythm Section Concert of 1976), but in this case it worked (.324 BA, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 106 R) and the 16 SB came out of nowhere. He is now a lock to be Top Eight in 2011.
Since the voices were being so friendly, I decided to listen again in the 3rd round. I had almost as many hopes for this guy as I did for Votto. Still in his prime (32), in what still must be considered a hitters park (Wrigley) and now with perhaps the best hitting coach (Rudy Jaramillo), I was thinking Aramis Ramirez could out perform all the other third basemen taken up to that point (ARod, Longoria, Youk, Wright, Zimmerman and Sandoval). Damn voices. In the end, AmRam did outperform some of them, but he certainly did not perform up to a 3rd round pick. Before the first pitch, I though I had a lock on both a great BA and power base. I was half right. I wanted 75+ HR out of my first three hitters and I got 91 for fantasy purposes. Even the 35 SB were about what I expected, but even with Votto’s help, the .2753 BA I got for fantasy purposes out of the three positions (OF1, 1B, and 3B) was well below what I expected. ***Spoiler alert*** Pundits will probably pick up on what AmRam did after the AS Break (15 HR, 51 RBI, and a .276 BA with .313 July and .303 August) and 25 HR in only 465 injury-laden AB is tempting, but don’t buy it. This isn’t the first year he has gotten out of the gate slow and he hasn’t had 250 AB after the AS Break since 2006. Can he break out in 2011? Hey, if Bautista can in 2010, AmRam can, but it is a long-shot.
You can ask Clum. I have been high on Andre Ethier for a long time and early on it looked like I was right when I chose him in the 4th round. However, his collapse in the 2H doomed his value though his overall numbers ended up respectable (.292 BA, 23 HR, 82 RBI and 71 R). I wasn’t looking for respectable here. I needed big. I blame Torre. As a matter of fact, if someone told me Torre was Osama Bin Laden, the monster behind the kidnapping of the Lindbergh Baby, and the chief designer of the Titanic, I would readily believe.
By this point in time of my draft (end of the fourth), eleven teams had chosen fifteen pitchers. As a matter of fact, I did not pick a pitcher until the 7th round. By the end of the 6th round, all teams but two had at least one pitcher. So, how did that help/hurt me? In comparison to my league-mates, by the end of the 6th round, one team had three starting pitchers and finished tied with Quahogs for league lead in pitching points primarily associated with starters (W, ERA, WHIP, K). Between the two top pitching teams, each finished first (twice) or second (twice) in all four categories. The difference is that Quahogs only had one starter. I finished in 6th place for pitching points related to starters being tied for third place Wins (out of second by only four wins, though I used only starters during September) and third in K’s (only eight strike-outs out of second place). Where it dinged me was ERA and WHIP, where I nearly hit my targets, but in this Year of the Pitcher, the numbers were not good enough and I finished mid-pack (13.0 total points between the two categories). I still think pitching is over emphasized, but with my less than stellar third and fourth round picks, I might have to adjust my thinking a bit.
When we last left our hero, we were in the fifth round contemplating two things…a beer and speed. After four rounds, I felt good about power being well over 100+ (right) and BA (wrong), so I thought a good average/speed guy with a little pop would be nice. Even though the Phillies were moving Polanco into the Flyin’ Hawaiian’s familiar #2 spot, I thought injuries and wiser heads would prevail and his numbers would survive at their historical norms. As it turned out, Shane Victorino ended up with 439 out of 587 AB in either the #1 or #2 slot. Win one for me. His 34 SB were back to his 2007/2008 levels, so win two for me. He even set career highs in HR (18) and RBI (69). Damn, I am smart. But runs were way down (84 compared to 102 for both 2008 and 2009) and since he became a full-timer back in 2006, he has never hit lower than .281 and had actually exceeded .290 both in 2008 and 2009. This year he hit .259. Out of my first five picks, three (Victorino, Kemp, and AmRam) all had batting averages WELL below their career norms. Waiting on pitching means the bats you choose have to produce at least to their norms and if possible achieve their upside. Now I finished third in my league in BA, but the collective .2713 for my team as a whole can only be viewed as anemic and I can point right here to three of my first five picks for the cause.
