Can't hit? You're Leading off!
Posted: Sun Nov 21, 2010 3:44 am
Recently, there was a healthy debate about obp and speed in the leadoff spot. Rajai Davis, or Rajudai, in french, was the genesis of the argument with his deportation to Canada...Get it, french, Canada, aw, never mind.
Anyway, it got me thinking about leadoff guys in general. Are there many leadoff hitters who are there for their on base percentage?
Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford have hit their way out of leadoff jobs. Ramirez ranked 21st in baseball with a .378 on base percentage. Crawford's, .356.
But, driving in runs in baseball trumps setting the table. In terms of on base percentage and slugging, Rickey Weeks easily outdistanced the field. Weeks had a .366 obp and 29 homers, four more homers than power hitting Ryan Braun. If Prince Fielder is traded, there is a good chance that Weeks will find his way to the middle of the Brewers lineup.
OBP is underrated when measuring leadoff hitters. Only four leadoff hitters ranked in the top 40 of obp, and one of them, Brett Gardner, was only a part time leadoff hitter. The other three were Weeks, Andrew McCutchen, and Ichiro.
Most obp leaders are the muscle guys in the middle of the lineup. Some, like Dunn, Teixeira, and Adrian Gonzalez are picky. Some, are like Pujols, Cabrera, and Votto, who pitchers like to pitch around.
Looking at the top 40 obp'ers, there were only five players, who failed to hit 15 home runs. Mauer, Daric Barton, Gardner, Nick Markakis, and Ichiro. Only Gardner and Ichiro were leadoff hitters.
Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis, Nyjer Morgan, Elvis Andrus, and Michael Bourn are typical leadoff hitters of today. All possess great speed. All possess pedestrian on base percentage numbers. It's likely to stay that way. Most leadoff hitters do not 'work' a walk. Rather, they are mistakes by the pitcher. These hitters provide little threat of the extra base hit. Pitchers would rather 'give in' to them on a 3-1 pitch rather than walk them. For them, a walk and stolen base IS their extra base hit.
Major League Managers like to see speed at the top of the lineup. It's tradition. Does that 'tradition' translate to winning? Probably not. I'd like to see more Managers think outside the box when putting together a lineup. Especially in the American League, where it is more a revolvment of nine hitters. Instead of thinking speed first, think, who would I rather see hit more during a game, Corey Patterson or Nick Markakis?
An interesting sidelight for me this off season is to see what the St. Louis Cardinals do with the top two spots in their lineup. They need two Daric Barton's to hit in front of Pujols and Holliday. Last year, for some reason, their heads were turned by Felipe Lopez :rolleyes:
Speed is NOT a requirement here!
Maybe Ken Macha should be hired.
For fantasy, most leadoff hitters are judys and are taken in later rounds when speed becomes a problem for some rosters.
Jose Reyes, McCutchen, and Weeks will most likely be the first selected to rosters next March. By September, there is a chance that all three will have hit themselves down the lineup.
They may become 'too good' to be leadoff hitters.
Maybe hitters such as Weeks and McCutchen, hitters who instill a little fear in pitchers, should be called 'lead on' hitters, while the others can keep the 'lead off' mantra.
[ November 22, 2010, 01:00 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
Anyway, it got me thinking about leadoff guys in general. Are there many leadoff hitters who are there for their on base percentage?
Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford have hit their way out of leadoff jobs. Ramirez ranked 21st in baseball with a .378 on base percentage. Crawford's, .356.
But, driving in runs in baseball trumps setting the table. In terms of on base percentage and slugging, Rickey Weeks easily outdistanced the field. Weeks had a .366 obp and 29 homers, four more homers than power hitting Ryan Braun. If Prince Fielder is traded, there is a good chance that Weeks will find his way to the middle of the Brewers lineup.
OBP is underrated when measuring leadoff hitters. Only four leadoff hitters ranked in the top 40 of obp, and one of them, Brett Gardner, was only a part time leadoff hitter. The other three were Weeks, Andrew McCutchen, and Ichiro.
Most obp leaders are the muscle guys in the middle of the lineup. Some, like Dunn, Teixeira, and Adrian Gonzalez are picky. Some, are like Pujols, Cabrera, and Votto, who pitchers like to pitch around.
Looking at the top 40 obp'ers, there were only five players, who failed to hit 15 home runs. Mauer, Daric Barton, Gardner, Nick Markakis, and Ichiro. Only Gardner and Ichiro were leadoff hitters.
Juan Pierre, Rajai Davis, Nyjer Morgan, Elvis Andrus, and Michael Bourn are typical leadoff hitters of today. All possess great speed. All possess pedestrian on base percentage numbers. It's likely to stay that way. Most leadoff hitters do not 'work' a walk. Rather, they are mistakes by the pitcher. These hitters provide little threat of the extra base hit. Pitchers would rather 'give in' to them on a 3-1 pitch rather than walk them. For them, a walk and stolen base IS their extra base hit.
Major League Managers like to see speed at the top of the lineup. It's tradition. Does that 'tradition' translate to winning? Probably not. I'd like to see more Managers think outside the box when putting together a lineup. Especially in the American League, where it is more a revolvment of nine hitters. Instead of thinking speed first, think, who would I rather see hit more during a game, Corey Patterson or Nick Markakis?
An interesting sidelight for me this off season is to see what the St. Louis Cardinals do with the top two spots in their lineup. They need two Daric Barton's to hit in front of Pujols and Holliday. Last year, for some reason, their heads were turned by Felipe Lopez :rolleyes:
Speed is NOT a requirement here!
Maybe Ken Macha should be hired.
For fantasy, most leadoff hitters are judys and are taken in later rounds when speed becomes a problem for some rosters.
Jose Reyes, McCutchen, and Weeks will most likely be the first selected to rosters next March. By September, there is a chance that all three will have hit themselves down the lineup.
They may become 'too good' to be leadoff hitters.
Maybe hitters such as Weeks and McCutchen, hitters who instill a little fear in pitchers, should be called 'lead on' hitters, while the others can keep the 'lead off' mantra.
[ November 22, 2010, 01:00 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]