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I haven't done one of these in a long time.

Let's see if I've lost my touch...





392 at bats hitting out of the three hole in the lineup... 35 extra base hits and a .297 average... Sounds like good production, right?

Wrong.

Despite those nice stats, Nick Markakis had only 30 rbi from the three hole.

Playing in 160 games, Markakis finished the '10 season with just 60 rbi... And 60 extra base hits.

Let's not fully blame Markakis though. He hit .317 with runners on base, and an even higher .338 with runners in scoring position. However, he did not come up with runners in scoring position as often as some other hitters, and when he did, he didn't hit for much power.



Remember when speed equaled average?

Last year only five players stealing at least 20 bases also hit for a .300 average.

In the meantime, 16 players hit 20 or more home runs while hitting .300

Only three had at least 20 sb's, 20 homers, and hit .300

Carlos Gonzalez- 26/34/.336

Hanley Ramirez- 32/21/.300

Shin Choo Choo- 22/22/.300

Only Gonzalez had triple digits in runs/rbi of these three players.



It's a foregone conclusion (Do we ever see the word 'foregone' not followed by 'conclusion'?) that rbi are closely tied with home runs.

Here is something that makes it a foregoner conclusion...

Joe Mauer had 75 rbi

Yadier Molina had 62 rbi

Out of the top 122 rbi producers in baseball last year, Mauer and Molina were the only two hitters without the benefit of double digit home runs.



Can somebody please tell me how ARod could be second in the Majors with 125 rbi, have 30 home runs, have Robinson Cano hitting behind him, yet score only 74 runs?



Only nine players in baseball had 100/100 last year (remember this when coming up with projections next year, ok? )

On that list of nine are Ryan Braun and Mark Teixeira...Nice off years!



Elvis Andrus had a grand total of one rbi with no runners in scoring position. He had only 18 extra base hits. He has taken Judy to the prom, stole her dress, and has become Judy since.



How bad was the Cubs running game?



Starlin Castro and Kos Fukudome led the team with 17 stolen bases between them... They were caught stealing 16 times.



A lot of players stole bases this year. 98 players had at least double digit thefts.

Stolen bases used to equal runs scored. Not last year. Only one player with more than 30 stolen bases also scored 100 runs, Carl Crawford.



John Buck, Kevin Youkilis, and Victor Martinez hit over .400 vs. lefties.

Josh Hamilton hit .401 vs righties.



Ichiro and Matt Kemp were the only two players to play 162 games.



Rickey Weeks was the only leadoff hitter with 20 home runs and more than 60 rbi.



Of leadoff guys with at least 325 at bats. Marco Scutaro was the only one without speed. The others all had double digit steals. Scutaro had four.



A lot of folks don't think that Wins is a fair category for roto play. Saying that luck, bullpens, team wins, managerial decisions, etc all come into play in the category.

Here is a simple solution. Draft pitchers who stay healthy and have an E.R.A. under four.

EVERY pitcher in baseball who threw a full season and had an E.R.A. under four last year had at least nine wins.



Rodrigo Lopez threw 200 innings last year...And had seven wins, his E.R.A. was 5.00



Tyler Clippard threw 91 innings and had 11 wins.



When is 13 wins not worth 13 wins?

Mark Buehrle had those 13 wins, but 210 innings of 4.28/1.40 and only 99 strike outs does not seem like a good trade off.



Carlos Marmol had 138 K's last year.

More than a lot of starters, including Johnny Cueto, Clay Buchholz, Jaime Garcia, and Carl Pavano.

I thought there was a misprint when I saw M.Kemp play 162games when reviewing stats. I had him in a league but wasn't married to following him that closely. Looking back I thought his playing time was curtailed quite often by Torre. He must have pinch hit quite a few times to get that 162.

I fell into it by accident too.

I was looking to see how many times he hit in different places in the lineup and was surprised.



I'm too lazy to go to a site, but if memory serves, he pinch hit six times. I remember that he hit in the nine hole five times, probably pinch hitting and being double switched, I remember that because of the five times he hit there, he struck out four times.

Heck, a pitcher could have done that!

Since we are talking about the changing landscape of stats, here are a few to keep in mind:



The number of home runs (per game) hit last year was the lowest since 1993.



The number of stolen bases (per game) was the highest since 2001.



The average average (?) was the lowest since 1992.



RBIs (again, per game) were the lowest since 1992.



Runs per game....you guessed it, the lowest since 1992.



So, plenty of Judys had good years in 2010.



Plenty of power hitters found themselves without the necessary medication to sustain previous levels, and returned to early 1990's levels.



On the pitching side:



The number of strike outs per game was the highest it has EVER been.



League-wide WHIP was the lowest since....1992.



League-wide ERA was the lowest since.....1992.



