Value Snafu

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:01 am

I'm criticized for talking real baseball more than fantasy baseball in some pm's.

So, with that in mind, I'll let you in on a current draft and some of my thoughts...

I am currently in the midst of a CBS Draft with a lot of NFBC folks. Todd, Perry, Ryan, Greg Morgan, and others.We have just started the 20th round of an NFBC rules league.

Now, all veteran drafters have drafted a team that they can turn their nose up at, even while the draft is still ongoing. For me, this team is smellier than having old Aunt Ruth over for anchovie sandwiches.

My mistake was 'value'. A cursed word for me. When we are drafting 'value', we are actually drafting a player that WE think is of more use than other drafters.

In reality, the 14 other drafters may know the 'value' better than yourself.

When players say, 'I had so and so fall to me', well, sometimes there is a reason why so and so fell to them.

The term 'sleeper' is slowly fading into the sunset (thankfully), 'value' has, for the most part, replaced it. In this case, 'value' coupled with 'positionality', to make this draft particularly stinky.

Drafting at number 10, I drafted a bopper at number one. Number two is usually a bopper or power/speed guy for me, but Roy Halladay was available and I took him. All is good, I've taken pitchers early before and it works well.

In the third, I took a power/speed guy. I am cruising. I've got my bopper, the supposed best pitcher in baseball and a power/speed guy.

And this is where the wheels come off.

In the fourth round Victor Martinez is still available. Hey, I'm not much for taking catchers early, but the 'value' was too much to pass.

My team now stands at two guys I like and two players that were 'too good to pass on'.If I had stopped there, I feel I could have righted the ship. But, I decided to do it one more time.

Round five and Brian McCann is still on the Board. I have done three drafts prior to this and Halladay, Martinez, and McCann were all long gone before these rounds. Maybe the drafters in this draft did not like taking catchers early, understandable, it is usually a trait of mine too.

I took McCann. I knew as soon as I took him that it wasn't MY PICK, it was the draft Boards pick. A pick that was made for me by 14 other drafters.

A value pick. The dreaded value pick.

The short sighted will say, 'What is he bitchin about? He got Halladay, Martinez, and McCann at bargain rates!

Here is the problem. Although I have the best pitcher in baseball and two of the best catchers, I will be playing 'catch up' the rest of the draft.

True, my catching numbers should beat most other teams in the league, but catchers numbers do not compare with the big bopping of outfielders or first basemen, who went off the boards while taking Halladay, Martinez, and McCann. Not to mention speed, which most likely will have to be made up for by taking Judys who offer no power.

Also, by taking two catchers early, I've gypped myself out of infield positions. Not only will I be chasing numbers left on the Boards by taking two catchers early, but I will be chasing the very thing that drafting two catchers early should assist in, positionality. I have one first baseman and one outfielder. I now will be taking second and third tier infielders for the remainder of the draft.

If Shawn Childs were dead, he would be turning over in his grave. After FIVE rounds, I've barely achieved the power part of 75/75, the speed, severely lagging 75 stolen bases.

Now, every pick for me is scrutinized longer. Since, I've overdrafted pitching a bit to get an advantage on that side of the ledger. The hitters will be drafted with 'value be damned, give me a high ceiling' in mind. Some of these higher ceiling players will have to hit in order for me to have a chance at winning this league.

I will look forward to making every week lineups for this team, along with faab. The challenge is there.

Besides the Main, which always come first for me, this team will get a lot of attention.

I posted this as an honest look back at a current draft.

What are your thoughts?

Am I wrong?

Were the Halladay, Martinez, and McCann picks ok?

Some?

What would have been your strategy after the fifth round?

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:18 am

Dan, I have no problem with your Halladay & Victor picks and would be very happy to start a draft with my 2 & 4 picks going in that direction.

I probably would have stayed away from McCann with Victor already in the fold, even with the value. If I'm going 1st catcher that early, I'm probably looking for a last few rounds breakout candidate for the 2nd catcher spot.

As far as moving forward, I think a lot depends on who the big bopper & power/speed guy are that you rostered and the positions they play. A big bopper with 50 HR upside obviously gives you more options than one with 35 HR upside. If those rostered play 3B and 2B, your options are different than if they are a 1B and OF (my guess is that's what you've got stabled thus far).

Good luck with the rest of your draft. Should be interesting to see how it plays out.