KJ Duck…Duke really tagged my 6th round pick by labeling it as a “value trap”. In looking at my batters PROJECTED results, I really did not need more speed (I was wrong as I finished mid-pack with only 146 swipes) with Kemp and Victorino providing a really nice base (in 2009 only 17 ballplayers stole 30 or more bases, and here I thought I had two already) but low an behold here in the 6th round is a middle-infielder to just jump on my roster laden with cornermen and outfielders. Say hello to the aptly labeled “value-trap” pick of Brian Roberts. It took only four games for this dude to find the DL and I did not see the schmuck again until late July. By the time I got him back in for the last eleven weeks of the season, he stole about a base a week, which is only slightly under the pace I had expected for him for the year (I was looking for a repeat of 2009 with about 30). To my (weak) defense, I was actually going starter here if someone hadn’t dropped. I should have stuck to my guns as Kershaw was still available. Hind sight is 20/20.
By the 7th round I had just smoked the competition with an awesome base of power, speed, and average. Just give me the check right now, Greg! I looked at the board and at my league mates to try to find the dupe again. Still couldn’t find him, so I turned my mind on pitching. I wanted an anchor closer much more than I wanted an anchor starter as I really felt that great pitching was still out there. They were and Quahogs got them, but that is his story. Anyway, closers are very risky. Broxton, Rivera, and Papelbon were gone, so I grabbed Soria. Given he plays for the Royals, the 43 saves, low ERA, low WHIP and 71 K’s were about all I could ask for. Good pick and I think value in this round.
Now I need to grab some starters. Typically, I like to avoid the AL East. Too many big bats for my comfort. However, I really felt good about Tampa this year and as far as home parks go, it is not bad for pitchers. In my original plan, I hoped for Garza or Shields to be here. They both were and I grabbed Garza, then Shields in the 9th. I was really counting my lucky starts by that point. Garza didn’t quite step up to the elite level I thought he would, but he gave me a full season (204.2 IP with 15 Wins), OK if not a little disappointing K’s (150 compared to 189 in 2009), good ERA/WHIP and a SAVE. Shields, however, after a hot start was just abysmal. He is a bit of an enigma to me. Good K’s (187) with great control (3.67 K/BB ratio), but gave up a ton of hits and HR’s. I know the long-ball has been a problem with him, but with his “stuff” I just keep thinking he is about to turn the corner. I didn’t happen this year. If not for Shields, I would have put my top five starters against any teams. Of course, if I had gone with Kershaw, I would not have chosen Shields. There is that hindsight again.
I wanted a catcher in the 10th and I had my eye on one who I thought would easily be a top catcher. If Pinella had actually played Soto more/better, he probably would have been. As it was, he had 17 HR and a .2795 BA. Given that was in only 322 AB mostly out of the 7 and 8 hole, one wonder what might have been. As it was, Soto turned into a middle of the pack 1st catcher for my team.
The next five picks were real mixed bags. Of the five, two ended up very good, one not so good but OK and two absolutely sucked. With Jared Weaver as my 11th round pick, I finally had my ace. Ace’s do not have be had in the first six or seven rounds. Weaver this year was proof. Having made the playoffs in six of the previous eight years, I thought the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim California Pacific Coast North American Continent Western Hemisphere Third from the Sun (or “LAAACPCNACWHTS”) would afford Weaver a good chance at getting 17+ wins (as did fourteen other pitchers did this year), but Weaver only got 13. You cannot predict wins, but his 233 K’s lead the majors and his barely over 3.00 ERA and sterling WHIP were 11th and 6th respectively for pitchers with 185+ IP in 2010.
John Danks was my 15th rounder and with 15 W, sub 3.72 ERA, sub 1.22 WHIP and 162 K’s, there were not many better fourth starters out there. But now for the bad. Since my batters were so AWESOME, I was really planning on and focusing on pitchers these rounds. Unfortunately I bit on the spring training noise that Webb was back and better than ever, or would be just a week or two into the season. The guy still isn’t doing well and has been shut down again after topping out at 85 mph over a few innings of instructional league. Wasted pick. I also grabbed Jason Frasor in the 14th as my second closer. After the draft, Quahogs said he liked this pick. Wish I could have traded him to Steve but after a rough week, the Jays basically dumped him into a set-up role and I was not happy. There was a lot of movement in closers again this year, but so much of it seemed focused on teams like Baltimore that I never felt like blowing my FA money in a big way. Most of those that did were sorry, but though I had FA money, I had no second closer.
The 12th pick was Miquel Tejada, who was going back to Baltimore. I ended up using Tejada for several positions as DL relief and the only thing you can say about him was that he played. I wasn’t looking for a return to 2004 when he was my first round pick and a damn good one, but I did get the low end of what I expected (.269 BA, 71 R, 15 HR, 71 RBI). If I had been able to stick him at MI for the year, I would have been better off as those numbers are not too bad there.