Conclusions:



1. Somebody discovered something in 1992 and plenty of ball players bought some of it.

2. Players ran out of it last year.

3. Those categories that Q and CC have been telling us to fill on draft day need to be re-calibrated to reflect this.



I'm sure that there is more (or less) to be taken from these statistical trends, but as someone who is doing a pay draft right now, I'm going to watch very carefully who I pick with my seven remaining picks.

Originally posted by Raskol:

Since we are talking about the changing landscape of stats, here are a few to keep in mind:



The number of home runs (per game) hit last year was the lowest since 1993.



The number of stolen bases (per game) was the highest since 2001.



The average average (?) was the lowest since 1992.



RBIs (again, per game) were the lowest since 1992.



Runs per game....you guessed it, the lowest since 1992.



So, plenty of Judys had good years in 2010.



Plenty of power hitters found themselves without the necessary medication to sustain previous levels, and returned to early 1990's levels.



On the pitching side:



The number of strike outs per game was the highest it has EVER been.



League-wide WHIP was the lowest since....1992.



League-wide ERA was the lowest since.....1992.



Conclusions:



1. Somebody discovered something in 1992 and plenty of ball players bought some of it.

2. Players ran out of it last year.

3. Those categories that Q and CC have been telling us to fill on draft day need to be re-calibrated to reflect this.



I'm sure that there is more (or less) to be taken from these statistical trends, but as someone who is doing a pay draft right now, I'm going to watch very carefully who I pick with my seven remaining picks. I'm blaming the umpires for for calling too many strikes! So next year, you can win with a Judy or two unless Brady Batista turns into a pusher of Balco, Canada.

Maybe they stole more bases because all the catchers sucked this year.

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Maybe they stole more bases because all the catchers sucked this year. Could be, Shawn. Certainly V-Mart did his part to inflate SB numbers. Perhaps I should look at SB success rates too.



In any case, it appears that power is at a premium and you'll need a ton of K's to compete next year.



It also appears that Brady Bautista is better than everyone else at keeping a stash.

Originally posted by Raskol:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Maybe they stole more bases because all the catchers sucked this year. Could be, Shawn. Certainly V-Mart did his part to inflate SB numbers. Perhaps I should look at SB success rates too.



In any case, it appears that power is at a premium and you'll need a ton of K's to compete next year.



It also appears that Brady Bautista is better than everyone else at keeping a stash. [/QUOTE]I started looking at my 1993 fantasy game plan.

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Raskol:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Maybe they stole more bases because all the catchers sucked this year. Could be, Shawn. Certainly V-Mart did his part to inflate SB numbers. Perhaps I should look at SB success rates too.



In any case, it appears that power is at a premium and you'll need a ton of K's to compete next year.



It also appears that Brady Bautista is better than everyone else at keeping a stash. [/QUOTE]I started looking at my 1993 fantasy game plan. [/QUOTE]Only you would still have a 1993 plan. Talk about keeping a stash!



I really thought that last year was a special year, and this analysis proves me right. The most K's per 9 IP of all time?!?!? That's amazing.



I'm going power bat, power bat, judy, judy, then 6 straight arms. That should cover it.

Originally posted by Raskol:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Raskol:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

Maybe they stole more bases because all the catchers sucked this year. Could be, Shawn. Certainly V-Mart did his part to inflate SB numbers. Perhaps I should look at SB success rates too.



In any case, it appears that power is at a premium and you'll need a ton of K's to compete next year.



It also appears that Brady Bautista is better than everyone else at keeping a stash. [/QUOTE]I started looking at my 1993 fantasy game plan. [/QUOTE]Only you would still have a 1993 plan. Talk about keeping a stash!



I really thought that last year was a special year, and this analysis proves me right. The most K's per 9 IP of all time?!?!? That's amazing.



I'm going power bat, power bat, judy, judy, then 6 straight arms. That should cover it. [/QUOTE]Sounds like a semi Pork/Seaford plan!

[/QUOTE]Sounds like a semi Pork/Seafood plan! [/QB][/quote]


Great, now I'm hungry. Lunch time here in rainy CA.

There are more Judy's, no doubt. But, they are not good Judy's for the most part.

The good ones help out in other categories. In the past, runs and average came with speed, that's not necessarily the case anymore. Heck, we can't even count on Ichiro getting us a lot of runs anymore.



The landscape has changed. The Yankees would rather have Posada's bat in the lineup while opponents steal them blind.



All this makes me think back to Brian Sabaen, in May. He said that Buster Posey could not be called up yet because of his defense. WHAT?

It's a good thing Buster's defense improved so much during that month's time that the Giants were able to get a middle of the order bat in the lineup.



Mike Napoli led the Angels in home runs despite being benched every other day because Scioscia didn't like his defense.



There doesn't seem to be a standard for catchers. It seems that each organization has their own tolerance level for defense in a catcher, and how that catcher produces offensively.



