Mike Stanton

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Oct 18, 2010 10:03 am

When I like a player going into a new season, I hope for one of two things to happen in the way of hype.

I either hope for very little hype, and have my boy fly under the radar. Or, I hope for the hype Machine to make the player a Willie Mays before the season begins.

I think the latter will happen with Mike Stanton.

There are already strong signals coming from Shandlerville that Stanton will get Joba-esque treatment in the Forecaster this year.

We already know how Bill James over-projects rookies, so his ranking of Stanton should be off the charts too.

Jason Heyward was supposed to have the wow factor for fantasy enthusiasts, but Stanton stole his thunder.

Stanton hit four more homers than Heyward in 160 less at bats. Combining his minor and major league totals for 2010, he hit 43 home runs.

Stanton suffers from the same drawback that afflicts most power hitters, however. The strike out. Stanton struck out 176 times in 2010. 123 of those came at the major league level. Or, more than one strike out every three at bats.

He only played 100 games at the big league level, but developed unusual splits in that time frame. He hit only .182 in home games and only .218 vs. left handers.

He is a great athlete. He is 6' 5", 235 and can run. But, he is not a great base runner and can only be counted on for a few swipes.

Stanton is only 21. At times during the year, he looked like a monster. Other times, he looked lost. I look for the same thing at age 22.

In 2011, he'll win a player of the week award. By the same token, my guess is that he'll also be sat down for a few games while he and his batting coach reflect on major league pitching and his approach.

He will be streaky enough to carry a team for a week or two and bad enough to make you wish he were some other team's problem.

Some fantasy'ers follow Shandler like lemmings. With Joba, those lemmings went over a cliff.

I remember shaking my head at some of the rounds I saw Joba taken in when the Forecaster had him #1. Shandlerites will be taking Stanton too early to reap the benefits. The home runs will be a big draw, but if he doesn't figure out how to make more contact, he could become Mark Reynolds with less positionality.

I like Stanton. I think he'll be a big star, but I don't think it'll be 2011. .245/70/85/30/6. No matter if I draft Stanton or not in 2011, I'll be rooting for him. I have a bet with a friend that he'll hit more home runs in 2011 than Jose Bautista. Bet on the power, hope for the best in the other categories.

Where Stanton is taken in 2011 will be interesting. He went in the fifth round of our pay draft. Honestly, I think he'll go a little lower in other slo-drafts until the Forecaster comes out. Then, he'll get bumped as high as the fourth round, possibly third.

In March, common sense returns and he is taken in the 5-7 round range.

[ October 18, 2010, 06:21 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Mon Oct 18, 2010 1:24 pm

Every level Stanton has played it takes him half a season just to get up to speed.Last year he had a hard time when he went to double a.This year he destroyed double a.The guy is a beast.As an aside he hits the hardest grounders I have ever seen.Reminds me a little of Frank Thomas just in the way the ball reacts when he squares it up.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Mon Oct 18, 2010 3:43 pm

I really like Mike Stanton and believe he is going to be huge, in 2 - 3 years. If I had to put my money on a second year player next year it would be Pedro Alvarez 3B PIT. Pedro will fly under the radar next year in most drafts, but the fact he will most likely hit 3rd or cleanup in that band box of a park is very appealing. OF is a deep position and in a 15 team league, 3B can get thin fast. Pedro was huge coming down the stretch and I honestly think 35 hr and 105 rbi's is within reach for him in 2011.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Mon Oct 18, 2010 4:25 pm

Reminds me of Kyle Blanks.

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Mon Oct 18, 2010 11:46 pm

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

Reminds me of Kyle Blanks. Perhaps a new hobby is in order.Actually when I made my post I expected a couple of comments like that.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Tue Oct 19, 2010 12:33 am

Originally posted by DiamondKing:

quote:Originally posted by Glenneration X:

Reminds me of Kyle Blanks. Perhaps a new hobby is in order.Actually when I made my post I expected a couple of comments like that. [/QUOTE]I have been looking into trying something different. Perhaps fantasy chess. Know of any good contests, what the entry fees are, and if they serve good food at the breaks?

Glenn

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:23 am

Originally posted by DiamondKing:

Every level Stanton has played it takes him half a season just to get up to speed.Last year he had a hard time when he went to double a.This year he destroyed double a.The guy is a beast.As an aside he hits the hardest grounders I have ever seen.Reminds me a little of Frank Thomas just in the way the ball reacts when he squares it up. I think we all agree that physically this guy has a chance to be a beast at the plate. At 6'5", 235, he should be an outside linebacker in the NFL. Instead, he's going to be an All-Star power-hitter in the major leagues. And the way injuries are so prevalent in football, he may have made the right choice.

He has a lot of interesting splits to analyze, but Dave's point above is worth looking at. He started this season at Double-A and was a man among boys, hitting .313 with 21 homers and 52 RBIs. He also walked 44 times and struck out only 53 times. He definitely was ready for a jump up, but should he have progressed all the way to the majors?

The Marlins felt so and stuck with him even though he hit .231-5-20 during his first 28 games. He then hit .271-17-39 in 72 games after the All-Star break, including a .316-8-19 stretch during his last 27 games with a .380 OBP. There's no question that's a good sign for the immediate future as Stanton seemed to get more comfortable and have more success as he got more playing time in the majors.