Glenn

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Mon Dec 27, 2010 5:54 am

It's a great writeup Dan and a great dilemma to debate. I agree with Glenn, I would have passed on McCann at that point. Honestly, I think we are all faced with value decisions with each pick and sometimes we have to stay away from value to stick with our plan of reaching our stated stat goals. If you saw a SP drop to you each round as a value pick and felt you had to take him because he was the best "value" out there you'd never accumulate enough hitting stats to contend for a title. Same thing here with your two catchers. You have two of the best catchers and you achieved great value, but at the end of the day did it lead to better overall stats than 14 other teams? It all depends, but I think it will be tough for you.

But what do I know? I'm still in football mode anyway. GO PACK GO!!

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Dec 27, 2010 8:53 am

Is this a faab league dough? Regardless, I think that's an excellent start. Playing catch up? Erase that thought. While others are grabbing C's in the 10th and 20th rd you're getting an excellent SP or a Cuddyer type and this year's Pods or Gardner. Those grabbing two mid 20 C's are whiffing on one and falling WAY behind you in those slots. No flies on that start dough.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Mon Dec 27, 2010 9:03 am

Dan,

I think taking 2 "value" picks was ok but taking that third "value" pick in the first 5 rounds would make me feel too far behind in the batting categories (except maybe batting avg). Just go out and find the next CarGo in rd 6 and the next Bautista in round 25 and you've regained your edge!

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Mon Dec 27, 2010 9:03 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Is this a faab league dough? Regardless, I think that's an excellent start. Playing catch up? Erase that thought. While others are grabbing C's in the 10th and 20th rd you're getting an excellent SP or a Cuddyer type and this year's Pods or Gardner. Those grabbing two mid 20 C's are whiffing on one and falling WAY behind you in those slots. No flies on that start dough. You gonna listen to this guy Dan? What has he ever accomplished in this sport? Oh yeah, I forgot....

Glenn

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Dec 27, 2010 9:13 am

ya dan- there could be 1000 guys posting that they don't like that start- but if the big Q likes it- who cares what everyone else thinks?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Dec 27, 2010 9:34 am

It is a FAAB league, almost if not identical to standard 15 team NFBC except no Friday/DL.

To contrast, my first 5 were

Longoria

Reyes

Phillips

Josh Johnson

Granderson

I actually went C/C at 9/10 with Napoli/Posada. if I end up with the second best duo, I'll be happy

Spartacus · Post by **Spartacus** » Mon Dec 27, 2010 11:28 am

This may be another one of those cases Dan, insofar as what appears to be theoretically bad, or unconventional, turns out to be a great move in practice. At the end of the day, the only question of relevance is whether your entire team as drafted is close enough to the numbers you'll need, that FAAB can take you the rest of the way. This is true no matter when you draft, but in these early drafts, come that first FAAB transaction period there's always a boatload of talent available that everyone has missed. Make sure to bring your checkbook

P.S. All things considered, you could have drafted Dunn

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Dec 27, 2010 12:16 pm

Originally posted by Spartacus:

P.S. All things considered, you could have drafted Dunn

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Wed Dec 29, 2010 8:34 am

Dan,

Great post, and continued thanks for driving the baseball talk through these long, dry months. I think that your posting would have been aided by revealing your picks (I also see no downside to doing so).

We have quibbled over the term 'value" before. When I use the term value, I am referring to a player whom I believe will provide numbers consistent with my own expectations of a player taken in an earlier draft slot.

I think that we can all agree that the greater number of guys that we draft who can outperform expectations of that slot or round, the greater chances of success(combined of course with FAAB pickups, luck, injury etc)

The numerical expectation in a given round is offset by eligibility. For example, a 300 30 100 from a SS might be worth a round or two higher then the same numbers from an OF.

When I look at the guys being selected in the 4th and 5th rds where you went VMart-McAnn, I see your average numbers coming close with exception of SBs. At the same time, with those two, modest and within the realm of possibility increases in output for the either would bump each up a round or maybe two. For example if VMArt went to 300 26-110 90 runs, is he not returning numbers for which he could be drafted in the 2nd round? And are those numbers reasonable to hope for (if not project)?

You left your self short with SBS exiting the first 5 rds, but since 180ish sbs puts you in the game, that would seem to still be doable, even without your "Judy", especially since you have already filled the two slots wherein you get virtually no SBs.

I have little success under my belt, but it would seem to me that your team is not doomed by your first 5 picks.

Good luck...make sure to post how you end up.

Doug