The Red Sox have gone so long without a good defensive catcher, that with Napoli's swing, he would fit beautifully in Boston, if Martinez or Beltre not be a Red Sox next year.



Pitchers do not hold runners the way they used to either, which doesn't help with the poorer quality of defensive catcher. It used to be a good cat and mouse game between pitcher and runner, now, it is advantage runner.



[ October 28, 2010, 03:56 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

You know the game has changed when Billy Beane's Oakland A's are third in the league in stolen bases. Of course, they were also third from last in Home Runs, so maybe it was Judy-by-necessity.

I predict as the power game ebbs and the running game ascends again, sb prevention will rise again. It may take a few years to get better defensive catchers back in the game. Eventually though I think it will happen as teams tire of being stolen blind not to mention, as you said, pitchers that can't hold anybody on base. I've had Gavin Floyd on several of my teams the last couple years, but if he allows a base runner the game becomes hard to watch. A.J had no chance to throw anybody out with him on the mound and several other Sox pitchers were almost as much to blame. A.J. and Castro were ok. The staff can't hold base runners. A lost art.

hey- mark buerle takes exception!

Originally posted by Vander:

I predict as the power game ebbs and the running game ascends again, sb prevention will rise again. It may take a few years to get better defensive catchers back in the game. Eventually though I think it will happen as teams tire of being stolen blind not to mention, as you said, pitchers that can't hold anybody on base. I've had Gavin Floyd on several of my teams the last couple years, but if he allows a base runner the game becomes hard to watch. A.J had no chance to throw anybody out with him on the mound and several other Sox pitchers were almost as much to blame. A.J. and Castro were ok. The staff can't hold base runners. A lost art. good points Vander. i thought i'd go ahead, pre-register, come up and see you, jack and the boys this next year.. ..be sure and play nice.

Will look forward to seing you.

Originally posted by Raskol:

Since we are talking about the changing landscape of stats, here are a few to keep in mind:



The number of home runs (per game) hit last year was the lowest since 1993.



The number of stolen bases (per game) was the highest since 2001.



The average average (?) was the lowest since 1992.



RBIs (again, per game) were the lowest since 1992.



Runs per game....you guessed it, the lowest since 1992.



So, plenty of Judys had good years in 2010.



Plenty of power hitters found themselves without the necessary medication to sustain previous levels, and returned to early 1990's levels.



On the pitching side:



The number of strike outs per game was the highest it has EVER been.



League-wide WHIP was the lowest since....1992.



League-wide ERA was the lowest since.....1992.



Conclusions:



1. Somebody discovered something in 1992 and plenty of ball players bought some of it.

2. Players ran out of it last year.

3. Those categories that Q and CC have been telling us to fill on draft day need to be re-calibrated to reflect this.



I'm sure that there is more (or less) to be taken from these statistical trends, but as someone who is doing a pay draft right now, I'm going to watch very carefully who I pick with my seven remaining picks. Liked the info, wasn't crazy about the conclusions. For one thing, how does the number of strikeouts support your steroid argument? With steroids pitchers would be throwing harder and hitters would be swinging harder. I don't buy that they make you see the ball better.



Also, I'd be careful aboiut how much I recalibrate. I buy that it's a trend but there will be some regression next year. You don't just assume it will always be the same as the year before.

Originally posted by bjoak:



Liked the info, wasn't crazy about the conclusions. For one thing, how does the number of strikeouts support your steroid argument? With steroids pitchers would be throwing harder and hitters would be swinging harder. I don't buy that they make you see the ball better.



Also, I'd be careful about how much I recalibrate. I buy that it's a trend but there will be some regression next year. You don't just assume it will always be the same as the year before. My steroid assertion was linked to the decline in overall power numbers rather than pitcher performance or K rates. I'm not a doctor, nor do I play one on TV, but I think that steroids are/were as much about helping players not break down over the course of a long season as they are/were about building muscle strength.



As for recalibrating, that is best left to each player to determine. However, if there are fewer home runs available on draft day, then true power hitters are more appealing (at least for me). Only two players hit 40+ home runs last year. One of them is likely a fluke but in any case a 40 homer player is now more valuable than in years past.



Similarly, if there are more strike outs available (and therefore needed to place well in an overall competition) then I'm going to be sure to roster quality arms in much the same way that Chicagoans vote--early and often.



I'm not sure where I'm headed with any of this but it does make for intriguing planning.

However, if there are fewer home runs available on draft day, then true power hitters are more appealing (at least for me). Well, let me just say that if you are using a set of projections, they are likely going to project players in a weighted context of their last three years. The individuals won't be downgraded because there were less homers overall last year, only on their own performance. Hence, you should plan for NFBC outcomes that are weighted for the past three years. This is a win-win--if you plan both the same and it's a down year your numbers will be lower but still end up where they're supposed to be. If you only go by last year's outcomes, your projections and your NFBC outcomes won't match up.