The next five picks didn’t exactly advance my team, but again injuries took there toll. I know that with my 16th round pick, I was consigning myself to an injury prone and aging middle infield. Rafael Furcal had gotten over 600 AB in 2009, so I had hopes that he would be able to repeat and stay injury free and get back to stealing bases. I was half right as Furcal got 22 swipes in only 383 AB. Everything else was projecting out just fine (especially BA), but playing only 97 games and Roberts injuries left me scrambling in the middle.
I drafted John Baker to be my second catcher and his injuries left him a bust. Alex Gordon was a minor gamble in the 20th round that never panned out as minor ended up being where he played most of the year. Josh Willingham was my fourth OFer who made me look good…for half a season. He subsequently swooned then got injured and in the end was not much help.
My sixth pitcher and 19th round pick was a good one. Most people are going to be real down on Derek Lowe and rightfully so through the first five weeks of the season. But look at him after about mid-May. Because of his early season struggles, I sat him down for Weeks Five and Six, but stuck him in there for Week Seven and left him. How many fifth starters during that same time frame had 11 W, a sub 3.500 ERA and a sub 1.300 WHIP. Lowe is not a strike-out pitcher, but during that time he still managed to have a K/IP ratio of just better than 74%. Lowe’s early problem was never his stuff, but his control. Once he got in his groove, he was a very valuable pitcher.
Out of the next ten picks, my draft totally collapsed. I was able to use both David DeJesus and Carlos Guillen pretty well as long as both played, but even they spent much of the year on the DL. Anyway, the collapse and the injuries left me VERY active (for me at least) in the FA pool. I walked away with some FA help (Omar Infante and Chris Johnson especially), but mostly I was left scrambling for a couple of starters, a second catcher, MI and bullpen help. In short, I needed some luck with the DL and didn’t get it. And I did not draft well enough to fill enough of the holes.
But you do not run your team bases solely on specific players. You have to plan on injuries, moron managers, and ineptitude. So looking at my team by group (SP, RL, CM, MI, OF, C, and UT) also showed what caused me to be in the second division again.
I already mentioned Soto coulda, shoulda, woulda been a contender but for Pinella’s senility. After Baker went down, I ended up trying that famous ballplayer Max Rameriz-Josh Bard-Nick Hundley-Jeff Mathis-John Jaso-Adam Moore. I do not know what team that guy plays for, but where ever it is, don’t pick him. As it was, my catchers generated a poor (BA/R/HR/RBI/S) .2318/81/22/72/1 line in 647 AB total between the two slots. YUCK!
On cornermen, Votto was set all year. To replace AmRam, I used Tejada who doesn’t carry enough stick to really help. At the CM slot, I was ok the last eleven weeks after I got Chris Johnson (***Spoiler Altert*** Johnson played well over his head and will not repeat), but before that, I use Tejada the most with Garret Atkins, Eric Hinske, Alex Gordon and Omar Infante for seven of the weeks. Because of Votto, this mixed bag of corner men actually ended up being ok and offering a little to make up for other shortfalls. The average per position was (BA/R/HR/RBI/S) .2839/78/26/90/6 and averaging 548 AB.
On MI, until Roberts got back, I used Christian Guzman (10 weeks), Carlos Guillen (2), Valbuena (1) and Iwamura (1). As a 2B group, I got 2708/60/6/39/14 in 506 AB. For SS, Furcal was in and out, playing not playing, but I still used him the most. Fill-in was mainly Infante, but I also used Valbuena and Tejada once each. As a SS group, I got .2968/67/9/47/15. These numbers are well down over what I wanted, but there were in only 401 AB. The MI slot was a real revolving door. My plan was to use Tejada there and I did mostly. But as I moved him around for other injury fill-ins, I used Blake DeWitt, Carlos Guillen, Jason Donald, Wilson Valdez, Luis Valbuena, and even Infante once. As a MI group, I got .2682/58/13/57/2 in 507 total AB. In short, none of my middle infielder positions hit the stats I needed from them except for BA out of one slot and SB out of two slots. I really dug a hole here.
I really tried to set my OF up to make up for any shortfalls that might come from the catcher and middle infield positions. The triumvirate of Kemp, Ethier, and Victorino I used 74 out of 78 possible weeks between the three (Hinske, Patterson, and Infante made up the other four weeks). Only Ethier carried his weight with BA, but if you look at these as OF1 (.2492/82/28/89/19 in 602 total AB), OF2 (.2912/78/26/85/2 in 546 total AB) and OF3 (.2603/88/20/72/34 in 630 total AB), they were not bad, just not good enough. OF4 was mainly Willingham with Infante (5 weeks) and Fukudome (2 weeks) as his DL replacements. Infante was fine, but was basically empty BA. Still, as far as fourth OFers go, the .2784/75/22/75/11 in 528 total AB held its own and at least wasn’t a real drain on my stats. I used steady and unspectacular David DeJesus mainly as my fifth OF (all or part of 16 weeks) until he got hurt. In those sixteen weeks, he gave me about what I expected (.3086/45/5/33/3). His replacements (Ankiel, Bonifacio, Hinske, Bourgeois, Patterson, Fukudome, McLouth, Andruw, and Heisey) did not get the job done and brought down the whole group (all or part of 15 weeks with .1929/22/2/9/3 in 197 AB).
