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As an experiment, this write up of Jonathon Sanchez will not contain one number...DOH!...Ok besides that on...uh, instance.



Most of us know that Ron Shandler has manlove for Wandy Rodriquez. Carrying it far enough to depend on Wandy (Do we really want dependence on a guy named Wandy?) to spearhead his staff in drafts last year.



It's a mistake most of us have made. We presume a pitcher will improve, again, after improving the year before. That, and we like a guy too much to begin with. It is not a good trap to be in.



That trap is set next year, in the name of Jonathon Sanchez. Sanchez had muy strikeouts and that catches the eye of fantasy players. He's improved, on a World Series winner, an instant ace! Not so fast...



Though his first name is more acceptable than Wandy, his production will be similar. Sanchez does not have the goods to step up. Folks using him as an ace next year will be disappointed.

He'll fall into place with Wandy and his two brothers, Speedy and Chi Chi, both of whom also had their moments, but were then hardly heard from again after.



Velocity was down in October.

Tiredness of throwing an extra month?

Too many pitches over the course of a full season?

An underlying injury?

An injury laying in wait?

I don't want to find out.

He is last year's Wandy. He has peaked. The time to draft him was last year, not next.



In a way, this is an analysis for both Sanchez and Rodriquez. Both have already had their best seasons, just a year apart.



While Wandy regresses in drafts the coming year to double digit (clever, eh?) rounds or so, Sanchez will be over drafted. He'll be taken as high as, uh, as high as...as high as Francisco Liriano.

And that is a number that cannot be said in this analysis or justified on draft day.



[ November 02, 2010, 05:07 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Dough: Did I read wrong, or did Wandy go excruciatingly high in your pay draft? BTW interesting posting, but other than your gut feelings, you dont really back up your assertions with facts or numbers, as you did in the other player postings.

plus, the facts are- wandy is going around 3 rounds higher than sanchez so far. being election day i wouldn't let the facts get in the way of a good story though.

Originally posted by Schwks:

Dough: Did I read wrong, or did Wandy go excruciatingly high in your pay draft? BTW interesting posting, but other than your gut feelings, you dont really back up your assertions with facts or numbers, as you did in the other player postings. It was an experiment. There are always numbers in postings to back up the author's theories and assertations. Folks that disagree throw their numbers back, in the end, a food fight with numbers results. Numbers lay sprawled on the floor, twisted and used, but in the end, what numbers come up for Sanchez NEXT YEAR, are still a manifestation (5 syllable alert! Note that, Stan!)in each drafters head.



Sometimes, I'll offer a numberless opinion on a player. Takes me back to Math class, when I could do the math in my head, but couldn't show my work.

We all know that Sanchez had a boatload of k's and bb's and that he improved his control enough to offer hope and improve his drafting position. Those that draft him at those levels will be disappointed, in my opinion.

Originally posted by headhunters:

plus, the facts are- wandy is going around 3 rounds higher than sanchez so far. being election day i wouldn't let the facts get in the way of a good story though. October is October. March is March. Allow for the hype.

Throw it back in my face if Wandy goes in the third round in March.

dan- you are the hype. with 21 million readers you alone will move these positions. the confusing part is- i think you bashed both of them- so where do they get drafted now ? maybe round 14-15? i think you bashed sanchez more than wandy- so i think he keeps going later. anyhow- where they get drafted matters little- how they perform matters a lot.

besides- that pay draft will pay off the same next december 30 or 31st as the ones done in march.

Left hander envy, maybe. Joe Sambito will like that one.

I don't consider myself the hype. I'm just a guy.

Once the ESPN guys, the Fanball guys, the magazines, and Shandler come out with how wonderful Sanchez was, and will be, I'll resemble a fly's ass on the back of a flyswatter.

Believe me, the best way to hurt me is call me an expert. You'll have to excuse me, I have to take a shower after using that word in fantasy parlance.



[ November 02, 2010, 04:49 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Originally posted by headhunters:

besides- that pay draft will pay off the same next december 30 or 31st as the ones done in march. True.

A test for me is my own list. I was working on my lists in September. The test, for me, is to see how much my lists are swayed by public sentiment.

I'll mark some players as moving up or down due to a better team, a better park, etc., but I'll be more interested in the players that did not have a lot of change to or around them over the year.

Dough,



Funny you should mention Wandy as I signed on to nominate him as my "2010 wtf player of the year"



When I owned him (1st 14 starts) 6.09 ERA & 1.71 WHIP



THEN for the remainder of the season he performs to the tune of 2.03 ERA & 1.02 WHIP



Gotta love this game.

Just an aside, I'm not doing these capsules to sway public opinion. More so to provoke more opinions.



In my opinion, by the time the ravers get done with Sanchez, he will be going in the seventh and eighth rounds of some drafts and maybe higher.



If I am wrong, and he drops down to the ninth round or so and drafters like him, it provides a great opportunity (no, not value) for those drafters.



Even after not being pleasant about Sanchez, it would not totally surprise me to see him on a team of mine. He may be the best of other evils, I don't know. I had an earlier report on Howie Kendrick that was none to kind, and he constructively fit my team in the 11th round of the pay draft. Go figure.

Sometimes the hardest person to listen to, is ourselves.

Originally posted by Cowboy Joe:

Dough,



Funny you should mention Wandy as I signed on to nominate him as my "2010 wtf player of the year"



When I owned him (1st 14 starts) 6.09 ERA & 1.71 WHIP



THEN for the remainder of the season he performs to the tune of 2.03 ERA & 1.02 WHIP



Gotta love this game. That is some pretty crazy stuff.

Like Dan Haren circa '07-'09 in reverse!