Two interesting splits that are kind of hard to figure out:

His home/road split was goofy:

.182-7-24 at home

.320-15-35 on the road

Same with his hitting against LHPs/RHPs:

.218-3-14 vs. LHPs

.272-19-45 vs. RHPs

I can't explain those last two. You'd think he would have more success at home and against LHPs and maybe those will change over a full season next year.

Man, I see more good than bad out of these incredible rookie numbers. I know I didn't see it coming this soon. I want to look up his FAAB bids in early June of the NFBC and I'll post those soon. Kudos to those owners who either drafted him and kept him on their reserve roster or got him via an aggressive FAAB bid. He was a winner over those last 100 games.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:24 am

Stanton was drafted in 16 of 26 NFBC Main Event leagues that we tracked with an ADP of 417. He was drafted at a high of 281.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:31 am

Stanton was picked up in Week 11 by 17 Classic teams, which means that about seven teams cut him before his early June callup. Here were those bids:

Stanton Mike Las Vegas March 26 9 am Auction League 552.00

Stanton Mike Classic New York Weekend 2 - League 6 340.00

Stanton Mike Classic Las Vegas Weekend 2 - League 8 466.00

Stanton Mike Classic Las Vegas Weekend 2 - League 1 670.00

Stanton Mike Classic Weekend 2 - Online League 1 386.00

Stanton Mike Chicago March 26 4 pm Auction League 302.00

Stanton Mike Classic Weekend 2 - Online League 3 637.00

Stanton Mike March 27 Super League 620.00

Stanton Mike March 28 Super League 418.00

Stanton Mike New York 1300 Auction League 442.00

Stanton Mike Classic Chicago Weekend 2 - League 2 681.00

Stanton Mike Classic New York Weekend 2 - League 4 423.00

Stanton Mike Classic Las Vegas Weekend 1 - League 1 368.00

Stanton Mike Classic New York Weekend 2 - League 1 401.00

Stanton Mike Classic New York Weekend 2 - League 5 550.00

Stanton Mike Classic Weekend 2 - Online League 2 223.00

Stanton Mike Classic Las Vegas Weekend 2 - League 4 426.00

Here were the Satellite league pickups for him:

Stanton Mike Satellite 250 3/4/10 #1 500.00

Stanton Mike Rookie Invitational 406.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 2/24/10 #2 606.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 250 3/31/10 #7 701.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 3/10/10 #14 360.00

Stanton Mike $125 Slow Draft With FAAB League 2 539.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 03/30/2010 #23 452.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 250 3/24/10 #6 362.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 2/25/10 #3 484.00

Stanton Mike Shawn Childs League 422.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 3/31/10 #17 475.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 250 03/30/2010 #10 453.00

Stanton Mike $125 Slow Draft With FAAB League 1 801.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 3/17/10 #15 405.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 250 04/03/2010 #13 647.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 2/17/10 #1 421.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 250 03/31/2010 #12 600.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 250 3/10/10 #2 428.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 3/17/10 #3 502.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 03/31/2010 #12 175.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 3/23/10 #16 249.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 3/10/10 #1 485.00

Stanton Mike $125 Slow Draft With FAAB League 4 256.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 3/11/10 #11 558.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 3/24/10 #4 288.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 3/30/10 #5 938.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 04/01/2010 #11 133.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 250 04/01/2010 #14 672.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 03/24/2010 #21 626.00

Stanton Mike $125 Slow Draft With FAAB League 3 478.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 03/23/2010 #9 342.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 500 3/11/10 #1 346.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 1000 03/31/2010 #2 660.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 500 04/03/10 #4 510.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 500 3/23/10 #2 412.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 03/31/2010 #10 500.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 1000 3/24/10 #1 346.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 3/31/10 #9 745.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 125 Top 3 3/31/10 #8 431.00

Stanton Mike Sack/Luny League 388.00

Stanton Mike Satellite 250 4/3/10 #9 449.00

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Oct 19, 2010 6:55 am

I'm not sure about the Kyle Blanks comp, but he sort of reminds me of Brandon Wood in that his raw talent helped him conquer the Minors despite striking out a ton. As we know, Wood has yet to be able to have that carry over to the Majors.

At least so far, Taylor looks like he will hit for enough power to allow us to overlook striking out a bunch.

Now, if he ever cuts down on the strikeouts -- YAHTZEE!!!!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Oct 19, 2010 7:24 am

I did a write-up on whether Stanton could hit for average when he first came up:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_ ... r-average/

I gave him a 31% K rate, while he actually went on to K 34% of the time, which accounts for some of the difference between his actual BA and my projected one. It is important to note, though, that Stanton K'ed a lot more in his first two months than his last two.

[ October 19, 2010, 01:25 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Tue Oct 19, 2010 10:20 am

I think the Home/road split may have an answer.He came up with a huge fanfare.I just think he was a bit more relaxed on the road.These guys are people.That is why I have always said you can not just use numbers.I know good players that have had down years that also had a very ill child at home/marriage trouble/unreported injury.In the case of Stanton I think he had a pretty good rookie season.But,may have been pressing at home.As I said before at every level he has played he did not do well his first try.Second try he figured it out.Just, do not let Hanley Ramirez be his mentor and all should be well.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Tue Oct 19, 2010 1:52 pm

I dunno, reminds me a little of Kyle Blanks.

Glenn