Utility has not been a good position for me in the past. I never seem to be able to find that last big bat. This year was a little better, but only a little. The position didn’t exactly help, but it didn’t hurt as bad as before. In descending order, I got 501 total AB out of the group of Wilson Betemit, Carlos Guillen (another old MI type), Andruw Jones, Corey Patterson, Ty Wigginton, Miguel Tejada (again), David Murphy, Omar Infante (again), and Kila Ka’aihue with slightly less than ok results (.2774/63/14/72/15). If my other positions had lived up to potential, I would have been ok. But like the rest, this is just ok and won’t win you any leagues.
I’ve written about my pitchers pretty much above except for my 6th, 7th and late in the year 8th starters. I had hoped the gamble on Webb would solve at least one of those positions after April, but he just was never was (and may never be) healthy. As a whole, as far as total starters go, I ended up with 108 wins and 1,287 K’s. Not bad. Like I mentioned above, where I hurt myself with my strategy was in ERA and WHIP. I used my top five starters every start they had save a couple. Even with Shields laying the preverbal floater in the punch bowl, this group got me 82 Wins with 970 K’s, an ERA of 3.8484, and a WHIP of 1.2649. But we all know that the challenge is in the last two or three SP positions. I rolled through a lot of my FA bucks here as I used Cecil, Padilla, Norris, Lannan, Cook, Garcia, McDonald, Rzepczynski, Bush, Moyer, Guthrie, Bailey, Mitre, Bonderman, Walters, Westbrook and Huff all to start at least one game. For those games, I ended up with 4.6762 ERA, 1.3803 WHIP, 26 Wins and 314 K’s in 442.7 IP. In this year of the pitcher, this was not even close to being good enough.
So, with all that, what you see is what you get…a mediocre team. I hope the article is not too long, but I figured the only thing you had to do right now was fantasy football, which only takes 30 minutes a week no matter how many teams you have. I am also sorry I was not able to keep posting blogs like this during the year. But as some of you know, the company I work for is going through what is in essence a merger. Doing my regular job plus being on the integration team and family considerations hasn’t left me too much time. In any regard, pending of course the outcome of the merger and my job status, I am planning on being somewhere with the NFBC next year. Despite the groaning and moaning about my team, I just love it. After all, what fun would it be if you didn’t have Edwards Kings to anchor the middle of the pack?
[ October 08, 2010, 07:14 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
1. I am really stupid (I mean in the baseball sense…not all those other areas that my mother-in-law kept lists on). Earlier this season, way earlier, when the team was performing well, a fellow NFBCer asked me my opinion of R.A. Dickey. My review was not favorable and Dickey goes on to post a 2.84 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. This kind of talent assessment is indicative of the brain farts I have had quite frequently between March and October since 2004.
2. My in-season management skills leave about as much to be desired. I wizzed away more FA $ on absolute losers this year than I did on Thin Mints and Tagalongs (the Girl Scouts are able to get bulk rates when they deliver my cookies every year).
3. Each year at the draft table I look around for the dupe. I can never seem to find him/her which means I need to bring a mirror to the table with me.
At the end of the season, I always feel like I did the first time I was dumped by a girl. And, like it was the first time I was in love, each year I come to the same conclusion. Despite the pain, I can’t wait to get back in the saddle again because the damn ride is so fun. Congrats again to Steve who absolutely dominated. I have now had the pleasure of having my head handed to me by him, Childs, Clum, and Jurney just to name a few and each year it sucks because they are such nice guys you cannot hate them. Now, about my team…
From my post on my team after the draft I stated “I expected to take who I decided had value in a round that made sense in order to build a balance team (i.e. not ditch saves, steals). I knew I would not dominate any one category or one position, but that was never my goal. I wanted to be generally in the 80% range for each stat. Nothing earth shattering there and pretty much paint-by-the-numbers for the NFBC set.” Indicative in that plan was to get proven players, players at or entering their prime, on teams that had reasonable playoff expectations, and not overly value pitching which is deeper than any other talent pool.
Most believe OF is also very deep, but I saw the potential for too many part-timers in March, so I was not going to be afraid to get some early, especially if they can be a reasonable power/speed/BA combo. So to start, how about an OF on a team in a weaker division who has a “Hall of Fame” manager and has posted .342, .290, and .294 BA’s over the last three years, who has stolen 69 bases the last two years and hit 26 HR’s last year despite just being 26? Sure, Matt Kemp was my first round pick. The problem was, he turned into a mook (.254, 28 HR, 89 RBI, 82 R, and 19 SB). Those aren’t horrible numbers, but they are not first round especially considering I passed on Longoria, Howard, and Cabrera. Now, part of my defense, your Honors, was that I had my eye on two other players to anchor 1B and 3B, whom I thought would provide 1st round numbers. I could have and probably should have considered Tulowitzki (especially since Shawn was all but his PR flack in Vegas this year
), and he certainly turned in a quality year at a scarce position, though I am not sure anyone was happy with this pick before September. September counts, but you cannot bank on months like that too much.Anyway, Kemp was the loser I picked as my “winner”with the #7 pick. I should have known that pretty much anything Joe Torre touches turns to manure unless he has a few hundred million to throw around and the Dodgers were no exception. ***Spoiler alert*** Kemp is going to drop substantially on the draft boards in 2011 and he can still get to 30/30 with the right manager, though I do not think we will ever see .290 out of him again.
One pick that worked out was Votto, who I targeted and snagged over Youk and Zimmerman. His age (27), his park (Great American ***Spoiler alert*** His slugging percentage was HIGHER on the road) and his real estate in the batters box (left-handed) all screamed “Pick Me”. Now, when I listen to the voices in my head, usually bad things happen (don’t even ask me about the Lynyrd Skynyrd/Charlie Daniels Band/Atlanta Rhythm Section Concert of 1976), but in this case it worked (.324 BA, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 106 R) and the 16 SB came out of nowhere. He is now a lock to be Top Eight in 2011.
Since the voices were being so friendly, I decided to listen again in the 3rd round. I had almost as many hopes for this guy as I did for Votto. Still in his prime (32), in what still must be considered a hitters park (Wrigley) and now with perhaps the best hitting coach (Rudy Jaramillo), I was thinking Aramis Ramirez could out perform all the other third basemen taken up to that point (ARod, Longoria, Youk, Wright, Zimmerman and Sandoval). Damn voices. In the end, AmRam did outperform some of them, but he certainly did not perform up to a 3rd round pick. Before the first pitch, I though I had a lock on both a great BA and power base. I was half right. I wanted 75+ HR out of my first three hitters and I got 91 for fantasy purposes. Even the 35 SB were about what I expected, but even with Votto’s help, the .2753 BA I got for fantasy purposes out of the three positions (OF1, 1B, and 3B) was well below what I expected. ***Spoiler alert*** Pundits will probably pick up on what AmRam did after the AS Break (15 HR, 51 RBI, and a .276 BA with .313 July and .303 August) and 25 HR in only 465 injury-laden AB is tempting, but don’t buy it. This isn’t the first year he has gotten out of the gate slow and he hasn’t had 250 AB after the AS Break since 2006. Can he break out in 2011? Hey, if Bautista can in 2010, AmRam can, but it is a long-shot.
You can ask Clum. I have been high on Andre Ethier for a long time and early on it looked like I was right when I chose him in the 4th round. However, his collapse in the 2H doomed his value though his overall numbers ended up respectable (.292 BA, 23 HR, 82 RBI and 71 R). I wasn’t looking for respectable here. I needed big. I blame Torre. As a matter of fact, if someone told me Torre was Osama Bin Laden, the monster behind the kidnapping of the Lindbergh Baby, and the chief designer of the Titanic, I would readily believe.
By this point in time of my draft (end of the fourth), eleven teams had chosen fifteen pitchers. As a matter of fact, I did not pick a pitcher until the 7th round. By the end of the 6th round, all teams but two had at least one pitcher. So, how did that help/hurt me? In comparison to my league-mates, by the end of the 6th round, one team had three starting pitchers and finished tied with Quahogs for league lead in pitching points primarily associated with starters (W, ERA, WHIP, K). Between the two top pitching teams, each finished first (twice) or second (twice) in all four categories. The difference is that Quahogs only had one starter. I finished in 6th place for pitching points related to starters being tied for third place Wins (out of second by only four wins, though I used only starters during September) and third in K’s (only eight strike-outs out of second place). Where it dinged me was ERA and WHIP, where I nearly hit my targets, but in this Year of the Pitcher, the numbers were not good enough and I finished mid-pack (13.0 total points between the two categories). I still think pitching is over emphasized, but with my less than stellar third and fourth round picks, I might have to adjust my thinking a bit.
When we last left our hero, we were in the fifth round contemplating two things…a beer and speed. After four rounds, I felt good about power being well over 100+ (right) and BA (wrong), so I thought a good average/speed guy with a little pop would be nice. Even though the Phillies were moving Polanco into the Flyin’ Hawaiian’s familiar #2 spot, I thought injuries and wiser heads would prevail and his numbers would survive at their historical norms. As it turned out, Shane Victorino ended up with 439 out of 587 AB in either the #1 or #2 slot. Win one for me. His 34 SB were back to his 2007/2008 levels, so win two for me. He even set career highs in HR (18) and RBI (69). Damn, I am smart. But runs were way down (84 compared to 102 for both 2008 and 2009) and since he became a full-timer back in 2006, he has never hit lower than .281 and had actually exceeded .290 both in 2008 and 2009. This year he hit .259. Out of my first five picks, three (Victorino, Kemp, and AmRam) all had batting averages WELL below their career norms. Waiting on pitching means the bats you choose have to produce at least to their norms and if possible achieve their upside. Now I finished third in my league in BA, but the collective .2713 for my team as a whole can only be viewed as anemic and I can point right here to three of my first five picks for the cause.
KJ Duck…Duke really tagged my 6th round pick by labeling it as a “value trap”. In looking at my batters PROJECTED results, I really did not need more speed (I was wrong as I finished mid-pack with only 146 swipes) with Kemp and Victorino providing a really nice base (in 2009 only 17 ballplayers stole 30 or more bases, and here I thought I had two already) but low an behold here in the 6th round is a middle-infielder to just jump on my roster laden with cornermen and outfielders. Say hello to the aptly labeled “value-trap” pick of Brian Roberts. It took only four games for this dude to find the DL and I did not see the schmuck again until late July. By the time I got him back in for the last eleven weeks of the season, he stole about a base a week, which is only slightly under the pace I had expected for him for the year (I was looking for a repeat of 2009 with about 30). To my (weak) defense, I was actually going starter here if someone hadn’t dropped. I should have stuck to my guns as Kershaw was still available. Hind sight is 20/20.
By the 7th round I had just smoked the competition with an awesome base of power, speed, and average. Just give me the check right now, Greg! I looked at the board and at my league mates to try to find the dupe again. Still couldn’t find him, so I turned my mind on pitching. I wanted an anchor closer much more than I wanted an anchor starter as I really felt that great pitching was still out there. They were and Quahogs got them, but that is his story. Anyway, closers are very risky. Broxton, Rivera, and Papelbon were gone, so I grabbed Soria. Given he plays for the Royals, the 43 saves, low ERA, low WHIP and 71 K’s were about all I could ask for. Good pick and I think value in this round.
Now I need to grab some starters. Typically, I like to avoid the AL East. Too many big bats for my comfort. However, I really felt good about Tampa this year and as far as home parks go, it is not bad for pitchers. In my original plan, I hoped for Garza or Shields to be here. They both were and I grabbed Garza, then Shields in the 9th. I was really counting my lucky starts by that point. Garza didn’t quite step up to the elite level I thought he would, but he gave me a full season (204.2 IP with 15 Wins), OK if not a little disappointing K’s (150 compared to 189 in 2009), good ERA/WHIP and a SAVE. Shields, however, after a hot start was just abysmal. He is a bit of an enigma to me. Good K’s (187) with great control (3.67 K/BB ratio), but gave up a ton of hits and HR’s. I know the long-ball has been a problem with him, but with his “stuff” I just keep thinking he is about to turn the corner. I didn’t happen this year. If not for Shields, I would have put my top five starters against any teams. Of course, if I had gone with Kershaw, I would not have chosen Shields. There is that hindsight again.
I wanted a catcher in the 10th and I had my eye on one who I thought would easily be a top catcher. If Pinella had actually played Soto more/better, he probably would have been. As it was, he had 17 HR and a .2795 BA. Given that was in only 322 AB mostly out of the 7 and 8 hole, one wonder what might have been. As it was, Soto turned into a middle of the pack 1st catcher for my team.
The next five picks were real mixed bags. Of the five, two ended up very good, one not so good but OK and two absolutely sucked. With Jared Weaver as my 11th round pick, I finally had my ace. Ace’s do not have be had in the first six or seven rounds. Weaver this year was proof. Having made the playoffs in six of the previous eight years, I thought the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim California Pacific Coast North American Continent Western Hemisphere Third from the Sun (or “LAAACPCNACWHTS”) would afford Weaver a good chance at getting 17+ wins (as did fourteen other pitchers did this year), but Weaver only got 13. You cannot predict wins, but his 233 K’s lead the majors and his barely over 3.00 ERA and sterling WHIP were 11th and 6th respectively for pitchers with 185+ IP in 2010.
John Danks was my 15th rounder and with 15 W, sub 3.72 ERA, sub 1.22 WHIP and 162 K’s, there were not many better fourth starters out there. But now for the bad. Since my batters were so AWESOME, I was really planning on and focusing on pitchers these rounds. Unfortunately I bit on the spring training noise that Webb was back and better than ever, or would be just a week or two into the season. The guy still isn’t doing well and has been shut down again after topping out at 85 mph over a few innings of instructional league. Wasted pick. I also grabbed Jason Frasor in the 14th as my second closer. After the draft, Quahogs said he liked this pick. Wish I could have traded him to Steve but after a rough week, the Jays basically dumped him into a set-up role and I was not happy. There was a lot of movement in closers again this year, but so much of it seemed focused on teams like Baltimore that I never felt like blowing my FA money in a big way. Most of those that did were sorry, but though I had FA money, I had no second closer.
The 12th pick was Miquel Tejada, who was going back to Baltimore. I ended up using Tejada for several positions as DL relief and the only thing you can say about him was that he played. I wasn’t looking for a return to 2004 when he was my first round pick and a damn good one, but I did get the low end of what I expected (.269 BA, 71 R, 15 HR, 71 RBI). If I had been able to stick him at MI for the year, I would have been better off as those numbers are not too bad there.
The next five picks didn’t exactly advance my team, but again injuries took there toll. I know that with my 16th round pick, I was consigning myself to an injury prone and aging middle infield. Rafael Furcal had gotten over 600 AB in 2009, so I had hopes that he would be able to repeat and stay injury free and get back to stealing bases. I was half right as Furcal got 22 swipes in only 383 AB. Everything else was projecting out just fine (especially BA), but playing only 97 games and Roberts injuries left me scrambling in the middle.
I drafted John Baker to be my second catcher and his injuries left him a bust. Alex Gordon was a minor gamble in the 20th round that never panned out as minor ended up being where he played most of the year. Josh Willingham was my fourth OFer who made me look good…for half a season. He subsequently swooned then got injured and in the end was not much help.
My sixth pitcher and 19th round pick was a good one. Most people are going to be real down on Derek Lowe and rightfully so through the first five weeks of the season. But look at him after about mid-May. Because of his early season struggles, I sat him down for Weeks Five and Six, but stuck him in there for Week Seven and left him. How many fifth starters during that same time frame had 11 W, a sub 3.500 ERA and a sub 1.300 WHIP. Lowe is not a strike-out pitcher, but during that time he still managed to have a K/IP ratio of just better than 74%. Lowe’s early problem was never his stuff, but his control. Once he got in his groove, he was a very valuable pitcher.
Out of the next ten picks, my draft totally collapsed. I was able to use both David DeJesus and Carlos Guillen pretty well as long as both played, but even they spent much of the year on the DL. Anyway, the collapse and the injuries left me VERY active (for me at least) in the FA pool. I walked away with some FA help (Omar Infante and Chris Johnson especially), but mostly I was left scrambling for a couple of starters, a second catcher, MI and bullpen help. In short, I needed some luck with the DL and didn’t get it. And I did not draft well enough to fill enough of the holes.
But you do not run your team bases solely on specific players. You have to plan on injuries, moron managers, and ineptitude. So looking at my team by group (SP, RL, CM, MI, OF, C, and UT) also showed what caused me to be in the second division again.
I already mentioned Soto coulda, shoulda, woulda been a contender but for Pinella’s senility. After Baker went down, I ended up trying that famous ballplayer Max Rameriz-Josh Bard-Nick Hundley-Jeff Mathis-John Jaso-Adam Moore. I do not know what team that guy plays for, but where ever it is, don’t pick him. As it was, my catchers generated a poor (BA/R/HR/RBI/S) .2318/81/22/72/1 line in 647 AB total between the two slots. YUCK!
On cornermen, Votto was set all year. To replace AmRam, I used Tejada who doesn’t carry enough stick to really help. At the CM slot, I was ok the last eleven weeks after I got Chris Johnson (***Spoiler Altert*** Johnson played well over his head and will not repeat), but before that, I use Tejada the most with Garret Atkins, Eric Hinske, Alex Gordon and Omar Infante for seven of the weeks. Because of Votto, this mixed bag of corner men actually ended up being ok and offering a little to make up for other shortfalls. The average per position was (BA/R/HR/RBI/S) .2839/78/26/90/6 and averaging 548 AB.
On MI, until Roberts got back, I used Christian Guzman (10 weeks), Carlos Guillen (2), Valbuena (1) and Iwamura (1). As a 2B group, I got 2708/60/6/39/14 in 506 AB. For SS, Furcal was in and out, playing not playing, but I still used him the most. Fill-in was mainly Infante, but I also used Valbuena and Tejada once each. As a SS group, I got .2968/67/9/47/15. These numbers are well down over what I wanted, but there were in only 401 AB. The MI slot was a real revolving door. My plan was to use Tejada there and I did mostly. But as I moved him around for other injury fill-ins, I used Blake DeWitt, Carlos Guillen, Jason Donald, Wilson Valdez, Luis Valbuena, and even Infante once. As a MI group, I got .2682/58/13/57/2 in 507 total AB. In short, none of my middle infielder positions hit the stats I needed from them except for BA out of one slot and SB out of two slots. I really dug a hole here.
I really tried to set my OF up to make up for any shortfalls that might come from the catcher and middle infield positions. The triumvirate of Kemp, Ethier, and Victorino I used 74 out of 78 possible weeks between the three (Hinske, Patterson, and Infante made up the other four weeks). Only Ethier carried his weight with BA, but if you look at these as OF1 (.2492/82/28/89/19 in 602 total AB), OF2 (.2912/78/26/85/2 in 546 total AB) and OF3 (.2603/88/20/72/34 in 630 total AB), they were not bad, just not good enough. OF4 was mainly Willingham with Infante (5 weeks) and Fukudome (2 weeks) as his DL replacements. Infante was fine, but was basically empty BA. Still, as far as fourth OFers go, the .2784/75/22/75/11 in 528 total AB held its own and at least wasn’t a real drain on my stats. I used steady and unspectacular David DeJesus mainly as my fifth OF (all or part of 16 weeks) until he got hurt. In those sixteen weeks, he gave me about what I expected (.3086/45/5/33/3). His replacements (Ankiel, Bonifacio, Hinske, Bourgeois, Patterson, Fukudome, McLouth, Andruw, and Heisey) did not get the job done and brought down the whole group (all or part of 15 weeks with .1929/22/2/9/3 in 197 AB).
Utility has not been a good position for me in the past. I never seem to be able to find that last big bat. This year was a little better, but only a little. The position didn’t exactly help, but it didn’t hurt as bad as before. In descending order, I got 501 total AB out of the group of Wilson Betemit, Carlos Guillen (another old MI type), Andruw Jones, Corey Patterson, Ty Wigginton, Miguel Tejada (again), David Murphy, Omar Infante (again), and Kila Ka’aihue with slightly less than ok results (.2774/63/14/72/15). If my other positions had lived up to potential, I would have been ok. But like the rest, this is just ok and won’t win you any leagues.
I’ve written about my pitchers pretty much above except for my 6th, 7th and late in the year 8th starters. I had hoped the gamble on Webb would solve at least one of those positions after April, but he just was never was (and may never be) healthy. As a whole, as far as total starters go, I ended up with 108 wins and 1,287 K’s. Not bad. Like I mentioned above, where I hurt myself with my strategy was in ERA and WHIP. I used my top five starters every start they had save a couple. Even with Shields laying the preverbal floater in the punch bowl, this group got me 82 Wins with 970 K’s, an ERA of 3.8484, and a WHIP of 1.2649. But we all know that the challenge is in the last two or three SP positions. I rolled through a lot of my FA bucks here as I used Cecil, Padilla, Norris, Lannan, Cook, Garcia, McDonald, Rzepczynski, Bush, Moyer, Guthrie, Bailey, Mitre, Bonderman, Walters, Westbrook and Huff all to start at least one game. For those games, I ended up with 4.6762 ERA, 1.3803 WHIP, 26 Wins and 314 K’s in 442.7 IP. In this year of the pitcher, this was not even close to being good enough.
So, with all that, what you see is what you get…a mediocre team. I hope the article is not too long, but I figured the only thing you had to do right now was fantasy football, which only takes 30 minutes a week no matter how many teams you have. I am also sorry I was not able to keep posting blogs like this during the year. But as some of you know, the company I work for is going through what is in essence a merger. Doing my regular job plus being on the integration team and family considerations hasn’t left me too much time. In any regard, pending of course the outcome of the merger and my job status, I am planning on being somewhere with the NFBC next year. Despite the groaning and moaning about my team, I just love it. After all, what fun would it be if you didn’t have Edwards Kings to anchor the middle of the pack?
[ October 08, 2010, 07:14 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
